Paul Wasicka Folding The Oesfd

[CardWarfare 4]

What I really think this hand shows is how utterly lucky Gold was the whole tournament. He moves in with the worst hand, a draw, and still if both other guys would have called he still would have won, that's just amazing.

Wrong.Wasica makes his flush on the river if he calls

[chrisuk_sw 0]

If Gold has a better flush draw, Wasicka is between 25%-45% to win the hand against just Gold. Someone smarter than me can do a pot odds vs tournament equity calculation but its in no way an easy call.

[TheWatchMan 0]

thanks scotty.if i'm reading that right, and he folded 7s, 8s, that is ridiculous. even if you assume binger folds (not a big problem), he's gotta know he's better than 50% against gold's range here.people say its a lot of cash, and they're right. but he'd also already guaranteed a lot of cash. its not as if gold was guaranteed the win, and the other two had meaninglessly small stacks though, that pot gives him half the chips in the tourney, and a very good chance to win.i hope wasicka is really masochistic and trolls poker forums looking for opinions on the hand, so i can tell him personally that this fold was absolutely disgusting, and reflects negatively on not only his intelligence and poker play, but his existence as a person.

AMEN

[Dr_Shakes 0]

The real question is WWDD? Daniel would call so it is obviously the right choice.I don't think it was a terrible fold for a good chance to move up 2 mil in money, but if he truly is playing to win he can't fold as others have stated.

[ripptyde 0]

Daniel fold an open ended straight flush draw ?????not in this lifetime

[....Ian.... 0]

FWIW, i woulda folded too. cuz i woulda said gold is either ahead or on a draw (prob spades which nulls mine)its a 50% pay jump from 2nd to 3rd. i know i'm in the minority here, but i fold

[CaneBrain 95]

I dont fold because when you play 87 of spades what else are hoping to flop? That is the flop you are looking for...if you arent going to go the distance when you flop an OESFD than dont play suited connectors in the first place.however we are talking about two million in REAL money. I love the armchair QBs on here who have never had to make a decision even remotely that tough.Sure I like calling here but I will give him the benefit of the doubt on his fold....the result was he gained two million bucks. could be worse.

[WowThats 0]

I will not criticize Wasica play "its his choice" the best way to sum it up... Wasica played the hand the way he wanted to play it regardless if he was playing to win or playing for the money it was his decision. Gold was very lucky catching most of everything, we have all played against a player who has done the same thing to us "it makes you start second guessing yourself" just like what happen to every player at the final table each began second guessing their first decision.Another way to look at it... Wasica finished second in the 2006 WSOP main event where did you finish the the event?

[Actuary 3]

After getting the 3rd place prize, I'd do whatever maximizes the chance to get a bracelet. Who cares about 2MM more when you have 4MM. Even after taxes you never have to work again. At least if you live in the MidWest/SouthEast. I mean, yeah it's 2MM more; but after I hit the FT, it's time to play for the bracelet. Perhaps I'm poorer that some and the first 4MM for 3rd is enough to get by ( I think it was ~4MM?)********************WowsTHat,you are so insightfulkeep posting.

[dapokerbum 0]

I will not criticize Wasica play "its his choice" the best way to sum it up... Wasica played the hand the way he wanted to play it regardless if he was playing to win or playing for the money it was his decision. Gold was very lucky catching most of everything, we have all played against a player who has done the same thing to us "it makes you start second guessing yourself" just like what happen to every player at the final table each began second guessing their first decision.Another way to look at it... Wasica finished second in the 2006 WSOP main event where did you finish the the event?

Who cares where we finished. Do you watch football and say that the QB made a bad call. Yes we all do it so quiet down with that response we are trying to understand the guys thought process which we can't seem to understand given that in a $10 tourney we call everytime.On that note I call everytime cause I play to win and if he really thought that he was playing to win then he shoulda called. Period.

[benhoug 0]

I dont fold because when you play 87 of spades what else are hoping to flop? That is the flop you are looking for...if you arent going to go the distance when you flop an OESFD than dont play suited connectors in the first place.

