Hey Mom/dad ... Want To Watch This Dvd About My 5th Grade Class?

[jeff_536 3]

When you wrote this, what did you think a good "I get it" to "I don't get it" ratio would be? When I make a reference like that, I am always pretty sure a few people will know what I'm talking about, but I always have these daydreams where Nate Silver and Clay Davenport jokes just start flying...One day I am going to make a Voros McCracken joke in public, and, this time, people will laugh.

Ron Mexico is Christina Karl.

[JoeyJoJo 18]

When you wrote this, what did you think a good "I get it" to "I don't get it" ratio would be? When I make a reference like that, I am always pretty sure a few people will know what I'm talking about, but I always have these daydreams where Nate Silver and Clay Davenport jokes just start flying...One day I am going to make a Voros McCracken joke in public, and, this time, people will laugh.

I figured the ratio would be something like: you:everyone else.There was a high probability that one poster whose name is "Moneyball" would get it, but an equally high probability that he would never see it.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I figured the ratio would be something like: you:everyone else.There was a high probability that one poster whose name is "Moneyball" would get it, but an equally high probability that he would never see it.

I have spent a disturbing amount of time thinking about Value Over Replacement Poster. I'm not sure if we've ever discussed it -- I devote most of my short-term and medium-term memory to stuff like, "Where did I put my keys?" and "What lie did I tell that girl in my accounting class last year when she caught me building a 3-page 'Ho Chart?'" -- but I am pretty sure I've mentioned it. Who epitomizes replacement level poster? Is my perspective all fucked up because I spend most of my time in a productive thread? (Replacement level in the Sick Thread is much, much higher than it would be in The Hideout; is there any doubt a thread-average poster in the Sick Thread would be an all-star level performer in The Hideout?) What should I be using as my poster base? The entirety of Off-Topic? only OT-General? How far back should I go, and how do I weight contributions over time? When predicting future performance, should I be regressing everybody to forum-average? What should I consider controllable skills, and what should I consider luck, variance, or environment? The first question is tough, but I've got some ideas. The big issue ends up being, how do we separate a poster's performance from his environment? If an average poster is surrounded by solid or excellent performers, he's going to have the ability to produce at a much higher level. The material he has to work with is just going to be significantly more bountiful, and he'll have opportunities he wouldn't otherwise have.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Ron Mexico is Christina Karl.

That's an apt analogy, and I am on board.

[jeff_536 3]

I have spent a disturbing amount of time thinking about Value Over Replacement Poster. I'm not sure if we've ever discussed it -- I devote most of my short-term and medium-term memory to stuff like, "Where did I put my keys?" and "What lie did I tell that girl in my accounting class last year when she caught me building a 3-page 'Ho Chart?'" -- but I am pretty sure I've mentioned it. Who epitomizes replacement level poster? Is my perspective all fucked up because I spend most of my time in a productive thread? (Replacement level in the Sick Thread is much, much higher than it would be in The Hideout; is there any doubt a thread-average poster in the Sick Thread would be an all-star level performer in The Hideout?) What should I be using as my poster base? The entirety of Off-Topic? only OT-General? How far back should I go, and how do I weight contributions over time? When predicting future performance, should I be regressing everybody to forum-average? What should I consider controllable skills, and what should I consider luck, variance, or environment? The first question is tough, but I've got some ideas. The big issue ends up being, how do we separate a poster's performance from his environment? If an average poster is surrounded by solid or excellent performers, he's going to have the ability to produce at a much higher level. The material he has to work with is just going to be significantly more bountiful, and he'll have opportunities he wouldn't otherwise have.

So you're going to have to first find a forum equivalent of DIPS...Thread-Independent Posting Stats. TIPS it is.

