Quiz Question #21

[tipster1964 0]

Congratulations...you have just said the stupidest thing I've ever heard in my life.I thank the Internet every day.

Ok maybe I am not understanding the question...I have visibly seen his cards before making the call? OK then, I would call 100% of the time, if this is the case.

[tipster1964 0]

This makes no sense whatsoever.You ARE a 60% favourite...it's irrelevent to whether you push or call.If you push as a 60% favourite you WANT him to call, because he's getting a bad price, and it would therefore be a mistake for him to call...would you push postflop, say on the turn, where you're a 60% favourite, but now the pot has priced him into making it correct for him to call?This is completely different than a situation where you don't know what he has, but only suspect a range of hands...that's when you have a decision to make.When you know you're 60% (far from a coin flip)...the decision is easy...if you're godly enough to pass up a 60% advantage, good for you.OK - you win...THIS is the studidest thing I've ever heard....I'm impressed you outdid yourself.Go back and read the original post....the guy who went all in doesn't have aces...HE HAS QhJh!!!!!!!YOU KNOW WHAT HE HAS!!!!!!!You know you are a 60/40 favourite over his EXACT hand!!!!!What don't you understand?????

I agree I mis-read the question... are you yelling at me....relax dude, chill out, it was a simple mistake. You can tell by my answer I am answering a question that I mis-read. The sarcism in these forums is incredible.

[Canada 0]

The sarcism in these forums is incredible.

It's sarcasm!!11 OMG you must be sooooo stupid!!!Eleventy-Onesw B)

[Ramram84 0]

I wouldn't call this ever on the first hand with a deep stack regardless of who is at the table. If you call this, you may get the exta 10,000, but you give away to the rest of the table that you're afraid to play. I would personally turn over my hand as I fold to make a statement, and watch the reaction of the SB, because his expression after seeing you fold the A-K will more than likely spark a reaction that will alert you as to how strong his hand was.Clear fold.P.S. Alot of people are making the assumption that the 6 unkowns are weaker players. Just because you've never seen them before doesnt make them a bad player.

[shpaget 0]

I wouldn't call this ever on the first hand with a deep stack regardless of who is at the table. If you call this, you may get the exta 10,000, but you give away to the rest of the table that you're afraid to play. I would personally turn over my hand as I fold to make a statement, and watch the reaction of the SB, because his expression after seeing you fold the A-K will more than likely spark a reaction that will alert you as to how strong his hand was.Clear fold.P.S. Alot of people are making the assumption that the 6 unkowns are weaker players. Just because you've never seen them before doesnt make them a bad player.

I really wish people would actually read the question before answering it. Read the question again, slowly, and then explain to us why you would need to see his reaction to determine the strength of his hand.As to your PS - the stronger your opposition, the more correct it is to call.

[DB10-2 0]

for me, it's simple: if i want to win, i need to bust 11,999 people, many but not all of whom will be complete donks like our friend with QJs. the ME is a neverending odyssey of bad plays and people pushing coinflips over and over and over. if you're a good player, to win the ME you have to get lucky a few times and not get unlucky many more times.this situation is a bit better than a coin flip. hopefully i won't get unlucky.again: i need to bust 11,999 people to win. i have a 3:2 edge to bust my first one right now. i'im taking it. i call.

[copernicus 0]

Hard to believe the voting is so close on this. Easy call.You are at a table of small ball pros who's bread and butter is seeing cheap flops. With a doubled stack you can bet aggressively with your strong hands, eliminate them from the hand, or withstand some losses as a favorite.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

It would be great if the original poster who gave the question would post what he would do. Unless someone could do some real convincing, I'm sticking with my previous answer.So, op, what would you do?

[timwakefield 68]

With Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen at my table I'd be playing scared, but not if I had a doublestack. Easy call.On the other hand, it's possible that this guy's gonna keep showing me his cards, and I can find a better spot. I don't think that's supposed to be considered though...

