My Wsop Main Event Bust Out Hand

[PMJackson21 0]

So, it has taken me a few weeks to post, but I thought my WSOP ME bust out hand would make for interesting discussion/debate. Obviously considering it was my 'bust out' hand, the final results are a given, but I don't think that really takes away from the discussion. Starting day 2a, I had something like 51k in chips and was a bit under average, but still more then enough to work with. I chipped up a bit early to 75k or so, then near the end of the first level I doubled with AA vs AJ on a jack high flop It was actually kind of a sick spot for a nit like me – he raised my bb, I re-raise, he had been playing tight and cold called… flop J97 rainbow, I lead, he puts me all in. Based on the action, what can I beat besides AJ, or possibly TT? If I had known how he would play the rest of the day, I would have insta-called, but as it was I tanked for a minute before calling. That put me up to like 155k when the average stack was somewhere in the 70-80s. The next level and a half were uneventful for the most part. I won pots, I lost pots, and my stack fluctuated from 140ish to 170ish. My image was absolutely perfect, albeit nitty as is standard for me. Then, with about 30 min left to go before dinner and with about 155k in chips, the hand took place. Action folded to an older Mexican gentlemen (Daniel Elizando, from Monterey, Mexico – I did my homework the night before), who had about 200k and had been pretty aggressive. He hadn't shown down many hands besides busting an overplayed TT with AA after he had raised from EP, but had won a ton of uncontested pots using his position and his stack. Throughout the day it had probably folded to him 10-12 times on the button, and he had raised my BB all but once or twice. I had defended once, with A9ss, and check folded the flop. It had gotten to the point that the SB and I had teased about always raising our blinds. Anyway, we are at 800/1600 with a 200 ante and he makes it 5k, which was his standard raise at that level. The SB folds, and I look down at Qd9d. This is pretty much the type of hand (besides a monster) that I'd like to have vs another big stack, because most of the time I will have a pretty good idea whether or not I'm going to play the hand after the flop. I probably muck ace-rag here (or re-r), just because I don't want to be put into a tough situation. Poker is difficult enough without you making it harder on yourself… So, based on his past aggression (and my non aggression from the BB for that matter), I make the call. I obviously don't think he has to be strong here to raise, so I could re-raise pre flop and try to take it down then, but it just wasn't the right time/situation for a re-steal. For one, we were so deep that he is calling w/ position and his stack with a wide range unless I make some insane over raise. I also do not want to re-open action against an agg player that knows I am getting sick of his button raises, and seemed capable of making a 3^rd raise with any two knowing I'd need a monster to play back at him. The flop comes Qc-Qs-Tc, so I have flopped trip queens, but there is also a multitude of draws out there. A lot of time I lead in a spot like this, giving an aggressive player a chance to make a play at me with nothing, but I chose to check-raise in this spot. He had been very consistent in continuation betting when checked to, so I wanted to make sure I at least got that out of him. On cue, he bet 10k into 12.6k pot and action was back on me. I was torn between wanting to maximize and possibly slow play, and wanting to protect my hand out of position on a draw heavy board vs the only guy at the table that could bust me. After a bit I decided that there were way too many cards on the turn that could come off that I would hate and being out of position could possibly put me in really tough spots, so I raised to 30k. So, I raise and hope I'm not chasing him away and losing value. He takes 3-5 seconds, and insta-shoves on me. Mmm…huh? What? Are you kidding me? That wasn't supposed to happen…. Now, I am sitting there with trip queens on a draw heavy board, and w/ about 115-120k in chips left after making the check-raise. As I said, he had me covered so if I call and win, I would be up to about 315k or so and one of the chip leaders. If I fold, I obviously lose a big chunk, but I'm still well above average and as any one that knows my game could attest to, I'd still be in great shape stack-wise. Once I have chips, I rarely give them away barring a bad beat/cooler, so I'd say there is at least a 75% chance that if I fold, I still at least cash on day 3 for the 20k or whatever it was. So, there are a great deal of factors that go into this decision, not just 'OMFG I have trips, I callllll' and break my wrist flipping my cards over. One could even venture into territory only explored by the GREAT Phil Hellmuth, where folding the best hand is ok because you don't want to risk your whole stack against a big draw. I could go on and on listing different factors involved besides the obvious, but I'm sick of writing and most of you are intelligent to figure them out yourself. J Obviously I called and lost. How and to what I will withhold until later (and those who know keep your mouths shut J ), but it was probably the toughest spot I've ever been in while playing poker all things considered, and I think it's worthy of discussion. I'll add my final analysis and the results later. PS - I hate poker.

