**official Mma Thread**

[AmScray 355]

Mitrione/Shaub is a hedge. It's possible they circle each other for 3 rounds and someone gets the leg-kick decision, but I think it's far more likely that the fight finishes. Always gotta worry about skillset-improvement jumping out of the bushes and ****ing up your play- and that's possible because they're both still developing fighters.

 

I am betting against Schaubs jaw on Mitrione straight, however being able to hedge with Schaub by KO @ +500'ish for 20% of my Mitrione cost @ 100% payback gives me Mitrione by anything, I win, or Schaub by KO (the most likely scenario for him to win) I'm even steven.

I feel this is an incredibly strong hedge, given the way they fight. If Schaub locks in a triangle or wins by D, oh well. That's how the game goes.

 

Khabib by Decision: This is risky, not in taking Khabib (who I believe is a top 5 lightweight, maybe even top-top type guy) but betting that Pat Healy will approach this fight in such a way that, barring the old chin-music, he will be hard to finish. In spite of having dangerous subs Khabib will try to take him down anyway and work ground and pound, or strike standing. Healy will will not be engaging hard, I believe Healy fights in such a way that, unless Khabib can force action (which he damn well may be able to do), this one goes to the judges... and Khabib wins. This is basically a bet that Healy is smart enough to know what NOT to do. Of course, I've lost thousands betting that certain fighters were smart enough to stay away from Roy Nelsons overhand right and been wrong, so might want to fade this one.

 

The bigger bet on Kimura Straight: I don't think Gagnon will be able to sub him. Without that, he has nothing. I should probably bet this one by D but there just isn't enough video on Kimura against higher level fighters to make a deep call on him... but I do think right now, he's better than Gagnon and without having to lay too much of a price, I'll roll with him.

 

Jury/Ricci under 2 1/2: I don't like the price on on Jury straight but I do like him finishing Ricci before the halfway point at +140.

[AmScray 355]

"UFC Tonight" on FS1, this evening, interview with Chael Sonnen, Jon Jones basically said a move to Heavyweight is a foregone conclusion.

 

Does the UFC have anything 'written' in regards to holding titles across multiple weight classes?

 

Also, SportBet is offering +760 on Gustafsson straight. Not touching it, but ************ that is tempting...

I did put down $10 fliers on Gus winning in R3 @ +3000, R4 @ +4000 and R5 @ +5000. Normally I don't bet the suckermoney but this one is odd.

[king_tanner 84]

 

Does the UFC have anything 'written' in regards to holding titles across multiple weight classes?

 

I don't think they do. Dana has been asked this since Pettis still wants to fight Aldo at some point. His response is basically "we will deal with that when the situation occurs."

[AmScray 355]

Intardnet prattle says Jones walks around at 225, so he's cutting 20'ish to make LHW.

 

He said in an earlier interview that he plans to weigh around 240 at HW, so he would be bulking up 15# from his walking around weight, which he feels is his right power/agility equilibrium (and you know that 15# is going to be all muscle)

 

My best case scenario here:

Silva takes it back at 168, I double my entire roll.

JJ is immediately offered a fight with Cain at some tasty price (anything better then -300 I go all in again) and I double up again.

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

JJ beats Cain? Don't know about that

 

 

Really liking Meisha Tate and Rousey proving to be a petulant, head case baby

[AmScray 355]

Biggest match in UFC history and JJ beats Cain via elbow-fatality.

 

Trying to get into womens MMA but like all other womens professional sports, the relative skill level is basically like watching the High School Boys All Star Team.

 

Got down a couple medium sized bets today.

 

$100 on Michel Prazeres straight @ +125.

$200 on Pegado by Decision @ +320 (<-- results be damned, biggest line inefficiency of the night. Totally cool losing $200 here with zero regret)

 

Took off Kimura straight $175 @ 175, got in Kimura ITD $75 @ +150.

 

$20 on Omielanczuk/Prazeres/Kimura/Thompson/Jury/Khabib/Pegado/Jones parlay @ +1480

$50 on Thompson/Jury/Khabib/Pegado/Jones parlay @ +208

 

$5 flier Kimura in R3 @ +1000

$5 flier Gagnon in R3 @ +1400

 

So, in the $600'ish range bet on the night. Nothing for big-playas but a bit more than my usual threshold for an average card. A blank here would hurt, which may happen since there's a lot of props and not too many straight plays. Should probably get rid of the $50 Heavy Favorites Parlay, all fliers and the over/under on the Ricci/Jury fight to get my exposure back under $500 but letting it ride anyway.

[king_tanner 84]

Where do you bet amscray? I have to do mine on betus and they don't have anything other than straight bets and over unders. Only props on Jones vs Gustafson. I wanted to try your Mitrione straight bet with the Schaub KO, but looks like I can't... sigh

 

I also don't see a Pegado on the fight card... nm Barao = Pegado

[AmScray 355]

5dimes and Sportbet have dynamic props online.

 

Gagnon's striking improved like 9000%.

Sucks to lose, beats down the earlier win on Prazeres straight, shouldn't have had the low-info promo newcomer in the long parlay (GOD wtf was I thinking there) but Gagnon definitely earned every bit of that win.

[king_tanner 84]

Nice bet on Prazares though

[AmScray 355]

Jury/Ricci R3 will go down as the single worst round in all of 2013.

Book it.

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

That fight was awful. You could hear the people changing the channel.

 

 

I think Cain can take down and hold down JJ at this point. I admit that I could be seriously wrong.

[AmScray 355]

Rung the register on Khabib by Decision, offsets losses from the fliers in Gagnon/Kimura and $20 on the busted 8 way parlay.

 

You watch, that ****ing turd Kimura is going to be the only bad pick of 8. Right now, all I have to fade is Barao and Jones to be 7/8.

