Quiz Question #21

[rogerwilco 0]

Anyone who says fold here, ask yourself if you would make this laydown in the tourneys you usually play ($20 sng, $5 rebuy, Pokerstars Million, whatever). And if you would do it there, why not make in the WSOP-main event? Because of the embarrasment on tv if you lose the hand or because of rational decision-making?

[greatwhite 0]

In my opinion the value of doubling up in this situation isn't worth the risk of being knocked out.

[simo_8ball 0]

In my opinion the value of doubling up in this situation isn't worth the risk of being knocked out.

Any kind of proof/rational explanation for this?This has the same principle as the old question of 'everyone moves allin, do you call with AA?'Would you fold in that situation?

[rog 0]

I know how to calculate equity and EV. I think he's confused because he has equity in the POT, but at this stage, his equity in the tournament is altered by such a small amount that it almost doesn't matter.He increases his chip stack by 20% (on average, by calling) which is not the same as increasing his equity by 20%.

In tournament equity calculations, the farther from the money you are, the more your chip stack represents your equity. Before the first hand is dealt, your equity is your buyin. 10k that is. If you double through this guy, you gain all of his equity. Your equity has actually gone up 100%. Instead of having a 1/8000 chance of winning the whole thing, ICM says you now have a 1/4000 chance of finishing first. You still have a very small proportion of the total tournament equity,but you still have increased equity significantly. Increasing your chip stack by 20% on average in the first hand raises your equity by a value very very close to 20%.

[LooseCannon 0]

I think you missed the point of my post.

I think that you missed the point of my post

[simo_8ball 0]

I think that you missed the point of my post

Touché

[Big Blue 0]

I'd like to say I'd call, that's what I voted anyway.Chances are IRL, I fold and try to enjoy playing the ME, with a couple of top pros at my table.Ditto the "take the donks chips later" comments. Home tourney - I fold. I know I'm better than 60% to get in the money. This past weekends 10 player tourney, I won without ever having to go all-in.RE: Table goes all-in on first hand and I have AA... fold 'em, I don't know the odds, but I ain't going out like that.Side-question... What is the % when the other 9 (to your AA)? Since a few guys will require hands, lets go with 3 pairs (KK, JJ, 99), 2 suited connectors (QJ, 109). Axs, Axo, 2 players who thought they were calling $50, 94o, 75o.Where is the original AA, all others all-in question and discussion? That might help more.

[shpaget 0]

I'd like to say I'd call, that's what I voted anyway.Chances are IRL, I fold and try to enjoy playing the ME, with a couple of top pros at my table.Ditto the "take the donks chips later" comments. Home tourney - I fold. I know I'm better than 60% to get in the money. This past weekends 10 player tourney, I won without ever having to go all-in.RE: Table goes all-in on first hand and I have AA... fold 'em, I don't know the odds, but I ain't going out like that.Side-question... What is the % when the other 9 (to your AA)? Since a few guys will require hands, lets go with 3 pairs (KK, JJ, 99), 2 suited connectors (QJ, 109). Axs, Axo, 2 players who thought they were calling $50, 94o, 75o.Where is the original AA, all others all-in question and discussion? That might help more.

You're roughly 30%, whether you are against 9 random hands, or an assortment of some pairs and suited connectors and 1 or 2 random hands....call it anywhere between 27 and 31% against 9 likely hands. If everyone has a different pair, you're 25%.The only time you're huge is if there are several people with pairs that cancel each other (eg. kk, kk, qq, qq, jj, jj).It's tough..you're an underdog to the table, but you will get 100k chips if you win...so...you win the hand, and then you will soon be at a table where your stack is so dominant (10x almost everyone else's) you can really bully the hell out of everyone for the rest of the day.Also keep in mind that if you fold you will be at this table with a guy with 90k in chips (it's more likely that 8 people will be moved from 8 other tables immediately, because it will be unlikely that there will be spots available at other tables for you to move to).

[simo_8ball 0]

It's tough

Psychologially, possibly. Strategically, no. It's the same dilemma people have with the main situation in question (AK vs QJ). They just can't handle the prospect of busting.Your analysis is spot on though.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

I fold. If someone's going to put a bad beat on me, I'd like to be a better favorite.I plan on getting better odds down the road.I might call in this situation at the final table.

Phil H. said to win the WSOP now you must win about 9 coin flips during the tourney (paraphrased). This isnt even a flip, you are way ahead.I take advantage of the edge and call.

