dna4ever 2 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Both of those are sucker bets at even odds. You needed at least 6:1 on Danny Boy having 50K+ to make it a sane bet, and probably 5:2 or so if you're betting on him having 180K+ by the end of day 2. Don't get me wrong - I'm a huge believer in DN's skills - there are just too many ways to lose a bet like that. Looking at yesterday's bet for instance. Only one person in five will ever have a stack over 50K, but that's by the end of the tournament. Many of the people, say 60%, will not reach that pinnacle by the end of day one, and of those who do, almost 50% will drop below 50K by the end of the day. This makes the odds of a random player having 50K+ by the end of the day at about 24:1 against. Edit: Actual results from Day 1a and 1b show it to 26:1 against No doubt, Daniel is much better than a random player, so you can maybe double, or very generously triple his odds to set the line at 8:1 against; They are still nowhere near even. A better bet you could make tomorrow would be that Daniel will reach 180K in chips at some point in time before he goes broke. This would be about 11:10 for a random player with his chip stack, but is probably 3:4 for Negreanu. If you insist on putting a time constraint on it, you should really ask for 2:1 odds or better. But if you do make this bet, I'll be rooting for you to win. Go DN!remind me to never make a bet with you....EVER Link to post Share on other sites
matt21sz 0 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Both of those are sucker bets at even odds. You needed at least 6:1 on Danny Boy having 50K+ to make it a sane bet, and probably 5:2 or so if you're betting on him having 180K+ by the end of day 2. Don't get me wrong - I'm a huge believer in DN's skills - there are just too many ways to lose a bet like that. Looking at yesterday's bet for instance. Only one person in five will ever have a stack over 50K, but that's by the end of the tournament. Many of the people, say 60%, will not reach that pinnacle by the end of day one, and of those who do, almost 50% will drop below 50K by the end of the day. This makes the odds of a random player having 50K+ by the end of the day at about 24:1 against. Edit: Actual results from Day 1a and 1b show it to 26:1 against No doubt, Daniel is much better than a random player, so you can maybe double, or very generously triple his odds to set the line at 8:1 against; They are still nowhere near even. A better bet you could make tomorrow would be that Daniel will reach 180K in chips at some point in time before he goes broke. This would be about 11:10 for a random player with his chip stack, but is probably 3:4 for Negreanu. If you insist on putting a time constraint on it, you should really ask for 2:1 odds or better. But if you do make this bet, I'll be rooting for you to win. Go DN!I think, and I could be wrong here, that you have what they call in the industry: "A Gambling Problem". Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 I think, and I could be wrong here, that you have what they call in the industry: "A Gambling Problem".no he actually looks at every bet rationally using math, logic, and common sense.he has gambling solutions not a gambling problem. Link to post Share on other sites
westendwaz 0 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 i'll write it again...Fid and DN, if you get hype watching rocky III. download the song "intro" by EPMD off their "out of business" CD. Trust me on this, it was good for an extra 4-inches on my high jumping, it will be good for a quick day 2 double up.... Link to post Share on other sites
SwamiSwan 0 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 85,800 actually...Awesome....."Go for it". Try watching the last 20 minutes of "Excalibur" or The Battle of Fallkirk in "Braveheart". Mel...Ive done stupid things when I'm drunk too: all is forgiven. Link to post Share on other sites
Autologic 0 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Both of those are sucker bets at even odds. You needed at least 6:1 on Danny Boy having 50K+ to make it a sane bet, and probably 5:2 or so if you're betting on him having 180K+ by the end of day 2. Don't get me wrong - I'm a huge believer in DN's skills - there are just too many ways to lose a bet like that. Looking at yesterday's bet for instance. Only one person in five will ever have a stack over 50K, but that's by the end of the tournament. Many of the people, say 60%, will not reach that pinnacle by the end of day one, and of those who do, almost 50% will drop below 50K by the end of the day. This makes the odds of a random player having 50K+ by the end of the day at about 24:1 against. Edit: Actual results from Day 1a and 1b show it to 26:1 against No doubt, Daniel is much better than a random player, so you can maybe double, or very generously triple his odds to set the line at 8:1 against; They are still nowhere near even. A better bet you could make tomorrow would be that Daniel will reach 180K in chips at some point in time before he goes broke. This would be about 11:10 for a random player with his chip stack, but is probably 3:4 for Negreanu. If you insist on putting a time constraint on it, you should really ask for 2:1 odds or better. But if you do make this bet, I'll be rooting for you to win. Go DN!Well if you must know, I got 4:1 odds on the first bet.... so I would have only lost $25 bucks. My friend is a real DN hater for some reason, but I always have supported Daniel (Even though he now lives in Vegas, he still represents the T-Dot and Canada so he deserves our repect imo).We just agreeded on the final bet... $50 bucks, 2:1 odds. DN must finish 150k+ by Day 2. (I might be getting screwed over a bit, but I dont care)Go DN go!!! Link to post Share on other sites
