Quiz Question #21

[SCS 0]

My brain hurts trying to figure out why anyone wouldn't call in this situation.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

My brain hurts trying to figure out why anyone wouldn't call in this situation.

I wouldn't call because I've already lost a bunch of hands in which I was a 60% favorite or better. I can wait and get better odds or outplay people out of their chips. I'd rather try to make it more of a skill game.

[simo_8ball 0]

I'd rather try to make it more of a skill game.

So if you had AA and he showed you KK you would fold? There would be as much skill involved there.This game is about money. The way you get money is by getting chips. This is an opportunity where you are expected to gain chips.You really think Daniel Negreanu, Paul Phillips, Chris Ferguson, Greg Raymer, TJ Cloutier, et al. are wrong when they say they would call here?

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

So if you had AA and he showed you KK you would fold? There would be as much skill involved there.

I didn't say that. I did say, "I can wait and get better odds." I'd call with AA, as an 80% favorite, without having to see the other player's cards.

This game is about money. The way you get money is by getting chips. This is an opportunity where you are expected to gain chips.

I wouldn't necessarily "expect" to win as a 60% favorite.

You really think Daniel Negreanu, Paul Phillips, Chris Ferguson, Greg Raymer, TJ Cloutier, et al. are wrong when they say they would call here?

I've never heard of those five players saying that. This question did not ask for a right or wrong answer; it asked for players' opinions as what they would do. There is no right or wrong answer. The next time I'm in the presence of one of those five players, I'll ask them.

[simo_8ball 0]

I didn't say that. I did say, "I can wait and get better odds." I'd call with AA, as an 80% favorite, without having to see the other player's cards.

You really expect to double up more than 60% of the time? If you do, then you must have an edge over the competition. If you do, how much more of an advantage would you expect to have with double the amount of chips of anyone else on the table? You would be able to play without the worry of busting. Surely it would be easier to grind from 20 to 30 than it is from 10 to 20. This factors into the calculations. In fact, even if you think you have a 65% edge you should call here because of this. I can go through why this is the case if that is necessary.

I wouldn't necessarily "expect" to win as a 60% favorite.

I think you are misinterpreting my statement. You are mathematically expected to gain chips here.

I've never heard of those five players saying that. This question did not ask for a right or wrong answer; it asked for players' opinions as what they would do. The next time I'm in the presence of one of those five players, I'll ask them.

They are all on record as saying they would take a 60% edge any time. DN wrote an article on this question (which has been posted in this thread) and said no mortal can turn down this edge. Fossilman and Paul Phillips have both said on 2+2 that they will take any edge at all. Chris Ferguson has stated that the best way to win a tournament is to play your best cash game, and to ignore the prospect of busting. I can't remember where I read the TJ Cloutier quote, but it is along the same lines.

[SCS 0]

I wouldn't call because I've already lost a bunch of hands in which I was a 60% favorite or better. I can wait and get better odds or outplay people out of their chips. I'd rather try to make it more of a skill game.

So you wouldn't take a chance to double up in chips when you are a 60% favorite at a table with Hansen and Ivey? How much of a favorite would you have to be before you decide to call?

[shpaget 0]

I wouldn't call because I've already lost a bunch of hands in which I was a 60% favorite or better. I can wait and get better odds or outplay people out of their chips. I'd rather try to make it more of a skill game.

I really don't care what you think about your own skill level, you're not that good.Period.You are not good enough to throw away a 60/40 edge.Period.End of story.No ifs ands or buts.Players who have made millions of dollars playing poker tournaments, with a collection of WSOP bracelets to boot, all say they call here in a heartbeat. I'm going to grant their opinion a little more weight and merit than yours. By saying you fold here you say you're better than them.If you can find some pros (ie. experienced and successful players) who say they would fold here, by all means bring them to the table....but you might want to consider, for a second, the reason why you will have such a hard time finding a pro who would say such a thing.The reason these guys have millions of dollars is because they put their money in when they have an edge.The fact is, there is a right and a wrong answer here if your goal is to make money.If your goal is to experience the ME, or to ogle the pros, or to engage in social gathering with fellow poker players, than folding may be correct.If you want to win, the answer is call.Period.Again.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

So you wouldn't take a chance to double up in chips when you are a 60% favorite at a table with Hansen and Ivey?