[El Guapo 8]

I have spent a disturbing amount of time thinking about Value Over Replacement Poster. I'm not sure if we've ever discussed it -- I devote most of my short-term and medium-term memory to stuff like, "Where did I put my keys?" and "What lie did I tell that girl in my accounting class last year when she caught me building a 3-page 'Ho Chart?'" -- but I am pretty sure I've mentioned it. Who epitomizes replacement level poster? Is my perspective all fucked up because I spend most of my time in a productive thread? (Replacement level in the Sick Thread is much, much higher than it would be in The Hideout; is there any doubt a thread-average poster in the Sick Thread would be an all-star level performer in The Hideout?) What should I be using as my poster base? The entirety of Off-Topic? only OT-General? How far back should I go, and how do I weight contributions over time? When predicting future performance, should I be regressing everybody to forum-average? What should I consider controllable skills, and what should I consider luck, variance, or environment? The first question is tough, but I've got some ideas. The big issue ends up being, how do we separate a poster's performance from his environment? If an average poster is surrounded by solid or excellent performers, he's going to have the ability to produce at a much higher level. The material he has to work with is just going to be significantly more bountiful, and he'll have opportunities he wouldn't otherwise have.

I think this is the classic Jordan/Pippen question. We got to see Pippen on his own for a year and a half and he was still an All Star (minus the fit he threw when Kukoc got the last shot in that one playoff game). Except here we have a lot of posters that play both the Pippen and Jordan parts...I am going to have to think this through better.

[JoeyJoJo 18]

The first question is tough, but I've got some ideas. The big issue ends up being, how do we separate a poster's performance from his environment? If an average poster is surrounded by solid or excellent performers, he's going to have the ability to produce at a much higher level. The material he has to work with is just going to be significantly more bountiful, and he'll have opportunities he wouldn't otherwise have.

I tried to account for the super thread dilemma by establishing the parameters as being only posts in threads started today or later. (Note: how great is it that Rose started the first thread eligible for statistical analysis?) We can view the super threads as practice. (We’re talking ‘bout practice?) Some posters will be the typical practice player who can’t bring it when it counts.I would like to add some importance to threads over X posts. Maybe you get over three pages and that’s a playoff thread. The ability to shine in the playoffs should be viewed as more meaningful (even though the skill level of the poster doesn’t change, it still means more). I’d also like to see some conversion formulas for general poker posters coming to off topic. What’s the equivalent? Is that like a jump from double-A to the majors? Coming over from Japan? Straight from high school?If we were doing this from the beginning, is there any doubt that RodReynolds would have the highest rate stats? He’s Pedro Martinez to Ron Mexico’s Nolan Ryan.And apparently jeff7 is a stats guy too...

[JubilantLankyLad 1,957]

I tried to account for the super thread dilemma by establishing the parameters as being only posts in threads started today or later. (Note: how great is it that Rose started the first thread eligible for statistical analysis?) We can view the super threads as practice. (We’re talking ‘bout practice?) Some posters will be the typical practice player who can’t bring it when it counts.I would like to add some importance to threads over X posts. Maybe you get over three pages and that’s a playoff thread. The ability to shine in the playoffs should be viewed as more meaningful (even though the skill level of the poster doesn’t change, it still means more). I’d also like to see some conversion formulas for general poker posters coming to off topic. What’s the equivalent? Is that like a jump from double-A to the majors? Coming over from Japan? Straight from high school?If we were doing this from the beginning, is there any doubt that RodReynolds would have the highest rate stats? He’s Pedro Martinez to Ron Mexico’s Nolan Ryan.And apparently jeff7 is a stats guy too...

+1

[strategy 4]

+1

yep

[JoeyJoJo 18]

+1

yep

I've decided the regular season started with threads that began Monday, so these posts count.I also think there should be a category for posts that are informational and relevant even if they aren't funny. I figure a walk is probably the best fit.

[CaneBrain 95]

How did a thread about homemade porn accidentally being sent to 10 year olds devolve into a Bill James style discussion of posting humor?Was a naked teacher and traumatized children really not enough for you?

[El Guapo 8]

How did a thread about homemade porn accidentally being sent to 10 year olds devolve into a Bill James style discussion of posting humor?Was a naked teacher and traumatized children really not enough for you?

Joey, are we going to track foul tips?

[CaneBrain 95]

Joey, are we going to track foul tips?

I deserve a fielder's choice at the very least.

[Sal Paradise 57]

baseball sucks.

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

Ron Mexico is Christina Karl.

