My Wsop Main Event Bust Out Hand

[ObeyTheDog 0]

Obey--now that I've taken the time to read your looooong first response, I have to say I am muy impressed. That is some pretty coo advanced thinking there, and once more this average player is humbled. Thanks for the post.

np and ty. I can't snip my thoughts, so my response to anything poker-related is going to be long, because I can't simply "insta"-anything these days. I wish I could say all this applied online, but it's just a whole different game and most of the time, you can't play this way and survive with the blinds and starting stacks. But still, it applies to endgame, and to deep stack confrontations. But it's not nearly as effective being able to feel out the hand sitting at a table staring at your opponent. In this case, the opponent most likely had a Q. I get the feeling that PMJ had a tight image and that this wasn't a move, but protecting against a big draw. It's hard to say really, but I'd prefer a non-draw heavy board to make this hand easier to figure out. Probably KQ or QJ, but even a hand as strong as AQ would play it this way if he felt vulnerable. The only hands I can rule out are TT or QT.To give you an example, I used to play extremely big stack/big bluff explosion poker online. Aggressive blow-up poker to the nth degree. And it worked. Last year was my best year online and it led to some big results in chopping the partypoker million and in the glory days of pokerroom/fcp. And since I changed (and the fields have changed), it's more of a struggle yes, but the results are more consistent. And making the transition to liveplay, well...this style just worked much better live than online. So now I'm trying to find the right balance and make the right adjustments. And in the end, that's what it's all about, adjustments.

[Fade2241 0]

I'm pretty sure I play the hand just like you did. I've busted out of a few tourneys at my local casinos where the buy in is a lot to me ($100+ 2 rebuys) in situations like this and I still can't fold. 2/3 times in a similiar spot like this the person had a flush draw and hit. The other time I had K9 on a KKJ board and the original raiser had AK. NH GG.So, I think you're ahead of a Laggy player a majority of the time here but then again it's a $10k buy-in and I have absolutely zero exp in those. I'm looking forward to seeing what he held.

[Footballguru 0]

IMO he has a big draw here like 80% of the time, and a hand that beats you 15% of the time. and aa/kk/jj 5%.Rough estimates, that if your playing to FT, lead to a call.Unless you get a read on him that he wants a call.

[ObeyTheDog 0]

I'd do an analysis on my WSOP bustout hand...but the thread wouldn't be very insightful.Blinds: 3k-6k (1k).Folds to me on the button. K9. Shove 90k to win 18k against the two tightest players in the world who would even fold AQ in this spot.Run into two Queens in the BB (who slow squeeze the first queen and said he was only calling if the other one matched)gg.

[cubsfan44 0]

I'd do an analysis on my WSOP bustout hand...but the thread wouldn't be very insightful.Blinds: 3k-6k (1k).Folds to me on the button. K9. Shove 90k to win 18k against the two tightest players in the world who would even fold AQ in this spot.Run into two Queens in the BB (who slow squeeze the first queen and said he was only calling if the other one matched)gg.

I fold there....DONE.....what do I win? (sw)

[irishguy 14]

The fact that this would be an ideal board to bluff at as hero makes villains range far to wide for us to be folding. He knows you are getting fed up with him raising your blinds so you check raise him knowing he's c-betting regularly and this flop is far more likely to have to some extent hit a tight players calling hand than an aggro's raising hand, I think he's shoving with a much larger range then a queen/monster draw. I'm not sure if that makes sense to anyone else but it sounded clear in my head. If I'm villain I'd put you on a draw or ten moreso than a queen as I'd expect a queen to lead the flop.

[takemychips 0]

We need more threads like these, some of the analysis and stuff going on here is really insightful/helpful.Ty guys.

This is thread of the day for sure... loaded with great posts.FWIW I put the villain on KcJc ... and he rivers a royal (obviously).

[NoSup4U 0]

We need more threads like these, some of the analysis and stuff going on here is really insightful/helpful.Ty guys.

We should make a forum just for stuff like this. We could call it Poker Strategy or something ;)Mark

[Royal_Tour 0]

This is thread of the day for sure... loaded with great posts.FWIW I put the villain on KcJc ... and he rivers a royal (obviously).

really?that brings up a whole diff topic IMO. If he held Kc,Jc would he push or would he smooth call? does he put PMJ on a Q or a hand that would call the all in 3-bet? or would he try and draw more value out on the turn with such a big draw

[Bonzium 0]

without a doubt in my mind i am going with akclubs here...i think its the only flush draw one could instapush without at least thinking about risking it all on a flush draw for a moment at least.

[StupidKid 0]

We should make a forum just for stuff like this. We could call it Poker Strategy or something ;)Mark

Because every thread in strat gets as much attention/detailed analysis as this one?

[Ex_Matt 0]

I'm guessing he had J 9 and rivered an 8??Please reveal soon!!.

[TB17 0]

We should make a forum just for stuff like this. We could call it Poker Strategy or something ;)Mark

That's a good idea, someone get on that.Timing tells obv means he has a draw Seriously tho, I think it's pretty obv that he has a draw, there is no way KQ and KK shove, it's possible he has AQ. If h e has QT or something, well, pray for the chop.I might have to agree tho with the GREAT PHIL HELLMUTH, that if you really felt you had that big of an advantage over the field, that a fold is probably correct. A player like me doesnt have an edge on the field so I'm gonna snap call that and pray that I fade the outs, or hide and never show up again if I'm drawing dead. A player of your calibur might be capable of laying it down.If I had to put him on a hand, I'm gonna say J9c or AcRagc.BTW if I'm Daniel, I definately put him on a Q about 75% of the time, although I'd think tricky nits would lead out, but how many tricky nits do you know? :)If I had Q9d in this spot, I'd lead/call, or c/c, I don't like a C/R because the only hand you are getting out are hands that you crush. You want to keep hands that you crush in, and keep the pot really small. If he had a hand like 99 you want him to fire twice.

