AmScray 355 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 My college buddy Chad is going to ruin Clay Guida's life tomorrow. -500 seems quite high though. Best I see how is around -470.. Mendes is going to win but I agree 100% that there is value on Guida. I don't quite think it takes 5 parallel universes before Guida gets a decision. Still don't have a cent on this fight, though. Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Very interesting night. Seriously regretting not researching deeper into Hyun Gyu Lim. Those are the kinds of big line inefficiences you still get in MMA that haven't been seen in decades in more mainstream sports. Will be interesting to see if he can hang as a giant welter or if he starts going Rumble Johnson and missing the insane weight cut. Bullshit stoppage in the Mir fight. He was rocked, but that was nowhere near a stop. Mir was right to be angry. Its very sad to think we're essentially seeing the tail end of Barnett. What could've been... Still on the Guida war wagon. Link to post Share on other sites
Ron_Mexico 4,219 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 I was always a Mir fanboy and I difnt buy this card, but he hasnt looked good sice he picked apart Noguera in their first fight. I guess against Kongo as well. I forget the actual timeline. But think about even his wins against Lesner and Big Nog 2, he was almost stopped both times, and JDS, Carwin, Lesner, Cormier and now Barnett all beat him up. His Cro Cop fight was a turd in the punchbowl as well Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Man, decent, free fights on Fox Sports 1 later today. Would be awesome if the UFC could hit some sort of economic equalibrium where we had regular fights on broadcast, but they were able to keep their PPV revenue perhaps with major title fights, etc. My ears may have deceived me, but I swear I heard a talking head on FS1 say "Wednesday Night Fights". Maybe just said that because it's a fight on Wednesday, but weekly fights other than TUF, that would be epic. Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Did get down a $20 flier on Formiga straight @ +530 Link to post Share on other sites
Ron_Mexico 4,219 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Did get down a $20 flier on Formiga straight @ +530 Woops. Solid card. Lots of good fights. Souza is gonna be tough to beat, me thinks. I think Bader tapped Teixiera a couple of times. Surprised me. I was hoping he would stop the hype train, but Teixiera countered really well. Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Agree on both Jacare and Baders performance. He lost, Texiera is a ****ing monster but his performance was not like some embarassment like Okamis was. Link to post Share on other sites
Ron_Mexico 4,219 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I just don't see Glover beating Jones in any one area. Well, besides knockout power. Haven't seen that from Jones yet. Has he ever even wobbled anyone on the feet with a combo? Is my memory playing tricks on me? Don't get me wrong, he's lethal with his elbows and chokes when he puts people in bad spots I feel like Machida could beat jones by countering Jones' wild striking, a la Mike Brown on Faber way back when. Link to post Share on other sites
king_tanner 84 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Nobody can beat Jones at 205. The only fights that I think would be interesting would be him against JDS or Cain. I think Dana wants Jones to be champion for awhile though, so I don't see Jones moving anywhere at least for a couple of years. Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Agree, Texeria will not beat Jones, nor will anyone else. Glover will be pretty solidly in the top 5 at 205 for at least a couple more years. He's 34, he looks amazing but these are the years when the decline can come sudden and fast. That depends on genetics and how much TRT he can get away with. I imagine he'll settle somewhere in the title fight gatekeeper role for a couple years, nobody is going to he happy when it comes time to gight him, perhaps get a second shot at Jones at some point but but Bones ain't going nowhere barring a freak KO. Jones is the first example we've seen in MMA of the type of freak outlying athletic capacity that players need to make the NFL or NBA. Eventually, there will be more like him but there is absolutely nobody on the horizon that suggests someone will beat him. Hallmann actually subbing Trinaldo was one of the- if not the- most spectacular comebacks-from-the-jaws-of-deafeat I've ever seen. Good to see he got sub of the night and the 60K, however I don't think he has what it takes to fight at this level and probably won't be around very long. Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Nobody can beat Jones at 205. The only fights that I think would be interesting would be him against JDS or Cain. I think Dana wants Jones to be champion for awhile though, so I don't see Jones moving anywhere at least for a couple of years. A more interesting question would be what happens if JDS can make 205, since I doubt he beats Cain again, although who ****ing knows... He's starting to break out some shit a bit deeper than ordinary knockout artist stand and bang. It would be interested to see him fight against Cain in a rounded way, perhaps use that BJJ. Cain learned a hard lesson about running in there with caution to the wind. Junior learned a hard lesson about playing rolly-polly with a beast'y, striking wrestler. If the metrics say they're at least somewhat equal as fighters (which they do not, Cain is favored), then the rubber match is all about whoever improves most in the area least expected by their opponent and is able to use it. Junior fights at his walking-around weight right now, wikipedia says 239 so unless he has a body type that's hugely averse to weight cuts, 205 is probably within reach (although he's pretty fooking chiseled at 239). If he loses to Cain, this would not surprise me athough it's not like he's meeting a cupcake at 205. Still, he would lose to Jones but it would be very interesting. to see how Jones handles that kind of striking. Link to post Share on other sites
king_tanner 84 Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I still think JDS will get another chance or 2 with Cain (they let big foot fight Cane and he sucks ass). I don't think that weight cut could happen for JDS. He would have to lose all his muscle mass. With that said JDS vs Jones would be the most exciting match up in the whole UFC that I can think of, even more than GSP vs Silva Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 He must offer something more than knockout artistry or else this one will look just like the last one. Cain underestimated him once, won't happen again. He's needs to either hit the BJJ very hard or develop a nasty, striking guard with legitimate submission danger. Cain can stand with him and only suffer from a moderate theoretical disadvantage. Cain gets it to the ground, Junior suffers a massive non-theoretical disadvantage. Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Also, Munoz at anything + against Bisping is probably a pretty big value. I may go medium-big there. Scaling in now. I have 240 on Mitrione straight at -120. Tempted to buy Khabib instead but going with my gut. Waiting on Ricci/Jury. Slowly milking my roll for Silva/Weidman II. Been scaling in since the lines opened. Link to post Share on other sites
king_tanner 84 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Mitrione is too unpredictable to me. He is either going to KO in first round or gas out. What do you like about him? Im pretty sure im going to take Schaub who I think can equal Mitriones power and is in better shape. Im actually really surprised that Mitrione is the favorite Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I think Mitrione is overall a better mixed martial artist and Schaubs rice-paper jaw makes him a dog against any striker who isn't a total can. Both Schaub and Mitrione bring the *exact* same thing to the table, which is a higher order of athleticism, something not yet fully actuated in pro MMA. They're both NFL culls who brought their athleticism to MMA and on that basis alone were viable enough prospects to get their foot in the promotion (which really proves how much further the UFC has to go. Hint: The future looks an awful lot like Jon Jones). They both started in the UFC at the same time. They have an identical backstory, save for Schaub starting MMA earlier than Matt. I've watched all of their fights. They both got Nelsoned. Schaub has fought quite a bit more but I think Mitrione is on the upswing of his developmental trajectory. I think what you see in Shaub is all there is. Schaub is great at using his explosive athleticism to crush cans, so we know he can finish the bottom 10% of the division who are on their way to Sharkfights as we speak. Knocking out an ancient (and inherently overrated) Cro Cop is basically the brightest spot on his resume. In Johnson and Gonzaga, both reasonable but less athletic fighters, he's able to get the D. Well played. Othewise, he gets posterized with spectacular knockouts. Mitrione, aside from Nelson, fought the most boring fight in the history of fights against Kongo where they basically circled for a few rounds and refused to engage. Kongo got the leg kick win. This bet is on Mitrione coming into this fight showing the same degree of improvement he's shown in every fight he's fought thusfar (save for Kongo since they didn't actually fight.) I don't think Schaub can handle that. Lots of stream of conciousness bullshit trying to articulate what is basically 'gut'. Since this is basically an even-steven line, I'm just having a bigh hunch on Mitrione here. Shaub has no athletic edge on this guy, which is basically all he offers everyone else. It boils down to who's the better practicioner. I think Matt is. If he *does* lose to Schaub here, I think his future in the UFC is bleak. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Scram, who are you betting on in Silva/Weidman II? Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I am betting low five figures- my entire online betting roll across all sites- on Silva. I've bet half before (Werdum v Russow), but this will be my first time all in. With online poker gone, this is a very meaningful sum of money to me- more than I have deposited in the bank- so this isn't some 'look at me ballin' bet. I'm emotionally prepared to take the loss, that's part of sports betting. If I do lose, it will probably take me a year or more to grind back to where I'm at now. There are rare times when something strange occurs and you you just have to be willing to go all in. Silva essentially even against Weidman is, IMO, one of those times. Of course, I was totally wrong the first time, the line and the hive saw something in Weidman that priced him at a real premium. I agree he's a special fighter, perhaps this is age finally having a little talk with Anderson Silva (he is 38) but what happened in the first fight will not be happening again. Anderson fought him with total disregard for his skills. He really ****ed up. His 'I'm so much better than you, I'm going to fight like its a big joke" bullshit finally caught up with him. He won't do that a second time; I'm pretty sure a determined and focused Anderson Silva cannot be beaten by anyone without a firearm. I made a pile betting Cain would take it back from JDS, too. And I'll be taking him again. Link to post Share on other sites
king_tanner 84 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I find ways to lose every fight I'm 100% confident in. I lost so much on that card where Big Foot beat Overeem and Lil Nog beat Rashad. I've been backing off on betting UFC ever since then. I still found a way to load up on Lauzon though recently and lost that one too. I win all the small ones and lose the big ones. Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I find ways to lose every fight I'm 100% confident in. I lost so much on that card where Big Foot beat Overeem and Lil Nog beat Rashad. I've been backing off on betting UFC ever since then. I still found a way to load up on Lauzon though recently and lost that one too. I win all the small ones and lose the big ones. We all have those moments. I eventually just stopped betting any fight Roy Nelson is in. That miserable **** has cost me low XXXX. Still, stick with it, learn to look for value and how to appraise fighters, MMA is the last sports betting field where gigantic inefficiencies still occur on a semi-regular basis. Just remember to limit your 'action' bets, learn how to hedge with the props (a good skill for grinding). ALWAYS look for value in newcomers to the promotion. These are guys who are brought in because they look very promising. Unless they're heavily hyped from elsewhere, they're usually making their debut fight against someone low in the division and with lucrative odds. Sometimes they don't pan out but shit like JDS being +500 against Werdum are incredible opportunities for people who do their homework. I bought pretty heavy Teixeira at -200 against Kingsbury. That was shooting fish in a barrel. The guy was coming in with an absolutely ridiculous pro record, serious rumbles that he was a lock to be a top 5 fighter and you can buy him straight against Kyle ****ing Kingsury by laying 2-1? You won't get that kind of shit betting football. Link to post Share on other sites
king_tanner 84 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 After tonight's TUF episode, I don't think I want to be anywhere near Ronda Rousey. Bitch is scary Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 I'd like to be right between her thighs. I realize she's black licorice, one either think she's completely hot or completely ugly with no in between. I think she's hotter than ****. Link to post Share on other sites
king_tanner 84 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 I think she is hot too. She seems nuts though, unless that is all an act for TV. Miesha doesn't look like she has said a word to her, then Ronda flips out on her unprovoked. Link to post Share on other sites
AmScray 355 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Here I go all retard, betting for sweat instead of insight. Fade all my picks and expect to make money, since I NEVER win action bets. 165: Scaled out of Mitrione a bit. Now: $50 Mitrione straight @ -110 $10 Schaub by KO/TKO @ +515 $20 Khabib by Decision @ +155 $175 on Kimura straight @ -175 (waiting for prop lines, may bet more) $25 on Jury/Ricci under 2 1/2 Rounds @ +140 (may scale more into this) Link to post Share on other sites
NickCave 194 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 I want to hear your analysis. Link to post Share on other sites
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