My Wsop Main Event Bust Out Hand

[The Phoenix 0]

Such a sick spot PMJ. I think I could find a fold because of how the hand was played combined with the fact that you would still have a solid stack if you fold. Had you led the flop and he raised I think I would have shipped, but when you check-raise and he shoves I think its more likely you are beat or he has an enourmous draw.Us nits have to be careful not to be run over but it's a fine line. Sometimes you make a stand because of the circumstances (opponent's aggressiveness, ahead of his range) and make a play in a marginal situation and end up going bust when you could have found a fold and still be in a good situation stack wise. I'm still sick about a play I made the other day in a similar situation. I liked my situation at a table and thought I continue to chip up easily when I got into a confrontation with the CL who had already come over the top of me twice. No 2 outer for me, GG.If you think you are ahead, by all means call, but I think there is a good chance you were behind.

[jjgoldy5 0]

Ya, but a queen is not the only hand I could have here to c/r. My range is pretty huge....based on his past actions from the button, I could be making a play with any 2 to be honest. I think he is raising pretty much any 2 from the button (with some exceptions of course), so Q-rag is def a hand he could have. A bit unlikely that he has the case Q, but obviusly possible, and if he does I don't think he would care if he had AQ or Q2 unless I called.

Question - What do you make of the insta shove?I think this is probably his logic "BB is making a play back at me... oh hah I have AcKc I can push him off the T, oh **** you called with Q9...thanks for the club dealer... gg BB"

[Acid_Knight 2]

Ya, but a queen is not the only hand I could have here to c/r. My range is pretty huge....based on his past actions from the button, I could be making a play with any 2 to be honest. I think he is raising pretty much any 2 from the button (with some exceptions of course), so Q-rag is def a hand he could have. A bit unlikely that he has the case Q, but obviusly possible, and if he does I don't think he would care if he had AQ or Q2 unless I called.

I think that you're not putting enough emphasis on the aspect of him risking HIS tourney life on the hand too. Obviously he's not going to be out, but he's gonna be pretty well crippled if he's wrong here. Yeah, your range can be kind of big for the c/r but it HAS to include trips as a large part of it. If he's gonna push back, IMO, his range includes trips (I think he'd play a boat slower) and big draws, like a gutshot and flush draw or OESFD type hands. I don't think he eagerly instapushes a smaller queen back at you. I don't know the guy but this seems like a situation where you can fold since you'll still have over 100K in chips and the blinds are only 800/1600.I just can't think of a hand that he does this with that doesn't have 12 outs or has you crushed.

[PMJackson21 0]

Snip spot on Hoosier analysis

As for the AA vs AJ hand, my read on the guy was that he would have re-raised pre with QQ or KK, so I elminated those, and the weaker connectors etc based on how he had played up until then. Heh like I said though, just because he had been tight until then didn't mean he was solid by any means, and was actually pretty much a donk. (super nice though).As for the bust hand - Like I said, I almost always lead the flop there online and I feel that is the optimal way to play the hand vs most players. I think my mind set was extracting some value w/out playing a huge pot OOP, and I wanted to see what he would do on the flop. I felt that based on how he had been playing, he would bet regardless of what he had, and if he checked then I could put him on TT or QT, possibly a queen, and possibly a draw although I think he would bet it. As for any physical read, he did not look comfortable at all. I stood up and walked away, and after a minute he stood up too. I made eye contact with him and gave him the 'are you serious half smile', and he looked away quickly. Based on that and the speed of the shove, made me think he did not really want a call. That being said, it is the biggest tournament of the year so you have to give them some credit until rpvoen otherwise.

[mtdesmoines 3]

I think that you're not putting enough emphasis on the aspect of him risking HIS tourney life on the hand too. Obviously he's not going to be out, but he's gonna be pretty well crippled if he's wrong here. Yeah, your range can be kind of big for the c/r but it HAS to include trips as a large part of it. If he's gonna push back, IMO, his range includes trips (I think he'd play a boat slower) and big draws, like a gutshot and flush draw or OESFD type hands. I don't think he eagerly instapushes a smaller queen back at you. I don't know the guy but this seems like a situation where you can fold since you'll still have over 100K in chips and the blinds are only 800/1600.I just can't think of a hand that he does this with that doesn't have 12 outs or has you crushed.

