**official Mma Thread**

[king_tanner 84]

I was just going to ask you about Maynard. I think I'm going to take him also.I might do a fun parlay on the girls, I like all the favorites, but I'm not so sure about Pena in the main girls fight. I like Jessamyn and Raquel in the other definitely. I might throw in Holdsworth on the parlay also. I honestly can't see him losing. He fights at team alpha male and that whole team has been pretty hot lately. He doesn't seem like someone who would choke.

 

Edit.. I'm going to parlay Holdsworth and Maynard together, then all the girl favorites together. $100 each

[JubilantLankyLad 1,957]

$10 on Peggy Morgan @ +190. Phere is no actionable insight in girlfights unless you know their menstrual calendar.

Haha. Female professional athletes don't menstruate.

[NickCave 194]

Haha. Female professional athletes don't menstruate.

 

I'm not sure if you're kidding, but there's almost zero chance professional athletes menstruate during heavy training/competition, given how easy it is to manipulate cycles.

 

I had a few (9) beers after (during) work, and decided to drop a few dollars on some fights. Decided to straight fade Scram by taking Diaz +140 (I like dogs in general, and my bookie took mostly Maynard action, so he offered me a good price on Diaz).

 

Took Modaferi (sp?) and Morgan around the market price, because LOL girl dogs.

 

 

I feel like I'm going to drop a ****ing bomb on whomever the **** Anderson Silva is fighting. Chris "the all american" Weidman? That name is so ****ing gay, so taking him is going to be god damn painful. My local is going to take 100% Silva action, so I'll probably be able to take a huge chunk at +150 (or whatever the closer is) off him. He'll be trying to keep his exposure minimized, because he's a fag and still doesn't understand how being a bookie works.

[AmScray 355]

Diaz @ +140 from a live book is very decent.

Did he offer that or did you negotiate it?

 

I like Maynard overall but I don't think he's going to finish Diaz, Diaz is a danger on the mat, Maynard is by no means a slam dunk but I am absolutely convinced this price on Maynard is 25% of the people viewing Nick and Nate as one, amorphous fighter named Diaz. Nate ain't Nick. Also, Maynard 1-2 in his last 3 which per monkey-mma-math will impact the line and make him cheap. Fights like these, you aren't shocked if you lose. If Nate triangles him in the 2nd round, it's not like it would some huge surprise however I am (literally) betting that isn't going to happen.

 

I very well may be 'all in' on Silva. I've been scaling into him at basically even money since the lines opened. The 'near-fight' trickle-down is starting to occur. He's now in the -130 range, expect to see him pushing -200 prefight. If you can buy him locally at any + amount, you're very lucky. I'll probably wind up having 80% of my roll on the entire fight, which is a pretty significant amount of money (to me, not by balla standards) the byproduct of two consecutive winning years. The 20% I'm keeping out is in case Weidman does win and I have to write off 2014 as a rebuilding year.

[AmScray 355]

I was just going to ask you about Maynard. I think I'm going to take him also.

 

If I lose Maynard, it will because of this and I will never post a prefight pick again.

I swear to god.

[AmScray 355]

Peggy Morgan getting cheaper. Everyone loving Jessamyn.

Bought $10 worth of Peggy by Decision @ +375.

 

I never thought I'd sink so low as to be betting on womens mixed martial arts.

[AmScray 355]

$50 on Walt Harris @ +240

[AmScray 355]

$50 flushed.

HUGE props to Rosholt for surviving that first round bashing. That would've KO'd most other HWs. I'm guessing this guy has an iron chin.

Once he got him down in the third, I knew it was all over. I guess that's why the line had him where it had him. Crazy high level wrestling skills are what they are. There isn't much that can be done to overcome them.

[AmScray 355]

Peggy Morgan ate it and didn't look competitive.

 

So, -$70 in total so far, need to hit Maynard to get +$130 on the night, otherwise, -$350 on the night.

Haven't had two ($XXX) losing fight-nights in a row for a while.

[AmScray 355]

Gooseegg for me tonight, -$350. Meh.

Posting my prefight picks is bad luck. I will now start posting them in ciphered code, then post the results (along with the code key for verification) after the fight is over.

 

I have never, ever seen anyone remain out on their feet for as long as Maynard... Totally surreal to watch.

[king_tanner 84]

If you listen to the Diaz brothers without looking at the tv I could sweat that they both have Down syndrome

 

Maynard basically fights like old Chuck Liddell now, he throws these big haymakers but leaves his head unprotected every time he throws it. He needs to completely change his stand up game or retire. Aside from that he could have had his way with Diaz by taking him down.

 

 

[king_tanner 84]

I would even say swear and not sweat but FCP is not letting me edit posts, wtf

[AmScray 355]

Maynard basically fights like old Chuck Liddell now, he throws these big haymakers but leaves his head unprotected every time he throws it. He needs to completely change his stand up game or retire. Aside from that he could have had his way with Diaz by taking him down.

 

There's no accounting for a fighter 'getting caught' but it's particularly frustrating when an otherwise strong and reasonably intelligent fighter uses a terrible strategy and winds up losing. I think part of his deciding to stand and bang with Diaz is a common wrestlers fear of higher level BJJ. It was just a terrible decision.

 

There's also the whole 'Jon Jones ego' factor where a fighter engages his opponent at their specialty- strike with strikers, wrestle with wrestlers, grapple with grapplers- just to prove '**** you I'm better all around'. Jones does this basically every time knowing his sub-Saharan explosive athleticism will usually carry him through, but it doesn't always work. Standing and boxing with Gustaffson was an example of this and we all saw how that turned out. He said in postfight that it wasn't a good strategy.