[rdtedm 0]

KQ?

[bdc30 0]

'OMFG I have trips, I callllll' and break my wrist flipping my cards over.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^Ya. That's what I would do.

[BeaverStyle 1]

Villain had KJc? Tough spot, I think if you're playing to go deep (obviously are..) you call here, but I think folding is definitely the more conservative/safe play. I doubt I lay this down... I mean it's TRIP QUEENS!

[leftygolfer 7]

Now, I am sitting there with trip queens on a draw heavy board, and w/ about 115-120k in chips left after making the check-raise. As I said, he had me covered so if I call and win, I would be up to about 315k or so and one of the chip leaders. If I fold, I obviously lose a big chunk, but I'm still well above average and as any one that knows my game could attest to, I'd still be in great shape stack-wise. Once I have chips, I rarely give them away barring a bad beat/cooler, so I'd say there is at least a 75% chance that if I fold, I still at least cash on day 3 for the 20k or whatever it was. [/size][/font] PS - I hate poker.

If you were playing to win and I assume you were, I think it was the correct call. I am guessing AQ or KQ or JTFolding gets you a $10,000 payday for 2 plus days work. Big deal.

[rdtedm 0]

Folding gets you a $10,000 payday for 2 plus days work. Big deal.

($10,000/2)365 = $1,825,000I'd take five grand a day.Agreed though, you should be playing to win and not to cash. I'd have called here.

[PMJackson21 0]

If you were playing to win and I assume you were, I think it was the correct call. I am guessing AQ or KQ or JTFolding gets you a $10,000 payday for 2 plus days work. Big deal.

Ha, actually given that I'm backed, folding I get rid of make up and have a bit for myself afterwards...Like I said, a ton of factors, one of them being my backing relationship and how that potentially affects people's decisions. Logically, one would think people would be more willing to gamble when backed since they only own a portion of themselves. I also won the seat, so it's not like I was adding to my make up. So yeah, def playing to win/go deep.

[zmoney 0]

I know hindsight is 20/20, but how can you call there? Why risk your tournamentlife with such a suspect hand and board? You can find better spots to get the money in than the likely 60/40 70/30 favorite you were.

[r0llin_game 1]

the range he could have around here is enormous to me. he has been very aggro on your button so he could think you are tryin to make a move on him. i honestly could see him tryin to make a statement in saying dont attempt a resteal. the range after the shove i think could be from JJ-77 pair wise, thinking that he'd process the info w/ AA and KK and trying to hollywood it w/ TT. he could obv. have AQ and KQ here but i dont think he insta shoves w/ AQ and might take more of a pause w/ KQ. since he insta shoveled, i could make the case for QJbeing very likely along w/ either AKc, AJc, KJc, or J9cl. it seems QJ to AKc-J9c is the most likely since the insta shovel.pm me w/ results =D

[cubsfan44 0]

I make the call. The board is draw heavy but that also gives him reason to lay out a bluff/semibluff in that spot. Also if he is holding KJ you have 3 of his outs blocked with your nine.

[timsta007 0]

AcJc is my guess

[PMJackson21 0]

I make the call. The board is draw heavy but that also gives him reason to lay out a bluff/semibluff in that spot. Also if he is holding KJ you have 3 of his outs blocked with your nine.

Heh that was actually the last bit of processed info that sealed the call.