I don't think he plays tens full slower. If hero has trip queens, he knows he's coming in anyway. And if villain has tens full, can he keep chipping away at hero if overcards start to fall? Villain probably isn't pushing a draw here, he flopped tens full. That's what I'd guess from the action.

[NoSup4U 0]

Nice hand.Board too draw heavy to fold vs a laggy aggro who has you covered andthinks you are a nit that won't put your life on the line without the stone nuts. I hate that your kicker is so gross though, but given that he didn't snap push, I would guess he had some big draw.Mark

[PMJackson21 0]

Question - What do you make of the insta shove?I think this is probably his logic "BB is making a play back at me... oh hah I have AcKc I can push him off the T, oh **** you called with Q9...thanks for the club dealer... gg BB"

That would be the most obvious logic. He knows I'm tight enough to debate folding AA on a j high board, so he probably knows I would need a monster to call a shove. You could get really deep into it and go 4th and 5th level thinking etc, and how our images of each other could be used etc....But yeah, take away all outside factors (its the WSOP ME, etc) and his shove does not look like it's intended for value (nor can he logically expect me to call).

[No_Neck 0]

But yeah, take away all outside factors (its the WSOP ME, etc) and his shove does not look like it's intended for value (nor can he logically expect me to call).

Wow you just blew my mind

[hblask 1]

I don't think he plays tens full slower. If hero has trip queens, he knows he's coming in anyway. And if villain has tens full, can he keep chipping away at hero if overcards start to fall? Villain probably isn't pushing a draw here, he flopped tens full. That's what I'd guess from the action.

After reading all this discussion, this is the conclusion I am coming to, but at the time I would've been so thrilled to see him shove that my chips would've hit the table before his. This is why you play these events, and I play $4.40 SnGs.

[PMJackson21 0]

I think that you're not putting enough emphasis on the aspect of him risking HIS tourney life on the hand too. Obviously he's not going to be out, but he's gonna be pretty well crippled if he's wrong here. Yeah, your range can be kind of big for the c/r but it HAS to include trips as a large part of it. If he's gonna push back, IMO, his range includes trips (I think he'd play a boat slower) and big draws, like a gutshot and flush draw or OESFD type hands. I don't think he eagerly instapushes a smaller queen back at you. I don't know the guy but this seems like a situation where you can fold since you'll still have over 100K in chips and the blinds are only 800/1600.I just can't think of a hand that he does this with that doesn't have 12 outs or has you crushed.

I can think of a ton of hands that he would do it with that I have crushed, but that's not the issue. The issue is whether or not he is capable of showing there with lesser hands/draws, and everything I was shown until that point pointed to yes. Past hands like the AT cold call of 40k (over a 1/3 of his stack at the time or so) into a 5k pot showed he was willing to risk a ton of chips in a marginal spot, and my image was tight enough (esp after they all made a big deal about me actually thinking about mucking AA) that I think he felt he could push me off a lot of hands. If I think he is capable of that, then it becomes more of 'do i want to risk my stack for a chance at a _huge_ stack in the WSOP ME' thing. Believe me when I say I am enough of a nit that I am looking for a reason to fold here. :-)I agree though that he slowplays a boat. There would be no reason for him to push hard if he had already filled up, especially since he knows I'm folding a huge percentage of the time.

[cubsfan44 0]

Wow you just blew my mind

Woot I finally made it in someone's sig. Once step closer to making featured member of the week. Come on big $$$$$$ score.edit: sadly im sitting with 24 bucks. meh, I still got a long way to go.

[rdtedm 0]

Does QK make sense at all to anyone?His only decision after you made the C/R, if he has QK, is if you have a hand like AQ, or a boat. Given the small amount of thinking (three hands beat him), this seems reasonable.

