I Called In Sick Today

[El Guapo 8]

JJJ/Wang,If one were to want to run some sort of ROI simulator in excel and find out things like risk of ruin, std dev or roi, etc. Stuff like that, how would one go about doing it?

I would use excel, but that's just me.

[Napa_Don 688]

I would use excel, but that's just me.

Oh I get it, that's very clever.

[speedz99 145]

Good Clinical Skills rotations today. I got to help tip a cow and took down a 250lb sheep by myself. She was a fighter, but I ended up kicking her fuzzy white ass all over that farm.

[LadyGrey 6]

Good Clinical Skills rotations today. I got to help tip a cow and took down a 250lb sheep by myself. She was a fighter, but I ended up kicking her fuzzy white ass all over that farm.

Someday I'd really like to help deliver a baby calf, you know, like that CNN reporter did (

).

[Nikki_N 17]

Good Clinical Skills rotations today. I got to help tip a cow and took down a 250lb sheep by myself. She was a fighter, but I ended up kicking her fuzzy white ass all over that farm.

I thought cow tipping was frowned upon?sidenote: I really like the show Jane and the Dragon.

[Nikki_N 17]

"It's never alright to hurt someone's feelings for a laugh, particularly if that someone wields a spikey bowling ball."

[speedz99 145]

I thought cow tipping was frowned upon?

We're veterinary students...we do whatever the fuck we want. Biiiiiiiitch.

[Nikki_N 17]

We're veterinary students...we do whatever the fuck we want. Biiiiiiiitch.

Gotcha!

[brvheart 1,752]

I kind of messed up the first graph because speedz wasn't on it (he's off the charts!).Updated with some names:

I feel like I'm back at recess. Except the roles are reversed, and the nerdy dorks are picking on the awesome* kids.*e.g. brvheart.

[JoeyJoJo 18]

JJJ/Wang,If one were to want to run some sort of ROI simulator in excel and find out things like risk of ruin, std dev or roi, etc. Stuff like that, how would one go about doing it?Edit: For example, if I could enter a sample size, and expected ROI and it would run x amount of simulations and then show a variety of stats. In sit and go's.

Macroooooooos!Alternatively: macros, dude, macros.

[Napa_Don 688]

Macroooooooos!Alternatively: macros, dude, macros.

Is there like a how-to site for this kind of stuff. Also, I don't know how to do any of the maths necessary.

[strategy 4]

we use the data table and solver in my modeling class. completely absurd how Microsoft shipped Excel with those two features implemented as shoddily as they are. each homework assignment is filled with explanations of how to get around the bugs.

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

So which side is SuitedAces on?

RAGE!

[JoeyJoJo 18]

Is there like a how-to site for this kind of stuff. Also, I don't know how to do any of the maths necessary.

All the calculations can be found via google. For instance, I googled “calculate risk of ruin” and found this: 2.718281828^(-2*WinRate*Bankroll/(StandardDeviation^2))I’m not sure what you’re trying to do here. You can run simulations based on your real stats, but if you have real stats, then you can just calculate all that stuff off of those numbers. What is it you want to accomplish by running simulations that you can’t do by math?

[strategy 4]

I have yet to use macros, but the analysis toolpak add-in has a way to calculate the stdev and a bunch of other hard-core statistical analysis stuff. used that for a class once.I am not an excel whiz by any means. bizzle can help though.

[Napa_Don 688]

All the calculations can be found via google. For instance, I googled “calculate risk of ruin” and found this: 2.718281828^(-2*WinRate*Bankroll/(StandardDeviation^2))I’m not sure what you’re trying to do here. You can run simulations based on your real stats, but if you have real stats, then you can just calculate all that stuff off of those numbers. What is it you want to accomplish by running simulations that you can’t do by math?

I...don't...really...know.I kind of have an idea in my head, but I don't even know if it is feasible or if it would even be meaningful. For example, if something that based on the % of finishing positions, I could run a bunch of simulations to show ITM streaks, OTM streaks, range of ROI, range of downswings, etc. Looking at this seems like a lot of math and monte carlo sims(I'm not very familiar with these?) and I don't know if it'd be worth the effort.

[JoeyJoJo 18]

I have yet to use macros, but the analysis toolpak add-in has a way to calculate the stdev and a bunch of other hard-core statistical analysis stuff. used that for a class once.I am not an excel whiz by any means. bizzle can help though.

I don't even know what the analysis toolpak add-in is, but: =STDEV(DataRange)

[JoeyJoJo 18]

Looking at this seems like a lot of math and monte carlo sims(I'm not very familiar with these?) and I don't know if it'd be worth the effort.

