My Wsop Main Event Bust Out Hand

[RDog 0]

I'm guessing he's looking to stir poker discussion in a poker forum. I was going to reply with more but in the grand scheme of things your post is just a post and I just don't give a damn.

Go figure.

[RDog 0]

FWIW I hope PMJ doesn't post villains hand or the turn/river cards. They add nothing to the discussion.

I disagree. Although I agree with Pat in letting the thread sit here for a while, I think it adds a ton of information for the rest of us. It lets us know what hands people might be shoving with here and gives us a ton of info of how someone outside this forum would play this hand from the Villains perspective.

[psujohn 0]

So are you saying that we should call, or that it was a mistake to c/r? I mean if we realize that it was a poor time to c/r then we can cetainly find a fold.

Neither. I'm saying that if we c/r we need to call. Basically because as Astros said his range is huge here and includes a ton of hands we're solidly ahead of.Sometimes we do gain additional info from additional actions by our opponent. I don't think this is really the case here. Name one hand that villain can raise pf, lead the flop but not push to our c/r? Our c/r here can very easily look like air on a super scary board. Of course many villains are not capable of doing this with complete air but I'm not sure our villain in this case isn't.As for the results spoiling the discussion - we already know you called and villain won the hand - otherwise it wouldn't be your bustout hand. I don't think that what he had in this particular case makes any difference as to whether you should have called. The decision to call is based on your read, your tourney situation and the range of hands you can put villain on. Whether he called with 3c4c and sucked out or pushed TT and held makes no real difference. IMHO the most interesting part of the discussion is how we got to this point in the hand and how we could have played it differently to this point. I think I'm likely to have played it just like OP did with the c/r - though I insta-call the push since hell I've got 3 Qs. After reading Obey the Dog though I'm inclined to think that the c/r was the worst of our options. Though of course that opinion is colored by the fact that I know villain pushed to the c/r.

[mtdesmoines 3]

Sorry I lost your interest. Now, my ego does need a boost... :(I'm not trying to be a prick drawing it out, I'm allowing it to be seen/discussed by everyone before effectively ruining the debate. Regardless of intentions, people aren't usually able to analyze a hand correctly if they know the results.

Well, we DO know you lost. I still say if you're afraid of the draw and he's aggro, then check-call the flop and push a safe turn. I still think because of the action, he flopped tens full.And, again, I'm thinking of this from the villain's perspective ... I confess to putting on the aggro-donk hat once in a while. When the table nit check-raises you, you aren't pushing him off the hand (as we know), and if you're going in, you have to have a decent made hand, if you plan on succeeding as a super-lag. The villain flopped tens full and his only thought was, "geez, did this rock check-raise me because he just flopped queens full over my tens full?"

[bobbywithani 0]

Neither. I'm saying that if we c/r we need to call. Basically because as Astros said his range is huge here and includes a ton of hands we're solidly ahead of.Sometimes we do gain additional info from additional actions by our opponent. I don't think this is really the case here. Name one hand that villain can raise pf, lead the flop but not push to our c/r? Our c/r here can very easily look like air on a super scary board. Of course many villains are not capable of doing this with complete air but I'm not sure our villain in this case isn't.As for the results spoiling the discussion - we already know you called and villain won the hand - otherwise it wouldn't be your bustout hand. I don't think that what he had in this particular case makes any difference as to whether you should have called. The decision to call is based on your read, your tourney situation and the range of hands you can put villain on. Whether he called with 3c4c and sucked out or pushed TT and held makes no real difference. IMHO the most interesting part of the discussion is how we got to this point in the hand and how we could have played it differently to this point. I think I'm likely to have played it just like OP did with the c/r - though I insta-call the push since hell I've got 3 Qs. After reading Obey the Dog though I'm inclined to think that the c/r was the worst of our options. Though of course that opinion is colored by the fact that I know villain pushed to the c/r.

So a call seems good based on opponents range. I think that our c/r actually widens his range quite a bit, to include something as weak as AK here, given the fact that it is a scary board and we c/r'd the hand. I have little experience in tourneys, something I'm working on, but it seems that this is a perfect flop for Hero to steal on, so a somewhat thiking villian might push viewing the c/r as weakness. I could be way off base though.

