Quiz Question #13

[LuckyChewy 0]

I think the way the hand playd out moving in can't be such a bad play. Villain might have 45, aces up, unlikely lower flush, or maybe even be half defense/half value betting an ace(although he would had to have A5 or A4 imo to call the flop out of position). The only problem with moving in is since this is poker superstars and not 1$/2$ NL, is that villain may fold aces up or maybe even 45 if villain feels strongly enough that you can't raise without a flush here. To add to this, villain has left themself enough behind to play a few more pots and if it's a bluff they're throwing it away. Villain could have possibly put you on a scared 10 or a pair 44,55,66,88, or 99 that they believe is too hard to call with this river, if villain is tricky enough they may try this with a bare 3 or 2. He may put you on a bluff yourself and try to take it away with what he believes is less, but why would he call the flop with absolutly nothing correlating to that board, as anything he did call with excluding 46 and 56 have gotten there. Now, after being given all the possibilities, I would put villain on aces up here and move in. Although losing this pot essentially gives the match away due to the high blind structure, if this is an early round match getting heads up is ideal(due to the point system) and I think playing for it all in this spot isn't a bad idea at all.I hope this wasn't TOO convoluted and some can see where im trying to go with this.-Andrew

[etip 0]

OK. I'm being too subtle here. Let me spell it out for you.Lets look at all the information we have again....

What he said.(Didn't want to quote the whole thing, was too long.)

[baritonick 0]

With what hand is he only limping pre-flop AND calling a 90K raise on the flop (giving him 3-1)? I say that he has K 6, 8, or 9 . If he figured his call would allow the turn would check through, he'd be getting odds to see the river for his flush draw. Any other likely hand given the call on the flop (A2/3, 22 or 33) would probably be good for a raise pre-flop (or at least I might, to try to end a hand in which I am in bad position). So I call, because the only plausible hand that calls my all-in beats me.Maybe? I dunno. I'm still new to this.

[Vensula 0]

let's look at DN's table image and playing style... Q1) would he be willing to push all in on a stone cold bluff or semi-bluff representing the flush if he thought you had a marginal hand? A) yes, we've all seen him do it with a hands like that. Q2) if you are the villian can you call an all in after the way the hand played out. keep in mind DN checked the turn a classic, i'm drawing to the flush hand.A) that takes some serious mochizmo to do unless you have a read of DN (in this case in incorrect read) or you have him beat.Q3) in HU what are the odds of the villan having the K Q J of diamonds AND anouther diamond. that is 7 diamonds out in a HU match. a) i'm WAY to hung over after St. Guinness day to work it out BUT it's not real likely Q4) anyone willing to help me get sainted for driving the dingos (and dingo fossils) out of Minnesota?

[jsull 0]

wait, why did we check the turn?????

I may be way offbase here, but here's why I think we check the turn:We may have top pair, but our opponent may too. Our kicker sucks. Our flush draw is nice, but when our opponent has us outkicked we're almost a 3-1 underdog and pretty much need the flush to hit to win.

[polko 0]

I would probably go all-in, because it sounds like the opponent caught 2-pair on the river. Just a hunch

[Huskers12 0]

I think your opponent is going to read you for that flush if you raise and you are only going to get called on an all in if you are beat. A lower flush might even be layed down because after all what else would you be raising with (Its controversial whether or not to raise with a 10 high flush, so I dont think anyone is going to be raising with 2 pair or a set and hoping to get called). Your opponent still has plenty of chips left to fold the hand and play on if they read that they are beat. Calling is by far the best option.

[sirch1 0]

i push him all in thats just me, i dotn make it a habit of flding flushes when heads up when there are only three cards to the flush on board. I would have to have a read on him here not to commit all teh chips

[Mason00 0]

