Quiz Question #21

[shpaget 0]

Please enlighten me. What's the difference (besides several percentage points)?Here we are about two hours later. If you're going to imply that there's a difference, but you fail to provide one, maybe you should keep your job cleaning the Slurpee machine.Early in a tournament, the situations are similar in their risks and results.

Patience patience...I have a life outside the Internet.Let's start off with the fact that in our situation we KNOW we are a 60/40 favourite.In PH's situation, not only does he not know that he's a 60/40 favourite, he is reasonable certain that he's a 60/40 dog.In other words...if we were to reverse the hands in our example, giving you the QhJh, and you see your opponent's AK, where you KNOW you are a 60/40 dog, you would be correct to fold.PH "knew", or was reasonable certain, that he was a 60/40 dog, and was certainly not, even in the best-case scenario, anywhere close to a 60/40 favourite, so he folded. He probably couldn't even see himself as a 52/48 favourite.If PH looked over and saw his opponent had AsQs (making PH 58% to win) he'd have called in his famous all-in call manner...but he didn't know that (and was probably certain his opponent wasn't doing this with tptk)...against a reasonable range of hands he knew he was a 60/40 dog, so he correctly folded (where he'd never fold this in a cash game as the pot odds warrant a call here).THAT is a marginal hand....where you don't know where you stand...where you could be a slight favourite or a slight dog or a decent favourite or a huge dog, or any other possibility....and in his situation, all he had was a big draw....and in our example, all the QhJh is is a big draw....our AK is a made hand (in relation to our opponent's)...in PH's situation, he did NOT have a made hand.Here you KNOW where you stand...you KNOW you're ahead, and you KNOW you'll win 60% of the time - and that is more than marginalIf you went to the roullette table and bet red all night and red came up 60% of the time, you'd have a very profitable night...not a marginal night...in fact, it is so far above 50/50 that the casino would wonder if things had been rigged, or if the wheel was off balance....the table would be taken out of commission and inspected, and you might even be interrogated along with the guy working the table....why? Because the difference between 60/40 and 50/50 is HUGE.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

If PH looked over and saw his opponent had AsQs (making PH 58% to win) he'd have called in his famous all-in call manner...but he didn't know that (and was probably certain his opponent wasn't doing this with tptk)...against a reasonable range of hands he knew he was a 60/40 dog, so he correctly folded (where he'd never fold this in a cash game as the pot odds warrant a call here).

I disagree. I believe that, early in a tournament with this example that you have given, Phil would fold, given that Phil would expect to have even bigger advantages later.

Because the difference between 60/40 and 50/50 is HUGE.

I disagree.Thanks for taking the time to submit all of the details in your last post.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I disagree.Thanks for taking the time to submit all of the details in your last post.

Nice work. Nothing like someone else trying to *prove* that your opinion is wrong...

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

Nice work. Nothing like someone else trying to *prove* that your opinion is wrong...

I asked for more info and he delivered more info.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I asked for more info and he delivered more info.

Right, but when it comes down to it, what really defines a marginal situation is a matter of opinion. You can say that 60/40 is marginal and they say it isn't and you both get to be right. The beauty of fact vs opinion.

[JaxxVain 0]

my apologies for not reading pgs 7 and 8 of the postsI would call.But has anyone mentioned or thought that you now might be a target of Gus and Ivey?I know I am not a world class player, but I also know that I want to be in as many hands as I can with a player who puts all their chips in with an unmade (that a word?) hand. So if I am phil or gus and I see you lay up your AK on the first hand of any tourney I am going to try to play lots of pots with you. I would be salivating.In other words, you could be a target because of your big stack and your play. This might not be the desired results of doubling up that you expected.

[pragtyro 0]

my apologies for not reading pgs 7 and 8 of the postsI would call.But has anyone mentioned or thought that you now might be a target of Gus and Ivey?I know I am not a world class player, but I also know that I want to be in as many hands as I can with a player who puts all their chips in with an unmade (that a word?) hand. So if I am phil or gus and I see you lay up your AK on the first hand of any tourney I am going to try to play lots of pots with you. I would be salivating.In other words, you could be a target because of your big stack and your play. This might not be the desired results of doubling up that you expected.