[irishguy 14]

Well, we DO know you lost. I still say if you're afraid of the draw and he's aggro, then check-call the flop and push a safe turn. I still think because of the action, he flopped tens full.And, again, I'm thinking of this from the villain's perspective ... I confess to putting on the aggro-donk hat once in a while. When the table nit check-raises you, you aren't pushing him off the hand (as we know), and if you're going in, you have to have a decent made hand, if you plan on succeeding as a super-lag. The villain flopped tens full and his only thought was, "geez, did this rock check-raise me because he just flopped queens full over my tens full?"

To me unless villain puts op on a strong Q it makes verly little sense to shove tens full here. Knowing that OP is a rock he isn't likely to get called from much else (obv also oesfd) wouldn't it make more sense lf villian were to call and hope the draw hits on the turn if this were the case?

[TB17 0]

His M is only 5 here, I like the pushing allin especially when both blinds are nits.

If they are nits then then you know they are less likely to repop u with air making a raise to like 15-20k better

[mtdesmoines 3]

To me unless villain puts op on a strong Q it makes verly little sense to shove tens full here. Knowing that OP is a rock he isn't likely to get called from much else (obv also oesfd) wouldn't it make more sense lf villian were to call and hope the draw hits on the turn if this were the case?

No way. Villain knows hero has a made hand with QQQxx and he's going to call an all in. Again, why wait for overs to fall? Why wait for the flush or straight to appear and get action killed? And again, why push a draw into an interested nit with a paired board? That's stupid.

[irishguy 14]

No way. Villain knows hero has a made hand with QQQxx and he's going to call an all in. Again, why wait for overs to fall? Why wait for the flush or straight to appear and get action killed? And again, why push a draw into an interested nit with a paired board? That's stupid.

Meh I see your point here but i think its less likely that villain puts op on a queen as opposed to a draw. I think villain thinks op is check raising light here based on table image, As stupid as pushing a draw into an interested nit here seems doesn't mean its not so. I don't think villain is expecting to be called here.

[drcossack 0]

Action folded to an older Mexican gentlemen (Daniel Elizando, from Monterey, Mexico – I did my homework the night before), who had about 200k and had been pretty aggressive. He hadn't shown down many hands besides busting an overplayed TT with AA after he had raised from EP, but had won a ton of uncontested pots using his position and his stack. Throughout the day it had probably folded to him 10-12 times on the button, and he had raised my BB all but once or twice. I had defended once, with A9ss, and check folded the flop. It had gotten to the point that the SB and I had teased about always raising our blinds.

Keep going back to this snippet of the first post, so my last visible post is TB17's.irish - That's if it does hit. What happens on the turn when a blank comes?The only hands that make sense given his shove to PMJ's c/r are AK, a set with a better kicker (maybe worse, but given that PMJ is a rock, I don't think he'd go with a bet/shove line on the flop with Q8-Q2), KJcc, K9cc, Q10, Pocket 10's, Jacks, and J9cc*. KK/AA will probably fold on the flop - he's aggressive, but from what I understand, he's not an idiot.*I highly doubt he'd raise PF with this, but it's possible given PMJ's view of his table image, and it fits a bet/shove line on this flop. Jacks are probably at the bottom of his shoving range here, but he MAY think his open-ended straight draw is good against a set.edited to include KJ clubs. Not sure how I forgot it in my analysis...

[tskillz187 0]

PMJ you seem to be happy with your push, I think it's close and err on the side of folding with the way that you play. How close were you to folding? Also, all people saying OMG obv push, obv fold, obv drawing hand, I think it's pretty clear nothing is obvious and that it's close either way and villain is not def on a flush draw.

[chowds4 0]

my guess is either J9c or KJc..-i would have check called that flop with the goal of limiting the pot size.(b/c of deepstacks)..a check-raise only forces you into a difficult decision/situatuion..if a scare card comes off on the turn(or if the villan makes a huge move at the pot), you can get away from your hand without losing too many chips)..i'm not a big fan of shipping all of my chiips into the middle without being close to sure of what the villan is holding...personally, i prefer live poker, b/c of interesting situations like this..i would have put alot of the decision on my read of my opponennts reaction, when i smooth called his flop bet..

