My Wsop Main Event Bust Out Hand

[mase_gotsem 0]

I think most peoples opinions are skewed by the fact that we know PM lost the hand. If that wasnt known this would be a one page thread where everyone says insta-call. I mean really its only become a tough decision because we all know he lost the hand somehow. If we all didnt know the end result of the hand i think AA/KK would be a much bigger % of villians range. My best guess of villians holdings (completly ignoring the results) is AA/KK or Qx (with x being > 9 most of the time). Unfortunaty knowing the outcome of the hand makes my read more then likely completely wrong, but PM didnt know the outcome at the time. IMO (again doing my best to ignore the known outcome) this is an easy call.

i dont agree i took the thread as yes he lost but how cld he of played it differantly was his c/r wrong play in this scenario as i posted erlier and obey said in a level higher than my grade 9 education (grade 8 if ur considering last grade past lol ) is it might of been better to check call since were spending the same amount as we would of if we check raised but were peeling off a free card to help us make such a key decision if its come a blank we have alot more fold equity if hes on a draw but only problem is if he leads out do we shove it in and hope to be an 80/20 or just call incase we have the worst q like i said if it comes a blank im getting it all in and hope hes drawing thin on the turn if it comes a scare card i can fold and still have enough chips to go deep if u read daniels startegy he states this also that its not always correct to c/r for info since check calling and getting a free card u will have spent the same amount and get the same information really with the chance to improve yes im babbling here ill stop if this doesnt make sense srry im not good at explaining things

[SleekPanther 0]

Great post and discussion. After reading it all I can't see him at least taking a little time to study you or talk to you before shoving with most hands. With AA, KK or even a huge fluh draw on that board, with the amount of chips and his main event at stake, he would hesitate for longer than 3-5 seconds. Likewise I can't see him thinking you were making a move here either. It's just not worth it for him to be the sheriff against the 2nd biggest stack at this point. He has 7 or 8 other cats he can keep honest and chip up against. Aggro or not I put him on the case Q with the matching J That may be a stretch and I would of called as well considering your description of him. Its much easier to study the hand at home than at the table. I admire your game and you made the right play here 4 sure.

[blakheart 3]

I would have played it the same, but I like Obey's thoughts. Patrick, What is the turn card? I am curious if it went check/call what turn card fell, what line to take then.

[duckie143 0]

I see this post at work during lunch and I think Interesting....I check on this post at around 3pm...no results...but still great feedback and hand analysis....but still had interest ........ what did that guy have....I check on this post before I go home and finally expecting to see results and now im thinking..why is he dragging this out....I check on this post around 8pm before I go play ball and think..PMJ has gotta have the ending to his WSOP by now..but nothing..people have said what they thought but WTF is he waiting for....attention whore...I come back home.... shower..watch alittle of the tube...check emails and sheet and finally before I goto sleep ... check on the post and see...9 pages...wow..answers have to be on page 6 or 7...nothing..8? nothing..9? THIS IS BULLSHIT....he wants another DAY or 2? I for one will not check anymore because I DONT CARE ANYMORE...that is all...

[mase_gotsem 0]

blah blah blah im a drty

that is all

[jtambourine 0]

he wouldn't post it if he wasn't behind. he's trying to obtain reason to fold. there isn't much.villain has AQ/KQ/TTdoubt the TT though

[Ecclesbury 0]

Great thread this.I a big fan of ObeyTheDogs response. I have been doing some thinking along the very same lines recently (about basically playing like a refined calling station) and it's great to hear a top guy echoing some of my thoughts (albeit in at a much more advanced stage)The big problem I see with the way you played is that:1. He opened with a raise on your big blind as he has done coutless times before. Hence he could do this with a VERy wide range of hands. So this gives us very little information.2. You claim he would bet at almost any flop if you checked to him, whether he'd hit or not. So when you check and he bets you still have very little information about his hand.3. You finally get your first big chunk of info on his hand when he shoves after you check raise. So the only point where you have any idea of where you stand is when you are faced with a decision for all your chips.Given that the power of the aggressive approach is that it is very hard for players to gain information on your hand it is always going to be like this to some degree but with the way Obey plays it you can gain the same information at a much lower cost.