Just say out loud "I saw your cards, I call"

[TheIceman71 0]

We all know that poker is a game of imperfect information, and here you have a situation where you have perfect information. You know for a fact what you have, what your opponent has, and what your hand's probability of winning is (AK off-suit vs. suited connector below AK = .60). We also know that ideally we like to have all our money in with the best hand. Here, we know we have the best hand. Also, we have overcards in case he spikes a Q or J on the flop, whereas if we saw his QJ and we were holding a pair of threes (where we have the best hand but we'd only be 50% to win), once that Q or J hit, we'd be drawing to two outs (provided nobody folded a junk hand with a 3 pre-flop).I call.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

I call.

And you lose 2x out of every 5!

[James D 0]

I know this is a hypothetical question... but it's just too far fetched. It would just NEVER happen. The blinds at the first level of the ME are 25/50... Someone happens to go all in first hand from the small blind, and you happen to see their cards??I would fold within 2 seconds... (one second if I had bought in for the whole $10,000 myself, and not qualified through a satallite) If he really is doing that, then he is obviously drunk or mentally unstable. With him on your right, you would be able to double up within the hour, in a situation where he is almost drawing dead anyway, not just a 3/2 advantage.

[simo_8ball 0]

Then again, he may double up someone else in the next 3 hands. You know for a fact that you have a 3:2 edge right now. Take it.

[James D 0]

I will be stunned, truly STUNNED, if Daniel's answer to this is call. I know that if this really happened, Daniel would fold. Any professional would fold, because they know they can get this guys chips later in a much better spot.If this was later on, in the money, or when he has his opponent covered, then he would probably call this, but not for all his chips first hand, not in a million years.And I don't know what the fact that Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen are on the table has got to do with any of this? I assume he is implying that with them on the table, this is your best chance of getting a lot of chips.But that is not really an issue, the issue is whether you want to risk everything, in a $10,000 event on a 60/40 shot, with a crazy, drunk lunatic on your right!!! No way.I have another question, even more hypothetically crazy..... It's the first hand of the Main Event, and EVERYONE goes all in (I think it's 9 people per table, so that's 8 all-ins) before you, and you are in the BB... You look down and see AA... Do u call??

[simo_8ball 0]

It's the first hand of the Main Event, and EVERYONE goes all in (I think it's 9 people per table, so that's 8 all-ins) before you, and you are in the BB... You look down and see AA... Do u call??

Ok, this one pops up every couple of weeks. I call in an instant. What is your answer?

[James D 0]

Ok, this one pops up every couple of weeks. I call in an instant. What is your answer?

I fold in an instant.... the odds of ONE pair holding up against 8 other hands are extremely slim. Easy fold.

[simo_8ball 0]

I fold in an instant.... the odds of ONE pair holding up against 8 other hands are extremely slim. Easy fold.

Lol. POTD.Read THIS. Then you might understand.

[James D 0]

Lol. POTD.Read THIS. Then you might understand.

I might understand? lol... okUm..... the link you sent has a situation where one person has raised 4x the BB, and another person has pushed all in..... that is NOTHING like what I asked. That is an easy situation where you can re-raise all in yourself. That is easy.My situation was if ALL 8 players on the very first hand had gone all in, in front of you.Think about it, and I mean try to actually think about it.. You have paid your $10,000 to the cashier the week before... you are now sitting at the first table of the Main Event of the WSOP... lo and behold, you appear to have drawn the most ridiculous table in poker history. EVERYONE goes all in!If you call, your chances of AA holding up will be no greater than 16%.. possibly a little less. (Even though, granted, it will be the best hand pre-flop).Do you risk your whole tournament on a 16% shot? My answer would be no. These people are all clearly lunatics and you will be able to build your stack slower, through them, rather than risk it all in a 9-handed crap shoot.If you post more links, at least make sure they are even close to what I asked... then you might understand, ok?