Still got the 5 way parlay breathing fresh air, just needing Barao and Jones. Not counting chickens yet, but measuring to expand the coop.

 

So brutal to lose the 8 bagger because of Kimura, though. That would've been around $300.

 

The 5'er will be good for $104 if only the two most massive favorites in the fight can win.

If I lose that parlay, it's proof the universe hates me.

[AmScray 355]

Shaub by DARCE CHOKE!

Either way, I can hear Bellator a'callin' for Mr. Mitrione. The signs were out there that Schaub was working his jits hard, asking Dana for permission to compete in that tournament, he talked about it, etc. Overestimated Mitrione who, once again, as with Nelson, fought dumb.

[AmScray 355]

Barao via TKO in Round 2, so that's -$200 (as noted, a value bet, no results oriented thinking here, I am OK with this loss and would bet it again tomorrow) but thankfully keeps the parlay alive. This will most likely be a mild loser night.

 

GOD mother**** Kimura. Flushed an 8 way parlay on that faggot which would've made the night a decent winner. That was 100% a bad decision on my part to put him in that parlay. No excuses for that. Awful (save for profitless satisfaction I can get from picking 7 of 8 winners/straight and knowing most people cannot do that very often)

[king_tanner 84]

That was the best fight I think I've ever seen

 

I have rounds 2, 4, and 5 to Jones.

 

F off Texeira give Gustafsson immediate rematch

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

I think round 2 was gus, but not definitively. I think the definitive rounds were 1, 4 and 5 and jones won two of those, so I have no major problem with the decision. Amazing fight. Gus will get a rematch, I'm sure of it. Christ he has a thick skull.

[NickCave 194]

Here I go all retard, betting for sweat instead of insight.

Fade all my picks and expect to make money, since I NEVER win action bets.

 

165:

 

Scaled out of Mitrione a bit. Now:

$50 Mitrione straight @ -110

$10 Schaub by KO/TKO @ +515

 

$20 Khabib by Decision @ +155

 

$175 on Kimura straight @ -175 (waiting for prop lines, may bet more)

 

$25 on Jury/Ricci under 2 1/2 Rounds @ +140 (may scale more into this)

 

Seems like things could hardly have gone worse...

[AmScray 355]

The tantruming on Sherdog over Gus losing is epic to proportions I've never seen before...

[AmScray 355]

Seems like things could hardly have gone worse...

 

Noted, I scaled out of Kimura later. There's more thread after that post.

 

- $50 Mitrione straight @ -110

- $10 Schaub by KO/TKO @ +515

+ $30 Khabib by Decision @ +155

- $25 on Jury/Ricci

- $10 Kimura/Gagnon R3 fliers

+ $125 on Michel Prazeres straight @ +125.

- $200 on Pegado by Decision @ +320

- $75 Kimura ITD +150.

- $20 on Omielanczuk/Prazeres/Kimura/Thompson/Jury/Khabib/Pegado/Jones parlay @ +1480

+ $104 on Thompson/Jury/Khabib/Pegado/Jones parlay @ +208

 

The real pain is in coming so close (7/8) on that huge parlay and losing it because of a bad decision.

$600'ish on the line, closing the night down $140'ish or so. Prefer to minimize nights like this, but by no means devastating. Won't be losing sleep since the overall loss was within the margin of one big value bet.

 

The bigger bet on Barao by D was a value play, I'd bet it again right now.

 

Either way, my under-estimating Gagnon cost me a straight bet, two small fliers and a huge parlay.

Little holes sink big ships.

 

Overall, though, only a mildly annoying night. Skills demonstrated in parlays, comfortable with big bet on Barao, huge ****up inserting Kimura into the big parlay. That's what leaves my ears ringing. Sometimes, it's just out of your hands (Like Ricci and Jury deciding on not fighting and losing the Under 2.5. Can't control that stuff) but Kimura in the parlay was 100% my own bad decision that I should've known not to make, it was one fight out of 8 that determined tonight was a $150'ish loser instead of a $150'ish winner.

[king_tanner 84]

The tantruming on Sherdog over Gus losing is epic to proportions I've never seen before...

 

It is frustrating to fight fans because he was so damn close, but I think logical people know that Jones won, just slightly. Jones definitely took more damage though

[AmScray 355]

It was a pretty shocking demonstration of just what role Joneses size plays at 205 and what happens to him when it's no longer in play.

[NickCave 194]

What's with the parlays? Why not just make the straight bets?

[king_tanner 84]

What's with the parlays? Why not just make the straight bets?

 

It is hard to make money betting on favorites when making straight bets

[NickCave 194]

It is hard to make money betting on favorites when making straight bets

 

What?

[AmScray 355]

What's with the parlays? Why not just make the straight bets?

 

 

You spread your risk expectation across multiple fights.

You may have had to lay -600 to take Barao, -700 to take Jones, -250 to take Khabib, -300 to take Thompson and -400 to take Jury.

To win $500, you'd have to put $2250 on the line (or to win $5, you pay $22.50)

 

Bet that they all win in a 5 way parlay, now you get +200 odds.

Now, to win $500, you only have to put $250 on the line, however you must win all 5 fights. Seems simple enough to just parlay the heavy favorites but you have to be deliberate. Over time, parlays are hard to beat since they demand perfection and exceptions occur.

 

My near-spectacular parlay performance this evening notwithstanding, it's usually pretty hard to string long ones together.

 

8/8 parlay paid $1480 for every $100 bet. Huge odds. It's hard to do.

7/8 parlay paid $0.

 

Had I made it a 7/7 parlay and just deleted Kimura, it would've still been in the +1200 range, meaning 12-1 against getting 7 consecutive fights right. One mistake sinks it all.