Well there are a few other things to consider here. Are the blinds going up soon? How many players are left? And since we're on the button this hand, we'll be able to see a couple of free hands (Depending how many people are still in). The way the Poker Superstars tournament is setup (or so it seems on TV), when it gets late, it just seems like an all-in fest so if you move all in there and he calls with a better flush, you'll really be hurting in chips and will basically have to move in shortly after. But if you just call and lose, you'd be at about $700k in chips and with the blinds at $30/60k, you still have an "M" of about 7. (which is pretty good considering the way that tournament is setup in the late stages) But if you move all in and he calls and shows like KQ diamonds (2 overs and flush draw on the flop), you'll be down to 200k and basically all in the next even close to legitimate hand. One way of looking at it is since you played it so aggressivley, it will be hard to put you on a flush. I agree though, I can't see him betting into the river unless he has a flush as well or if hes just trying to represent a bigger flush, maybe putting you on like 2 pair or a set and hoping you'll pay him off with that value bet on the river. I would elect to just call here. If you win, you're sitting at around $1.6 million or so (I could see my math being wrong there, lol) and you are in great chip posistion and your opponent is down to $450,000 and now you have him where you want him.But I'd now like to analyze the hand itself to maybe get a better idea of what our opponent has. We limped in on the button with 10 4 suited on the button. Im surprised the usual Daniel Negreanu didn't raise here (im sure he had a good reason, ie: bullying people around before and a short stack in the blind then taking a stand against his button raise and moving all in, etc....ok, rambling now) But anyways, since we just limped in, we really cant see where our opponent is at cause hes going to check any hand there. He could check garbage to see a flop or he could just check a monster hand and try and trap us if we do get a piece of the flop, thinking we're good. So since we didn't raise, we have not really defined our opponents hand. But then the flop comes 10c 2d 3d. This was about as good of a flop as we could get with our 10 4 diamonds. Our opponent now bets $60k, about half the pot into us. At this point, I read this as being weak. He only needs to bet half the pot cause he needs to only win this every 1 and 3 times for it to be a profittable play. But you could look at it is as, hes going to bet his powerful hand to confuse us. Let's say he had K Q diamonds and decides to fire at it, seeing where we are at. This is a very reasonable play because hes actually the favorite in the hand with the 2 suited overcards. (well since we're on a flush draw, hes actually a small dog but he can't know that as of right now) He may also think put this small bet out here making it look like a steal and wanting a raise with his big hand. Then the turn comes the 7h which does nothing and now he checks. At this point, if he had a set or 2 pair, I can't see him checking here allowing us to catch our flush and win the pot. But let's look back at the flop. He just called our $90k raise. Now what types of hands is he going to flat call us with out of posistion with 2 cards to come? At this point, I have our opponent on Kx suited. I believe if he had KQ. KJ of diamonds, hed elect to raise preflop and get the hand over with since we have posistion on him. Then again, I'm not a top professional so...heh. So at this point, I have our opponent on Kx suited (I'll venture a guess and say K6 diamonds, random 2nd card guess) Then the river falls the diamond that we needed. So at this point we're just thinking "How much can we get out of this guy?" But then he bets...$250k, which is a pretty weak bet. I cannot see this being a bluff, because he knows if he had 2 pair, we'd call for only $250k. Also, I dont think he has a set or 2 pair for the reasons above. That's what I think about this hand, criticizim is appreciated, trying to improve my game everyday, thanks for reading this ridiculous response.

[Maverick 0]

EASY ALL INI believe this is an easy decision. for starters you have the 4th nuts playing heads up. The blinds are so high in this structure that any all in isnt very large compared to the blinds or pot so you will get called with any modest hand including a pair of aces. It is very unlikely he has you beat at this point and raising gives you more +pv than just calling.

[Maverick 0]

After reviewing the information I guess the anwser is not that easy. The blinds are still not "everyone pot commited pre flop" like I usually think On SuperStars. The way the hand was played I would fold or call to someone like Slansky, Chan or Hellmuth who might not give me action on a reraise all in. I would likely go All in to someone like Williams, Matisow, or Hanson who are more known for making looser calls. The key here was both of you checked the turn and his/her bet on the river is representing the flush. I guess a call here would be a better anwser than I would have first guess.

[Jam-Fly 8]

My first thought was that he was playing like a flush draw, semi-bluffing on the flop then trying to get free cards. But then I thought, he could also have 4-5 and hit his hand with the ace. But even if he did have a flush, it could be a junk flush, he could have any two diamonds on the big blind. Im not sure what the format is for SSIII but if it is like the others where blinds go stupidly big, I'd go all in to try and accumulate chips. Its not a situation where ''you'll only get called if your beaten'', here you can beat 4-5, a lower flush, 1 pair (where s/he feels that you raised on the flop because you sensed weakness, but have now jsut abandoned your bluff), A-x (or even two pair), a bluff and any other garbage your opponent may have. And again, if it is a similar structure, your opponent will call to accumulate chips too

[Sun of Beach 0]