In Super System 2, Doyle said the following:

Be disciplined and be ready to lay down marginal hands. I once saw Phil Hellmuth, who has had great success in no-limit hold’em tournaments, lay down a Kh Jh to a Qh 10h 2c flop. He had raised the pot, bet at it on the flop, and got raised all his chips. It was early in the tournament and Phil passed, even though he had a draw at an open-ended straight flush. This is something that would never happen in a cash game. I’m not sure I would have passed, but it was probably correct to do so, given that Phil expected to have even bigger advantages later. Needless to say, my opinion of Phil’s no-limit tournament play went up several points after that hand.

I agree with Doyle. I'm done. Bye.

[LooseCannon 0]

For those who are advocating folding when you are a 60.4% favorite, what advantage are you waiting for? (numbers via twodimes)T T vs JTs when you are a 61.3% favorite?K K vs AKs when you are a 65.9% favorite?or vs AQs when you are a 67.9% favorite?or vs AQo when you are a 72.2% favorite?A A vs 87s when you are a 77.0% favorite?or vs TT when you are a 80.1% favorite?or vs 27o when you are a 87.4% favorite?or vs AKs when you are a 87.9% favorite?Where do you draw the line?(grr, stupid two many emoticons error)

[Canada 0]

I fold. If someone's going to put a bad beat on me, I'd like to be a better favorite.I plan on getting better odds down the road.I might call in this situation at the final table.In Super System 2, Doyle said the following:

Be disciplined and be ready to lay down marginal hands. I once saw Phil Hellmuth, who has had great success in no-limit hold’em tournaments, lay down a Kh Jh to a Qh 10h 2c flop. He had raised the pot, bet at it on the flop, and got raised all his chips. It was early in the tournament and Phil passed, even though he had a draw at an open-ended straight flush. This is something that would never happen in a cash game. I’m not sure I would have passed, but it was probably correct to do so, given that Phil expected to have even bigger advantages later. Needless to say, my opinion of Phil’s no-limit tournament play went up several points after that hand.

I agree with Doyle. I'm done. Bye.

Ummm... Doyle's point here is completely irrelevant. In the hand in question if Hellmuth's opponent has top pair he is a a 60/40 fav, same as the hand in the OP, however increase his opponents hand to 2 pair or better ( highly likely given the betting and Hellmuth's reading ability) and it goes to a 50/50 right through to PH being a 40/60 dog.Not even close to the OP situation where its a guarenteed 60/40.It's all well and good remembering principles but you need to know when they are applicable

[semaj550 0]

For those who are advocating folding when you are a 60.4% favorite, what advantage are you waiting for? (numbers via twodimes)T T vs JTs when you are a 61.3% favorite?K K vs AKs when you are a 65.9% favorite?or vs AQs when you are a 67.9% favorite?or vs AQo when you are a 72.2% favorite?A A vs 87s when you are a 77.0% favorite?or vs TT when you are a 80.1% favorite?or vs 27o when you are a 87.4% favorite?or vs AKs when you are a 87.9% favorite?Where do you draw the line?(grr, stupid two many emoticons error)

Those are all preflop percentages. Realistically speaking, you're not going to get it all in as better than a 2:1 favorite preflop most of the time. That's why they allow for three additional rounds of betting AFTER the flop.Like here, for instance:55 vs ATo with a flop of AT5. You're an 83% favorite.Ugh...there is more to poker than pushing all-in preflop.I'm not saying the call in the question is necessarily a bad one but there are better spots to get your money in. Would you call here with K T ?

[simo_8ball 0]

Would you call here with K T ?

Yes. Next question?

[shpaget 0]

Those are all preflop percentages. Realistically speaking, you're not going to get it all in as better than a 2:1 favorite preflop most of the time. That's why they allow for three additional rounds of betting AFTER the flop.Like here, for instance:55 vs ATo with a flop of AT5. You're an 83% favorite.Ugh...there is more to poker than pushing all-in preflop.I'm not saying the call in the question is necessarily a bad one but there are better spots to get your money in. Would you call here with K T ?

The fact that your are pushing all-in preflop is completely and totally irrelevent...there is no other way to put it...it doesn't matter...don't even bring it up.The point to this hand is not that it's preflop, it is you KNOW your opponents' cards...so you KNOW you are a 60/40 favourite....and if you are a 60/40 favourite, you are correct to call, whether it is the preflop, on the flop or on the turn....where you call does not matter...all that matters is that you KNOW you have the best hand and you KNOW your odds of winning it.Yes...I'd call with KTs as well.I'd need to be getting down to about 52%...closer to true coin flip territory...before I fold here.Yes, there are better spots to get your money in...the problem is, they don't happen nearly as often as you think, and, more importantly, most of the time you don't know when they're happening....is your flopped set 85%, 60%, or 5%?Is your top pair top kicker 55% or 95% or 12%?You can go for 100 hours of tournament/ring game play without ever seeing a hand where you're the stone cold nuts...unless you're counting on your buddy to show you his cards every hand you will never be as sure of your chances as you are right now.

