Preflop Decision

[HoosierAlum 0]

Stars late night 11rebuy. 23 ppl left, avg stack around 125k. I have recently been moved to the table and raised 2 or 3 times already. I have no read on villian, except that he insta-jammed. (take that for what its worth)P.S. This decision might be automatic but lately Ive been making mistakes late and I need to fix leaks.PokerStars Game #4951881443: Tournament #24673368, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (2000/4000) - 2006/05/16 - 05:30:34 (ET)Table '24673368 24' 9-max Seat #3 is the buttonSeat 1: jdepa01fcp (110001 in chips) Seat 2: sobhlo (65128 in chips) Seat 3: kingpin023 (39074 in chips) Seat 4: Nachmann (122084 in chips) Seat 6: PROGIRL (102556 in chips) Seat 7: Icewind (106998 in chips) Seat 8: gbot22 (103325 in chips) Seat 9: pokerczar8 (391943 in chips) jdepa01fcp: posts the ante 200sobhlo: posts the ante 200kingpin023: posts the ante 200Nachmann: posts the ante 200PROGIRL: posts the ante 200Icewind: posts the ante 200gbot22: posts the ante 200pokerczar8: posts the ante 200Nachmann: posts small blind 2000PROGIRL: posts big blind 4000*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to jdepa01fcp [Qh As]Icewind: folds gbot22: folds pokerczar8: folds jdepa01fcp: raises 6000 to 10000sobhlo: folds kingpin023: folds Nachmann: raises 111884 to 121884 and is all-inPROGIRL: folds

[PrtyPSux 0]

callcallcallcallcallcall..... :Dalso, fyp...avg stack was 126k I checked before you called.

[Rocketwadster 0]

What is the payout structure for this tournament? What do you hope to accomplish in it (ie. shoot for first regardless; lets make a final table and see what happens, etc.)? For me personally, I would fold there without hesitation.

[mk 11]

I fold this because I always bust late with AQ, lol. But seriously, against one of the 50k-ish stacks it gets closer. Against this cat, I think it's a tough call to make. Villain doesn't gain much by just picking up your raise plus the blinds and antes. He's serious about his hand. I'd call with TT+, AK.

[gobears 0]

Doesn't seem like he wants a call with that jam. I looked up villain's stats on pokerdb and he's got three final tables and about $7K in prize money.Based on that, I don't think that he's being tricky and jamming with a premium hand. Also, he's seen you "steal" two or three times already so that would play into his thinking also.I think that you have at least a coin flip so call the jam.

[diamondhead 0]

I fold this, not sure i want to bust with AQ here.

[Rocketwadster 0]

I think that you have at least a coin flip so call the jam.

I would think that the higher the probability of a coin flip, the higher the incentive to pass...

[mk 11]

I would think that the higher the probability of a coin flip, the higher the incentive to pass...

i don't agree with this at all, but i just don't think we're a coinflip vs. his range here. i think we're behind and we're getting pretty weak pot odds.

[Rocketwadster 0]

i don't agree with this at all, but i just don't think we're a coinflip vs. his range here. i think we're behind and we're getting pretty weak pot odds.

So, the later into a tourney you go, the more coin flips you like to take? You a greg Raymer fan??? lolputting an opponent to a decision where it is probably a coin flip if they call is one thing, but calling where it is probably a coin flip is an entirely other thing...

[SonicReducer 0]

I fold this and wait for a better spot. At this point in the tourney you gain so much in payout for every spot you move up.

[HoosierAlum 0]

but calling where it is probably a coin flip is an entirely other thing...

Well, yes and no.http://www.pocketfives.com/4460122F-0D1E-4...1605B17271.aspxIm still thinking about this hand and cant decide if I should be calling in spots like this late. Bahh.BTW, what do we think villians range is here? AQ-AK, 77-KK? Maybe AJs, doubtful but maybe.

At this point in the tourney you gain so much in payout for every spot you move up.

Well no and this is a bad way of thinking. The real big payout increases don't begin until you get in the top 4, and 9-23 are all basically meaningless. I am playing to win, and if I win a flip here I am vaulted into top 3. Again, I still don't know if I should be calling though.

[blakheart 3]

I say call= Big hands aren't likely to push here- I say his range is Ak- all the way to A9, and all PP's. His range has to be larege becuase1. You just stole every pot since you got to his table2. He massively overbet the pot3. He insta pushedI discount the chance of AA, or Kk, those hands probably want one caller. People say you are probably in a coinflip- I say you are probably ahead of a weak ace or maybe in a coinflip at worse. AQ is good enough for me here, I say call.

