nbliss16 0 Posted July 19, 2005 Share Posted July 19, 2005 here is what he wrote in commandment #8 of his final ESPN poker article... have a proposition bet for anyone interested: You pick who you believe are the 10 best players in the world, and I'll give you even money that none of them makes the final table of the main event by the time the 2012 London Olympics conclude.What do you guys think...??? Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Anonymous Posted July 19, 2005 Share Posted July 19, 2005 here is what he wrote in commandment #8 of his final ESPN poker article... have a proposition bet for anyone interested: You pick who you believe are the 10 best players in the world, and I'll give you even money that none of them makes the final table of the main event by the time the 2012 London Olympics conclude.What do you guys think...???by that time the field will be 30 000 Link to post Share on other sites
lax 0 Posted July 19, 2005 Share Posted July 19, 2005 jackpot jay sucks Link to post Share on other sites
Ron_Mexico 4,219 Posted July 19, 2005 Share Posted July 19, 2005 No, you suck. Link to post Share on other sites
blueodum 0 Posted July 19, 2005 Share Posted July 19, 2005 Some quick calculations:Assuming average size of the field 2006-2012 (7 MEs) = 8000Assuming chance of top 10 making final table is 5x that of average player in fieldChance of each of top 10: 5/8000*(9 spots)*(7 tournaments) = .039375Chance of none making it: (roughly) (1-.039375)^10 = 66.92%So, you'd have to assume that a top ten player is at least 7.55 times more likely to make the final table compared to the average player in an 8000 player field for the even-money prop to be a good bet. Link to post Share on other sites
greatwhite 0 Posted July 19, 2005 Share Posted July 19, 2005 Ivey is in the top 10 players in the world and he came in 20th. Matusow made it to the final table and he is in the top 25 I bet. I disagree with that statement. In fact I'd give the poster 9-1 odds. Link to post Share on other sites
TJ_Eckleburg 0 Posted July 19, 2005 Share Posted July 19, 2005 Jackpot Jay is an enjoyable read.That having been said, he really REALLY sucks at poker and gambling in general.That is all.P.S. ... Mike Matusow made the final table this year, and Ivey just missed the final table 2 out of the last 3 years. Link to post Share on other sites
Pug_Fugly 0 Posted July 19, 2005 Share Posted July 19, 2005 Some quick calculations:Assuming average size of the field 2006-2012 (7 MEs) = 8000Assuming chance of top 10 making final table is 5x that of average player in fieldChance of each of top 10: 5/8000*(9 spots)*(7 tournaments) = .039375Chance of none making it: (roughly) (1-.039375)^10 = 66.92%So, you'd have to assume that a top ten player is at least 7.55 times more likely to make the final table compared to the average player in an 8000 player field for the even-money prop to be a good bet.You are also assuming that all the players you name play in the main event every year. That might seem likely now but it's not a certainty. Link to post Share on other sites
Tparks86 0 Posted July 19, 2005 Share Posted July 19, 2005 I'd take the bet. You get seven years and ten players. I think Jackpot was trying to prove a point more than anything else, but it seems like a pretty even gamble to me. Link to post Share on other sites
kad 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 Ivey is in the top 10 players in the world and he came in 20th. Matusow made it to the final table and he is in the top 25 I bet. I disagree with that statement. In fact I'd give the poster 9-1 odds.Matusow top 25? Link to post Share on other sites
nbliss16 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Author Share Posted July 20, 2005 Honestly, I think there is hardly no way Ivey doesn't make a final table in the next 10 years. I mean he got 10th in 03 when his boat sank on the river. Come on. He was so close this year as well. I think he could just about make the final table based on his reputation alone. People are just scared of him, and with good reason. mix in 9 more guys and you got to think 1 will get there. What about someone like Dustin "neverwin" Woolf? His large field tournament results at the WSOP this year were 2 final tables and a 31st in the main event. What some of the older people don't realize is that the good young internet players take on large field tournaments on a daily basis. Really, it all they (or we) know. 3000, 5000, 10000 people doesn't really scare them.Greg Raymer might not be a bad take either. He seems to just have it, almost every time. Link to post Share on other sites