[semaj550 0]

The fact that your are pushing all-in preflop is completely and totally irrelevent...there is no other way to put it...it doesn't matter...don't even bring it up.The point to this hand is not that it's preflop, it is you KNOW your opponents' cards...so you KNOW you are a 60/40 favourite....and if you are a 60/40 favourite, you are correct to call, whether it is the preflop, on the flop or on the turn....where you call does not matter...all that matters is that you KNOW you have the best hand and you KNOW your odds of winning it.Yes...I'd call with KTs as well.I'd need to be getting down to about 52%...closer to true coin flip territory...before I fold here.Yes, there are better spots to get your money in...the problem is, they don't happen nearly as often as you think, and, more importantly, most of the time you don't know when they're happening....is your flopped set 85%, 60%, or 5%?Is your top pair top kicker 55% or 95% or 12%?You can go for 100 hours of tournament/ring game play without ever seeing a hand where you're the stone cold nuts...unless you're counting on your buddy to show you his cards every hand you will never be as sure of your chances as you are right now.

1) I wasn't involving post-flop play in my discussion in order to evaluate the original question; only to make a point in regard to the large number of preflop match ups the previous poster had provided. My point was that being able to play post-flop is where you can find opportunities to get your money in as a significant favourite.2) I don't think calling in the original scenario with either AK or KTs in necessarily bad but the margin is admittedly smaller than I am probably comfortable with for the first hand of the (arguably) most prestigious poker tournament. I think I would still rather be confident enough in my post-flop play that I can get this maniac's (or one of the many, many other maniacs') chips when I'm a bigger favourite. I think the propensity for many of the m/e players this year to donk off chips will give me ample opportunity if I'm patient and play my game (which, in part, means avoiding near coin flips early on when I have a deep stack).3) With regard to the question about knowing whether your flopped set is wa/wb, that is part of superior play. I'm not going to claim that I am good enough to be right every time but I do know for a fact that unless I had confidence in my ability I would not have entered the main event (this may be particular to me as it seems a lot of m/e entrants played like they thought it was a game of roulette).4) I admit that this is a decent spot to get our chips all-in here but I think I would rather pass here and stick to my game plan.

[burgerman 0]

I know the math, agree with the posts about how important it is to call in this situation. However, I would prefer to make sure I played with Hansen and Ivey for the next three-four hours, rather than take a 3-2 chance that I would lose that opportunity on the first hand. I figure my odds to win the WSOP are about the same as me losing 30 pounds next month -- could happen -- when pigs fly. I figure that one of the best ways to make progress in poker is playing with better players and watching how they play. I could not pass up this opportunity. Over the long haul in poker, 3-4 hours on the same table as Hansen and Ivey is worth more than doubling my stack at this point in the tourney. If the scenario is put to me after we've played a couple of hours -- I agree with my learned colleagues and call. Otherwise, I make the donk play, fold and try to learn from the Masters.Best --Burgerman

[shpaget 0]

1) I wasn't involving post-flop play in my discussion in order to evaluate the original question; only to make a point in regard to the large number of preflop match ups the previous poster had provided. My point was that being able to play post-flop is where you can find opportunities to get your money in as a significant favourite.2) I don't think calling in the original scenario with either AK or KTs in necessarily bad but the margin is admittedly smaller than I am probably comfortable with for the first hand of the (arguably) most prestigious poker tournament. I think I would still rather be confident enough in my post-flop play that I can get this maniac's (or one of the many, many other maniacs') chips when I'm a bigger favourite. I think the propensity for many of the m/e players this year to donk off chips will give me ample opportunity if I'm patient and play my game (which, in part, means avoiding near coin flips early on when I have a deep stack).3) With regard to the question about knowing whether your flopped set is wa/wb, that is part of superior play. I'm not going to claim that I am good enough to be right every time but I do know for a fact that unless I had confidence in my ability I would not have entered the main event (this may be particular to me as it seems a lot of m/e entrants played like they thought it was a game of roulette).4) I admit that this is a decent spot to get our chips all-in here but I think I would rather pass here and stick to my game plan.

That's what this is all about...where is your line....some pros draw it at 51...others 60...others want more...what's yours?Do you fold QQ here, which, I believe, is the best hand against QhJh? That's 84%.Here's one...exact same scenario...but you also see the other 8 players' folded cards, and you see all the queens and jacks and most of the hearts are gone, making you 95%....you gotta call that now.And I think that's all this exercise is...what's your line...what edge are you willing to pass up...what edge are you NOT willing to pass up?The problem is, everyone single one of us here, you, me, God, thinks they are better post-flop than they really are.

