My Wsop Main Event Bust Out Hand

[Royal_Tour 0]

This is a very tech spot.i like the c/r but when he shoves on top, I hate Q,9. on that board. hate it with a passion.I dont really have a narrow range to put villain on, but i'm pretty sure i would have to fold in this spot. I think at best we're a 60/40. You have plenty of chips to play with, and a good read on the table. Too much risk IMO

[PMJackson21 0]

Hey PMJ,I would approach this hand a little differently.Snip

Good analysis Obey, both leading and check calling are options that I contemplated at the time, and many times since. Glad you focused on the alternative ways to play the hand on the flop rather then just the call once I got shoved on. Knowing the results (not only his hand, but the turn and river) give me the ability to have a decent idea of how it would have played out if I did check/call, so an outsider's look is always helpful.

[Potsie P 0]

lol stallaments.villain's holding, plz. kthx.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Good analysis Obey, both leading and check calling are options that I contemplated at the time, and many times since. Glad you focused on the alternative ways to play the hand on the flop rather then just the call once I got shoved on. Knowing the results (not only his hand, but the turn and river) give me the ability to have a decent idea of how it would have played out if I did check/call, so an outsider's look is always helpful.

I thought about the check call option, but there is a lot that can hit this turn that gives villain waaay more outs/draws. or made hands.if u call the 10k, do u check/call the turn?

[RDog 0]

I know hindsight is 20/20, but how can you call there? Why risk your tournamentlife with such a suspect hand and board? You can find better spots to get the money in than the likely 60/40 70/30 favorite you were.

LOL

[HoosierAlum 0]

] I would guess with a c/r here you almost never have a queen, and that he could be shoving naked tens, draws, big draws, JJ/KK/AA, and random air occasionally (but rarely). If you are playing to win at all, you have to call here everytime.

I def disagree w/this. I think Pat has a Q a good % of the time when he c/r here, and even if he doesnt, it looks like a Q to his opponent since he was playing so rocky.The main difference between online players and live players (and this is a generalization but holds true often) is that live players are sooooooo much less aggressive. Even a 'laggy' live player pales in comparison to your avg. standard online mtter. I agree that A10,JJ,KK,AA are in his range, but I think its a pretty small part of his range. I think he has random air ~.001% of the time. Obvi the biggest part of his range is Qs and big draws, and the reason I think the decision is so close is b/c I believe the guy would prob shove with worse queens as well as better ones. Online I'm snap calling for sure, but its much much closer in this situation than you are making it out to be.

[dapokerbum 0]

I thought about the check call option, but there is a lot that can hit this turn that gives villain waaay more outs/draws. or made hands.if u call the 10k, do u check/call the turn?

Obviously with anything in poker...it depends.

[ObeyTheDog 0]

Good analysis Obey, both leading and check calling are options that I contemplated at the time, and many times since. Glad you focused on the alternative ways to play the hand on the flop rather then just the call once I got shoved on. Knowing the results (not only his hand, but the turn and river) give me the ability to have a decent idea of how it would have played out if I did check/call, so an outsider's look is always helpful.

NP, I've just adapted the fine-art of being a calling station. Try it, it's the new maniac style of poker and if you enjoy tough decisions 50% of the time, lots of action, and call-to-steals as well as endless flops and turns (almost every pot seems to go to a turn, because nobody believes me on the flop, and I almost never fold heads up on the flop, haha). It's sick, but it really works for me and is perfect for how I want to play. I hate explosion big-pot big bluff poker. I think small bet, small bluff, make people earn their pot poker and make mistakes is much more satisfying and effective.

[mtdesmoines 3]

Holy cow at some of this analysis. PMJ- I don't want to sound like an ***, but I think a big part of you knows that calling this shove is absolutely the correct play.[/b] If you were to really look at the range of an overaggro player on a draw heavy, pair on the board flop, it would be very wide. I mean, everybody seems to think that the guy "knows" you have a queen and is shoving accordingly. I would guess with a c/r here you almost never have a queen, and that he could be shoving naked tens, draws, big draws, JJ/KK/AA, and random air occasionally (but rarely). If you are playing to win at all, you have to call here everytime.

I don't think an aggro player shoves a draw on a paired board, especially when a self-confessed nit has shown significant interest. If I'm the villain and I'm thinking about drawing, I have to think that a healthy portion of cards I need to make my hand also have the potential to boat up the hero. A paired board on the flop is just poison for draws. If my draw hits on the river and it pairs the board, I fear that a lot less. I still believe hero called drawing thin (against TTTQQ ... QQQk ... QQQa) or virtually non-existant (against QQQTT). I know it's easy to say we'd all push, but if it was me, I'd really have to think about it. If I were hero, I'd seriously have to weigh still being in the game with 75 BB, sniffing payday. If villain is pushing draws into paired boards, he's going to pay us off over the course of a day at some point. This hand IS just trips. It IS possible to dump it. I'm taking the kids fishing. When I get back, I'm going to love seeing how this develops.