[ObeyTheDog 0]

The main reason I hate a checkraise is because he's shoving or folding almost all of his hands here.

That's kind of what I was going for boiled down to one sentence. If I'm putting my opponent to THIS type of decision, I already know what I'm going to do if he shoves. Based on the type of player, I'd already know whether I'm insta-calling or insta-folding (with fake deliberation of course either way...). It's like, yeah, you're real deep with 150k relatively speaking, but as soon as you CR, suddenly, you're either winning the pot right now or you're going to play it for all your chips. Even if he flat calls, you're essentially playing for all your chips by the turn.

[ObeyTheDog 0]

Nobody should be in the "obvious" category.If there's one thing I'm sure of, it's that nothing is obvious, but certain decisions are instinctive and predetermined. Sometimes you raise or check raise and know immediately that you will call (expecting) to get reraised allin. Sometimes you will check, expecting a reaction of bet, and your predetermined reaction is to reraise. Sometimes, when all the money is not in, you know what you will do but still must deliberate or feign deliberation so you are consistent. But none of this is OBVIOUS. A trained poker eye is one that is exercised and more importantly, flexible. You have to be willing to blink and see the different angles of the hand while it's playing out. This sometimes means changing your own view. I'm a believer in thinking long, thinking wrong, because when you play what I call "below the neck" poker (i.e. playing from your gut) you are more often right than wrong. When you play "above the neck" poker (using your brain, logic, math), you may make sound decisions, but those decisions are more easily swayed. Unless you can commit to 100% game theory decisions, it's very easy for the mind to trick you or convince you of something that is not there. How often do you know you are beat at the river, but convince yourself of some random hand that he could have and you barely eek out, so you call. How many times must you make that call before you train your poker eye to recognize the situation properly? I have found the gut to be much more reliable and honest and unwavering.It's this reason why nothing is obvious. It's this reason why the concept of "tournament life" is irrelevant.Nothing bugs me more than "tournament life" coming into play during a discussion about a decision of a poker hand. Yes, if you feel you have a strong edge over the field, over the table, perhaps you should be folding the best hand even if the cards are turned face-up hypothetically and you are only a 51% favorite....let's not turn this into complete meta-game madness. But by and large, you should be making great poker decisions that are based solely upon you accomplishing your goal of accumulating the most chips and losing the least. If you stay within these simple goals of maximizing profit and minimizing loss, without fear of loss of tourney life, your decisions will become better, stronger, and precise. It's this reason why arguments like "If you called with Q9 preflop, you have to go broke on this flop" or "If you CR'd, you have to call". Excuse me? No you don't. And No You Don't.While I agree that often certain situations dictate you SHOULD be calling, and I'm not going to go into detail about why calling is probably the superior decision, but this is tournament poker. Why does one make a call with Q9s from the BB in the first place? By some people's logic, it's to hit a board like QQ10 and get all your money in at some point? Hardly. I call raises from the BB with 7-2 against the right opponent. The truth is, most button v. blind or LP v. blind situations are heads-up, and when they are, the VAST majority of the time, they DO NOT go to showdown.If hands don't go to showdown, your cards are 'almost' irrelevant. Against certain types of opponents, I will fold my BB, if I don't feel it's a favorable situation, against too tough or tricky opponents who are likely to battle me hard and force me to many a tough decision. But against MOST opponents, it's important to remember that the hand is just beginning when you call that raise from the BB and while it's lovely to hit "gin", most of the time, if you want to be successful, you're going to have to figure out another way to win the pot. This is why I'd rather invest 10% of my stack covering preflop, the flop, and the turn, to win a pot, where I've acquired more information, figured how the best way to win the pot, which hands I can represent, which hand range my opponent has, and if I haven't won by that time, if it's in my best interest to fire at the river to win the