[semaj550 0]

That's what this is all about...where is your line....some pros draw it at 51...others 60...others want more...what's yours?Do you fold QQ here, which, I believe, is the best hand against QhJh? That's 84%.Here's one...exact same scenario...but you also see the other 8 players' folded cards, and you see all the queens and jacks and most of the hearts are gone, making you 95%....you gotta call that now.And I think that's all this exercise is...what's your line...what edge are you willing to pass up...what edge are you NOT willing to pass up?The problem is, everyone single one of us here, you, me, God, thinks they are better post-flop than they really are.

My line is probably somewhere between 67% and 75%. That's about where I would feel comfortable calling off all my chips on the first hand of the m/e.And sure, I probably think I'm better postflop than I really am. I do know that I'm better than needing to gamble on the first hand on a coinflip. I still have enough confidence in my ability that I'll pass up being a 3:2 favorite here. I think that until we get to me being a 2:1 or 3:1 favorite I'm not going to be calling as I still have enough confidence in my abilities. At 3:1 I definately call and at 2:1 I am pretty sure I would make the call.So, in both of the situations you asked me about I defiantely make the call 100% of the time.

[tipster1964 0]

If his reason was bizarre for going all in, then I would be even more bizarre for calling with Ace high!! Simple as that.

[shpaget 0]

If his reason was bizarre for going all in, then I would be even more bizarre for calling with Ace high!! Simple as that.

Congratulations...you have just said the stupidest thing I've ever heard in my life.I thank the Internet every day.

[simo_8ball 0]

It's like saying "I wouldn't call because AK is a drawing hand, and I don't want to risk my tournament on just a draw".

[checkymcfold 0]

For those who are advocating folding when you are a 60.4% favorite, what advantage are you waiting for? (numbers via twodimes)T T vs JTs when you are a 61.3% favorite?K K vs AKs when you are a 65.9% favorite?or vs AQs when you are a 67.9% favorite?or vs AQo when you are a 72.2% favorite?A A vs 87s when you are a 77.0% favorite?or vs TT when you are a 80.1% favorite?or vs 27o when you are a 87.4% favorite?or vs AKs when you are a 87.9% favorite?Where do you draw the line?(grr, stupid two many emoticons error)

i play postflop poker, where there are bigger advantages.i also enjoy going all in, not calling all in when i am barely better than a coinflip.these are huge differences.if you showed me a situation in which i was a 60% favorite, i would go all in. i would probably fold if you went all in and i was put to the decision.

[tipster1964 0]

Congratulations...you have just said the stupidest thing I've ever heard in my life.I thank the Internet every day.

It was not Phil Ivey or Gus Hansen putting you all in. You just sit down and know jack about everybody except the 2 you see on tv. What kind of knowledge have you picked up from the table. On the very first hand I would need a solid BIG pair to call an all-in. For all you know, the guy putting you all in is so tight he only plays aces and the rest of the table would gain that knowledge from your stupidity. In my opinion, this is not the time you would want to get all you chips in the middle.

[shpaget 0]

if you showed me a situation in which i was a 60% favorite, i would go all in. i would probably fold if you went all in and i was put to the decision.

This makes no sense whatsoever.You ARE a 60% favourite...it's irrelevent to whether you push or call.If you push as a 60% favourite you WANT him to call, because he's getting a bad price, and it would therefore be a mistake for him to call...would you push postflop, say on the turn, where you're a 60% favourite, but now the pot has priced him into making it correct for him to call?This is completely different than a situation where you don't know what he has, but only suspect a range of hands...that's when you have a decision to make.When you know you're 60% (far from a coin flip)...the decision is easy...if you're godly enough to pass up a 60% advantage, good for you.

It was not Phil Ivey or Gus Hansen putting you all in. You just sit down and know jack about everybody except the 2 you see on tv. What kind of knowledge have you picked up from the table. On the very first hand I would need a solid BIG pair to call an all-in. For all you know, the guy putting you all in is so tight he only plays aces and the rest of the table would gain that knowledge from your stupidity. In my opinion, this is not the time you would want to get all you chips in the middle.

OK - you win...THIS is the studidest thing I've ever heard....I'm impressed you outdid yourself.Go back and read the original post....the guy who went all in doesn't have aces...HE HAS QhJh!!!!!!!YOU KNOW WHAT HE HAS!!!!!!!You know you are a 60/40 favourite over his EXACT hand!!!!!What don't you understand?????