Opponent does not have AA, KK, QQ, JJ. Why?Because he played too weak preflop, flop, and turn.Opponent does not have 10,10. Played too weak preflop.Opponet does not have 22,33.He would have played it stronger on turn.Opponent does not have 44,55,66,88,99.The river bet is too big seeing how many draws hit.Opponent does not have 77.He would have bet preflop.-------------------------------------Does oponent have a strong ace? Unlikely because he would have raised it preflop and would maybe give it up to raise on flop.Does opponent have a weak ace?Possibly. He could have been hiding the ace preflop with the check hoping for an ace to come on board.Does opponent have broadway cards?Unlikely because he would not let us get in for free preflop.Does oponent have one broadway card and one low card offsuit or non-diamond suited?Nope, because then the river bet into a river card that makes big hands is suicide.Does oponent have one broadway card and one low card diamond suit?Well, maybe, how likely would he be to be aggressive and reraise flop? I don't know.Would he have two low cards suited diamond?This seems possible. Trying to get to a flush on the turn and getting a free card on the river and then betting. The good news is opponent's hand is a loser.Would he have two low cards unsuited or suited non-diamond?Preflop fits, get something on the flop to call our raise. Then Maybe hit the seven for the second card? ie 3 7. Try to slow play it, get unlucky on the river. Or be going with draw on 45oCould he have 4d5d? No we have 4d.category | likelyhood| how many ways to have it pockets | No |Big Ace | No |Low Ace | Possibly | 18 (A2o or A3o)Broadway | No |Big&Low | No |BigFlush | Maybe | 15LowFlush | Maybe |103 & 7 | Maybe | 9T & 7 | Maybe | 64d5d | No | 45o | Possibly | 12Let's consider a possibly worth 1 and a maybe worth 2.We win: LowAce+LowFlush+3&7+7&T+45o18+20+18+12+12=80We lose:BigFlush30I think we are an 8:3 favorite. we will get called by all those hands.... so.... All-In.

[leftygolfer 7]

If my math is correct, his bet of 250K into a pot of 420K on the river tells me that he paired his A, rag or possibly A with 2 pair.Only 3 hands I can lose against.Again, I want to end it now and even if I raise all in and lose I still have chips to play with.I say all in and win it on this hand.

[The Nuts 0]

All in. Definitely.Villain betting half the pot gives reasonable odds to chase with a flush draw (I'm not great with odds, but those are reasonable). By raising it with your flush draw/top pair, you gave the impression that you currently have a great hand and don't need odds to justify a call and thus that you don't have a flush draw. The reason there was no bet on the turn was because your raise may have scared the opponent a bit (or at least surprised him). You then improved by nailing the flush on the river and then he bets big when the ace came down.I'm thinking ace-rag. Finish him.

[dkelloway 0]

I say you just call His bet at the end signified some strength (could be defensive) with a possible two pair. You used the free card play to perfection. When he bet 1/2 the pot, it could have been a semi-bluff with the flush draw. He checked to you on 4th street which probably means that he wanted the free card aswell. When the ace came on the river, he showed no fear and bet again. I think he may have hit a higher flush, but we can't be sure, so I just call here.In addition, many players would raise with any ace, especially A 10 in the BB with one limper.Edit: When we used the free card play, an observant opponent could easily find out what you're up to. So basically, we're only getting called by the better hand. Since this is pokersuperstars, not the $1-$2 online tables, the free card play is more likely to have given away your hand.

[iggymcfly 0]

I'm definitely going all-in here. Even if he has the flush, we're less than a 2/1 underdog, and there are lots of hands he has other than the flush that could justify bet/calling. A rivered two pair and a wheel for instance are losing their chips to us all day here.

[Risingers 0]

He certainly played it like he had a flush draw, so Im probably calling. But moving all in isnt a bad play here either because you might push him off a bigger flush, or get payed off with a hand weaker than a flush.

[blakheart 3]

I have not read the responses yet, here is my thoughts.The bet could be a value bet, but looks more defensive. Here are the possiblities of his hand I see.1. Better Flush- Possible the way played, reraise puts you on a short stack this is truly a slim possiblitity I think2. Straight- His turn check makes it unlikely, most good players would bet again on theturn to price out a flush draw.3. A set- again, no bet on the turn is incorrect.4. Aces up- Very likely, bet on the end is protecting against a flush, he hopes a flush just calls, and a weaker 10 calls.5. Weaker flush, Also very likely- he makes the bet on the end hoping to get paid offI really think the bet is more defensive, which means you have him beat. He could have screwed up a straight or a set, but most likely he has aces up or a worse flush. given the stack sizes- I say you push him in. He has to call you with almost an of the above holdings. Even if you are wrong, you have enough left to fight with.

[BigEasy6 0]

I vote for call. The 60k bet on flop could have been designed to create the proper odds for a flush draw.