[shpaget 0]

It would be great if the original poster who gave the question would post what he would do. Unless someone could do some real convincing, I'm sticking with my previous answer.So, op, what would you do?

I am sure Daniel Negreanu, the original poster, will provide his answer shortly, as he always does with these quizzes.Until then, all we have to go by is an article he wrote a couple years ago.Emphasis added."I do find it a little strange when people say that you shouldn't play a marginally profitable situation early in a tournament, but it's OK to do so late in a tournament. I think they are missing out on several key points, but I'd like to touch on just one: By doubling up early in an event, it enables you to accumulate even more chips, as a big stack demands respect and is often given free rein to pick up chips at will by aggressively attacking the blinds. I answered a hypothetical question a while back that went something like this: Let's say you are in the WSOP main event, and on the very first hand dealt, you have A-K offsuit in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind, who exposes his cards to you and goes all in with Q-J suited. Would you call?You should - seriously. You would win the pot 60 percent of the time, meaning that six out of 10 times, you'd start the tournament with twice as many chips, while four times, you'd be out early and could enjoy the rest of the afternoon! That is too good an offer to pass up. You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation, but 60 percent is just too much equity for any mortal to give up.Unless you believe yourself to be some kind of a poker god and think you can routinely fold in positive expected value situations because you can "outplay" everybody else without taking any risks, you should be willing to take some risks regardless of the stage of the tournament."So, does that change your answer?Everyone has a line in the sand...I think 60% is too compelling and would call in most tournaments...I probably fold in a home game where I know I can outplay the field by a wider margin.But the vast majority of people do not achieve double their stack in 60% of the tournaments the enter...at any point....they bust out before doubling their starting total more than that....so, already, with a 60/40 edge, they're given an opportunity to achieve something they don't do normally in other tourneys by playing their game and "outlplaying" the opposition.And that's the question...you call here you will go to 20000 chips 60% of the time.If you entered 10 WSOP ME's, and folded this hand...could you play smallball and increase your stack to 20000 chips, before busting out, in 6 of them? To put it in perspective, I'd guess that more than half the field in this year's main event busted out before reaching 20000 chips....I'd bet that upwards of 10% of the field never got over their starting stack. It's harder than you think, and 60% is an awfully large edge to throw out the window.

[simo_8ball 0]

I'm just wondering if DN will change his mind given the poor quality of players at this year's WSOP.

I probably fold in a home game where I know I can outplay the field by a wider margin.

Perhaps he feels the ME is now as bad as a home game.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

I'd guess that more than half the field in this year's main event busted out before reaching 20000 chips....I'd bet that upwards of 10% of the field never got over their starting stack. It's harder than you think, and 60% is an awfully large edge to throw out the window.

I got to about $23,000 by the second level, and not by calling all ins as a 60% favorite.

[shpaget 0]

I'm just wondering if DN will change his mind given the poor quality of players at this year's WSOP. Perhaps he feels the ME is now as bad as a home game.

It's a legitimate point, and I'm curious to see if he's changed his mind.That being said...with the poor quality, you can rarely know what two cards someone has, and even on an attracive board, to you, you may rarely be better than 60% in a lot of situations...because buddy limped with Q3s, UTG, and then called your late position raise. Depends if you're bad opponents are bad because they're weak, or bad because of the cards they play, or bad because they don't understand how to bet.

[HP_Joe 0]

The 10,000 you would gain in this situation is nearly meaningless in the overall scope of the tournament. Yes, you want to accumulate chips, but to do so while giving yourself nearly a 40% chance to get knocked out of the tournament on the very first hand is too big a risk. Plus, if he/she is pushing on the first hand with QJ you will probably be able to see some flops with this person at a later time and take all their chips when you have them drawing much thinner.To me, this early in the tournament, and after seeing their QJ hand, I would need QQ, KK or AA to call. I wouldn't even call with JJ, cuz I'm not that much bigger a favorite than the AK situation.Now, if this was the second hand of the tourney, and I had already doubled up to $20,000, I would make an instant call, because once again, the extra $10,000 I already have doesn't really mean much to me except to help accumulate more chips, and I'll gladly risk it to pad my stack to $30,000 as a 60% favorite.As far as Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen being at the table, it doesn't really affect my decision. Besides, the added bonus have having more time to observe their play would probably be worth the $10,000 buy in alone rather risking it being knocked out as a medium favorite on the first hand.

