So How Much Does Luck Really Have To Do With It?

[jaffash 0]

Hi Guys and Gals,I have only discovered poker 3-4 months ago. Couldn't sleep one night and turned the TV and there was this card game playing. I watched it not really understanding it, but became hooked. Since that time I've held a few family and friend poker nights and I have started playing online with "play money".So I have a lot to learn, but I am very interested in learning more. But I do have the question ..... how much is down to basic dumb luck? I know this is a no no word when discussing poker. But I watch some people play and they seem to me to be just really damn lucky. It doesn't seem to be tactics, and they seem to call on everything and go in on everything. I don't know, maybe it is because it is online and it is play money and so people play completely different. But I would like those who are more experienced to talk about this with me a little......if you don't mind.

[AcesUp46 0]

Hi Guys and Gals,I have only discovered poker 3-4 months ago. Couldn't sleep one night and turned the TV and there was this card game playing. I watched it not really understanding it, but became hooked. Since that time I've held a few family and friend poker nights and I have started playing online with "play money".So I have a lot to learn, but I am very interested in learning more. But I do have the question ..... how much is down to basic dumb luck? I know this is a no no word when discussing poker. But I watch some people play and they seem to me to be just really damn lucky. It doesn't seem to be tactics, and they seem to call on everything and go in on everything. I don't know, maybe it is because it is online and it is play money and so people play completely different. But I would like those who are more experienced to talk about this with me a little......if you don't mind.

Some ppl are just luckier than others, that's a plain fact. Asians are luckier players than others. That's why all the Asian players can play really wildly and still win all the mobneys.

[rogerwilco 0]

I don't know, maybe it is because it is online and it is play money and so people play completely different. But I would like those who are more experienced to talk about this with me a little......if you don't mind.

The reason is that you are playing with play money, not because it is online. Even on the lowest levels, $0.01/0.02 NLHE, 0.02/0.04LHE, $1 s&gs or whatever, people take what they are doing more seriously than with play money.

[jaffash 0]

So playing on this sites with play money isn't really going to teach me much about how to play the game properly.There are local games that are free to enter, which i am thinking about doing, but I'm just not sure about putting money down when I'm not that crash hot yet. Local games would have to be treated a little bit more seriously.

[rogerwilco 0]

So playing on this sites with play money isn't really going to teach me much about how to play the game properly.There are local games that are free to enter, which i am thinking about doing, but I'm just not sure about putting money down when I'm not that crash hot yet. Local games would have to be treated a little bit more seriously.

Well, I won't advise you to deposit money if you don't feel comfortable doing that anyway, but: no, you won't learn much apart from reading the board and maybe odds+outs a bit from playing with play money.

[PositionPlayer 0]

there's definitely luck involved for sure. you seldom get people to put all their money into a pot when they are drawing absolutely dead, 0% chance of winning. You'll often be a favorite (you hope) so luck does play a part, but so does math. I mean, play 1,000,000 hands where you're a 70% favorite to win and the hand history will reflect just that. Don't put too much stock into luck but also don't completely discount it. I wouldn't recommend just depositing money online and jumping into real cash games for too much money. Go sit in a Borders and read Super System 2's chapter on No Limit -- or read some other poker books. They're $30 a pop so get some free reading time in first to decide if this is something you really want to pursue.

[Foldalotamus 0]

there's more luck than some would claim is my small experience humble opinion...e.g., Barry Greenstein had pocket kings against pocket sixes recently...a six flops...down goes Barry...is that skill or luck?G (-:

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

It's all relative.

[TheBoobster 0]

In order to to win at poker, especially in tournaments, you have to win most of the hands where you get your money in as a marginal favourite. Many times in your poker career you will get sucked out on, that is, someone will beat you with a worse hand. Luck does play a part in poker, but not the most important part. It's important for new players to be prepared for the variance that most experienced players are familiar with. You will be the victim of many suck outs and bad beats. You have to pick yourself up and keep playing. As long as you are able to get your money in with the best hand, you will win at poker over the long term.

[qyayqi 11]

i'll disagree. you can learn with play money if YOU take it seriously. this is not an easy thing to do. you won't have as many opportunities to learn advanced stuff with players that stay in hands because their cards or pretty or 9's have been lucky for them, but you can give yourself a solid leg up on abc poker skills. you'll get out of it what you put in. i'd encourage you to play more tourneys/sngs and freerolls rather than ring games. the first hour weeds out most of the crazies, and after that you can start trying various tactics that you read about. just be sure you are reading about various tactics & not flying blind.at first it IS mostly luck. you'll be playing the cards you are dealt. but each time you pull a well-planned bluff, that is skill. not luck. and it accumulates chips. jamming your chips on the river and putting your head between your knees to kiss your azz goodbye is NOT a well-planned bluff in most cases.

[snooptoddd 0]

but each time you pull a well-planned bluff, that is skill. not luck.

You can't bluff anyone in play money games ... people will call you with a four flush and four to a straight on the board with jack high.I agree with your point about freerolls though ... once people put in 3-4 hours and they're on the bubble, they start to take things pretty seriously.

[qyayqi 11]

you can bluff play money. my favourite was to start with a small raise, and double it on each street if everyone was calling. the river one got folds. you can't use all in as a bluff, it lets them off the hook of having to play their cards-- they can just push & pray.

[Scanner313 0]

Skill will reduce your chances of losing a hand. Luck can turn that advantage on its head.

