hypothetical first hand of a 10k

[dictionary 0]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=828025look at the EVi'm sure you could rig the perfect set of hands against AA/AA but this were random ones i picked.

[bigslicksuited 0]

as hard as it would be..you have to fold..i personally have been burnt on aces so many times that it wouldnt be that hard of a fold for me..do you really want to risk your whole tournament on the first hand??

[Emptyeye 0]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=828049 <---results with the hands in question.

[Keyz11 0]

1st of all, who all hear "knows" they are gonna cash if they play in a 10K buy in event? The chances of cashing in the event are much slimmer than your chances of winning here. I know you all here are world class players and maybe im just not as confident that Id finish in the top 10% as some of you, but i would go ahead and make this call, and either start the tournament with 80K and a nice chip lead or go home with a nice story about how i lost the 1st hand with pocket rockets.

[Johnny Socko 0]

Two options:1) if you are one of the worst players in the tournament, throw all your chips in the pot as fast as you can because this is the best situation you're going to get.2) if you are one of the better players in the tournament, fold this without thinking twice. You will get better chances to build your stack, without the risk of busting out 75% of the time.And dont forget, 8 other people at the table are willing to push all-in without AA. Therefore, the longer I can play with these idiots, the more I like my chances. I fold it and then pick these people apart for the next few hours.

[machete 0]

Ask yourself what a pro would do. DN for instance.I think you push in and pray.

[justblaze 0]

When I read the post my thinking was to fold because too many people in the pot, so i did a little experiment. I dealt out 50 hands giving BB As Ad, the results were this (now I know 50 hands is not alot) AA won 11 times out of 50 about 1in5 not good odds to me to get busted out of a 10K tourny in the first hand, so I wont definatly fold , also AA did not win 2 hands in a row out of the 50 :shock:

thanks for completing this thorough mathematical investigation for us. the jury has reached a verdict, based on this undoubtable evidence. Your margin of error here is probably ~25%.

I never said it was (thourough) I just thought I would try it to see how AA held up in 50 deals, and I also thought that some people would be interested in the result.Do I detect sarcasm in your responce? seems like it to me.

yes. yes you do.

[Monster_Josh 0]

I didn't that question was very tough. I think a better question would be, what if all eight goes all in and you're sure the tenth is too and you see 7c,2s? Are you gonna be the one on the table to punk out cause you got 72?

[otnemem 0]

as hard as it would be..you have to fold..i personally have been burnt on aces so many times that it wouldnt be that hard of a fold for me..do you really want to risk your whole tournament on the first hand??

What level of the tournament you're competing in is totally irrelevant to what decision you should make. This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. So what if one player pushes before the flop? Do you fold your aces now because it's the first hand of the tournament? You should be playing to win, not to "stick around." This isn't a social gathering, it's a poker tournament, and you should be playing to WIN MONEY. That's what's wrong with this board, IMO. Way too many beginners who don't understand the fundamentals of the game. Poker tournaments are fun, and yeah it's exciting to play in a big buy-in tourney. But you're playing to win. The fact that you would make a horrible lay down just so you can hang around the pros for a little longer is asinine. Also, in regard to the original post - you should never scrape together all your cash and enter a tourney for your entire bankroll. Play a satellite or something. $30 can get you into the big one...

[Magnum666 0]

I imagine many top pros would lay this down even if it was heads up on the first hand of the WSOP if the man in front of them went all-in.No money invested, usually only a 3-1 or 4-1 favorite...why risk getting bumped in order to double up so early.  With the blinds as small as they are, it would seem to be much safer to play small pots to build up a chipstack.  Doubling up to 20k early doesn't seem like it would make that much of a difference in the long run.

i guarantee you no self respecting pro would lay down AA heads up at any point in any tournament, ever, with the possible exception of some absurd satellite situation in the most unlikely set of chipcount circumstances. the WORST aces can be is a 4-1 favourite, headsup. ONLY a 4-1 favourite???? what are you looking for, a better situation?

First of all, you can be worse than 4-1 with AA (about a 3 1/2 to 1 favorite heads up against middle suited connectors (eg 7-8) when they are a different suit than the aces)but anyway, I would be looking for a "better situation" than 4-1 to go all in with on the first hand....post-flop for example when your opponent is either drawing dead or is a huge dog. I don't think pros want to risk everything one the first hand of the big one with a reasonable expectation of getting knocked out.

[Magnum666 0]

ok that freakin smiley face above should be an 8

[yeffy 0]

Can someone run this through Wilson or some other calculator and give us the odds?Seat 1: YOU with Ah AdSeat 2: Ac AsSeat 3: JQhSeat 4: 78hSeat 5: 23hSeat 6: JQdSeat 7: 78dSeat 8: 23dSeat 9: JQcSeat 9: JQs

This is kind of a weird simulation to run since all 4 Queens and all 4 Jacks are out of the deck, and all of the other hands are duplicated. This situation boosts the equity of the Aces since the connectors straight possibilties are limited due to missing cards, and half of two suits are removed from the deck.It is interesting how the range of hands can swing the results. Check out the vast difference in EV for the Aces here:http://twodimes.net/h/?z=828142Not that this proves anything.I think it is a question of tournament strategy. Sure you give yourself a shot at a huge stack early on. You also exponentially increase your chance of busting early. By day four the 80,000 chips you picked up here will be average chip count.I'm certainly not saying you "have to" fold here, but I would. Even if I had "unlimited buy-ins" it doesn't matter. The WSOP happens only once a year! I like to play small pots untill I have a significant advantage on someone....and a chip lead. If you wait untill later in the event to start playing big pots you can avoid ever being all-in and therefore eliminate your chances of going bust in a pot like this.