[PMJackson21 0]

I def disagree w/this. I think Pat has a Q a good % of the time when he c/r here, and even if he doesnt, it looks like a Q to his opponent since he was playing so rocky.

Actually, I pretty much never check raise, at least with a big hand. I might c/r with a draw or AT in this spot normally, but trips I lead out...I always have, figuring it's the best way to win a big pot and give your opponent a chance to bluff. It was one of those spots where I knew he would bet if I checked to him (take 'knew' for what it's worth, obv nothing is certain..he could have had a heart attack or something. ), but my image was tight enough that he would probably go away if I led.I agree though that my opponent could take it as a queen. However I think since I had been needling him about stealing my blinds, it adds another aspect to everything, and once again you can take it to upper level thinking.EDIT: Always lead trips/sets unless I'm super short (re: aborted stop and go). :-) Oh and I think heads up is already implied...

[ObeyTheDog 0]

I thought about the check call option, but there is a lot that can hit this turn that gives villain waaay more outs/draws. or made hands.if u call the 10k, do u check/call the turn?

I think that's perfectly fine though.Let's say he's drawing to runner-runner (bee-yoo-ti-ful). I don't want to be check raising that sort of hand off now. I check-call. If he picks up his first runner, that's ok too, because I'm going to lead out at the turn and take position away from him. So now, if he wants to call, he'll be getting a bad price. If we check-call, lead the turn, and he indeed calls that too and misses his runner runner. Now we've made him put money in twice with the worst of it and got value for our hand where a CR moves him off. If he indeed hits, yeah, we'll feel bad that a CR could have "ended" it, but I'd be happy with the decision and that I made my opponent put his money in bad and had him drawing to runner-runner. Hardly anything to get upset over.If the turn does make his hand, I think it's better to control the pot. Most likely, he had a DECENT if not SUPER-DRAW, one that he could play aggressively and put a lot of chips in with two cards to come. I'd rather find that out through the betting and through the hand developing than by getting all my chips in on the flop against some monster draw, even with the slight best of it.You see, I've found so much success in picking up small pots, that I hate getting into a big pot even with the slight best of it. And it's NOT just about having the slight best of it, it's also about protecting against having the worst of it. I'd rather jab-jab-body-body then go for the knockout punch, because it tires out your opponent from playing a lot of difficult small pots with you and forces them into making mistakes and it puts me (strategically) at a better position to win.Just the way I play. But like all "rules", there's a time and a place for that big "boom" hand where you just punish your opponent with a bombardment of CR'ing and all-ins. You gotta always have an extra weapon to show them something different and not get too comfortable or predictable.

[mtdesmoines 3]

The main difference between online players and live players (and this is a generalization but holds true often) is that live players are sooooooo much less aggressive. Even a 'laggy' live player pales in comparison to your avg. standard online mtter.

You HAVE to be talking about higher limits.

[Potsie P 0]

NP, I've just adapted the fine-art of being a calling station. Try it, it's the new maniac style of poker and if you enjoy tough decisions 50% of the time, lots of action, and call-to-steals as well as endless flops and turns (almost every pot seems to go to a turn, because nobody believes me on the flop, and I almost never fold heads up on the flop, haha). It's sick, but it really works for me and is perfect for how I want to play. I hate explosion big-pot big bluff poker. I think small bet, small bluff, make people earn their pot poker and make mistakes is much more satisfying and effective.

Obey--now that I've taken the time to read your looooong first response, I have to say I am muy impressed. That is some pretty coo advanced thinking there, and once more this average player is humbled. Thanks for the post.

[HoosierAlum 0]

You HAVE to be talking about higher limits.

Pretty sure this holds true at just about every limit.

[GrinderMJ 0]

I def disagree w/this. I think Pat has a Q a good % of the time when he c/r here, and even if he doesnt, it looks like a Q to his opponent since he was playing so rocky.The main difference between online players and live players (and this is a generalization but holds true often) is that live players are sooooooo much less aggressive. Even a 'laggy' live player pales in comparison to your avg. standard online mtter. I agree that A10,JJ,KK,AA are in his range, but I think its a pretty small part of his range. I think he has random air ~.001% of the time. Obvi the biggest part of his range is Qs and big draws, and the reason I think the decision is so close is b/c I believe the guy would prob shove with worse queens as well as better ones. Online I'm snap calling for sure, but its much much closer in this situation than you are making it out to be.

Ehh, this is one of those things that I think generally makes my analysis of live hands so poor. I guess I think of all tournament hands in term of online situations, general player tendencies, stack sizes etc. I feel like there is so much I miss about live play nuances that seems to throw my analysis way off (see Hoosier gets KK UTG+1 at Mirage?).

[Acid_Knight 2]

I don't know why people are suggesting that hands like AA and KK are a part of his range.If he knows that the Hero has been playing tight, why is he gonna take a hand like AA or KK and blindly shove 100+ BBs in there, turning his hand into a bluff? I can't see him showing up with anthing less than Qx or some kind of draw here.