Hansen and Ivey being at my table is irrelevant. I'd actually feel more comfortable playing against them than one of the idiots at the table. I did better playing against pros in a cash game at the Taj last week than I did playing the idiots when they called my all in on the turn trying to make their flush on the river. The idiots were getting worse than 2:1 on their money and they were 4:1 underdogs to make their flushes, but a couple of them called and hit. The pros that I played against laid down big hands when I reraised them.

How much of a favorite would you have to be before you decide to call?

Off the top of my head, 70% is a good number; but I might change my mind.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

I really don't care what you think about your own skill level, you're not that good.Period.You are not good enough to throw away a 60/40 edge.Period.End of story.No ifs ands or buts.

You're confused.

Players who have made millions of dollars playing poker tournaments, with a collection of WSOP bracelets to boot, all say they call here in a heartbeat. I'm going to grant their opinion a little more weight and merit than yours.

When did "all of these players" say this? I talked to Negreanu & Ferguson at the WSOP. I talked to Raymer last week at the Taj. When I see the players mentioned here, I'll ask them what they think.

By saying you fold here you say you're better than them.

Nice try. I never said that.

The fact is, there is a right and a wrong answer here if your goal is to make money.

Wrong.

If your goal is to experience the ME, or to ogle the pros, or to engage in social gathering with fellow poker players, than folding may be correct.

I'm a player; not a spectator. I've played competitively against some big names in the past. I've outplayed some big names in the past.

Period.Again.

Period? I disagree. You, and some others, seem to be in a huff due to a difference of opinion. That's your loss. I never said that you were wrong about this, but you seem to want to say that I'm wrong. Whatever.I'm not even trying to convince anyone. I'm stating my opinion, what I would do, and why I would do it. You can think what you'd like. I'm bored with the discussion. Bye.

[Zach6668 513]

OMFG WTF WHY IS THIS EVEN STILL BEING DISCUSSED!!11 IN TWO THREADS NONETHELESS!!!1THIS IS AN EASY CALL.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

OMFG WTF WHY IS THIS EVEN STILL BEING DISCUSSED!!11 IN TWO THREADS NONETHELESS!!!1THIS IS AN EASY CALL.

Oooohhh...All caps, big red letters. It's like what Larry Flynt once said about Hustler magazine: If you don't want to read it, don't (or words to that effect). Take a deep breath and grow up. You'll be 22 before you know it. Not that it will help you, based on your outrage shown above.Oh, wait. I see the words under your avatar: "Life Tilt."That explains everything.

[shpaget 0]

When did "all of these players" say this? I talked to Negreanu & Ferguson at the WSOP. I talked to Raymer last week at the Taj. When I see the players mentioned here, I'll ask them what they think.

This is simply to answer your question - you can phone them up and ask them yourself if you want. My posts here are to assist people, as I expect others' posts to assist me...if you choose to fold, so be it.Daniel Negreau, Dec. 27, 2005:"Let's say you are in the WSOP main event, and on the very first hand dealt, you have A-K offsuit in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind, who exposes his cards to you and goes all in with Q-J suited. Would you call?You should - seriously. You would win the pot 60 percent of the time, meaning that six out of 10 times, you'd start the tournament with twice as many chips, while four times, you'd be out early and could enjoy the rest of the afternoon! That is too good an offer to pass up. You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation, but 60 percent is just too much equity for any mortal to give up."http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15183Matt "Mike" Matros, Nov. 15, 2005:"The small blind doesn't have a protector on his cards, either, and when he looks down at them one more time, he accidentally exposes his hand. He has the A K. You look down at your hand, and find two black queens. You've done your research. You know you have a 53.8 percent chance of winning if you call. But should you?This is a classic hypothetical question, and it creates raging arguments almost every time it's discussed. I believe there is a right answer to this question, one that doesn't depend on how skillful the player is, or what the player is hoping to get from the tournament. I hope by the end of this column that I will have convinced you.First, let's look at the common arguments I hear for folding:(1) If you're a good player, you want to use your skill to find a better spot to get your chips in.(2) You don't want to risk your entire tournament on one hand, especially in a coin-flip situation.(3) I don't play these big buy-in tournaments very often, so I want to get some experience playing them.In case you haven't guessed, I strongly believe all of these arguments are specious."http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15093The others...the quotes are out there, if you are actually interested in finding them....what I'm truly interested in is a pro who advocates your viewpoint...it may not change my mind, but I'm still interested to see one say it...the only one I can imagine saying it would be Hellmuth, and even he, I'd bet a lot of money, calls here.I have yet to see a pro advocate such a fold in such a situation.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