[tskillz187 0]

I think it's a sick spot. I agree with Hoos that leading here is best. I like it because I get to put the 3rd bet in and decide how much this pot is being played for, your C/R took that away and he got to put all of the pressure on you, you never want to be playing tourney poker guessing with the call for all of your chips. Obviously you know that and I'm not trying to sound like I have more knowledge.Also, just from railing you and seeing hands that you post as well with the way that you describe yourself, you are a tight nitty player, just FYI I think you're a very good player. But, to me, if you play tourneys this style (when I actually play tourneys successfully this is the style I also employ) the difference between 100k+ stack and 300k+ stack is just time that we are buying ourselves. You already have tons of time and I don't think you are going to wield your stack by punishing the players around you, so it doesn't really matter if you are at 300k right now or not.Because of your playing style and how close the decision is I'd lean toward a fold.

[dapokerbum 0]

Does QK make sense at all to anyone?His only decision after you made the C/R, if he has QK, is if you have a hand like AQ, or a boat. Given the small amount of thinking (three hands beat him), this seems reasonable.

Don't post much anymore but this is an interesting hand! I am a full nit and would have folded given the speed of his push. Good analysis by everyone, but I don't see him having anything except a Q with a bigger kicker...of course I lost $200 over the weekend at 3/6 live so what do I know.

[No_Neck 0]

Woot I finally made it in someone's sig. Once step closer to making featured member of the week. Come on big $$$$$$ score.edit: sadly im sitting with 24 bucks. meh, I still got a long way to go.

I knew that was someone on this forum.

[jethrodull 0]

ok..almost 2 hours of debate...and the answer is??????????????????????J

[Randy Reed 0]

Question - What do you make of the insta shove?I think this is probably his logic "BB is making a play back at me... oh hah I have AcKc I can push him off the T, oh **** you called with Q9...thanks for the club dealer... gg BB"

This was my intitial thought or Axc but I'm also a Bengal fan so what do I know. I always did wonder what happened to you though since there was no report on you that day.

[mase_gotsem 0]

somehow im getting the feeling he called u with Q worse kicker and sucked out ?did u ever think of maybe calling on flop instead of raising and then re evaluate on turn if no scare cards fall this is probly how i wlda played it since were both fairly deep if he out flopped me and turn is no threat im getting it all in and stacking off either way such a sick way to go out man cant wait to hear what he had

[gobears 0]

If Villain puts you on a queen which has to be in your range, he probably figures it's a weaker queen as if you had AQ/KQ, you probably reraise him preflop. However, he knows that you have to include AQ/KQ in his range because he raised preflop, bet the flop and now has moved all-in. If you had QQ (very unlikely obv)/1010, you probably raise preflop as well.You took awhile before folding aces earlier on the jack high board, so he figures he has good fold equity even if you have a weaker queen because you have to fear AQ/KQ. Also, he knows you won't call his all-in with just any draw (unless it's a monster straight flush draw) so he really is only concerned about Q10 and probably figures you'll fold everything else. Even if you slowplayed AA/KK preflop as a trap, you have to fear the two queens on the board.If villain was willing to call with A10 on huge overbet of the pot earlier, then I could see him shoving with almost any flush or straight draw here figuring that you would fold a great percentage of the time.That being said, even with all the info, it'd be extremely difficult for me to call here with trips and a weak kicker. You still have 75BBs if you fold also. Sick hand.

[rdtedm 0]

You took awhile before folding aces earlier on the jack high board, so he figures he has good fold equity even if you have a weaker queen because you have to fear AQ/KQ.

He went into the tank and called with AA.Otherwise, I like your analysis a lot.

[SBriand 4]

I gotta leave for home now but I am going to say AJ. But don't mind me, ISAP.

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

The people saying they'd fold are full of it. What's your reason for withholding the other players hand? There's no need to make an event out of it.

[suicideking 0]

Lets hear it. My money is on a suckout of some kind.

[dapokerbum 0]

The people saying they'd fold are full of it. What's your reason for withholding the other players hand? There's no need to make an event out of it.

Interesting analysis...keep up the good work.

[mtdesmoines 3]

Lets hear it. My money is on a suckout of some kind.

Nah. The funeral tone of it all suggests hero called drawing very thin.