No idea who that is or what it means, but I'm fine with being a woman. I'll finally get laid

If we were doing this from the beginning, is there any doubt that RodReynolds would have the highest rate stats? He’s Pedro Martinez to Ron Mexico’s Nolan Ryan.

7 no hitters and a 7 knuckle punches to Robin Ventura's noggin. I'm all in.

[Tactical Bear 3]

(Note: how great is it that Rose started the first thread eligible for statistical analysis?) We can view the super threads as practice. (We're talking 'bout practice?) Some posters will be the typical practice player who can't bring it when it counts.I would like to add some importance to threads over X posts. Maybe you get over three pages and that's a playoff thread. The ability to shine in the playoffs should be viewed as more meaningful (even though the skill level of the poster doesn't change, it still means more). I'd also like to see some conversion formulas for general poker posters coming to off topic. What's the equivalent? Is that like a jump from double-A to the majors? Coming over from Japan? Straight from high school?If we were doing this from the beginning, is there any doubt that RodReynolds would have the highest rate stats? He's Pedro Martinez to Ron Mexico's Nolan Ryan.And apparently jeff7 is a stats guy too...

I'm glad you mentioned playoffs. One of my initial thoughts was finding a way to work something like Leverage Index into the mix. It'd be nice to know whether certain posters turn it on when it matters (perhaps in longer threads, oft-viewed threads, or threads that become intense or fast-paced), and, unlike in baseball, it's possible that certain posters are clutch; that is, they perform better when their posts are most critical (or, more likely, they get lazy when things are decidedly uncritical). Now, it might be tough to quantify, and maybe simplifying things with practice/regular season/playoffs is best, but there is probably a quick and dirty way to determine the leverage of a thread. (Total Views/Total Posts? Views+Posts/Unique Posters? Total Views/day? I've got a few ideas, but I'd have to do the maths to see if they pass the smell test.) As far as conversion goes: ugh. I'd say General is anywhere between Short Season Rookie League and High A ball; Off-Topic is like AA and AAA, and the really good threads -- the ones where the big dogs eat, and not just the classic Super Threads -- is the majors. The good posters eventually make their way to Off Topic, and the great ones spend a lot of time posting high-quality content in threads with other great posters. In those threads, the replacement level scrubs are easily identifiable. The real move is to award managerial positions to 10 posters, have a draft, and form a Strat-o-Matic league...Yah, RodReynolds' rate stats are disgusting. Just like with Pedro, people just don't talk about it enough. I am not sure if people fully understand how effing sweet he is. Even if they think they do, they probably don't. Man, I would pay top dollar for a Rod Reynolds rookie card. The only other poster who has the same aura -- that high-production over a short period feel -- is probably you (Joey). Not around a lot, but when he shows up, he just blasts replacement level out of the water. It's like getting a third of a season of Bonds: still probably MVP.I, on the other hand, am Fred McGriff or something. "Thank God he didn't make it to 500HR, because he would have broken the system." No, that's not right. McGriff was pretty good. I'm Jack Morris. "You are an idiot and this is not a mustache competition or anything."

I've decided the regular season started with threads that began Monday, so these posts count.I also think there should be a category for posts that are informational and relevant even if they aren't funny. I figure a walk is probably the best fit.

Funny posts are hits, and posts that are "I dunno, not so much funny as interesting, like, I wanna keep reading, you know?" are walks. Not nearly as sexy, but just as valuable as a solid one-liner up the middle.

baseball sucks.

Sac bunt.

[brvheart 1,752]

How did a thread about homemade porn accidentally being sent to 10 year olds devolve into a Bill James style discussion of posting humor?Was a naked teacher and traumatized children really not enough for you?

I'll tell you one thing... this f****ng smilie needs to count as a wild pitch or something.