[irishguy 14]

Keep going back to this snippet of the first post, so my last visible post is TB17's.irish - That's if it does hit. What happens on the turn when a blank comes?The only hands that make sense given his shove to PMJ's c/r are AK, a set with a better kicker (maybe worse, but given that PMJ is a rock, I don't think he'd go with a bet/shove line on the flop with Q8-Q2), K9, Q10, Pocket 10's, Jacks, and J9cc*. KK/AA will probably fold on the flop - he's aggressive, but from what I understand, he's not an idiot.*I highly doubt he'd raise PF with this, but it's possible given PMJ's view of his table image, and it fits a bet/shove line on this flop. Jacks are probably at the bottom of his shoving range here, but he MAY think his open-ended straight draw is good against a set.

I agree with the bolded part and thought about that after my post. As for his range based on villains positional aggression I would say its as likely that he has a worse Q as it is that he has a better one. I'd also KJcc, KJcx, AcXc and 9c8c etx into your mix which puts us as a about a 60/40 fav

[mtdesmoines 3]

Meh I see your point here but i think its less likely that villain puts op on a queen as opposed to a draw. I think villain thinks op is check raising light here based on table image, As stupid as pushing a draw into an interested nit here seems doesn't mean its not so. I don't think villain is expecting to be called here.

I just don't see villain thinking OP/nit is check-raising with a draw on a paired board.

[bobbywithani 0]

I just don't see villain thinking OP/nit is check-raising with a draw on a paired board.

Well PMJ should definetly clear up how much of a nit he was viewed as, on a board like this and the fact that hero was in the BB it does not seem that un-likely that the villian could view our raise as a steal attempt.

[irishguy 14]

I just don't see villain thinking OP/nit is check-raising with a draw on a paired board.

See to me this seems like a good board for op to check raise with air/let alone a draw vs a villain who opens constantly from position and c-bets often. As villain I would think likely if hero has a Q why wouldn't he half pot it and hope I raise, when i get check raised I would think "well i don't think he plays trips like this so is he check raising with a draw or with air because he knows my tendencies," I'm coming over the top here with a wide range of hands expecting hero to fold to the pressure especially if he's been uber tight. Perhaps I'm over thinking it.

[monix 0]

Here is my $.02….If you put villain on a range of all club flush draws, all the straight draws, all reasonable Qx combos, all straight draws and overplayed JJ, AA and KK you get:Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 64,350 games 0.005 secs 12,870,000 games/secBoard: Qc Qs TcDead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 72.291% 71.24% 01.05% 45846 673.50 { Qd9d }Hand 1: 27.709% 26.66% 01.05% 17157 673.50 { KK+, JJ-TT, AcKc, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KJs, J9s, AQo, KJo+, J9o }With 7:3 edge against this range a call is very clear for me…

[drcossack 0]

See to me this seems like a good board for op to check raise with air/let alone a draw vs a villain who opens constantly from position and c-bets often. As villain I would think likely if hero has a Q why wouldn't he half pot it and hope I raise, when i get check raised I would think "well i don't think he plays trips like this so is he check raising with a draw or with air because he knows my tendencies," I'm coming over the top here with a wide variety of hands expecting hero to fold to the pressure especially if he's been uber tight. Perhaps I'm over thinking it.

From villain's perspective: If the hero's been uber tight, what hands could he possibly have here? Hero would probably reraise 10's preflop, and of course re-raise w/Queens. Given that, Qx is the only thing PMJ can have here.Given that hero check/raised and villain more or less insta-shoved, I don't think villain puts hero on QQ.I'm starting to over-think this. I'll stick with what I said earlier, and think about it again after I eat lunch tomorrow.

[timwakefield 68]

Great thread.

