Thoughts On Open Ended Straight Draws Late In Tourneys

[MuckNuts 0]

i was just watching the replay of one of the wcoop nl holdem events where rambo5 one and there was a hand where the chipleader raised preflop around 3x bb and this player called from the sb with 89 suited. the flop came 10j2 and rambo5 had been playing tight so i guess u can put him on a big pair. Nonetheless, the sb led out around the pot and Rambo5 put him all-in. He was getting 2.8:1 to call but he did not. I know youre supposed to call since he cant be more than a 2:1 dog but the prize money was huge. I guess he was scared to chase and miss but thats such a tough spot to be in even though i would prob call everytime because you gotta love the odds sometimes

[TheCinciKid 0]

I'd probably check/raise all-in if I were the blind in that spot. Open raiser could just as easily have big cards or an under-pair and might fold to the check/raise. Of course, I don't know much about stack sizes or anything, but if I'm calling out of the blinds, I like check/raising way better than leading out. It's a stronger play and will more often cause a better hand to fold.

[JMoney2681 0]

i was just watching the replay of one of the wcoop nl holdem events where rambo5 one and there was a hand where the chipleader raised preflop around 3x bb and this player called from the sb with 89 suited. the flop came 10j2 and rambo5 had been playing tight so i guess u can put him on a big pair. Nonetheless, the sb led out around the pot and Rambo5 put him all-in. He was getting 2.8:1 to call but he did not. I know youre supposed to call since he cant be more than a 2:1 dog but the prize money was huge. I guess he was scared to chase and miss but thats such a tough spot to be in even though i would prob call everytime because you gotta love the odds sometimes

Why are you so bad at telling stories? So rambo raised preflop? Or the other guy did, and who is the "tight" player? ENGLISH! And having an open ended straight draw is not 2/1....Do you even know what you typed?

[MuckNuts 0]

8 cards on the flop to help thats 32 percent to the river thats 2:1 odds.

[TheCinciKid 0]

Why are you so bad at telling stories? So rambo raised preflop? Or the other guy did, and who is the "tight" player? ENGLISH! And having an open ended straight draw is not 2/1....Do you even know what you typed?

Actually, on the flop, if you get to see both cards, you're like 32% with most OESD's. Hence, getting 2.8-1 I would call all day if it was based solely on odds.

[flyingdonkey 0]

Yes

[JMoney2681 0]

8 cards on the flop to help thats 32 percent to the river thats 2:1 odds.

???WTF?I'm retarded.

[MuckNuts 0]

anyways the sb folded and ended up busting first of the 4 left and rambo5 had pocketaces in that spotj money are you dumb. your a 2:1 underdog on the flop 33 vs. 66 ok??? 33.333+66.6666 rougly equals 100 percent. you need to be getting 2:1 or better to chase your draws

[scottyno 0]

either check call or bet enough so that the bigstack knows you're potstuck so he cant bluff over the top and force you out. check calling probably lets you see the turn card for a pot sized bet since the other guy probably isnt going to drastically overbet the flop.

[MuckNuts 0]

some people like j money are just not winning players when they cant even count the cards

[JMoney2681 0]

some people like j money are just not winning players when they cant even count the cards

I suck at math

[XX44466XX 0]

You have the same odds of hitting an open-ended SD early in a tourney as you do late.I'm pretty sure.

[scottyno 0]

And some people are donkeys, like you...? An OESD is not 2:1 moron, its 3:1. So you need proper odds of 3:1, not 2:1, like you said. Dummy.And at least if I were to ever write a story, people could understand it...I would even use english! And commas, and periods too! It would be so neat, imagine that!

assuming you're all in and guarnateed to see both cards without having to put more money in its roughly 2-1

[MuckNuts 0]

jmoney u moron its ****en 2 to 1, not 3 not 4 but 2, the fraction is 2 over 1 you *** clown....never speak on this forum until you realize you know nothing about cards

[DaBruins 0]

And some people are donkeys, like you...? An OESD is not 2:1 moron, its 3:1. So you need proper odds of 3:1, not 2:1, like you said. Dummy.And at least if I were to ever write a story, people could understand it...I would even use english! And commas, and periods too! It would be so neat, imagine that!

is that an avatar of you? You sure speak like it.

[MuckNuts 0]

hahah borat - can i....touch you?

[JMoney2681 0]

jmoney u moron its ****en 2 to 1, not 3 not 4 but 2, the fraction is 2 over 1 you *** clown....never speak on this forum until you realize you know nothing about cards

Math > Me

[chaosnhavoc 0]

You have the same odds of hitting an open-ended SD early in a tourney as you do late.I'm pretty sure.

That pretty much sums it up!