[zimmer4141 0]

I think the person that has made the most sense out of this whole discussion is Obey. PMJ, I think what sucks about this spot is that it shouldn't be tough. You should know what you're doing if he shoves before you checkraise.The main reason I hate a checkraise is because he's shoving or folding almost all of his hands here. If he shoves, we're in this insanely tough spot that we find ourself. If he folds, we win the same amount we would by check/calling. To be honest, about 2/3 of the deck isn't terrible for us on the turn, and we get to keep the pot small.Here are his ranges IMHO.Preflop- ATCLeading the flop- ATCShoving- 95% Qx, TT, Axcc, KJcc, K9cc, J9cc. 5% AA, KK, KJ, Tx, Air.Check/calling keeps the pot small, we win the same amount of chips when he has nothing (assuming he's not gonna double-barrel this board with air), and we lose far less when he has us beat. As Obey said, a scare card for us can be a scare card for him and lead to a much cheaper showdown against a better Q.As always, I didn't explain it that well, but I think my message gets across.

[Coyote18 0]

Great thread. I also agree that he has to be on a big draw here to instapush but that's bueen covered. Since it's obvious you want some additional analysis, let's consider you check called, like what has been brought up. What is the turn and how do you play it then. I think that analysis is important, i.e., if you fill up (which obviously you didn't.... most likely) your decision becomes easier. If the Ac comes, you may be able to get off the hand easier.Although some may think it's not worth it since you made the decision, I think it's vital to think how you there is any way you could have got away from the situation.Thanks for posting this....

[Haz 0]

Villain has TT. After you check raised he suspected you were strong or had a monster draw. He decided he would go all in because if you have a Q you are probably calling and if you fold he doesn't have to worry about your draws.If you don't have a Q and were just bluffing then he probably won't get anymore money out of you anyway so might as well push and hope you do have it.

[TB17 0]

I'd do an analysis on my WSOP bustout hand...but the thread wouldn't be very insightful.Blinds: 3k-6k (1k).Folds to me on the button. K9. Shove 90k to win 18k against the two tightest players in the world who would even fold AQ in this spot.Run into two Queens in the BB (who slow squeeze the first queen and said he was only calling if the other one matched)gg.

You can standard raise/fold that, just saying

[RDog 0]

Given the Villain I can't find a fold here. I mean, if we aren't getting it in against him here we might as well never play a pot with him. We have been looking for this spot all day, certainly tough, given the action but he is relying on people laying hands down like yours by him applying pressure. I fully think it is entirely possible he is overplaying AA and KK here and he is putting you on a draw. I also think Q7 is just as likely as AQ. We are all putting him on a big draw given that we hold a queen, he might be doing the same with you. Sick spot for sure but I think you have to call.

[astros11ss 0]

the only reason i wouldn't snap call this is if i decided to say a short prayer about holding before calling. i can't believe people even want to consider folding, and if you're not fist-pump stacking off here, don't c-r, cuz he is shoving SO many hands we are way ahead of

[PMJackson21 0]

the only reason i wouldn't snap call this is if i decided to say a short prayer about holding before calling. i can't believe people even want to consider folding, and if you're not fist-pump stacking off here, don't c-r, cuz he is shoving SO many hands we are way ahead of

Heh that was pretty much JC's analysis.

[Coyote18 0]

One more thought....The more I think about this, I think you can fold this hand. If he has a hand like Q6 and sucked out, that's obviously a mistake but I don't think we would be discussing this if it was just a suckout story (if it is, i'm disappointed)The main argument against the fold is that "you're not playing to win" I have always despised that comment. I understand the logic but playing to win also includes giving yourself the best chance to stay alive given your situation. Just the fact that you are still in the tournament opposed to being out is "playing to win". Obviously there are situation like being short-stacked or committed that go against this, but I don't think that playing to win needs to be synonomous to always calling when you have the best hand.

[bigbadbeat 0]

i have to agree with the above poster, seems to me that the problem with this hand is the lack of information you had when the money went in.....i read the first couple of pages earlier today, and the last few this evening, and until obeythedog posted his response i could not fathom how it was practical to get that information. The decision you made was correct, i think, given what you knew, felt and perceived at the moment. This is not one of those hands that has a "correct" play. You were there, you made the call and i think that that decision is fine.If you want to revisit the strategy you used to get there, that might be worth a look. According to Obey's analysis, it is. Don't worry about the final decision it was rationally thought out, and a good call given what you knew, but how narrow have you made the villians range here.Fine post and good arguments.

[Merby 3]

I'd do an analysis on my WSOP bustout hand...but the thread wouldn't be very insightful.Blinds: 3k-6k (1k).Folds to me on the button. K9. Shove 90k to win 18k against the two tightest players in the world who would even fold AQ in this spot.Run into two Queens in the BB (who slow squeeze the first queen and said he was only calling if the other one matched)gg.

You can standard raise/fold that, just saying

His M is only 5 here, I like the pushing allin especially when both blinds are nits.

[PMJackson21 0]

Just to be clear about my motives posting this, I'm not looking for justification for calling or an ego boost etc. I've already gotten input privately from people whom I respect, so it's not like I'm looking for posts like Bk's. I just thought it was a very interesting hand on all accounts (how it played out, how it could have played out if either of us plays it differently, etc) and would spur a lot of good discussion. Believe me when I say that I've replayed the hand thousands of times in my head with different actions on both of our parts. :)Carry on.

[tskillz187 0]

I love reading your sig.Back to discussion.