I haven't read all the responses, but this is a definite QFT What else was he hoping to flop??? I guess 888, 777 778 or 887 woulda been OK flops too...I think if we lead the flop for 3M the hand plays out entirely differently.

[FatBurger 0]

I fold because I've already made a deal with Gold to get the bracelet in exchange for the cash.

[SpiderGuard 0]

I think the problem with this fold (and most of the final table) is that everyone thought they could outplay Jamie Gold so no one really tried to make calls like this against him. I know it's just hype, but in the interview he said something like "He could have a ten to one chip advantage and I'd still beat him." Everyone thought they were better than an incredibly deep stacked Jamie Gold so they made bad plays at him.

[WowThats 0]

[b]Who cares where we finished[/b]. Do you watch football and say that the QB made a bad call. Yes we all do it so quiet down with that response we are trying to understand the guys thought process which we can't seem to understand given that in a $10 tourney we call everytime.On that note I call everytime cause I play to win and if he really thought that he was playing to win then he shoulda called. Period.

Honestly I have yet to read a thread that is not criticizing the play... yes everyone does Monday morning QB but playing QB weekly/yearly in the NFL is entirely different than playing in your first final WOSP final table.I care where I finish, I would be willing to wager everyone on this forum cares where they finish in a tournament.

[WowThats 0]

After getting the 3rd place prize, I'd do whatever maximizes the chance to get a bracelet. Who cares about 2MM more when you have 4MM. Even after taxes you never have to work again. At least if you live in the MidWest/SouthEast. I mean, yeah it's 2MM more; but after I hit the FT, it's time to play for the bracelet. Perhaps I'm poorer that some and the first 4MM for 3rd is enough to get by ( I think it was ~4MM?)

I agree with your statement... For the $2 million difference between 2nd and 3rd I have to go for the money first, the victory second. $2 million is a lot of money that may only come by a person chance only one time in their entire life span.I personally believe the other eight players let their ego get in front of their decision making abilities "believing they were the better player(s)". We have all seen better teams, candidates, products get beaten by the underdog. The last 4 years final WSOP table was no different. Jamie Gold got inside of every player's head especially Cunningham, Cunningham did not know if he should call, fold or raise that set the stage for the other players who were looking to Cunningham to knock off Gold.Jamie Gold made the statement "I going to trap them all" and he did trap them all. When Gold raised to $4 million when he had AA he could have had 7/2os Cunningham and Binger would have still folded!

[sixhands 0]

Honestly I have yet to read a thread that is not criticizing the play... yes everyone does Monday morning QB but playing QB weekly/yearly in the NFL is entirely different than playing in your first final WOSP final table.I care where I finish, I would be willing to wager everyone on this forum cares where they finish in a tournament.Yes you are correct that I care where I finish in the ME. I would have been proud to say that I finished 3rd or even 10th for that matter. I would still be a millionaire.I would have called but right before that I would have quoted Dave Chapelle ...I'm RICH bitch, I call

[Uppie_ 0]

First off Search function this was discussed for ever right after the final table happened. We probably didn't need a new thread on it. and ya your hopeing for that flop but not that kind of action. and it is 14hours into the session 9 days or so into a tourament and a 3million dollar choice on a at best a slight favorite, at worst 6 outs. If he wins this pot he does give himself a chance heads up with gold loses it pretty much conceeds to second.there is probably some ev calc but thats way to complex for me to try to figure out but i will take a shot. so you first have to figure out what the monteray value of each chip really is(not going to) then figure out your value, for all the situations, you fold BBwins, you fold gold wins, you call you win, you call you beat just gold, you call and both lose. and then get your chip stacks for each result and figure out what the real value of each is, then divide them 3 ways some how thats my hang up, and figure out the % you have to have to make that call. you may need more then a 50% draw not sure cause i can't do that mathOh and I forgot have to figure to if you call BB folds and you win.

[Actuary 3]

. you may need more then a 50% draw not sure cause i can't do that math

yeah, there's substantial evidence to support that you should not be doing Tourney Equity calculations.