[Smasharoo 0]

Fold. Nowhere near close. good luck.Again, I still don't know if I should be calling though.You shouldn't be. Regardless of $EV here, CALLING with AQ is really light. If you had raised more it would make more sense to call, but you didn't, and probably shoudln't have. Why? So you could fold when this happens. You're ahead of a few hands, crushed by a few and close to even money against most things he moves in with here. Yes, he might be weak, but he's often weak with 44 or something. You have too many chips and there isn't enough in the middle to call here.It might be the best hand you see before you bust, doesn't matter. Most of the time you're going to have better opportunities, and obviously when he has AA/AK/KK/QQ you can dodge bulletts baby!Seriously though, let it go.good luck.

[throwemaway 0]

It might be the best hand you see before you bust, doesn't matter. Most of the time you're going to have better opportunities, and obviously when he has AA/AK/KK/QQ you can dodge bulletts baby!good luck.

Wow Smash has jokes..didnt think he had it in him, except when hes telling someone they are a donkey..nice nice

[iggymcfly 0]

I really don't see 77-99 jamming here at a reasonably tight table. The risk/reward just isn't there. If they're stupid enough to risk 110,000 chips to win 10,000 let them. I really think the likely range is AK and TT-QQ, with KK and AQ playing this way about 1/3 of the time, and AA or 99 doing it maybe 1/5 of the time. If villian had even 20 or 30 thousand less chips, it might swing the decision, but I think in this spot, you have to fold.

[Rocketwadster 0]

I really don't see 77-99 jamming here at a reasonably tight table.

Is that not the perfect time to be jamming with those hands? low/medium pairs lose a lot of value near the end of the tourney where blinds are high and M's are low (meaning you don't want to see a lot of flops with them IMO - but if you do, you want to see all 5 cards I would think).

[krup24 0]

I fold this.I have to think we are either dominated or in a coin flip. I can't see us being dominant over many hands that make this play. Pick a better spot.

[mused01 0]

easy fold.down I don't see him pushing this with AJ or KQ, hands that you are a dominating favorite. the rest of his hand range fall under coinflips and hands that dominate you. frankly, there are just better spots to risk all your chips.

[Actuary 3]

dispite the hot streak I"ve been on, I still feel pain from my recent buble with AQ. CAlling the chipleaders push while the rest of us 3 were relatively close.Afterwards, it's pretty tough to rationalize.So, I would fold. Especially, you. you can outplay people.I need luck.

[Mashchit 0]

To quote Jesse May, I fold like a cheap suitcase.His range here could be anything and you're not tied to the hand. Find a better place to double up.

[HoosierAlum 0]

Ok, normally I would insta-fold here and wouldnt think twice about it. But lately Ive been talking alot with very successful online mtt players, and they have told me that Im not gambling enough late in tournaments. Is it really horrible to gamble here? Late in tourneys there isn't all that much room to "outplay" people. Also, don't forget the added value if I call and win and now have a top 3 stack. This would enable me to build a very large stack by bullying on the final table bubble.This is a spot where if I fold Im now below avg with blinds about to creep to to 3k 6k, leaving me pretty short. And for whoever said 77-99 isnt in his range...I called and he tabled 88.I want to post this link again:http://www.pocketfives.com/4460122F-0D1E-4...1605B17271.aspx

[strategy 4]

I want to post this link again:http://www.pocketfives.com/4460122F-0D1E-4...1605B17271.aspx

I don't particularly like the way ActionJeff and the rest of the pocketfives kids act, but I have to admit that they know their stuff.

[Mashchit 0]

Ok, normally I would insta-fold here and wouldnt think twice about it. But lately Ive been talking alot with very successful online mtt players, and they have told me that Im not gambling enough late in tournaments. Is it really horrible to gamble here? Late in tourneys there isn't all that much room to "outplay" people. Also, don't forget the added value if I call and win and now have a top 3 stack. This would enable me to build a very large stack by bullying on the final table bubble.This is a spot where if I fold Im now below avg with blinds about to creep to to 3k 6k, leaving me pretty short. And for whoever said 77-99 isnt in his range...I called and he tabled 88.I want to post this link again:http://www.pocketfives.com/4460122F-0D1E-4...1605B17271.aspx

By the sounds of it you're leagues ahead of me in mtt play, so all I'll say is that I'd get the successful players to specify the kind of gambles you should be taking. To me this seems like an unneccessary gamble, but that could well be wrong and I note your point about calling to get a top 3 stack and the possibilities that brings.Interesting link by the way and thanks for putting it up.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Top 3 with 22 people left to me is relatively meaningless at that stage. Sure, you can splash around a lot more and exert some pressure, but it will by no means guarantee anything. If the scenario was say ten remaining and going intot he final table with a top 3 chip stack, then perhaps I would agree with your logic there (but still wouldn't be calling).