I think you just cost me several hours of excel tinkering with my off topic spreadsheet.Because I found this: Monte Carlo in ExcelAnd now I must improve upon my s/s.

[strategy 4]

I don't even know what the analysis toolpak add-in is, but: =STDEV(DataRange)

enable it, there's a ton of really awesome statistical things in there. one of the projects was finding out the relation between carbs, fat, and calories by using whatever food/drink we could find. we used the t-test paired two sample for means function in data analysis IIRC.edit: pretty sure we used regression for that one, thinking about the problem some more...

[timwakefield 68]

I am so out of the loop on this thread, but anyways, here's something amusing/sad/kind of cool:

This is the funeral of Private Kevin Elliott who was killed during a battle with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The ceremony was held in Dundee, Scotland. His best friend Barry Delaney wore a green dress to honor a long time agreement that if one of them dies, the other has to wear a bright green dress to the funeral.Barry said:“Kev was like my brother – we would have done anything for each other.We said that whoever died first, the other one had to wear a pink dress with green spots to the funeral – and we shook on it. It was mainly his idea and the more I think about it, I’m sure Kevin knew something was going to happen.I looked for the exact dress but couldn’t find one anywhere.I eventually picked up the green one in Primark and bought the pink pop socks to make it look even sillier. It’s what Kev would have wanted.Kev told his whole family about the pact, so I couldn’t back out. I had a word with him at the graveside and asked if he liked the color – I’m sure I could hear laughter coming out of the ground.Kev was a true hero and someone I’m proud to call my best mate.”

[strategy 4]

.

[TommyGavin81 0]

Oh, hi there TommyGavin81. I'm not sure our paths have crossed before today. I think somebody once wondered if you were an alter ego of me. (You're not, but you probably knew that already.)Anyway, keep the stories coming. I do enjoy a good story.

Hi there JoeyJoJo! Yes in my brief posting spree last summer you were on one of your many hiatuses, hiatusii? I don't know the plural version. But I was a large fan of you in my lurking days. I have many PM's of people telling me they know who I really am which was weird until I figured out they thought I was you which was an enormous boost for my sad ego.So I got a hand job the other night from my girl. I have always hated them. I remember reading TB's Valentines story many moons ago that ended in the disappointment of a hand job. She must take classes or something because somehow she managed to be better at it than me! I almost let her finish me then I figured she would be mad at me because I was way too tired and I had to work in the morning so there would be no quick turnaround for her. I don't know why I bring this up but it's what was on my mind as I was adding this reply. Speedzie, pick the girl you would marry in a heart beat. But not before having fun with the bisexual stripper. Were getting up there in age and opportunities like that will disappear forever. I don't know the details as I'm not caught up on the last 9 months so I may be just talking out of my ass.I know nothing of TB's issue so I won't comment but I want backstory and may search in the archives. I just remember me seeing my situation as similar to yours way back when and you freaking out saying you were ending it immediately with Maggie that night. Sal, you a country boy through and through. And a ginormous faggot. So we had a call last night at work. The family dog got riled up and bit a 14 year old in the sack. The kid wasn't even crying. I would've had to be carried out on a stretcher. The mom didn't even want him transported to the hospital. So I felt his balls and they felt normal and weren't swollen so I signed him off. But I walked with a limp the rest of the night when I thought about it.

[Tactical Bear 3]

JJJ/Wang,If one were to want to run some sort of ROI simulator in excel and find out things like risk of ruin, std dev or roi, etc. Stuff like that, how would one go about doing it?Edit: For example, if I could enter a sample size, and expected ROI and it would run x amount of simulations and then show a variety of stats. In sit and go's.

You can do most of this with simple probability and statistics. If you are a player with a bankroll of 200 buyins, a true winrate of .15 buyins/sit-and-go, and a cash-rate of 40%, you can solve for things like risk of ruin, the probability that you'll be +100 buyins or better over 300 sit-and-goes, the probability that you'll be down 50 buyins or worse over 100 sit-and-goes, etc. Simulation will make it less accurate, and more cumbersome. STATS IS THE ANSWER.Also, I now want to kill myself because I just read that Monte Carlo Simulation thing and I've been wasting... so much space and time. I need to learn things for real instead of just hacking together nonsense that barely gets the job done. I am a failure.

[speedz99 145]

Math! Spreadsheets! Testicles!What a catchup!

[JubilantLankyLad 1,957]

wait wait wait...testicles?guess i'm going to have to reread