[UncleHoot 0]

Skill will reduce your chances of losing a hand. Luck can turn that advantage on its head.

QFT

[Foldalotamus 0]

Skill will reduce your chances of losing a hand. Luck can turn that advantage on its head.

+2

[a__thekevlar__2 0]

some sites are rigged, don't play on those

[BearCanada 0]

The bottom line is luck really has nothing to do with it. It really is the truth. For hands where you are 94% to win, take that hand over 10,000 hands and you will win 92-95% of the time. Luck is about perception. When you lose that 94% three times in a row you will call it bad luck instead of the statistical anomoly that it is. Learn to play high percentage poker consistently, Learn good bank roll management and you will be a winning player. Until very recently I believed in luck and it contributed to my contiuing to be a bad player. I am just recently able to call myself a winning player. Seeing poker in a long term approach with statisticly consistant play is what has made the difference. In the short term that stats don't always work out, in the long term they always do. If you keep track of your losses you will see that more often then not you made a mistake where you played in a way where you did not or were not consistantly making statisticly smart decisions. I'm not a math a guy, not by a long shot but learning to play smart poker is the key to winning poker. Now if you want to be a pro I think there is a lot more finesse and specific skill that goes into reads and situational poker but that is a higher level. If you want to win on the internet it is simple, just learn to play smart consistently. Another way to look at it is luck happens in any given hand but the numbers show that over the long haul there is no luck. My two cents.-BearCanada

[IQCrash 1]

So playing on this sites with play money isn't really going to teach me much about how to play the game properly.There are local games that are free to enter, which i am thinking about doing, but I'm just not sure about putting money down when I'm not that crash hot yet. Local games would have to be treated a little bit more seriously.

Aww thanks, buddy. Don't worry, you'll get there.

[nutzbuster 7]

Hi Guys and Gals,I have only discovered poker 3-4 months ago. Couldn't sleep one night and turned the TV and there was this card game playing. I watched it not really understanding it, but became hooked. Since that time I've held a few family and friend poker nights and I have started playing online with "play money".So I have a lot to learn, but I am very interested in learning more. But I do have the question ..... how much is down to basic dumb luck? I know this is a no no word when discussing poker. But I watch some people play and they seem to me to be just really damn lucky. It doesn't seem to be tactics, and they seem to call on everything and go in on everything. I don't know, maybe it is because it is online and it is play money and so people play completely different. But I would like those who are more experienced to talk about this with me a little......if you don't mind.

Its a skill game man!Unless you play online....that's rigged.GL!

[Foldalotamus 0]

3 hands:the rng just gave your opponent a flush on the river, playing 2 7the rng just gave another opponent a flush on the river, playing 7 5the rng just gave another opponent a straight on the river, playing 2 4have a nice day!G (-:

[IQCrash 1]

3 hands:the rng just gave your opponent a flush on the river, playing 2 7the rng just gave another opponent a flush on the river, playing 7 5the rng just gave another opponent a straight on the river, playing 2 4have a nice day!G (-:

are you high right now?

[Doug 0]

I think poker is perhaps not a game of luck but a game of likeliness.For example I hold AA, person B holds 77. I know that I am going to win about 80%ish of the time BUT I also know my aces will lose to the 7's about 20%ish of the time. Another example is AKs against a holding of perhaps 76s. I know that I am less likely to win this hand and that I am not such a strong favourite but I should still win the majority of the time. If you are looking for a set percentage of luck as I have heard many people discuss (mainly in pubs) then you are going to be disappointed. There isn't a set amount of luck and skill to poker it is all relative to the cards which are dealt and the way in which they are played. Some hands may be 0% luck whilst others may be 99%. It changes in each scenario.

[Balloon guy 158]

Luck gives you a 4% edge on average.5% is you are Asian

[Smacciemac 3]

So playing on this sites with play money isn't really going to teach me much about how to play the game properly.There are local games that are free to enter, which i am thinking about doing, but I'm just not sure about putting money down when I'm not that crash hot yet. Local games would have to be treated a little bit more seriously.

Definately check out the free local games. I belong to a free poker league myself. It give me good practice and most of the players play pretty serioulsy. The reason they play seriously in my league is because at the end of the season, the winner of the championship wins an entry to any WPT or WSOP event of their choice. It is a really good place to start.. we always accept newcomers and explain things etc.. to them.

[TwoFourOffsuit 0]

Hi Guys and Gals,I have only discovered poker 3-4 months ago. Couldn't sleep one night and turned the TV and there was this card game playing. I watched it not really understanding it, but became hooked. Since that time I've held a few family and friend poker nights and I have started playing online with "play money".So I have a lot to learn, but I am very interested in learning more. But I do have the question ..... how much is down to basic dumb luck? I know this is a no no word when discussing poker. But I watch some people play and they seem to me to be just really damn lucky. It doesn't seem to be tactics, and they seem to call on everything and go in on everything. I don't know, maybe it is because it is online and it is play money and so people play completely different. But I would like those who are more experienced to talk about this with me a little......if you don't mind.

On average, luck doesn't have as much to do with success in Hold'Em as skill. Skill minimizes bad luck opportunities and maximizes good luck opportunities. Yes, luck helps you and hurts you in certain instances, and if you play in the wrong environments, then luck will play too much of a role. But then again, that's a matter of skill, not just poker skill, but deciding what, where and when you play.