pot. I'd rather do this than try to do what a lot of people do, which is fire back strong from the blinds into late position raisers out of position to try and win the pot right there, or check raise the flop with air, or with a hand, investing a lot of money, giving yourself less opportunities to find just the right mix of texture and information to succeed.The checkraise is overused. In very deep stack situations, it's incredibly overused. I'm not saying PMJ is wrong. In the moment of the hand, HE is the best judge of the situation. He knew the most about his opponent, his image, the feel of the texture of the hand, the way his opponent bet, the way he deliberated....all of that adds up to what he felt was the best decision. That's VERY valuable information, information I can't make a decision properly without. All things being equal, that's just not how I would proceed with the hand. (already discussed earlier in the thread)In two hands in the first 10 deals of the WSOP ME, I made two decisions where the gut said "go" and the mind said "stop". In the first, I had 7c8c and raised to 300. I got one caller and the flop came 8-4-3 rainbow. I led for 350, was raised to 1250, and called. The turn was a 5. I checked, he bet 2,200. I sensed weakness, but in case I was wrong and because I did not want to allow room for a big semibluff, I just called again. The river was a 9. I checked again, and he thought and bet 6,400. Now my mind said "STOP". FOLD. This is crazy. You have half your stack in if you call this bet and are wrong. He has shown THREE stages of strength, raised you on the flop, bet the pot on the turn, and is now risking over half his stack on a river bet (he had already lost 3k in the first few hands, so he had less chips than me). "It's early" the mind said. "He could have a set of 5's and got lucky", "he could have 8-9". FOLD. The gut said the same thing it's said since the flop. The same thing it's been saying the whole way. The same reason I'd put any chips in the pot at all. I called. He had QJ high and I scooped a nice pot, while telling the table, don't bluff me, I'll sniff it out.In the second hand, merely a lap later, I raised AhKh (amazing, right? I actually get good hands sometimes), and the same guy calls me. The flop comes A-9-2 rainbow. He checks and I sense something off his check, I didn't like it. I checked. The turn was a J, he checked again. My mind said "gotta value bet this a little...that J opened a lot of draws, protect it". Gut said the same thing it said on the flop, something is off. Who cares if you're wrong, so you checked TPTK twice, maybe it'll be good for your image even if it's the best hand. River came a T. Villain led for 1,800. Mind said "see, he got there, happy now?" Gut said "You're beat, that's all that matters". The mind criticizes you and beats you up and wears you down. The gut merely gives you the information you need, no judging, it's just up to you to use it. I folded face-up. He flipped over two ducks for a flopped set. These two hands defined me and my game. It set up my image to show I wasn't a station, but an analyzer, someone who will figure things out, make big calls, and big checks and folds. I set up my table and put two completely opposite reads on the same opponent, gaining maximum value out of second pair, and losing the absolutely bare minimum with TPTK on an unconnected, uncoordinated board.---Yes, these are very long posts and I'm sorry for that, but if you want inside my head, or some different perspectives, you'll read them and respond and challenge where necessary. And thanks PMJ for waking me up from my post WSOP slumber. I'm ready to start thinking again.

[juggalo41729 0]

I love reading your long posts obey. With that said do you think its just as important in a tournament that has 1500 starting chips and a lot of hands to reach the river that you defend your blinds or do you think cards play a larger role?

[AKProdigy 0]

All I have to say is that was a very intelligent and well thought out post Obey. Thanks for the read.I guess this is sort of vague and general, but I feel like I tend to go against my better judgment at times in favour of "what I should be doing" in certain situations. How much does instinct or gut influence a decision that is completely swayed towards fold or call "mathematically". Are you completely dependent on your gut as to say that if you logically went through the process, and figured you would win a hand 40 - 45% of the time given 3:1 odds to call on the river putting the villain on a range, yet your gut was telling you he had you beat, would you fold? I feel like its those decisions that separate the good players from the great ones.

