Zach6668 513 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 How is this thread still going?Everyone knows it's a stupid hypothetical question.Actually, here's a better question.If you guys aren't willing to take a +EV decision that this close, WTF are you waiting for?80%? What is your cutoff point? Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 10, 2006 Share Posted October 10, 2006 How is this thread still going?If you guys aren't willing to take a +EV decision that this close, WTF are you waiting for?80%? What is your cutoff point?I'm castrating you.And shoving your one ball down your throatMy cutoff... likely 99.92% Link to post Share on other sites
Abbaddabba 0 Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 The necessary percentage depends a lot on what you expect to get out of poker in your lifetime.Both in terms of money and personal enjoyment.It's impossible to measure with a number.But for a pot that small, it's going to have to be damn near close to 100% for me personally. If you expect to be a micro limit "grinder" the rest of your life, do yourself a favor and call hoping to lose. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 11, 2006 Share Posted October 11, 2006 If you expect to be a micro limit "grinder" the rest of your life, do yourself a favor and call hoping to lose.now that's an answer I can get down with Link to post Share on other sites
iggymcfly 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 The stupid thing about this is that it's a ridiculous scenario. It's like saying what if your wife will leave you if ever pose nude in a magazine so you go to pose for a bondage magazine, but then once tied up and gagged, you decide that the risk is too great that your wife will see it. A knife is nearby. Should you cut a testicle off to get free or not?The fact is that your BR is always replenishible at some point and if it's not, then there's no reason to ever sit in a 20/40 NL game. If your so scared about risk that you'd fold with such a clear advantage, then how the hell did you get in the game in the first place? Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 The stupid thing about this is that it's a ridiculous scenario.********. If your so scared about risk that you'd fold with such a clear advantage, then how the hell did you get in the game in the first place?true, its silly scenarioBut we have brainsSo we can answer questions under unnatural confines, yes?No?doesn't appear so Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Actuary,Let this thread die. We all get your point. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Actuary,Let this thread die. We all get your point.iggy bumped it.see times?then u bumped it. Link to post Share on other sites
BudBundy 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 I need to ask a question about odds but i didn't want to open a new thread so instead i am gonna hijack this one.I have A A 7 6 Board: A 7 5 3 rainbow. 17 dollars in the pot.I bet 10.Villain Re-pots and goes all in for 27 dollars.I have to call 17 dollars to win 54 dollars pot.I have 9 outs to beat a straight and 3 outs for a chop.I am gonna hit %25 of the time and only getting 3-1 from the pot.Now it seems like i don't have the odds to call but i am pretty sure that my logic or my math or both are wrong and/or incomplete.Please enlighten me.(Of course i called.I just want to know the right play) Link to post Share on other sites
JMoney2681 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 I need to ask a question about odds but i didn't want to open a new thread so instead i am gonna hijack this one.I have A A 7 6 Board: A 7 5 3 rainbow. 17 dollars in the pot.I bet 10.Villain Re-pots and goes all in for 27 dollars.I have to call 17 dollars to win 54 dollars pot.I have 9 outs to beat a straight and 3 outs for a chop.I am gonna hit %25 of the time and only getting 3-1 from the pot.Now it seems like i don't have the odds to call but i am pretty sure that my logic or my math or both are wrong and/or incomplete.Please enlighten me.(Of course i called.I just want to know the right play)3 to 1 means you win 25% of the time, 1 in 4. 1 in 4=3:1. Call. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 What do you want verified?3:1 pot odds is eve for to a 25% chance to winHowever, since you are splitting with some of those outs, then it's not 3:1And since he doesn't always have a Straight, it's not always 25%.Villain also may have 4,6,8,xFor my own sake, I'm going to give Villain 6,4,x,x and try to figure the probability of you catching any boat or the 4.******************************************** Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 If villian has 4,6,x,xthere are 42 unknown carswe boat/quad with 9 cards, 21%we straight with 3 cards, 7%so 0.21 * 71 + 0.07 * 71/2 = 17.395 ( 17.75 when not rounding the %'s)vs folding and keep the 17 if our read right and he does not have the 8Certainly worth the call given he may not have the nuts Link to post Share on other sites
BudBundy 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Then i made the right odds for myself to call right?What if i check turn and he pots for 18 dollars.I have to call 18 dollars for a 35 dollars pot. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Then i made the right odds for myself to call right?What if i check turn and he pots for 18 dollars.I have to call 18 dollars for a 35 dollars pot. IF he has 6,4,xxYou make a bad play if you don't check fold.With your lead 10 call 17, Win 17.75... you actually lose 27 - 17.75 = 9.25, vs folding.With the c/c you win 13.25 of a $53 pot and paid $18 to do it, for a 4.65 loss.All depends on the read and getting value from other hands he might have vs saving money vs the nutsI"m not a good Omaha strategy guy.Sluggo is. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 Then i made the right odds for myself to call right?What if i check turn and he pots for 18 dollars.I have to call 18 dollars for a 35 dollars pot.if you won't be all-in, implied odds are nicely in your favour in this situation. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 if you won't be all-in, implied odds are nicely in your favour in this situation.yeah, I forgot we can bet on river:PAs long as he'd call a river value bet on a paired board.And subtract the times he pots it when the 4 comes..and he has an 8, or you have to fold.But yeah , c/c maybe be better?Then again we lose value vs non-nut hands with c/c and give free cards. Link to post Share on other sites