[Royal_Tour 0]

EDIT: Always lead trips/sets unless I'm super short (re: aborted stop and go). :-) Oh and I think heads up is already implied...

but lots, LOTS of players, (even players who can afford to play big buy in tourneys, will often slow play a set. or c/r a set. I really dont think villain has enough on you to think u would lead trips/set here.

[HoosierAlum 0]

I don't know why people are suggesting that hands like AA and KK are a part of his range.If he knows that the Hero has been playing tight, why is he gonna take a hand like AA or KK and blindly shove 100+ BBs in there, turning his hand into a bluff? I can't see him showing up with anthing less than Qx or some kind of draw here.

I think they are a very v small part of his range, but they need to be included. You cannot completely discount the doink factor of "omg I have aces or kings Im aww in." We've all seen players do stupid things like this countless times without really analyzing the situation. I agree, it isn't going to happen often, but I think it has to be included as small % of his range.

[PMJackson21 0]

I don't know why people are suggesting that hands like AA and KK are a part of his range.If he knows that the Hero has been playing tight, why is he gonna take a hand like AA or KK and blindly shove 100+ BBs in there, turning his hand into a bluff? I can't see him showing up with anthing less than Qx or some kind of draw here.

Because it's the WSOP ME, and there are a ton of bad players. At the 300-600 level, I saw a guy lose his 100k stack with AK. ANother big stack raises, he re-raises from BB, other guy makes it something crazy like 70k, and the guy flat calls thinking he is all in. He then puts it all in on the 6 high flop and is obv up against AA.The worst players I have ever played against have been in WSOP MEs...Trying to analyze using your own range of hands for making the push isn't logical, because most people's ranges are going to differ.

[HoosierAlum 0]

(see Hoosier gets KK UTG+1 at Mirage?).

<gets out rope and stool>

[Acid_Knight 2]

Because it's the WSOP ME, and there are a ton of bad players. At the 300-600 level, I saw a guy lose his 100k stack with AK. ANother big stack raises, he re-raises from BB, other guy makes it something crazy like 70k, and the guy flat calls thinking he is all in. He then puts it all in on the 6 high flop and is obv up against AA.The worst players I have ever played against have been in WSOP MEs...Trying to analyze using your own range of hands for making the push isn't logical, because most people's ranges are going to differ.

Yeah, except you already said that this guy wasn't one of those terrible players. I'm not trying to assign only MY hand ranges to him, I'm trying to assign a reasonable hand range to him. If he knows what he's doing even a little bit, he's almost never turning AA or KK into a bluff here.

[PMJackson21 0]

Yeah, except you already said that this guy wasn't one of those terrible players. I'm not trying to assign only MY hand ranges to him, I'm trying to assign a reasonable hand range to him. If he knows what he's doing even a little bit, he's almost never turning AA or KK into a bluff here.

I said he wasn't terrible, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't overplay an overpair. If he did have AA, how would he play it? Call my c/r, then call me down? On that draw heavy of a board? Raise to 80k, and then fold? If he has AA and is absolutely certain I have a queen and folds to my c/r, then more power to him. I think w/out further knowledge of his abilities he is just as likely to ship it in there then fold AA.If he had been paying attention to my play at all, he would have seen I never c/r'd and always led my strong hands. That alone could set off his BS detector, coupled with my good hearted needling (and the SB's borderline threatening anger lol...guy looked like an out of work UFC fighter) of his stealing of the blinds.I knew he was not a tournament player, so I didn't automatically gift him with knowledge of tournament poker and/or the ability to make big laydowns. Or marginal for that matter (see ATo for 40k into a 5k pot).

[StupidKid 0]

We need more threads like these, some of the analysis and stuff going on here is really insightful/helpful.Ty guys.

[cubsfan44 0]

I don't know why people are suggesting that hands like AA and KK are a part of his range.If he knows that the Hero has been playing tight, why is he gonna take a hand like AA or KK and blindly shove 100+ BBs in there, turning his hand into a bluff? I can't see him showing up with anthing less than Qx or some kind of draw here.

The A10 hand that PM describe is one reason to definitly include AA/KK. Plus the insta shove to me screams dont call me (problem with that read though is AQ/KQ/QJ probably would prefer not to be called on that draw heavy board also.) For me if he tanks a bit before shipping it I would lean more towards folding. In this example he didnt take enough time on this complicated of a board to rule out him shipping it in on a mistake. I mean you had to surpise him with the checkraise PM yet he instantly knows what to do? I think if you can include AA/KK/smaller Qx hands in his range (which IMHO you can and should) you have to make the call.

[pele_br 0]

I'm still on page 3, and want to post my thoughts before reading further ahead.I am torn between 2 possibilities based on his insta-shove. Either he is on a monster draw, OESFD or in my worst case scenario he is holding two clubs and drawing to a flush xc xc. Depending on how far he is willing to risk the majority of his stack on a draw. If he was holding the nuts or a made hand, I think he would have tried to extract more value, and would not have insta-shoved.Of course, I could be tottally wrong and you could have been drawing slim/dead. My guess, is 8c6c.Very interesting hand curious to see what happened.