[yeffy 0]

First of all, you can be worse than 4-1 with AA (about a 3 1/2 to 1 favorite heads up against middle suited connectors (eg 7-8) when they are a different suit than the aces)but anyway, I would be looking for a "better situation" than 4-1 to go all in with on the first hand....post-flop for example when your opponent is either drawing dead or is a huge dog.  I don't think pros want to risk everything one the first hand of the big one with a reasonable expectation of getting knocked out.

Ummm......A A = 77%7 8 = 23%

[Magnum666 0]

as hard as it would be..you have to fold..i personally have been burnt on aces so many times that it wouldnt be that hard of a fold for me..do you really want to risk your whole tournament on the first hand??

What level of the tournament you're competing in is totally irrelevant to what decision you should make. This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. So what if one player pushes before the flop? Do you fold your aces now because it's the first hand of the tournament? You should be playing to win, not to "stick around." This isn't a social gathering, it's a poker tournament, and you should be playing to WIN MONEY. That's what's wrong with this board, IMO. Way too many beginners who don't understand the fundamentals of the game. Poker tournaments are fun, and yeah it's exciting to play in a big buy-in tourney. But you're playing to win. The fact that you would make a horrible lay down just so you can hang around the pros for a little longer is asinine. Also, in regard to the original post - you should never scrape together all your cash and enter a tourney for your entire bankroll. Play a satellite or something. $30 can get you into the big one...

So by this logic would you put all your money in on the first hand as, say a 55% favorite? Tournaments are different from cash games where you should take advantage of even slight edges; in tournaments survival has to be taken into account.

[Magnum666 0]

First of all, you can be worse than 4-1 with AA (about a 3 1/2 to 1 favorite heads up against middle suited connectors (eg 7-8) when they are a different suit than the aces)but anyway, I would be looking for a "better situation" than 4-1 to go all in with on the first hand....post-flop for example when your opponent is either drawing dead or is a huge dog.  I don't think pros want to risk everything one the first hand of the big one with a reasonable expectation of getting knocked out.

Ummm......A A = 77%7 8 = 23%

exactly....3.35 to 1

[gadjet 11]

Can someone run this through Wilson or some other calculator and give us the odds?Seat 1: YOU with Ah AdSeat 2: Ac AsSeat 3: JQhSeat 4: 78hSeat 5: 23hSeat 6: JQdSeat 7: 78dSeat 8: 23dSeat 9: JQcSeat 9: JQs

This is kind of a weird simulation to run since all 4 Queens and all 4 Jacks are out of the deck, and all of the other hands are duplicated. This situation boosts the equity of the Aces since the connectors straight possibilties are limited due to missing cards, and half of two suits are removed from the deck.It is interesting how the range of hands can swing the results. Check out the vast difference in EV for the Aces here:http://twodimes.net/h/?z=828142Not that this proves anything.I think it is a question of tournament strategy. Sure you give yourself a shot at a huge stack early on. You also exponentially increase your chance of busting early. By day four the 80,000 chips you picked up here will be average chip count.I'm certainly not saying you "have to" fold here, but I would. Even if I had "unlimited buy-ins" it doesn't matter. The WSOP happens only once a year! I like to play small pots untill I have a significant advantage on someone....and a chip lead. If you wait untill later in the event to start playing big pots you can avoid ever being all-in and therefore eliminate your chances of going bust in a pot like this.

I just thought it would be an interesting thing to see... and it does show that you are a 5% dog to the other Aces... I know it's dumb, I was just interested.

[otnemem 0]

as hard as it would be..you have to fold..i personally have been burnt on aces so many times that it wouldnt be that hard of a fold for me..do you really want to risk your whole tournament on the first hand??

What level of the tournament you're competing in is totally irrelevant to what decision you should make. This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. So what if one player pushes before the flop? Do you fold your aces now because it's the first hand of the tournament? You should be playing to win, not to "stick around." This isn't a social gathering, it's a poker tournament, and you should be playing to WIN MONEY. That's what's wrong with this board, IMO. Way too many beginners who don't understand the fundamentals of the game. Poker tournaments are fun, and yeah it's exciting to play in a big buy-in tourney. But you're playing to win. The fact that you would make a horrible lay down just so you can hang around the pros for a little longer is asinine. Also, in regard to the original post - you should never scrape together all your cash and enter a tourney for your entire bankroll. Play a satellite or something. $30 can get you into the big one...