[brvheart 1,752]

I'm glad you mentioned playoffs. One of my initial thoughts was finding a way to work something like Leverage Index into the mix. It'd be nice to know whether certain posters turn it on when it matters (perhaps in longer threads, oft-viewed threads, or threads that become intense or fast-paced), and, unlike in baseball, it's possible that certain posters are clutch; that is, they perform better when their posts are most critical (or, more likely, they get lazy when things are decidedly uncritical). Now, it might be tough to quantify, and maybe simplifying things with practice/regular season/playoffs is best, but there is probably a quick and dirty way to determine the leverage of a thread. (Total Views/Total Posts? Views+Posts/Unique Posters? Total Views/day? I've got a few ideas, but I'd have to do the maths to see if they pass the smell test.) As far as conversion goes: ugh. I'd say General is anywhere between Short Season Rookie League and High A ball; Off-Topic is like AA and AAA, and the really good threads -- the ones where the big dogs eat, and not just the classic Super Threads -- is the majors. The good posters eventually make their way to Off Topic, and the great ones spend a lot of time posting high-quality content in threads with other great posters. In those threads, the replacement level scrubs are easily identifiable. The real move is to award managerial positions to 10 posters, have a draft, and form a Strat-o-Matic league...Yah, RodReynolds' rate stats are disgusting. Just like with Pedro, people just don't talk about it enough. I am not sure if people fully understand how effing sweet he is. Even if they think they do, they probably don't. Man, I would pay top dollar for a Rod Reynolds rookie card. The only other poster who has the same aura -- that high-production over a short period feel -- is probably you (Joey). Not around a lot, but when he shows up, he just blasts replacement level out of the water. It's like getting a third of a season of Bonds: still probably MVP.I, on the other hand, am Fred McGriff or something. "Thank God he didn't make it to 500HR, because he would have broken the system." No, that's not right. McGriff was pretty good. I'm Jack Morris. "You are an idiot and this is not a mustache competition or anything."Funny posts are hits, and posts that are "I dunno, not so much funny as interesting, like, I wanna keep reading, you know?" are walks. Not nearly as sexy, but just as valuable as a solid one-liner up the middle.Sac bunt.

There can't be anyone happier that Joey's back than Wang.

[Mercury69 3]

Joey, are we going to track foul tips?

Even Ron Mexico says your tip is foul. Don't you ever wash that thang?

[Tactical Bear 3]

No idea who that is or what it means, but I'm fine with being a woman. I'll finally get laid

She was "Chris Kahrl" until a few years ago...

There can't be anyone happier that Joey's back than Wang.

Yeah, I am supposed to be in class, but instead I am having an earnest discussion about creating baseball alter-egos (for people I have never met), developing a model for LI, and trying to figure out the proper conversion analogies. I'm pretty happy right now. Pretty pleased with myself.

[CaneBrain 95]

I'll tell you one thing... this f****ng smilie needs to count as a wild pitch or something.

When I think about naked teachers and traumatized children, I smile. I am set in my ways like that.Also, I think that the poster is the batter, so pitching stats like wild pitches don't come into play. If you hate the smiley face, you could deem it a reverse K (struck out looking) or you could call it a HBP (because the smiley face makes you want to throw stuff at me).

[uncooper 1]

A replacement poster should be defined as anyone who posts regularly in Gen Po, or anyone who posts at all in OT-Ent.Thread views should also be factored in to the playoff status of a thread.From now on, under your avatar it will display your EqPosts instead of just the total number of posts, which is really more like At Bats.edit: OT-Rel is Coors Field.

[jeff_536 3]

There's a lot of quality work in OT-Ent. It's the Astrodome for OT's hitters.

[speedz99 145]

I am trying to think of which baseball player my humor-style most closely resembles. You got any ideas? My first instinct was Nick Adenhart.

Pedro Cerrano. Straight ball you hit it very much, but when ladies throw you a curve...I lost it. Third strike tipped into the catcher's mitt. At least I went down swinging.

[El Guapo 8]

Let talk about where people would bat in a lineup.Wang is your typical 3 - Hits for a good average, some power a little speed.Sal is your traditional 4 hitter, constantly comes in and cleans off the bases.I'm a lead off guy, I get on base a lot, allow others to bring me home.I'm thinking Speedz in the 2 hole, Balloon Guy is a good 5. Hits for power, lots of big swings, doesn't always connect.I think we can all agree that SuitedAces21 is the Rob Deer of posters. Need to put some thought into 6-9 and a DH plus pinch hitters.