loogie 115 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 "One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider."-Sky Masterson Link to post Share on other sites
Jam-Fly 8 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 "One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider."-Sky MastersonI'm convinced Link to post Share on other sites
king1305 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 "One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider."-Sky MastersonYESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.... love it. Link to post Share on other sites
king1305 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 Anyone wanting action??? I'm wagering that he does it. Your 100: my 40 or your 50:my 20. Link to post Share on other sites
pt special 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 Anyone wanting action??? I'm wagering that he does it. Your 100: my 40 or your 50:my 20.ill bet against him Link to post Share on other sites
fighter 4 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 On the surface this seems ridiculously impossible. But this guys seems supremely confident. Apparently he did this in one single day!!:http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/8905/1kdayrn2.jpg20,000 hands in one day, winning almost $1,000 at over 9BB/100!I think anyone who is going to make a bet on this should do their homework and find out how he went for the rest of this ^^^^ challenge. See how he ran for the other 6 days of this week challenge and get an idea of what he will average hands and win rate wise. Link to post Share on other sites
Naked_Cowboy 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 i can't wait to F with him Link to post Share on other sites
KentuckySlim 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 Does point 12 include if a close family member dies? Or if you become severely ill? I'd make sure those are in the clause if I were you.I didn't think he would do it at first, but now I'm starting to think maybe he will. Hmmm, not sure, still gonna go with him not doing it, wouldn't be confident enough to put money on it atm tho.With the odds he's asking, he only needs to be able to pull this off 28.5% of the time to break even. I think he's a dog to do it, but I think his bet is WAY +EV. If he's willing to take WORSE odds at MORE money, that should raise a red flag (didn't he say odds are 2:1 if wagering more than 1k?). Link to post Share on other sites
cardcore 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 there's no way you can do this. if i were a betting man, i'd put up 200k to your 40k Link to post Share on other sites
Jariso13 1 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 I think a better question would be why would anyone even want to do this? Thats a sick number of most likely lonely hours to be sitting in front of a computer to only make a modest sum of money. Link to post Share on other sites
SlapStick 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 I think a better question would be why would anyone even want to do this? Thats a sick number of most likely lonely hours to be sitting in front of a computer to only make a modest sum of money.The last action I saw he was getting on 4, with the 10,000 he makes, he could get around 40k. Maybe more. Not bad for a month. Taking in the fact he is supposed to be a pretty sick multi-tabler before doing this Link to post Share on other sites
Jariso13 1 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 The last action I saw he was getting on 4, with the 10,000 he makes, he could get around 40k. Maybe more. Not bad for a month. Taking in the fact he is supposed to be a pretty sick multi-tabler before doing thisLets say he has a 40% chance of pulling it off and making 40k. (And from some of the posts on here is seems like 40% may be a little high) That makes his expected value on the bet 16k. There are a lot of other ways to get expected values close to that in a month and still live a healthy, social life. Also, I am not familiar with this player. What levels does he normally play and how much does he make online in a normal month? That definitely has to be factored into the equation before it can be determined if killing a month for a chance at around 40k is worth it.Also, if he starts off the month slowly he is going to kill himself putting in even more hands to try and catch up at the end of the month. Link to post Share on other sites
SlapStick 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 Lets say he has a 40% chance of pulling it off and making 40k. (And from some of the posts on here is seems like 40% may be a little high) That makes his expected value on the bet 16k. There are a lot of other ways to get expected values close to that in a month and still live a healthy, social life. Also, I am not familiar with this player. What levels does he normally play and how much does he make online in a normal month? That definitely has to be factored into the equation before it can be determined if killing a month for a chance at around 40k is worth it.I'm just assuming he will definitely do it, with the amount of action he is taking, and someone in the challenge thread was talking about him a few weeks ago, he seems very capable.I said this earlier, if he has over 20/30k action on 4, and is opening an account here just to get some more he has to be fully confident he can do it. Link to post Share on other sites
NoSup4U 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 I'm just assuming he will definitely do it, with the amount of action he is taking, and someone in the challenge thread was talking about him a few weeks ago, he seems very capable.I said this earlier, if he has over 20/30k action on 4, and is opening an account here just to get some more he has to be fully confident he can do it.I've played with him at significantly higher stakes and he's a very competent player.MarkEdit: Also, for people asking about why someone would want to do this, for the fame obv Link to post Share on other sites
ROBBBIGG 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 i'll bet 40 he wins if someone wants to put 100 against himpm me Link to post Share on other sites
HoosierAlum 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 there's no way you can do this. if i were a betting man, i'd put up 200k to your 40kif you are serious PM me, I will book thisAlso if anyone wants to bet against him at his stated odds, I will book the bet for pretty much any amt.edit: I know youre not serious but it was worth a try Link to post Share on other sites
SlapStick 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 if you are serious PM me, I will book thisAlso if anyone wants to bet against him at his stated odds, I will book the bet for pretty much any amt.edit: I know youre not serious but it was worth a tryI lol'd Link to post Share on other sites
Doug 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 If anyone wants action pm me here or on 2+2.~Doug This towns not big enough for the both of us. Link to post Share on other sites
Acid_Knight 2 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 edit: I know youre not serious but it was worth a tryIf there were ever a big enough degen though, cardcore would be your man for sure! Link to post Share on other sites
king1305 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 This towns not big enough for the both of us. Big gulps, huh? Welp, see ya later! Link to post Share on other sites
tskillz187 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 I would think an easy way to prevent him from doing this is to have people booking large action to sit at his tables and slow down his winrate.Just my opinion. Link to post Share on other sites
KentuckySlim 0 Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 I would think an easy way to prevent him from doing this is to have people booking large action to sit at his tables and slow down his winrate.Just my opinion.Read the OP. Link to post Share on other sites
loogie 115 Posted May 21, 2008 Share Posted May 21, 2008 Shut up, Doug.fyp & shut up Link to post Share on other sites
cardcore 0 Posted May 21, 2008 Share Posted May 21, 2008 if you are serious PM me, I will book thisAlso if anyone wants to bet against him at his stated odds, I will book the bet for pretty much any amt.edit: I know youre not serious but it was worth a trywould you really book this? Link to post Share on other sites
Potomophobia 17 Posted May 21, 2008 Share Posted May 21, 2008 Let's do some arithmetic:31 Days....... let's give him 6 hours of sleep...... that makes 18 hours a day of playing poker. 18 times 31 = 558 hours of poker.10,000/558 =17.92So he needs to average about $18/hour. Playing 24 tables. 18/24 = 0.75.To win this bet, he has to average winning 0.75/hour at each table.T paraphrase the quote from loogie: Don't end up with cider in your ear. Link to post Share on other sites
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