[irishguy 14]

I know hindsight is 20/20, but how can you call there? Why risk your tournamentlife with such a suspect hand and board? You can find better spots to get the money in than the likely 60/40 70/30 favorite you were.

I don't even know what to say to this other than its a horrible mind set if you are ever looking to be a winning player

[breeze81 0]

I think I'm going to lay this one down, since your image is sounds to be good at the table. If this guy is a good player here I don't think he's making a move against you unless he has a big hand or big draw, with that being said he could think that AA, KK or even JJ are still in the lead, if he were to have that.I would fold and continue to chip up and look for a better spot, especially since it sounds like you were doing quite good just chipping up. But I can understand a call here. Just seems like everytime I'm in this spot I'm always beat or against a big draw and then it hits.

[albasuna 0]

Well those unknown variables come into play. It all depends on what you want to pursue.-Is it that important to be the chip leader at this point?-Are you playing to cash? stuff like that.I'm no pro and I don't even play high stakes but that's what I would think. In tough spots sometimes your read is not all that you weigh the decision upon. To truly know if it was a good play or not depends on what you were thinking at the time.BTW it's too hard for me to put him on a hand at this point with the information. We can only make a guess based upon his betting, which kinda sucks!

[mtdesmoines 3]

[/size]

Thanks for your story. This is a fascinating hand. Can't wait to hear the conclusion. I don't know if I'd put my tourney life on a 9 kicker.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I think I fold here. Results aside, I'd ask myself one thing:What is he pushing with here?If he's got Qx, the X is almost certainly better than mine and I probably have 3 outs to win and a few more to chop. He could have a big draw, maybe AJcc, J9cc, KJcc or something like that where he's gonna win about 35-50% of the time anyway.He's mostly risking his tournament life as well, which has to be a big consideration for you. If I'm doing the math right, you still have enough chips left to maneuver if you lose this hand. I think you can find a better spot than this becuase it's almost impossible that you're very far ahead of him, but you're often way behind.

[cubsfan44 0]

Another thing to consider is how ideal that board is for PMjackson to bluff check/raise into. If PM was looking for a spot to slow down the aggresive button (which the button has to assume is coming eventually) this is the ideal board to do it on.

[SilentButDeadly3 0]

PMJ would u consider this guy a good player or just a bad over aggressive player? And are you two the two top stacks at the table or in the top 3?This is a very interesting hand.

[cubsfan44 0]

I think I fold here. Results aside, I'd ask myself one thing:What is he pushing with here?If he's got Qx, the X is almost certainly better than mine and I probably have 3 outs to win and a few more to chop. He could have a big draw, maybe AJcc, J9cc, KJcc or something like that where he's gonna win about 35-50% of the time anyway.He's mostly risking his tournament life as well, which has to be a big consideration for you. If I'm doing the math right, you still have enough chips left to maneuver if you lose this hand. I think you can find a better spot than this becuase it's almost impossible that you're very far ahead of him, but you're often way behind.

I dont think I agree with this. Why couldnt he be holding a smaller Q? esp. with the insta shove.

[PMJackson21 0]

Another thing to consider is how ideal that board is for PMjackson to bluff check/raise into. If PM was looking for a spot to slow down the aggresive button (which the button has to assume is coming eventually) this is the ideal board to do it on.

Ya, like Randal said when I talked to him about it, "you c'r there to get people to shove into you with weaker hands and draws etc." Most donks expect people to always slowplay trips or a set, so they won't give you much credit for a big hand. I don't think Daniel was a bad player by any means, however he was primarily a cash/sng player and had little experience with MTTs outside of the WSOP super sats stars runs.On a side note, based on the speed of his action, I was 99% sure it was not QT or TT.

[PMJackson21 0]

PMJ would u consider this guy a good player or just a bad over aggressive player? And are you two the two top stacks at the table or in the top 3?This is a very interesting hand.