[ObeyTheDog 0]

I love reading your long posts obey. With that said do you think its just as important in a tournament that has 1500 starting chips and a lot of hands to reach the river that you defend your blinds or do you think cards play a larger role?

That's probably the one thing I didn't want people misinterpreting. Trying to play small ball and defending as much as I do in a deep stack tourney and setting up these elaborate 3 street detective missions just doesn't work if you only have 1500 chips. We should ask JC and let him talk. I'd guess, though I'm not sure, that he was frustrated by the WSOP prelims. His type of poker from what i can gauge is close to this line of thinking, and he needs a lot of room to maneuver. When you play this way, I find myself in a lot of uncomfortable situations which I'm becoming quite used to. Sometimes it might mean having make a really awkward, somewhat risky, bluff, calling down with 4th pair, and value betting 2nd pair. You need chips to do this, because nobody is perfect, you are still wrong, and you still get outdrawn just like anyone else. To play pots with people, you need the ammo. I played 9 WSOP events, cashed in 2, and the best tourneys I played were the 5k and the 10k. I imagine internet short stack turbo junkies would be right at home in the 1500's.The hardest thing I ever had to do in poker was change a swing that was effective. I was doing pretty well playing big pot poker, but I knew I wanted more so I as I learned (and I'm still learning...) how to play small ball and how to play a more disciplined, surgery-type poker, I found it killed my bottom line in most online tourneys and I was just not finding success with it. So I had to make a lot more adjustments to realize that it really comes into play in online tourneys in the middle and late stages when you are deep enough relative to your opponents. It's funny, your M might be less than when the tourney started, but due to the table and stack dynamics (i.e., certain players less willing to gamble, more heads-up pots, etc.) small ball worked better then. If you want to practice it, try at least a DS on Full Tilt or a DS on Stars. The best way you can practice though is to play a deep rebuy on Stars. That's how I got better at it and to this day, still find and attribute my greatest learning tool the $10 rebuy on Stars, 55k guaranteed. Back then, I think it was only 35k guaranteed, but one summer I dedicated only to this tourney with my good friend and we came up with what we thought were the perfect inflection point markers and calculated the best times to shove. We didn't know it then, but we were really practicing M-shoves and lots of endgame short stack play. Long story short (I know...impossible for me), we were able to make 6 final tables in about 60 tries each, and remember these were and still are 1000+ player fields. I never took one down outright, but did chop it because JohnnyBax was there and accepted even money, but I'd say the money wasn't the most valuable thing (though at the time, those scores were very much needed). Looking back on it now, I'd say the understanding of how to play ridiculous deep stack situations (It was common for us to have 40k with blinds at 100-200) was the most valuable and long-term profitable skill.

All I have to say is that was a very intelligent and well thought out post Obey. Thanks for the read.I guess this is sort of vague and general, but I feel like I tend to go against my better judgment at times in favour of "what I should be doing" in certain situations. How much does instinct or gut influence a decision that is completely swayed towards fold or call "mathematically". Are you completely dependent on your gut as to say that if you logically went through the process, and figured you would win a hand 40 - 45% of the time given 3:1 odds to call on the river putting the villain on a range, yet your gut was telling you he had you beat, would you fold? I feel like its those decisions that separate the good players from the great ones.