Daniel Negreau, Dec. 27, 2005:You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation, but 60 percent is just too much equity for any mortal to give up."http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15183Matt "Mike" Matros, Nov. 15, 2005:"The small blind doesn't have a protector on his cards, either, and when he looks down at them one more time, he accidentally exposes his hand. He has the A K. You look down at your hand, and find two black queens. You've done your research. You know you have a 53.8 percent chance of winning if you call. But should you? it turns out that we would take any edge greater than 48.63 percent. Yes, that's right. I just made the argument that very good players should actually take slightly negative EV situations early in a tournament"http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15093

So Daniel said, "You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation" and Matt said, "it turns out that we would take any edge greater than 48.63 percent."It appears that they disagree.

[Tigerlite 0]

This is simply to answer your question - you can phone them up and ask them yourself if you want. My posts here are to assist people, as I expect others' posts to assist me...if you choose to fold, so be it.Daniel Negreau, Dec. 27, 2005:"Let's say you are in the WSOP main event, and on the very first hand dealt, you have A-K offsuit in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind, who exposes his cards to you and goes all in with Q-J suited. Would you call?You should - seriously. You would win the pot 60 percent of the time, meaning that six out of 10 times, you'd start the tournament with twice as many chips, while four times, you'd be out early and could enjoy the rest of the afternoon! That is too good an offer to pass up. You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation, but 60 percent is just too much equity for any mortal to give up."http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15183Matt "Mike" Matros, Nov. 15, 2005:"The small blind doesn't have a protector on his cards, either, and when he looks down at them one more time, he accidentally exposes his hand. He has the A K. You look down at your hand, and find two black queens. You've done your research. You know you have a 53.8 percent chance of winning if you call. But should you?This is a classic hypothetical question, and it creates raging arguments almost every time it's discussed. I believe there is a right answer to this question, one that doesn't depend on how skillful the player is, or what the player is hoping to get from the tournament. I hope by the end of this column that I will have convinced you.First, let's look at the common arguments I hear for folding:(1) If you're a good player, you want to use your skill to find a better spot to get your chips in.(2) You don't want to risk your entire tournament on one hand, especially in a coin-flip situation.(3) I don't play these big buy-in tournaments very often, so I want to get some experience playing them.In case you haven't guessed, I strongly believe all of these arguments are specious."http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/author/162?page=3The others...the quotes are out there, if you are actually interested in finding them....what I'm truly interested in is a pro who advocates your viewpoint...it may not change my mind, but I'm still interested to see one say it...the only one I can imagine saying it would be Hellmuth, and even he, I'd bet a lot of money, calls here.I have yet to see a pro advocate such a fold in such a situation.

Wow, thanks for this great article!!!!

[simo_8ball 0]

So Daniel said, "You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation" and Matt said, "it turns out that we would take any edge greater than 48.63 percent."It appears that they disagree.

Yeah. Slightly. They are both in agreement that 60% is unfoldable though.Paul Phillips:"I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker."Raymer:"if you knowingly pass up a 60:40 opportunity, you're not a top player."