I just posted it in another reply, but he was primarily a cash and sng player on stars, with his only tournaments being super sats and an occassional Sunday Million (talked to him about it). I think he was a good player, albeit a bit laggy. Wait, I forgot the hand that stuck out in my mind regarding him:Level before this one, so 600/1200. 'Typical' older player limps in EP with like 40k behind. Folded to Daniel is Sb and he completes. BB checks, and the 3 see an Ad-3x-5d flop. Both blinds check, and old man shoves 40k into a 5kish pot. Daniel tanks and calls with....?ATo...Old limper shows A7, and Daniel's ten holds. Not the hands I expected to see by any means (draws, two pair, etc etc etc). So that hand made me think he overvalued hands just a bit, and didn't understand the value of a chip lost vs gained etc etc.Anyway...He was the top stack, and then there was a younger kid that just got moved to the table. He looked to have about what I had, if not a bit more.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I dont think I agree with this. Why couldnt he be holding a smaller Q? esp. with the insta shove.

He's instashoving with <Q9 when it's very likely that we can have trips when we called a raise OOP? I mean, what can we have here? Q9 is the worst Q that I think the Hero is ever holding here.

[HoosierAlum 0]

… flop J97 rainbow, I lead, he puts me all in. Based on the action, what can I beat besides AJ, or possibly TT?

AJ,TT,QQ,KK,88,KJ,J8,J10,QK,Q10,910,78 To the hand in question, how did this guy generally play postflop(aggressive/passive/mix)? Had you seen him push draws? Did he play his made hands and draw differently?Based on your description he is obvi opening the button w/literally any 2. This gives you more of a reason to felt your hand in this spot b/c he is obviously going to stack off w/any queen and worse queens are definitely in his range . If it was a tighter player opening you could get away much easier b/c he would always either have you crushed or at the very least have a huge draw. We have to give him a range and figure out what we beat....All queens, Axc, other big combo draws, and maybe aa,kk would probably be the majority of the range.Also, you made a comment about him stealing your blind often so in his head he probably believes you are check raising him semi-light, which in turn could make him shove lighter. So maybe he shoves a hand like aces or kings. On the other hand, you had been playing nitty and only defended one other time so your c/r is basically telling any competent player that you have a queen here. I would generally bet/3bet ai in this spot espec v an aggressive player for a # of reasons. Your flop doink bet looks v weak (like 10x,KJ,J9,air) and aggro player love to raise these bets. He almost for sure isn't going to put you on a queen when you lead, so if you lead, he raises and you jam, he might put you on a draw and make a hero call drawing super slim w/ a hand like AA,KK,A10. Also, bet/3betting will price out any draw he has. Another reason I'm not crazy about c/r is the turn spot you will be in if he flat calls your c/r. You can be put in a ton of sticky turn situations in an already bloated pot if you c/r, he calls, and any # of scary turn cards hit. This is one of the most draw heavy boards imaginable so a great deal of turn cards won't be pretty for your hand. The thought of him already having a better made hand might also creep into your head if he just flats the c/r.Anyway, as played, I actually think its pretty close and player dependent. Are you good at making live reads? Personally I'm horrible at this, but maybe you picked up something. He is basically putting his tournament on this line here, and from my experience at the WSOP most ppl aren't doing this without vv strong hands. Again, he could have worse queens and would probably feel pretty confident. I probably would have went broke here by bet/3betting ai, but I think its possible (although maybe not correct) to get away from your hand here.Definitely close spot, and don't beat yourself up for going broke here, its probably not a mistake. Gross though...ugh.

[PMJackson21 0]

He's instashoving with <Q9 when it's very likely that we can have trips when we called a raise OOP? I mean, what can we have here? Q9 is the worst Q that I think the Hero is ever holding here.

Ya, but a queen is not the only hand I could have here to c/r. My range is pretty huge....based on his past actions from the button, I could be making a play with any 2 to be honest. I think he is raising pretty much any 2 from the button (with some exceptions of course), so Q-rag is def a hand he could have. A bit unlikely that he has the case Q, but obviusly possible, and if he does I don't think he would care if he had AQ or Q2 unless I called.