So by this logic would you put all your money in on the first hand as, say a 55% favorite? Tournaments are different from cash games where you should take advantage of even slight edges; in tournaments survival has to be taken into account.

No, because this doesn't incorporate the same logic. There are a few differences here. One, if you have aces, you know you have a marked edge. In any other situation, you'd have to base your decision on a read. In this situation, you're an absolute favorite. And I assume in your 55% example you're referring to a heads-up situation. So would I go all-in that early with 10-10 against A-K or a similar coin flip? No, because the edge is not so defined. But if I have aces, I'm always 3-1 or better...

[gadjet 11]

What level of the tournament you're competing in is totally irrelevant to what decision you should make. This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. So what if one player pushes before the flop? Do you fold your aces now because it's the first hand of the tournament?

I'm guessing you don't play many tournaments... If one player pushes I call. because I am going to win the hand probably 80% of the time because I can assume that he's pushing with KK or A-K... By pushing with 9 callers you are going to lose your money as much as 80% of the time... I still think the argument everyone's avoiding is that someone else probably has A's too so your only looking at a 4 to 1 return...

[justblaze 0]

What level of the tournament you're competing in is totally irrelevant to what decision you should make. This is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. So what if one player pushes before the flop? Do you fold your aces now because it's the first hand of the tournament?

I'm guessing you don't play many tournaments... If one player pushes I call. because I am going to win the hand probably 80% of the time because I can assume that he's pushing with KK or A-K... By pushing with 9 callers you are going to lose your money as much as 80% of the time... I still think the argument everyone's avoiding is that someone else probably has A's too so your only looking at a 4 to 1 return...

i dont know that you can make that assumption.

[sloshr 0]

Easy call here. If you lose, you are out, but if you win, you have 90K in chips. I wouldn't assume someone else has AA, since it is more likely that 2 of your opponents have an ace. It is very difficult to run 10K in chips to 90K, and I would gladly take a 30% chance of doing so. If you win this, you can literally fold every hand the rest of the day and be among the leaders at the end of the day, or you can bully the players at your new table who will all have very small stacks compared to yours.Sure, more often than not, you will be out, but you have a much better chance of making the money or winning the tournament this way.

[akishore 0]

guys, everyone has valid points. if i can make this short and quick, here's why i would fold:1. i care about tournament survival.2. i don't have an infinite bankroll.3. i think i am better than the average player post-flop, and i'd rather get my money in where i won't bust out 75-80% of the time. i don't want to gamble with pre-flop poker.4. i would guess that someone else has AA. this drastically reduces my chances of winning even HALF the pot, and suddenly the 8-1 proposition doesn't look even close to being as good anymore.5. i would prefer to stay out of big pots early in the tournament until i know i have the absolute best of it. sure, AA is the best starting hand, but it's a starting hand, and that's all. i prefer to build my chips steadily early on.no need to flame me, i would fold this is in a heartbeat, but i understand why others would call. it's just personal style.aseem

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

I think what people are forgetting is the fact that you're compensated by the HUGE huge advantage of what happens when you win the hand. At the end of day 1 of the 2004 WSOP main event, the chipleader had 130k in chips. On a side note, someone named Gregory Paul Raymer was in 4th with 77k. You'd have 90k on HAND 2!Since this will never happen and we're being theoretical anyway, let's say this happens to you on the next 100 tournaments of this magnitude that you buy into on the first hand. If you call every time, you win the hand 20-something times, making you an instant chipleader and giving you a dominant advantage over the field. If you fold every time you've still got 10k in chips at (basically) the start of the tournament, and your results would be indicative of what they'd be anyway if you played 100 consecutive 10K events. I'm sorry, even with tournament structures, I think calling is the more profitable play.For those of you who read my post, I am a successful WINNING tournament player in low-buyin MTT's online. I only cash in about 20% of the tournaments I play anyway. But, about 50% of the times I cash I make the final table. Having that big an edge early on is something I could ride to a lot better success rate, to even compensate the 80-whatever percent of the time I get knocked out.PS: The plaintiff's exhibit A: no day 1 chip leader of the modern era of the World Series of Poker has ever gone on to win it (or maybe even make a final table? I'm not sure about that one).

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

4. I would guess someone else has AAI think this is an irrelevant point. If there could ever be a situation where all 8 people are in pre-flop it's because they obviously don't care about their cards. If they don't care then you can't put anyone on that kind of hand.

[jayboogie 0]

Your getting 8:1 odds on your money with the best starting hand possible, how do you not call? If your playing to win or at least finish high in the money, you need to call. If you just want to make it on the bubble and make a little bit on to of your buy-in, go ahead and fold. Tournament poker is all about going for the win, it simply does not pay to finish just in the money in a MTT. The structures are all top heavy, you see the most successful tournament players either end up at the final table or bust out early. If your bankroll isn't adequate in the first place, you shouldn't be playing in it. If you got in through a satellite, you need to think of it as a freeroll or as a buy-in for whatever you spent to get into the tournament and play the same way as you would normally do for any tournament.

[Guest XXEddie]

12 of these threads already

nope, i think its 12 thousandand like ive said 12000 times, I callbut this would seriously NEVER happen