[scottyno 0]

I was talking about getting the right odds to call...We know that 2:1 means...2 times me miss, once we make it = (1 in 3)So if out of 3 times, 1 time we make it and 2 times we don't..Lets see buddy...:::::EXAMPLE::::Pot is 100. Villian bets 100, so the pot now has 200. It is 100 to call. (2:1) So we call and invest 100. The first time we lose. The second time we lose. So we have lost 200. The third time we win. So we risked 300, (3 chances) lost 100x3 for our 3 calls, but then won the pot the 3rd time for 300. So we break even. Risk it all to break even?Let's see what happesn when we are layed 3 to 1....Pot is 200. Villian bets 100, so the pot now has 300. It is 100 to call (3:1) So we call and invest 100. The first time we lose. The second time we lose. So we have lost 200. The third time we win. So we risked 300 (3 chances) lost 100X3 for our 3 calls, but then won the 3rd time for 400. So we win 100, in the long run. Wow, we didnt' break even, we won! We actually risked chips to win something, not break even, Woo hoo. Do you like 2:1 or 3:1? I like winning.

what about all the times in the middle when its not exactly 2-1 or 3-1? :rolleyes:and when you're getting 2-1 you're supposed to call yes, first to all because you're likely 34-35% to win the hand, but thats not the main reason. If you call every time you will roughly break even over the long run, if you fold every time you will lose chips over the long run since you put chips in the pot preflop that you cant get back if you fold.

[S_Bite 0]

what about all the times in the middle when its not exactly 2-1 or 3-1? :rolleyes:and when you're getting 2-1 you're supposed to call yes, first to all because you're likely 34-35% to win the hand, but thats not the main reason. If you call every time you will roughly break even over the long run, if you fold every time you will lose chips over the long run since you put chips in the pot preflop that you cant get back if you fold.

Exactly my point, if you want to win money why then 3-1 why not 5-2, 7-3 or 9-1? The line has to go somewhere and it is right at 2-1 ( the break even point ) so that is why it says 2-1. If the pot by some weird fluke would happen to provide you with exact odds, lets pretend it is exactly 2-1 here, you can do what the *** you want and end up with the exact same money in the long run.{So the calling reasoning above is inaccurate, as the chips in the pot are already accounted for.}

[jlgosse 0]

jmoney, don't want to be the bringing of bad news, but you're making yourself sound like a total moron.also, i think the value of making the play (all-in) with at least a drawing hand is much better than 2:1 or 3:1 or whatever you think it is. I actually think that more than half of the time when you move all-in from this position with an OESD, your opponent folds. The other 50% of the time when he calls you are only a slight dog, which is amazing.This might be rugged math, but...50% + (0.33 * 50) = 50% + 16.5% = 66.5%Those are amazing odds.

[timwakefield 68]

???WTF?If you hit 33% of the time, that would be....1 in 3 times. so you need 3:1 odds. Is everyone asleep?

You are.Also nice try with the backtrack saying that you shouldn't call if you're getting just exactly the right odds, only call if you're getting better. That's completely stupid, and counterintuitive. What about the pot? If you're willing to give up on pots when you are getting exactly correct odds with no more betting, you're dumb.

[Canada 0]

8 cards on the flop to help thats 32 percent to the river thats 2:1 odds.

you need to allow for redrawsIn the hand from the OP for example a Q on the turn is likely to create a whole lot of outs for your opponent

I was talking about getting the right odds to call...We know that 2:1 means...2 times me miss, once we make it = (1 in 3)So if out of 3 times, 1 time we make it and 2 times we don't..Lets see buddy...:::::EXAMPLE::::Pot is 100. Villian bets 100, so the pot now has 200. It is 100 to call. (2:1) So we call and invest 100. The first time we lose. The second time we lose. So we have lost 200. The third time we win. So we risked 300, (3 chances) lost 100x3 for our 3 calls, but then won the pot the 3rd time for 300. So we break even. Risk it all to break even?Let's see what happesn when we are layed 3 to 1....Pot is 200. Villian bets 100, so the pot now has 300. It is 100 to call (3:1) So we call and invest 100. The first time we lose. The second time we lose. So we have lost 200. The third time we win. So we risked 300 (3 chances) lost 100X3 for our 3 calls, but then won the 3rd time for 400. So we win 100, in the long run. Wow, we didnt' break even, we won! We actually risked chips to win something, not break even, Woo hoo. Do you like 2:1 or 3:1? I like winning.

Nice try at backtracking, but its pretty transparentGrow up and say "I was wrong". It doesn't hurt much...

[sholden 0]

you need to allow for redraws

You need to allow for runner runner two pairs, runner runner trips, runner runner flushes that also win the hand for you - which conveniantly all even out to somewhere around 33%.If there is one of your suit on the flop and your opponent has pocket kings instead of a set then you are 34% which makes for an profitable call. If he has pocket jacks you're in trouble.But to the original point - 2.8:1 is plenty to call given you aren't playing someone who would only push with a set (and such people probably don't exist late in a tourny) but the draw should be the one pushing anyway (probably via a check-raise, and praying the other guy doesn't check behind).

[Tantalar 0]

The same arguement could be made about getting the right odds with an OESD and a suited connecter 3 handed all in pre flop. Just because your getting the odds doesnt mean you have to do it. Unless your a bad player who relies on getting into coinflip or .3333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 situations in order to win tournaments. In tournaments you dont have to make the mathematical plays that you would in a cash game, becuase in a cash game you just re load if you miss your mathematically correct play... but in a tournament, in a hypothetical sitution... if you call off half whole stack with oh say, I gutshot, when getting say... 6-1 odds its not a good play in a tournament, as it would be in a cash game.