Mom of Protege 0 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 nice work kid...can i borrow that copy of Rocky III?I'm at 11,750..card dead the final level....but still alive!Not to worry, Brian...you're doing great and we're all behind you at home...I know those chips will start to build on Day 2. Congrats on making it past Day 1....that's the toughest part! Keep your focus and you will rise to the occasion. We'll be following you on Day 2 and wishing you the best of luck!!!Great work, Daniel, you are surely the pro! Keep it up.... Would love to see Brian at the final table with you! Link to post Share on other sites
Wandigo 1 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Not to worry, Brian...you're doing great and we're all behind you at home...I know those chips will start to build on Day 2. Congrats on making it past Day 1....that's the toughest part! Keep your focus and you will rise to the occasion. We'll be following you on Day 2 and wishing you the best of luck!!!Great work, Daniel, you are surely the pro! Keep it up.... Would love to see Brian at the final table with you!CoolestMomEver. Link to post Share on other sites
quadaces 0 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Damn and I had Kathy Liebert on my fantasy teamWell played....NH Link to post Share on other sites
Gods Balls 0 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 DANIELi saw your video about Day 1. don't give yourself up so easily. take advantage of bad playing donkey idiots, like i do online everyday. but to openly scream "my table plays so bad", surely someone has been on the phone home saying "DN" is at MY TABLE! and they might hear this stuff. again, TAKE ADVANTAGE, don't let the cat out of the bag... Link to post Share on other sites
nutzbuster 7 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Awesome day one Daniel!Take this one down. I wish I coould play my day one over again, but oh well.Good Luck Man!!! Link to post Share on other sites
Glitch29 0 Posted August 1, 2006 Share Posted August 1, 2006 I think, and I could be wrong here, that you have what they call in the industry: "A Gambling Problem".no he actually looks at every bet rationally using math, logic, and common sense.he has gambling solutions not a gambling problem. Yeah - I'm just a math nerd. I've never bet sports in my life. Link to post Share on other sites
tizzerd 0 Posted August 1, 2006 Share Posted August 1, 2006 bet ya 50 bucks thats a lie? Link to post Share on other sites
eYank 0 Posted August 1, 2006 Share Posted August 1, 2006 Any updates for Day 2? Link to post Share on other sites
chester97 0 Posted August 1, 2006 Share Posted August 1, 2006 Any updates for Day 2?dn doesn't play until tomorrow i don't think. days 1A and 1B get put together in day 2A, while 1C and 1D play in 2B, which is tomorrow. at least i think. may have confused myself with my number/letter math logic. Link to post Share on other sites
eYank 0 Posted August 1, 2006 Share Posted August 1, 2006 dn doesn't play until tomorrow i don't think. days 1A and 1B get put together in day 2A, while 1C and 1D play in 2B, which is tomorrow. at least i think. may have confused myself with my number/letter math logic.i think ur right, my bad thanks Link to post Share on other sites
Ninerman 0 Posted August 1, 2006 Share Posted August 1, 2006 Good Luck DN. Play well. Routing for you big time. Don't worry... no pressure..... Link to post Share on other sites
dodgygeordie 0 Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 DN,The dude at your table with the hat and all the chips is Adam Jones from South Dakota. He's never won anything of note but is a decent player. Don't confuse him with Adam Jones the guitarist from the band "Tool". GL tomorrow/today (i'm in a different timezone) Link to post Share on other sites
13CARDS 0 Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Daniel's Table for today.. Link to post Share on other sites
Jadaki 0 Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Daniel's Table for today..Looks like a good table for DN, the one guy who has him outchipped is to his right and there are no other pro's there. Link to post Share on other sites
delphi12 0 Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Awesome....."Go for it". Try watching the last 20 minutes of "Excalibur" or The Battle of Fallkirk in "Braveheart". Mel...Ive done stupid things when I'm drunk too: all is forgiven.Yeah, you are probably one of the guys who loses a bet on fcp and calls me a Jew (or N.g..r), like thats supposed to be an insult. Anybody who forgives Mel Gibson is a bigot, himself. Congratulations on joining that club. And theres nothing you can say that will change the minds of me, or anyone else on this site. Maybe others felt the same way, but they arent stupid enough to write it. Link to post Share on other sites
pdaconq9 0 Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Daniel's Table for today..Hey, is there a site that has all of the table assignments up? If so, where can I find it? Thanks. Link to post Share on other sites
chester97 0 Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 damn thats a big difference in chips at that table. DN and that Adam Jones have 60% of the chips. hopefully he can catch some cards. Link to post Share on other sites
XX44466XX 0 Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Daniel's Table for today..TY Link to post Share on other sites
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