[Acid_Knight 2]

Yeah. Slightly. They are both in agreement that 60% is unfoldable though.Paul Phillips:"I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker."Raymer:"if you knowingly pass up a 60:40 opportunity, you're not a top player."

Great_Dane says:It's a matter of opinion and I choose to fold and wait til I think that I can have a larger advantage for my tournament life than 3-2.Everyone gets to be right. Hooray!You can't argue with someone that their OPINION is wrong!

[SCS 0]

Yeah. Slightly. They are both in agreement that 60% is unfoldable though.Paul Phillips:"I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker."Raymer:"if you knowingly pass up a 60:40 opportunity, you're not a top player."

Also, Daniel doesn't say that he would fold as a 53% favorite, just that someone could make a justifiable argument for doing so.

[shpaget 0]

Great_Dane says:It's a matter of opinion and I choose to fold and wait til I think that I can have a larger advantage for my tournament life than 3-2.Everyone gets to be right. Hooray!You can't argue with someone that their OPINION is wrong!

OK - my opinion is that 2+2=5.

[Acid_Knight 2]

OK - my opinion is that 2+2=5.

Yeah, good try, but see 2+2 = 4 is a FACT. Just like it's a fact that A K will beat Q J 60% of the time.Whether it is right to fold or call in that situation, regardless of what the professionals say, or what would give you the best chance to win the tournament, is a matter of opinion.This line of conversation doesn't need to go past this post.

[shpaget 0]

So Daniel said, "You could justify folding as a 53 percent or even 55 percent favorite in this situation" and Matt said, "it turns out that we would take any edge greater than 48.63 percent."It appears that they disagree.

Yup...as I disagree with calling at 49%.You will likely find great debate amongst the pros and top players around the 51-55% range, and probably a lot of pros on either side of the argument.You will not find such a debate at 60%.

Yeah, good try, but see 2+2 = 4 is a FACT. Just like it's a fact that A K will beat Q J 60% of the time.Whether it is right to fold or call in that situation, regardless of what the professionals say, or what would give you the best chance to win the tournament, is a matter of opinion.This line of conversation doesn't need to go past this post.

It's times like this that I pity the Internet and the entire social ineptitude it has created.Even when I put the winky emoticon people don't get the joke. Sad, really.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Also, Daniel doesn't say that he would fold as a 53% favorite, just that someone could make a justifiable argument for doing so.

See, the thing is that pepole can make a justifiable argument for folding.Someone can legitimately say "I paid $10,000 cash to enter this tournament and I want to do everything possible to ensure that I last until the first break." In that way, their playing style might be so selectively tight that they will only play AA, KK or QQ to a raise preflop. It might not be the best strategy, and their goal might not be to win the tournament, but if that is the way that they want to play, then it is perfectly reasonable to fold the hand here becuase it guarantees that they will last at least another hand.I think that it's hard to argue for a fold if you're playing to win because:1. You're properly bankrolled and the $10,000 buyin doesn't represent a large portion of your bankroll. Either that, or you qualified online.2. You play tournaments for a living and are comfortably financially.3. You know that winning this hand will give you a larger edge and a better chance to go deep into the field.

It's times like this that I pity the Internet and the entire social ineptitude it has created.Even when I put the winky emoticon people don't get the joke. Sad, really.

The only reason that I made that post was to see if you'd really defend yourself against my retarded assertion that you might actually think that 2+2=5 is a matter of opinion.I was laughing as I wrote it, and I beamed on the inside to think you took the time to respond!

[shpaget 0]

I was laughing as I wrote it, and I beamed on the inside to think you took the time to respond!

Is that a fact?

[Acid_Knight 2]

Is that a fact?

Excellent.

[kennyg1966 0]

MY DECISION DEPENDS ON HOW I GOT MY BUYIN....did i sell the car or win the seat. If i won it why not take a shot nothing to lozzzzzzzzze..If i paid the entry myself i might wait for a better spot! B)

[simo_8ball 0]

If i paid the entry myself i might wait for a better spot! B)

Yeah, because better opportunities do appear regularly. This IS the proverbial 'better opportunity' that people look for.