[Uppie_ 0]

yeah, there's substantial evidence to support that you should not be doing Tourney Equity calculations.

Why? he is only 56% to win against AT and I would have to at least put a guy on that. agaisnt golds hand and AT hes 53%, how ever if gold has a set hes 44% and if gold has two spades better then him hes only 27%

[Actuary 3]

Why? he is only 56% to win against AT and I would have to at least put a guy on that. agaisnt golds hand and AT hes 53%, how ever if gold has a set hes 44% and if gold has two spades better then him hes only 27%

see what I quoted.if we are 50% overall agianst the range, folding is bad.You can have an different opinion on the ranges; but IF WE ARE 50%, folding is bad. You said "you may need more then a 50% draw" that's ludicrous

[WowThats 0]

Many people do not understand the basic concepts of probability, as evidenced by the proliferation of those participating in lotteries, horse racing, and gambling at casinos. But probability and statistics are becoming increasingly important in today’s society. As the basic ideas are being taught in elementary schools through college, it’s important that everyone has a basic understanding of probability theory. Probability theory explains the happenings that occur due to chance. Although it is not possible to predict for certain the individual outcome of a chance process, it is possible to determine outcomes in the “long run,” and to predict the probability that something will eventually occur. This book will present the basics of probability in a non-rigorous manner. Only an understanding of arithmetic and some basic algebra are necessary to learn these ideas. No high-powered mathematical notation or formal proofs will be used, rather the concepts will be developed from examples using coins, dice, cards, and other common probability devices. Contents Chapter 1 – Basic Concepts of Probability Chapter 2 – Sample Spaces Chapter 3 – The Addition Rules Chapter 4 – The Multiplication Rules Chapter 5 – Odds and Expectation Chapter 6 – The Counting Rules Chapter 7 – The Binomial Distribution Chapter 8 – Other Probability Distributions Chapter 9 – The Normal Distribution Chapter 10– Simulation Final Exam Answers to Final Exam Appendix: Bayes'Theorem

http://rapidshare.de/files/34670469/Probability_Demystified.pdf.html

[FatBurger 0]

It's true, but at least probability is tougher than quote tags.

[Actuary 3]

Wowsthat,huh?don't be a moron.

[WowThats 0]

Acturay,The excerpt is from the actual book you moron "you're a shallow person". If someone wants to read the book its there no reason to get yer feelings all hurt.... LMAOAU

[fluffydog83 0]

You couldn't be more wrong. If anyone has ever listened to a Paul Wasicka interview, he made it very clear that he wasn't playing for more money, he was playing to win. He made a very intelligent, deep, and thought provoking reason as to why he folded his hand. If he knew what Gold had, he would have called, but he thought he was dead to a higher flush draw. If that was the case, 8 outs isn't **** in a 3 way pot. He knew Binger was gonna call. He made a very appropriate decision given the situation he thought he was in. He knew Gold had a flush draw. With this knowledge, does anyone know what the likelyhood was the Jamie Gold held one of the only three spade hands that Wasicka could beat? Case and point.

Wrong, sir! Wrong! Under section 37B of the contract signed by him, it states quite clearly that all offers shall become null and void if - and you can read it for yourself in this photostatic copy - "I, the undersigned, shall forfeit all rights, privileges, and licenses herein and herein contained," et cetera, et cetera..."Fax mentis incendium gloria cultum," et cetera, et cetera..."Memo bis punitor delicatum!" It's all there, black and white, clear as crystal! You stole fizzy lifting drinks. You bumped into the ceiling which now has to be washed and sterilized, so you get nothing! You lose! Good day sir! Hello? Are you this gullible? DO you believe everything that everyone says? Of course he says he's playing for the win, he has an ego to protect. But when you're in the spotlight and forced with that decision, human instincts chose to go the safe route, rather than risk it. The logical play was to call. He didn't, because he wanted more money. He says he wants to get known. Why would he say "no, I was playing for the money" and lose respect from kiddies like you who think he was actually playing for the win? Please go check the world "gullible" in the dictionary, and make sure it is there.