[pragtyro 0]

Do you risk your whole tournament on a 16% shot?

After wiping the drool from my face, yes

[James D 0]

Edit - Actually AA will NOT always be the best hand 9 handed... It is actually quite hard for it to be, if you play around with a NL Holdem odds calculator.In this case, attached, the 23 suited has a better chance of winning. AA is only 14.7%. You can see for yourself that, 9 handed, AA will not be the best hand. And it rarely will be, with 9 random hands.As I said, easy fold. Especially as you have already gained the information that they are complete nutters and you will take their chips, in a better spot, later in the game.

After wiping the drool from my face, yes

75-80% of people who play poker lose money - FACT.I can tell from those 8 words that you are one of them.

[pragtyro 0]

75-80% of people who play poker lose money - FACT.

If you believe that it's only 80%....

[James D 0]

If you believe that it's only 80%....

Um.......... it is.

[TheIceman71 0]

A lot of the posts say that a fold is worthwhile here so that we could stick around and learn from Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen. With all due respect to these two players, I believe I have entered this tournament to try and beat them and every other player in the event. I'm not saying I am better than them or many of the other players in the tournament, nor am I saying that I will beat them, but I am there to play against them and not with them. If I wanted to specifically learn from them, perhaps I could just pay them ten thou for a private lesson, or stake them for their entry fee and sit over their shoulder. I would hope that if I paid ten grand to enter a poker tournament it is because I am confident enough that I do not need to consider such an expensive buy-in as - first and foremost - a learning experience. If you call in this situation it should be because you act based on the valuable information you have been privvy to combined with the consideration of a statistical probability advantage; if you fold in this situation it should be because you do not see 60% as enough of a statistical probability advantage and/or you have an uncanny sense that one of the five cards that follow are going to burn you. I don't believe the decision (call or fold) should be based on whether or not you want to sit at a table with Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen.

[simo_8ball 0]

I might understand? lol... okUm..... the link you sent has a situation where one person has raised 4x the BB, and another person has pushed all in..... that is NOTHING like what I asked. That is an easy situation where you can re-raise all in yourself. That is easy.My situation was if ALL 8 players on the very first hand had gone all in, in front of you.

If you bothered to read past the first couple of posts you would realise the thread is mostly about the exact question you posed.

Think about it, and I mean try to actually think about it.. You have paid your $10,000 to the cashier the week before... you are now sitting at the first table of the Main Event of the WSOP... lo and behold, you appear to have drawn the most ridiculous table in poker history. EVERYONE goes all in!If you call, your chances of AA holding up will be no greater than 16%.. possibly a little less. (Even though, granted, it will be the best hand pre-flop).

How do you get that figure? Against 9 random hands AA is 31%. Read the thread I gave you the link to.

Do you risk your whole tournament on a 16% shot? My answer would be no. These people are all clearly lunatics and you will be able to build your stack slower, through them, rather than risk it all in a 9-handed crap shoot.

Quote from Paul Phillips in the thread I posted:"You were just seated at a table with apparently the nine worst players in the world, and eight of them are going broke THIS HAND, and you had the BEST POSSIBLE HAND, and you folded it. Good luck getting a better opportunity.You are also now co-tabled with an obviously completely fearless maniac who has 9x your stack. Sounds like a good situation to find an easy double-up... he'll probably be moving all in every hand from now on and you'll get to keep folding 37o dreaming fondly of that one hand where you had AA and FOLDED."

If you post more links, at least make sure they are even close to what I asked... then you might understand, ok?

Please read the link I gave you. It isn't 'close' to what you asked, it is EXACTLY what you asked.

[shpaget 0]

Edit - Actually AA will NOT always be the best hand 9 handed... It is actually quite hard for it to be, if you play around with a NL Holdem odds calculator.In this case, attached, the 23 suited has a better chance of winning. AA is only 14.7%. You can see for yourself that, 9 handed, AA will not be the best hand. And it rarely will be, with 9 random hands.As I said, easy fold. Especially as you have already gained the information that they are complete nutters and you will take their chips, in a better spot, later in the game.75-80% of people who play poker lose money - FACT.I can tell from those 8 words that you are one of them.