Others can chime in on this one, but in clear mathematical situations like the ones you are defining where you are getting 3:1 and have a 40% chance to win, I'll make the call. Whenever the math is so clear, I'll usually make that decision and let the long term results settle it out without relying on outside factors like my tournament life.But when making a call like that, so much more is important to me. I care a lot about losing my "chip power". Not necessarily the chip lead, but I want the power to still be able to play "my" game. If I have to make calls that take away my ability to steal cheap pots, well then 3:1 doesn't really matter as much to me now, because really, the better "mathematical" decision is to leave myself the room to be able to keep stealing cheap pots. So I think what really separates the players is not their ability to trust gut over mind or vice versa, but to be able to figure out what the situation REALLY is all about. I have to give up a position of ease at a table that is willingly letting me take their chips for a 45% chance of winning one medium sized pot but risk giving up 55% of the time the ability to take small pots 80% of the time...the math is simple. You fold and you continue taking the easier money. If you aren't risking that position, you call, even if you are beat, if you are getting the right price as your hypothetical proposes.Stack dynamics are so important in a tourney. As the chips flow from right to left, I'm more willing to take a chance at losing a pot to a player on my right, knowing I have a positional advantage to take those chips back away later, easier. I'm less inclined to give that same edge to an opponent on my left who will become more difficult, all things being equal, to get back from later. This really goes to the heart of some important Gigabet theory, whom I'm sure many of you have read, and it really helps to reread as you improve your game. So no, I'm not completely dependent on my gut whatsoever. I'm more of a mathematical player than any of these posts will have you believe actually, especially online where it's harder to get a grip of the feel of the hand. But to experiment and train, you should definitely consider playing some tourneys flying completely by your gut and seeing where it takes you, if for nothing else than to practice. (and lord no....I don't mean "I can just feel the gutshot hitting" Doug Lee mentality.....but close)

[ObeyTheDog 0]

double post

[mtdesmoines 3]

See to me this seems like a good board for op to check raise with air/let alone a draw vs a villain who opens constantly from position and c-bets often. As villain I would think likely if hero has a Q why wouldn't he half pot it and hope I raise, when i get check raised I would think "well i don't think he plays trips like this so is he check raising with a draw or with air because he knows my tendencies," I'm coming over the top here with a wide range of hands expecting hero to fold to the pressure especially if he's been uber tight. Perhaps I'm over thinking it.

Conversely, if I've got the monster draw cards, I can be sure hero has a queen.

[mtdesmoines 3]

I think most peoples opinions are skewed by the fact that we know PM lost the hand. If that wasnt known this would be a one page thread where everyone says insta-call. I mean really its only become a tough decision ...

... when villain shoved on our nitty check-raise.

[Mercury69 3]

Villain had KJc? Tough spot, I think if you're playing to go deep (obviously are..) you call here, but I think folding is definitely the more conservative/safe play. I doubt I lay this down... I mean it's TRIP QUEENS!

I'm going with KJc or J9c for the villain. Almost certainly a flush draw. If he has AQ or KQ (putting all the Q's in play), well, gg you. That's often the kind of hand that wipes me out online. Some jackass has perfect-perfect in his hand to skewer me after I've flopped two pair, trips or a set wtf.Oh, well, PMJ, you'll be back!

[mtdesmoines 3]

I really like your thinking OtD. For everyone who says "insta-call" for all of our chips, let's reset the stage a little. Hero has 155k in chips. Villain has 200k. Blinds are 800/1600 with a 200 ante. Villain makes it 5k -- his standard raise. Hero flopped trip queens, checks, villain bets 10k into the 12.6k pot; hero raises to 30k. Villain takes 3-5 seconds, and insta-shoves. We've got to understand that villain KNOWS we have a Q. He must KNOW it. Again, I don't see any villain -- LAG or not -- shoving a draw into a nit, into a paired board. Also important is ... "He hadn't shown down many hands besides busting an overplayed TT with AA after he had raised from EP, but had won a ton of uncontested pots using his position and his stack." So villain is making a lot of moves, but he HASN'T done a lot of showing. That means we don't know FOR SURE if he's bluffing or truly on a massive heater. He's not actually been DEFINED by the cards at showdown as a aggro/bluff/donk yet. This is so critical. We need to KNOW what he is, not just think it.How many times have you ever flopped trips, lousy kicker, check-raised with it, got re-raised all-in, and been good? For me ... never. Not ever. Also, the blinds are miniscule compared to our stacks - we have 100 BB preflop. This is not the right place or time to shove trips. Again, this isn't a set, it's trips. Honestly, I think fatigue may have played a role in this call, and that hero found himself essentially drawing dead to a Q or T.