[Entrepeneur 0]

I think Ace/2 or Ace/3 for the Villain.Betting 2nd or 3rd pair on the flop.Thinking awhile and calling the raise on the flop.Checking the turn (possibly caus'e he's beat)Hitting the ace and betting out fairly strong on the river and possibly controlling the betting somewhat.He could very well think you're on pair of tens with decent kicker...but possibly one of those 10/something hands...He hits 2 pair on the river and feels like he's got the best hand, but isn't completely sure because of your turn check (indicating possibly flush).Bets decent size bet...possible payoff, but safe enough if you have the flush.Call or All-in...I'd probably call but..Who is the villain, who's the hero?How strong pros are they? Can they really change gears? What's their image. How tight are they? Has the hero been pushing around or the villain. How's their relationship. What was that hesitation on the flop (in hero's opinion)...acting, draw...What is the hero's take of each of their images and what does the hero think the villain thinks the hero has. I think that's the big question...I just like flopping the nuts and having them hold up....That's way easier than really trying to play the PROS post-flop who can change gears based on what they think you have.Sure love reading everyone's posts....Nice to hear tons of opinions..Mine don't mean squat...I just got pillaged at the 10/20 cent table at (other site) the last two nights. Just kept calling on the river, assuming everbody wouldn't call 3-bets with 3/7 every time to make those weird straights and 2 pairs and boats..Can't wait to hear answer.And realize why I am a professional musician and NOT NOT NOT a professional poker player.Though I did stay in a Holiday Inn last night.E

[ArcadianSky 0]

I don't see the point of re-raising the flop and coming this far in the hand to not to milk your opponent of more chips when your card finally hits.In this case, I think the fear of your opponent holding a higher flush should've been evaluated and considered in the face of the $60k raise, before the turn card even hit... what's the point of sticking out the hand and putting money in the pot looking to hit your card when you are going to play timid when it does? I would've folded to the $60k raise if I didn't think my flush would hold up in the long run, regardless of what kind of price I was getting.Anywho, on the contrary, I live by the line "Never bet the river unless the second best hand will call or the best hand will fold". In this case, the ace makes pushing all-in an even easier decision for you because it makes a number of hands you can beat- wheel and 2 pair (A 10, unlikely but possible).I wouldn't put my opponent on anything other then a draw just because the bet on the flop was to weak for a made hand (with flush and straight draw possibilities). Knowing this, I probably would've bet on the turn, and gave him a really awful price.

[Shizzmoney 0]

calling is the best option since there's a great chance that he is holding a greater hand.

I agree. The only hand that will call a re-raise on the river is the one that beats you, especially from the quality of opponents that DN is facing here for SS III. If someone had a smaller flush than DN, and DN re-raised the river, even for a min bet, they would probably assume they were beaten and lay it down. I put the villian on 45, btw, because of his hesitiation to call the re-raise on the flop (sometimes indicating a drawing hand) and then checking for a free card on the turn. I also think villina has a 45 because if he had an A-x (especially in the high rising Superstars III blind format), they would have raised preflop* from out of position to gain control of the betting and to also try to steal the blinds and antes.*Did anyone see Greenstein last night? He was playing like a maniac...just moving in on people left and right. But that;s how you got to play SS III I guess.

[Rocketwadster 0]

FWIW - Daniel never said that he was in the hand, just that it occured in SS III. Also, some people have also indicated that we have to look at the skill of our opponents. For this particular hand, clearly the skill of our opponent should be a moot issue, as it is SS III. Move the hand to a heads-up situation in a $50 SNG and then the "correct" play MAY change. I think its a clear all-in. We are not out if we do lose to a better hand, but I think that the number of hands that we beat that WILL call our re-raise in that format (blinds are fairly large, but not obscene yet) are much greater than the small number of hands that we are behind to. Tis a value raise, which will get paid off by many hands IMO. Look at decisions, not results.

[GABMAD 0]

I don't see how calling is the best option here at all...It seems as most of the posters here are trying to impress DN by saying that they would simply call with a 2 carded flush (2-carded=you use both of you whole cards). Also...to the posters who said go all in, I agree, but...a lot of people said that A 10 is a possible hand, as well as pocket pairs. With these blind strucutres, I'd be fairly confident he's move in for the rest of his chips preflop with any pocket pair, and A 10. I put him on a wheel, but I also give him credit for two pair, just not Aces and Tens...And yes he would call with soooo many hands that you have beat simply based on the odds that he's getting and the gigantic blinds...Some ppl even said that he'd fold a wheel...no he wouldn't, are you on crack?I'm sure DN will agree with going all in here.