IveyII 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 IveyLedererNegreanuHellmuthRaymerLuskeEsfandiariTodd BrunsonGreensteinAnnie DukeI'd definately take that bet with these 10 Link to post Share on other sites
DCSports92GSR 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 IveyLedererNegreanuHellmuthRaymerLuskeEsfandiariTodd BrunsonGreensteinAnnie DukeI'd definately take that bet with these 10 Annie Duke???????????Esfandiari?????What the FUCK are you smoking?My picks would be:IveyLedererHarmanCunninghamAriehChanNegreanuHarringtonFlackRaymer[/i] Link to post Share on other sites
IveyII 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 I'm not smoking anything. You'd really take Arieh and Harrington over those 2? Harrington won't ever even get close again. Link to post Share on other sites
Spademan 94 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 For how short this thread is,I've seen so many monumentally stupid comments that, I wouldn't know where to begin in terms of addressing them.Therefore I must simply digress. Link to post Share on other sites
KingAustin 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 I'm not smoking anything. You'd really take Arieh and Harrington over those 2? Harrington won't ever even get close again.Let me guess, you just started playing poker, oh, a year and a half ago maybe? Link to post Share on other sites
DCSports92GSR 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 I'm not smoking anything. You'd really take Arieh and Harrington over those 2? Harrington won't ever even get close again.Let me guess, you just started playing poker, oh, a year and a half ago maybe? :lol:I love the "annie duke" bandwagon. It cracks me up when someone is asked "whos the best female poker player" and they answer " Oh man thats GOTTA be ANNIE DUKE!"... I would take Harman, Liebert, Violette, and even erin ness ( ) over annie any day :rofl:EDIT: Forgot to throw Eveyln and Gowen in there. Link to post Share on other sites
blueodum 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 NL Tournament - top 10 (IMO) for the next 7 years:(no particular order)Phil IveyDaniel NegreanuEric LindgrenBarry GreensteinGus HansenJohn JuandaJosh AriehCarlos MortensenMichael MizrachiDavid Pham Link to post Share on other sites
KingAustin 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 Dont they actually figure the last 9 people as the final table? I hear them say all the time, "10 players left, playing for the last spot for the final table." Link to post Share on other sites
DCSports92GSR 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 Dont they actually figure the last 9 people as the final table? Â I hear them say all the time, "10 players left, playing for the last spot for the final table."The "Final Table" is 9 handed. They condense to one ten manned table when they get 10, so they don't have to play two 5 handed tables. Link to post Share on other sites
KingAustin 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 Dont they actually figure the last 9 people as the final table? Â I hear them say all the time, "10 players left, playing for the last spot for the final table."The "Final Table" is 9 handed. They condense to one ten manned table when they get 10, so they don't have to play two 5 handed tables.Ya, I know this, but I'm saying this could come down to a broken bet because of semantics. Link to post Share on other sites
hoosierAKs 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 As good a player he is, you guys REALLY put Arieh on your TOP TEN?And I'm not even gonna BEGIN to touch on the guy who put Annie Duke... Link to post Share on other sites
GCP 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 Josh plays the kind of poker that can do it in these large fields. I don't know if he'd make my top 10 but he'd be right there.Can't leave off Juanda though guys, c'mon. Link to post Share on other sites
macphec 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 Violette is 10x the NL tourney player Duke is. And Duke over Harrington? You are smoking Link to post Share on other sites
Scanner313 0 Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 Harrington won't ever even get close again.Yeah, because he's only been there what, 4 times, winning once. And 2 of those times were the previous 2 years with what at the time were considered huge fields?Yeah, you're right. He's got no chance to make it there again, ever. :roll: Link to post Share on other sites
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