[CBass1724 1]

He has KQ or QJ. I am leaning towards QJ because he raises preflop in that situation with ATC. He feels his hand is vulnerable to a big draw and wants to take it down right then and there.Edit: I know it is simple thinking but sometimes we can over think these situations. If he puts you on a big draw, he wants you to pay for it...but preferably fold. He might not put you on a Q, but if he does, he could think his J is good. He shoved not wanting a call but somehow he hit his Yahtzee flop vs us.

[Dratj 0]

he doesnt.the house we live in is paid off. Not every 25 year old male is an introvert. Have you seen the show Entourage? If no, let me just say that sometimes people have what are called "friends" sometimes these "friends" have wealthy parents who own large companies. These parents will usually purchase things for their children, and those children often share these purchases with friends.In this example, its a 2400sq ft home with 4 bedrooms. 2 of which are being rented out by his "friends".hope that helped.

Lucky friend you've got here. 335 is a sweet car.

[PMJackson21 0]

We should ask JC and let him talk. I'd guess, though I'm not sure, that he was frustrated by the WSOP prelims.

Good posts as usual Obey...Heh JC was obv one of the first people I called to talk to about the hand. He was on break at a Venetian deepstack, so he didn't go in depth, but he was pretty much in the 'instacall' group. We didn't really get in depth about the flop play, but he said something along the lines of 'there is no way i am ever folding there' (obv more colorful then that ).Other then posters here, pretty much the only person that said fold was my friend Tom West, Tmay's brother. He is also probably the closest to my style of play, so obviously I am able to see his line of thinking. Like he said though, it's one of those sick spots where you pretty much get the flop you are looking for (qq9 one time dealer?), and then you get shipped on and the possibility that you are beat is there. Similar to set over set situations.I think the discussion hasn't grinded to a halt yet, so I hesitate in posting results. Blak ( I think it was him) wanted the turn card so people could discuss how it would play out if I check/call, and since that sort of thing is more of what I've been analyzing personally, I think that's fine:Turn - Jd

[Mercury69 3]

I really don't think he's got the case Q here. I think he's on a monster draw, like I said, maybe even a Royal.Are there results somewhere in here?

[CBass1724 1]

He has KQ or QJ. I am leaning towards QJ because he raises preflop in that situation with ATC. He feels his hand is vulnerable to a big draw and wants to take it down right then and there.Edit: I know it is simple thinking but sometimes we can over think these situations. If he puts you on a big draw, he wants you to pay for it...but preferably fold. He might not put you on a Q, but if he does, he could think his J is good. He shoved not wanting a call but somehow he hit his Yahtzee flop vs us.

Turn - Jd

weeee, amirite?

[zimmer4141 0]

OK, turn is a Jd, a pretty good card for us.By my line, we check/call 5k preflop and check/call 10k on the flop. With this card, it is possible we've been beat, but it is unlikely that this card improved his hand to where we had the best hand on the flop, but are now beaten. I would probably check again, he'll probably bet 15-20k, I would call and re-evaluate the river.

[RDog 0]

OK, turn is a Jd, a pretty good card for us.By my line, we check/call 5k preflop and check/call 10k on the flop. With this card, it is possible we've been beat, but it is unlikely that this card improved his hand to where we had the best hand on the flop, but are now beaten. I would probably check again, he'll probably bet 15-20k, I would call and re-evaluate the river.

I don't know how great a turn card that is for us. AcKc and JJ are both hands we have put in his range. I would hate to see this card personally.

[Gallo 1]

I don't know how great a turn card that is for us. AcKc and JJ are both hands we have put in his range. I would hate to see this card personally.

Somewhere in your posts you stated that this hand might've played out differently if you check called, so I'm thinking that the turn actually slowed him down a little bit. I'm thinking he has something along the lines of Q8 or Q6. And yes, I do think he was the case Q.