 

Maynard not working *a lot* harder to get it against the wall or on the ground was a huge mistake. I still can't get over the whole 'out on his feet' thing though. I've never seen anyone that obviously out on their feet continually take shots like that and stay up for as long as he did.

[king_tanner 84]

Is this a case of getting caught though? If I remember correctly he got knocked out in his last fight in the same fashion, basically getting counterpunched because his head is completely open almost every time he throws a really hard punch. I was under the impression after this fight that he has major stand up defense leaks.

[AmScray 355]

This wasn't 'getting caught'.

It was fighting stupid from the word go.

 

'Getting caught' I can live with losing money on because that's how the game goes.

Losing because of dumb shit (for example, if you had Blanco last night) is just incredibly frustrating. Maynard deciding to stand and bang with Diaz was retarded.

[NickCave 194]

Diaz @ +140 from a live book is very decent.

Did he offer that or did you negotiate it?

 

I like Maynard overall but I don't think he's going to finish Diaz, Diaz is a danger on the mat, Maynard is by no means a slam dunk but I am absolutely convinced this price on Maynard is 25% of the people viewing Nick and Nate as one, amorphous fighter named Diaz. Nate ain't Nick. Also, Maynard 1-2 in his last 3 which per monkey-mma-math will impact the line and make him cheap. Fights like these, you aren't shocked if you lose. If Nate triangles him in the 2nd round, it's not like it would some huge surprise however I am (literally) betting that isn't going to happen.

 

I very well may be 'all in' on Silva. I've been scaling into him at basically even money since the lines opened. The 'near-fight' trickle-down is starting to occur. He's now in the -130 range, expect to see him pushing -200 prefight. If you can buy him locally at any + amount, you're very lucky. I'll probably wind up having 80% of my roll on the entire fight, which is a pretty significant amount of money (to me, not by balla standards) the byproduct of two consecutive winning years. The 20% I'm keeping out is in case Weidman does win and I have to write off 2014 as a rebuilding year.

 

I asked my local where he was on the fight, and he told me he was taking mostly Maynard action, at which point I suggested I was willing to bet Diaz at the right price. He was looking to lay it off anyway, and the easiest route was to sell it to me, especially because he was probably like 15 cents off book on the fight, anyway. When it comes to NFL and NBA sides, locals don't have much leeway. MLB (and NHL I guess) lines are a little more malleable.

 

But when you get even further onto the periphery, like with MMA and boxing, it's really easy to set lines your clients would be insane to bet into. Like, say Vegas has a fight at -155/+135. Local books might set it at -170/+135 if they expect to take favorite action, and then either let it ride with a huge edge, or just sell their action by betting the favorite at the "real" -155 price. Or, maybe somebody else comes along and is like, "Hey buddy, make me an offer," and it makes more sense to offer a trusted customer a chunk at +145. Everyone wins.

 

Also, I want to make it clear I will be fading Silva in that fight. I plan to bet King Goofball All-American Weidman.

[king_tanner 84]

Wow at first I thought Coressani was milking it a bit in that dq but he had a concussion and broke his nose in 5 places.

 

They need to do something about the language barrier. Blanco looked like he didn't speak any English and thought he won the fight. How can they listen to the ref if the don't know what he is saying? There needs to be some test before the fight that shows that foreign fighters know the rules and know what the ref is saying. If they can't pass it they shouldn't be able to fight here.

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

The rules are the rules. Know them before you get in the ring/octagon/field/court

[AmScray 355]

Also, I want to make it clear I will be fading Silva in that fight. I plan to bet King Goofball All-American Weidman.

 

Good luck with that.

 

Also opening a medium position on Silva by Decision.

Weidman is in my top 3 favorite fighters so at least there's an emotional hedge if he wins.

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

Decision? I don't think he wins a decision. Weidman has too much wrestling for that. Then again, who knows? It's why I don't bet

[AmScray 355]

He's going to Demian Maia him absent the bullshit. Just points.

I wish there was a prop that somehow allowed me to bet on the precise strategic complexion of the fight, I'd open a position on that, too. That was his gameplan with Weidman but he wound up eating his own bullshit.

That won't happen again.

 

It's entirely possible that he's finally entered a physical (and potentially mental) state of terminal decline as a fighter and nobody fully comprehends it yet (including him). He's at the right age. That's the biggest risk here; he blows off Sun Tzu and engages the enemy without first fully knowing himself. I'm betting that even a 38 year old Anderson Silva with determination and something to prove cannot be beaten by anyone else on earth.

 

Fade away.

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

Good logical thinking. I still don't think he learned anything and pointing his way to victory won't prove he's the best. He seems to have a huge ego which may play into, not the game plan, but execution of said game plan

[AmScray 355]

He for goddamn sure fought stupid (legendarily stupid) in his last fight.

One would hope he would learn from that, but it's not a guarantee.

I'm guessing actually losing the belt may be enough to insure against that but who knows.

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

I have no tit bets on this one and I enjoy reading your stuff, so I'm hoping you win some money. I rarely wrap myself in the flag. I just like great fights and great fighters. I hate blind loyalty and that prevents me from just going American fighters, a la the Brazilians.

 

 

[king_tanner 84]

If Shogun loses on Friday he is pretty much done, right? Te-Huna seems like a pretty big step down in competition. I really home Mark Hunt wins. He is a cooler Aussie version of Big Country.