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About NickCave

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  • Birthday 12/19/1987

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    Marcel Marceau
  1. You underestimate smart people. There's not as big a division between Quant/Qual as you think. Most people I know would suggest I'm a quant, but I'm also good with words and feelings. My best friend got his masters in Analytics. Neither of us is a ****ing faggot. We both watch sports like normal people. You're hostile to Quants. I get the impression you believe quantitative analysis is juvenile, or... limited? Like, sure, quants can know some things, but QUALS understand the mystery of the universe and universal truth and truth as more than just a concept and conceptual... whatever. S
  2. I think you vastly underestimate the allure of money. If the lines are inefficient, and the limits are high enough, the money will come. Those super-mega geniuses who are beating NBA totals, Mountain West football, and NCAAB spreads have never had any problem wagering large sums of money on boxing, and MMA isn't much different. As the sport grows in popularity and more data becomes available, the smart money will make the lines harder and harder to exploit. Count on that.
  3. I've lost money betting on cycling and Olympic nonsense, contests after which the winner was shown to have cheated. Every book pays once a result is posted or certified, and in every sport I've ever wagered, that happens within moments of the finish. The idea is that, on some level at least, steroid/blood doping/cheating rumors are public domain, and if everyone has equal access, it's fair game. If somebody is gaming the system, however, the books might go after big individual winners, in conjunction with the Federals. I swear, my heart ****ing broke for AmScray watching that fight. The fi
  4. I kind of forgot how huge this was for you, AmScray. Losing like that has to be extra-painful, because it has to feel so flukey. I ask this out of curiosity, and not some annoying kind of celebration, but do you still feel like you had the right side? If they fought again, would you still bed Silva? Would you bet him for the same amount at the same price? I only ask, because I've taken countless beats where I've lost and thought to myself, "God damn if there were a rematch tomorrow I would bet THREE TIMES AS MUCH," and those are, paradoxically, the painful ones, despite the fact that the proce
  5. I was at the UM/OSU game. Went to Ann Arbor that morning to meet a friend at a bar and watch the game, and we kept getting closer and closer to campus. Eventually ended up at a tailgate, and two drunk chicks offered us their tickets for close to face value because they had their parents' tickets on the 50 or something. Whatever. Who cares. Amazing game. I ended up going on an epic bender with some people I met at the game.
  6. I asked my local where he was on the fight, and he told me he was taking mostly Maynard action, at which point I suggested I was willing to bet Diaz at the right price. He was looking to lay it off anyway, and the easiest route was to sell it to me, especially because he was probably like 15 cents off book on the fight, anyway. When it comes to NFL and NBA sides, locals don't have much leeway. MLB (and NHL I guess) lines are a little more malleable. But when you get even further onto the periphery, like with MMA and boxing, it's really easy to set lines your clients would be insane to bet
  7. I hope you I can only hope you love "Decoy" as much as I do. I truly believe it is among the greatest episodes of television ever filmed. I'll skip everything before the title sequence, because all of that is too easy, except to say, I absolutely love the way Boyd enunciates. ----- The entire Decoy caravan is brilliant This entire conversation between Gutterson and Rhodes is perfect television. It's one of the many reasons why I love this episode so, so much: That's one of the best scenes ever, but as much as I love it, the episode would still be great
  8. I'm not sure if you're kidding, but there's almost zero chance professional athletes menstruate during heavy training/competition, given how easy it is to manipulate cycles. I had a few (9) beers after (during) work, and decided to drop a few dollars on some fights. Decided to straight fade Scram by taking Diaz +140 (I like dogs in general, and my bookie took mostly Maynard action, so he offered me a good price on Diaz). Took Modaferi (sp?) and Morgan around the market price, because LOL girl dogs. I feel like I'm going to drop a ****ing bomb on whomever the **** Anderson Silva
  9. That's why the steroids thing was so brilliant, and totally perfect for Nebraska. "No top flight super athletes want to come play in Lincoln? Fuck you, we'll feed our horses steroids and make them spend 4 hours a day during the offseason in the weight room and then WE'LL RUN IT DOWN YOUR THROATS!" I grew up a Michigan fan, so I was always accustomed to that kind of entitled, top-25-recruiting-class-every-year attitude. Going to MSU changed my perspective drastically. It's just so hard to win in major college sports unless you have some kind of sustainable, significant edge. MSU had that wa
  10. I mean, I know how to actually solve the problem, I was just thinking about how to do it quickly, and mostly in one's head. But #13 for example, I got right to 45%(4800) - 1/3 (4800) in my head, and then the math was not SUPER easy. The way I did it in my head was something like "half of 4800 is 2400, less ten percent of 2400 is 240 is 2160...." and then went from there, but I didn't if there was a simpler way to do it mentally. I certainly can't do .45(4800) any quicker in my head.
  11. I read Zach Lowe. Barnwell is just... he's so bad. He's the worst. How can anyone not thing that he's the worst? I can take or leave pretty much everything else. The pop culture as high art stuff is annoying.
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