So, are you suggesting that a "good" player, or a "professional" player would fold in this situation?Pros like TJ Cloutier, Paul Phillips and Mike Matros (off the top of my head) are all on record that they would call here.You have a 30% chance, against 9 random hands, to increase your stack tenfold...Do you honestly think, in your wildest dreams, in your best rush, that if you entered 100 of these tournaments that you would increase your stack to 100000 chips in 30 of them?!?!?!?!?If you honestly believe "yes" than you are the most delusional person I've ever met.Not only that, if you do fold, that means that you are going to be at a table with a person who has 90000 chips to your 10k...or, at best, you'll have two people with 45k in chips....not an ideal situation either.People who hate money fold here.

If you believe that it's only 80%....

Actually, it's more like 95% (some studies suggest it's 99% of online players)...and I KNOW that you're one of them.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I will be stunned, truly STUNNED, if Daniel's answer to this is call.

http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15183Read the last 4 paragraphs and prepare to be STUNNED. OOOOOOOHH.....

Pros like TJ Cloutier, Paul Phillips and Mike Matros (off the top of my head) are all on record that they would call here.

If you're going to refer to professional players when trying to prove other people wrong, at least use the real names of the players. His name is MATT Matros. You really should stop calling him Mike.

[shpaget 0]

I know this is a hypothetical question... but it's just too far fetched. It would just NEVER happen. The blinds at the first level of the ME are 25/50... Someone happens to go all in first hand from the small blind, and you happen to see their cards??I would fold within 2 seconds... (one second if I had bought in for the whole $10,000 myself, and not qualified through a satallite) If he really is doing that, then he is obviously drunk or mentally unstable. With him on your right, you would be able to double up within the hour, in a situation where he is almost drawing dead anyway, not just a 3/2 advantage.

You are making a LOT of assumptions.The fact that it's too farfetched offers a simple scenario as to when this could happen.How about this - he "accidentally" shows you his cards on purpose. Now, is he a maniac?...or is he taking a calculated risk knowing that only 1-2% of the time you're gonna have a hand (AA/KK/QQ) that will call here, but he has just established an image (and a trap) for you to contemplate on future hands when he goes all-in with the nuts and you won't see his cards that time...seeing that, according to this poll, 40% of you are too cowardly to call when you have a 60/40 edge because 40% of you think you are better than you really are, his play would be quite intelligent (as proven here that most of the geniuses here that have said they'd fold, they've all assumed this guy is maniacal, stupid, instable, drunk, etc).And, btw - if you read earlier in this post you will see a reference to a Daniel Negreanu article where he has already stated that this is a call. Not only that, there is another article on this thread by another pro, Mike Matros, who has defined a clear argument why this is a call even if you are "only" a 53% favourite.So, later in the tournament, are you going to call an all-in from him when you have tptk, because you "know" he's a maniac...or are you going to fold your hand because, since he is a maniac, maybe he flopped two pair? Or is this the time he turns over his set? Do you honestly think you're going to see his cards every hand from here on in?Do you honestly think that in the next hour or two, or three or four, that you are going to be heads up with him again where you KNOW you are a 60% favourite to win the hand? And, if that scenario does arise again, are you going to have 10000 chips...or 6000 chips? Is he going to have 10000 chips or 6000 chips? Or will someone else take all his chips before you get that chance?First, the question IS hypothetical and it's not meant to find out what you would do in that exact scenario, it's meant to find out how you think - it's meant for you to understand what kind of edge you need to have in any given situation...it's meant to find out what kind of players DN is likely to play in the ME...he now knows that 40% of the people out there are afraid of being sucked out, vs putting their money in when they're ahead...he now knows that 40% of us think they're better than they really are....the information DN has achieved from this poll will probably earn him a lot of money at the tables.

wrong, at least use the real names of the players. His name is MATT Matros. You really should stop calling him Mike.

Mental block - I will probably say "Mike" until the day I die.