[simo_8ball 0]

Going from 10k to 20k is worthless, but going from 20k to 30k isn't?EDIT:HP_JoeGroup: MembersPosts: 4Joined: January 12th, 20054 posts since Jan 2005. I'm impressed. I'm even more impressed that they have all been spread over a long period. No, really.

[HP_Joe 0]

Going from 10k to 20k is worthless, but going from 20k to 30k isn't?EDIT:HP_JoeGroup: MembersPosts: 4Joined: January 12th, 20054 posts since Jan 2005. I'm impressed. I'm even more impressed that they have all been spread over a long period. No, really.

Trying to get from 10K to 20K adds the strong possibility I go broke, while trying to go from 20K to 30K just means I may go back down to 10K, like the rest of the table, save one. Once I have those extra chips, you can almost consider it a cash game situation, because I can't go broke, and I wouldn't be at any disadvantage to the rest of the table, I'll take the gamble with the odds in my favor to try to get another 10K.Oh, and as far as the number of posts...I was not as good a player back then so my opinions probably wouldn't have helped anybody, hopefully this one will.

[simo_8ball 0]

Oh, and as far as the number of posts...I was not as good a player back then so my opinions probably wouldn't have helped anybody, hopefully this one will.

Trust me, there are plenty of HORRENDOUS players around here. That shouldn't have stopped you posting.You make a good point, but do you really think you have a >60% chance of grinding your way to $20k in the first place?

[scatory2 0]

It's the very first hand of the WSOP main event and there are 12,000 players. At your table are Phil Ivey, Gus Hansen, and six other players you've never seen before. Everyone folds to the small blind. When he peeks at his cards, you see that he has the Q J . For some bizarre reason, he decides to go all in??? You are in the big blind and have the A K . The question is simple: call or fold?

Now here's the key point this question. Your a 3-2 favorite to win the hand. Your a scary table with two insanely good players who are loose and insanely good. I don't care how good you think you are, Ivey will out play you after the flop, end of story. In order for you to have a fighing chance, you have to have GUs and Phil out chipped. They'll be less inclined to stal from you being that you can set them all in.

[Big Blue 0]

You're roughly 30%, whether you are against 9 random hands, or an assortment of some pairs and suited connectors and 1 or 2 random hands....call it anywhere between 27 and 31% against 9 likely hands. If everyone has a different pair, you're 25%.The only time you're huge is if there are several people with pairs that cancel each other (eg. kk, kk, qq, qq, jj, jj).It's tough..you're an underdog to the table, but you will get 100k chips if you win...so...you win the hand, and then you will soon be at a table where your stack is so dominant (10x almost everyone else's) you can really bully the hell out of everyone for the rest of the day.Also keep in mind that if you fold you will be at this table with a guy with 90k in chips (it's more likely that 8 people will be moved from 8 other tables immediately, because it will be unlikely that there will be spots available at other tables for you to move to).

Thanks.

[shpaget 0]

The 10,000 you would gain in this situation is nearly meaningless in the overall scope of the tournament. Yes, you want to accumulate chips, but to do so while giving yourself nearly a 40% chance to get knocked out of the tournament on the very first hand is too big a risk. Plus, if he/she is pushing on the first hand with QJ you will probably be able to see some flops with this person at a later time and take all their chips when you have them drawing much thinner.To me, this early in the tournament, and after seeing their QJ hand, I would need QQ, KK or AA to call. I wouldn't even call with JJ, cuz I'm not that much bigger a favorite than the AK situation.Now, if this was the second hand of the tourney, and I had already doubled up to $20,000, I would make an instant call, because once again, the extra $10,000 I already have doesn't really mean much to me except to help accumulate more chips, and I'll gladly risk it to pad my stack to $30,000 as a 60% favorite.As far as Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen being at the table, it doesn't really affect my decision. Besides, the added bonus have having more time to observe their play would probably be worth the $10,000 buy in alone rather risking it being knocked out as a medium favorite on the first hand.