BudBundy 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 He has 27 dollars and i have around 60 on turn.never thought of check call here.I need to think/hear some opinions about it. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 reads and info on prior betting round and the order the cards came would help...if I knew how to play correctly. Link to post Share on other sites
BudBundy 0 Posted October 12, 2006 Share Posted October 12, 2006 I haven't played him much no real reads.I raised preflop.Not pot just raise a bit.I Pot flop.Everyone folds except him.I can't imagine anyone would call with a set or two pairs there seeing me raising preflop and potting an ace high flop.He has to have a straight draw on that flop.******************We are gonna check and call a pot here if he does pot right?We assume he has the straight.I don't see him checking with the nuts on turn and giving us a free card.So he pots for 17 dollars leaving 10 dollars for him.If the board doesn't pair am i folding to a 10 dollar bet for a 61 dollars pot?If the board pairs is he calling my 10 dollar bet?Not very often.So we check/call turn.If we have the best hand on river we win 10 dollars less.And if he has the winning hand we lose the same amount as pushing turn.If he doesn't have the straight on turn then checking is out of question anyway.That's the best i could think of.Hope to hear more opinions. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Bud, then c/f turn.If 100% he has the straight and 100% he doesn't call a paired board, and we are calling $10 if we miss, it's an easy fold.you "have to" adjust some probability of him calling a paired board and/or not havingg the straight to consider playing anymore.that Im sure of.The adjusting those probabilities, not so much.But you aren't catching enough to win $35 for $18, or $44 for $27.It would be best to get it all in on turn you are calling a missed river anyways and assume he never cals a paired boardbut folding best now with your asumptions Link to post Share on other sites
SpiderGuard 0 Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 I think we call. We can always put more money in the bankroll, right? Link to post Share on other sites
BudBundy 0 Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Bud, then c/f turn.If 100% he has the straight and 100% he doesn't call a paired board, and we are calling $10 if we miss, it's an easy fold.you "have to" adjust some probability of him calling a paired board and/or not havingg the straight to consider playing anymore.that Im sure of.The adjusting those probabilities, not so much.But you aren't catching enough to win $35 for $18, or $44 for $27.It would be best to get it all in on turn you are calling a missed river anyways and assume he never cals a paired boardbut folding best now with your asumptionsThat's what i was afraid of to hear. Link to post Share on other sites
clipped 0 Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Risk of ruin obviously applies most commonly in freeze-out tourneys and sngs. If you are owning your opponents then it is wise to avoid playing big coin tosses - like chasing a str. flush draw on the flop as in the example, or taking AK and going all in preflop against an underpair. Why risk busting when you can win the tourney without hardly ever going to showdown? I am building my bankroll primarily through sngs and I find that I have the most consistent success when I avoid races, unless I have a really nice edge. I am mentioning this only because I have found success with a lot of preflop laydowns that may seem stupid, because they give up +EV. (in freeze outs mind you...) I do this only, however, when I feel I have gotten inside the heads of my opponents. In that case, I find that gambling i.e. racing with them is the worst thing I can do. If I can succeed in getting inside their head, racing is the only way they can beat me - why play into their hand, as the saying goes.On the subject of getting inside opponents' heads, I'm sure you all already know this, but I find the absolute best +EV strategy in NL holdem is to put my opponents on tilt. Yeah, yeah, obvious I know. But people often don't think of using their betting patterns, and close observation of their opponents' reactions, to put those opponents on tilt. Table talk is not the only way... I really recommend playing around with this, trying to figure out what infuriates your opponent, then betting like that... Again, I'm sure this is obvious to all, but I have found that, over the years, the tilting opponents/getting inside their heads/annoying your opponents strategies are unbelievably effective. Sorry for posting off topic... I read this forum and never post, so forgive me for wandering off the beaten track. Link to post Share on other sites
Fade2241 0 Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 the flop comes J 10 2 . you bet 120. he raises to 300. you raise to 900 and he shoves all in.Why? You are sitting with the LAST of your roll! You don’t raise here unless you are willing to get it all in on the flop. You are in no position to do that. Just call his raise and try to hit before getting the rest of your money in. Anyways, as it stands it’s an insta-fold and walk. Swallow your pride and step down to a game you’ll be at least somewhat properly rolled in. I wouldn’t sit down in this game with that roll anyways. I am not straight gambling with the last of my poker money, no sir – not if I want to be a pro someday, anyways. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted October 13, 2006 Share Posted October 13, 2006 Anyways, as it stands it’s an insta-fold and walk.sleep with me Link to post Share on other sites
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