[cubsfan44 0]

I think most peoples opinions are skewed by the fact that we know PM lost the hand. If that wasnt known this would be a one page thread where everyone says insta-call. I mean really its only become a tough decision because we all know he lost the hand somehow. If we all didnt know the end result of the hand i think AA/KK would be a much bigger % of villians range. My best guess of villians holdings (completly ignoring the results) is AA/KK or Qx (with x being > 9 most of the time). Unfortunaty knowing the outcome of the hand makes my read more then likely completely wrong, but PM didnt know the outcome at the time. IMO (again doing my best to ignore the known outcome) this is an easy call.

[drcossack 0]

Great thread.

QFT. It made me like NLHE again.

[irishguy 14]

From villain's perspective: If the hero's been uber tight, what hands could he possibly have here? Hero would probably reraise 10's preflop, and of course re-raise w/Queens. Given that, Qx is the only thing PMJ can have here.Given that hero check/raised and villain more or less insta-shoved, I don't think villain puts hero on QQ.I'm starting to over-think this. I'll stick with what I said earlier, and think about it again after I eat lunch tomorrow.

As I said just because hero's been tight doesn't mean he wouldn't take a stand in this spot with a drawing hand or a 10 or air etc. This could easily be viewed as "hero making a play". As much as you can't auto assume villain can't have a big hand here b/c he raises often Villain wouldn't likely assume hero only check raises w a Q because he's tight.

[RDog 0]

Even nits get tired of getting pounded on by aggros and make plays at boards without the nuts. Villain probably realizes Pat is tired of his aggression and thinks that Pat could be putting a move on the pot with a ton of hands. Which is exactly why he could be putting it in with AA or KK here. He probably thinks Pat picked the wrong time to play back at him....so AA........shovel.

[Gallo 1]

Ok, I'm putting in my 2cents (not worth much though).His range before the flop is ATC, after his shove I've put him on only a few hands here and I don't think he has a drawing hand given the way he played it.After reading this I put the villain on a small range of hands here with his insta-push: AA, KK, AQ, KQ maybe QJScenario 1:You've already mentioned that he overplayed AA and TT earlier on, so he could be doing the same here with AA and KK and maaaaaaaaaybe even JJ (Somehow I think this is what he had for some reason). I see him playing it like this only if he's a donk, which is what it seems he is.Scenario 2:Now, if he knows that you are a tight player, being the Villain I would probably rather call your check-raise than shove all in. By you C/R I now know that you have a hand and would rather hit my drawing hand by just calling because I know that you will not fold Trips here. Therefore given this situation he would have AQ or KQ and maybe QJ and he is protecting against a draw.----------And I do really like Obey's analysis and I agree with check calling. I know I'm not a player like others, but I agree that online this is an insta shove. In deepstack I would prefer check/calling on this draw heavy board and then re-evaluate on the turn. I guess I play like that mainly due to the fact that I play with a bunch of guys who tend to chase alot no matter the price.----------My 2 cents. Not worth much, but that's all I got.

[boliRC 0]

Just my .03.I see the villain shoveling on the flop with one of two hands. Random Big Clubs, or Qx>9. If I was the villian, here's my thinking:Random Big Clubs - Ok great, I've got a huge draw here with all sorts of possibilities. Let me make a near pot bet, and see where I'm at. "I'll bet 10k". Ok, that should get him to call with a weaker draw than mine, or fold any type of Tx or random hand. He re-raises to 30k, ok. I don't see him having a boat here as he would most likely call and get it in on the turn or river, and if he has a weak queen I may be able to push him off this hand by shoving. He could be making a play at me with air, so I believe I'm ahead here 70% of the time. If he calls with any non-boat hand im at least 40/60. "I'm All In".............hahahahahahaha GG bbQx>9 - Awesome, I just flopped trips. I've got a great kicker. I'm gonna put a feeler bet out there of 10k, just to find out where he's at. Ok, he raised me to 30k. Shoot, um, well, he could be making a play at me with a weaker queen, or a big draw as well. I can't get rid of this hand, since its TRIP QUEENS (lol) with a monster kicker, I have to be ahead in most situations, so Im All In........................................hahhahahahaha gg BB