Do you believe that 60% of the time you play this tournament you will get to 20000 in chips before you bust out?Ivey and Hansen being at your table should play a factor in your decision, because they will be a large factor in my first question.The weaker your opposition, the more correct it is to fold...the stronger your opposition, the more correct it is to call.This is a clear, unquestionable call, against a set of players where you factor to be average of the group.

[Acid_Knight 2]

The 10,000 you would gain in this situation is nearly meaningless in the overall scope of the tournament. Yes, you want to accumulate chips, but to do so while giving yourself nearly a 40% chance to get knocked out of the tournament on the very first hand is too big a risk. Plus, if he/she is pushing on the first hand with QJ you will probably be able to see some flops with this person at a later time and take all their chips when you have them drawing much thinner.To me, this early in the tournament, and after seeing their QJ hand, I would need QQ, KK or AA to call. I wouldn't even call with JJ, cuz I'm not that much bigger a favorite than the AK situation.Now, if this was the second hand of the tourney, and I had already doubled up to $20,000, I would make an instant call, because once again, the extra $10,000 I already have doesn't really mean much to me except to help accumulate more chips, and I'll gladly risk it to pad my stack to $30,000 as a 60% favorite.As far as Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen being at the table, it doesn't really affect my decision. Besides, the added bonus have having more time to observe their play would probably be worth the $10,000 buy in alone rather risking it being knocked out as a medium favorite on the first hand.

I HATE this assumption. While yes, you will be able to play pots with this person, in position, what good does that do you? If they're pushing QJh on the first hand of the ME to win 50 chips, they're most likely a maniac. How are you going to react later in the tourney with AA against them when they push into you and the board is 379 rainbow? You won't know their cards. Yeah, they're a maniac but aren't they allowed to outflop you? You could be an 80% favorite or an 80% dog.I guess my point is that you don't have to guess. You can "read" their hand by literally reading the "Q" and "J" on the 2 cards that they're showing you. All of the talk about playing smaller pots with them later might not even matter because A: Someone else will get their chips because they won't fold a 60% edgeB: They might not play small pots, only making huge bets and raisesC: Gus and Phil will know what a weak-tight player you are and run your a$$ over before you ever have a chance to take QJ Boy's chips.

[shrimp4789 0]

I dont know it would be a tough decision for me, however being that early in the tournament I wouldnt want to blow it completely on that hand. AK is good, but its not unbeatable. Id fold.

[I am not your BIATCH 0]

I'd call, cuz that's just the donk that I am.

[caribstv 0]

It's the very first hand of the WSOP main event and there are 12,000 players. At your table are Phil Ivey, Gus Hansen, and six other players you've never seen before. Everyone folds to the small blind. When he peeks at his cards, you see that he has the Q J . For some bizarre reason, he decides to go all in??? You are in the big blind and have the A K . The question is simple: call or fold?

Easy fold... Ramdom cards given the flop usually favors QJ suited over AK in my opinion.I wouldn't put all my chips on the line for a general coin flip situation

[Acid_Knight 2]

Easy fold... Ramdom cards given the flop usually favors QJ suited over AK in my opinion.I wouldn't put all my chips on the line for a general coin flip situation

This has to be one of the stupidest things that anyone has ever said. It's an all in, it doesn't matter what your opinion is. The board will favor AK over QJ EXACTLY 60% of the time.Coinflips are roughly 50/50. This is a 3-2 advantage. Hence, this is NOT a coinflip. Based on your comments I doubt you play poker well enough to pass up a coinflip, let alone a 3-2 advantage.