Hand Vs Isaac Haxton

[rouliroul 0]

I think shoving is much more than slightly +EV. If there were no antes, I'd think we were too deep, but there's enough money in the pot that I feel fine shoving this much in to take it down.If your argument is that 3betting to 10k with this hand is better for our overall game, and for the times we want to 3bet bluff, I'd tend to agree. I would be surprised if it's much better with our specific hand, especially because the value of stack preservation in tourneys. If Daniel started the hand with a massive stack, I'd like 3betting smaller much much more.All that said, I think 3betting smaller is a perfectly good option. My guess is it's barely worse than shoving, and I prefer it to calling against a tough player.Actually, one major benefit to 3betting smaller is that we get the money in against all pairs, whereas when we shove, we can expect him to fold most worse pairs, I think. Still though, small pairs are such a small part of his range that I still prefer shoving to 3betting small and giving a tough player very good pot odds to call and gamble with my medium strength hand.

I get what you're saying about preserving our stack, although I think you're overvaluing our edge in future spots, this being a 25k high roller. By shoving, we lose the value of allowing him to 4bet bluff, and we make ourselves easier to play against from the blinds. This will actually encourage him to open wider vs our blinds, which will result in slightly less future profitable situations. I don't believe it's worth it just to avoid the added variance of sometimes playing out of position with 88. We only have a pot sized bet behind if he calls, so it's not a terrible spot to be in even vs Ike. I'd agree with a shove in that spot vs him if we were playing the WSOP Main Event with other players at the table being unknowns.

[zimmer4141 0]

I think with Daniel's image, shoving > 3b/calling >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> flatting pre.Playing a pot with 88, 30bb deep, OOP against Ike Haxton, you just have no chance to play that postflop profitably. I don't think Daniel 3-bets light enough to get Ike to 4b jam light in this spot.Flatting pre is absolutely suicidal. His range is so wide and undefined, and he can just abuse you when you flat in this spot. You're not deep enough to flat for set equity and you can't outrun the math of being 30bb deep. Shove pre, print Sklansky Bucks, sigh when he has higher pairs, win races against AQ/AK, and win the pot right there like 90% of the time.Edit: The biggest problem with as played is that the information he gains by seeing the flop is way more valuable than the information you gain. You have no idea what his range is when you c/r/call the flop. However, he probably has a pretty damn good idea if he's ahead or behind. This allows him to play perfectly while you are purely guessing as to his range.

[Balloon guy 158]

Isn't this a re-buy tourny?Could DN be playing passive pre-flop knowing Isaac is C-betting to get it all in unless the board is really bad?More risk/reward play?

[TrueAce13 18]

Nice trap!

[looshle 6]

I think the best part of Phil's post is talking about Ike's opening range. People are too quick to say "loose opener, late position, jam." Jamming here is going to be the best play IMO but being aware of what factors are going to make someone open more or less hands will make a more marginal spot a clear cut decision.

[BigDMcGee 3,353]

hey phil since we have your ear.. could you comment on an issue that has been raging on the forums. Should DN shave his head and just embrace his balding, or keep fighting that futile fight against time?

[UnluKKy 0]

a poker forum with Phil Galfond and Daniel Negreanu analyzing hands? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?this information is PURE GOLDPLEASE do more of this.

[keith crime 8]

If I was in this hand and did this Ike would have KK with the King of Diamonds even thought the King of Diamonds was already on the board

[DanielNegreanu 141]

Hey Daniel,Just registered today when I saw this hand. Looking forward to checking out the forums. Sorry in advance - I tend to talk too much when it comes to strategy, so this probably will end up longer than it needs to be. Here are my opinions-Preflop:This seems somewhat close between calling and shoving, but I would rather shove. Looks like effective stacks were around 39k to start the hand. This is important, as is who covers whom and by how much.Assuming this is 9 handed, there's 6500 in the pot before calling his raise. You're a little bit deeper than I generally like to shove (though I think many of these hot-shot young kid tourney pros would disagree), but I think this is a good spot for it. Ike will be opening very very wide here, especially if he perceives the button and sb as weaker/tighter players. Did he? He'd open less frequently if there were a tough player on the button or in the sb with between 15 and 25k. Was there? His stack matters too, but not as much for how often he opens. Yes, I think he was opening very wide here but shoving felt like an excessive play based on stack sizes, so I'd either have to 3bet then call, or flat. In retrospect I think that's better line against tougher players who play well post flop, but versus weak to average players I'd never consider making that play and getting it in vs a bigger pair or two overs. Just "not my style" as I feel comfortable playing flops against most people, even OOP, but Ike is probably the wrong guy to do that against.I wouldn't be shocked to see him open 100% in this spot, given the right players and stacks involved. I would be shocked if he opened less than 50% of hands, unless there were a very active short stack behind him.Anyways, I didn't run the math, but I'm positive it would show shoving to be very +EV (which means much better than folding). I'd be happy to run through it, by the way, if anyone would like. That's not the whole story, since calling is certainly better than folding too.Analyzing the value of a call is hard. I don't have a method to get an accurate estimate (I haven't tried very hard, since it matters very little in cash games). Calling 88 against Ike's wide range with all the money already in the pot is clearly +EV (compared to folding). I'm just guessing it's less +EV than shoving.Ike is extremely smart and tough, which is even worse for you than extremely smart and less tough, since that type of player would let you get to showdown more easily. You're out of position- regardless of where you rate your postflop skill level vs. Ike's, as long as it's somewhere in the ballpark, you have to agree that position is powerful enough to ensure that he'll have a "postflop advantage" - another thing difficult to assign real $ value to.You have the kind of hand that rarely flops something that you want to get all-in with against his value range, and often flops something that you'd like to take to showdown cheaply, or perhaps to protectAgainst a weak player, I would always call. They'd often let you get to showdown cheaply, and you can out-read and out-manouver them, generating lots of extra EV. (A weaker player would also often have a tighter preflop range, making a shove preflop less profitable)One final consideration: If we somehow knew that the EV of calling and the EV of shoving were the same (in terms of chips), it would still be better to shove. Assuming you don't have 4x his stack or more (in which case you can ignore this), there is value in preserving your tournament life, or the majority of your stack. Our EV comes in different ways, depending on if we call or shove.-If we shove, the overwhelming majority of the time, we pick up 6500 chips. A very small % of the time, we get all in with maybe slightly over 40% equity on average. -If we call, we are much more likely to get stacks in, or to get a sizable part of our stack in before folding or before he folds. This (counterintuitively to some) increases our variance compared to shoving preflop, which is especially bad in tournaments.I think it was Sklansky (your fave) that showed that the value of each chip you gain in a tournament is less than the value of each chip you lose... or something like that. Point being, it's important to minimize variance, and to avoid coinflips for your stack or large parts of it... even more important if you have a decent skill advantage over the field.*It's also an option to 3bet to a smaller amount than all-in. This makes you and your ranges tougher, but I think works out poorly given tournament life considerations. I'm not sure how often Ike calls, or if he'd only shove or fold. I think it makes more sense, and is much easier, to shove hands like 88, A5s, and AQo and to 3bet smaller with air and hands like JJ+.Flop:I love the way you played the flop, and it's something I don't do enough of in tournaments. My instinctive reaction is to call and figure it out later, but I think your play is so much better. I'm not sure if it's for the same reasons I like it or not (or if it was based on some very cool reads), but I'd rather hear your thought process than get into mine.Nice hand.-Phil

My thinking on the flop went something like this: Ike is good. I can never fold here obviously, but check calling puts me in a lot of bad spots, AND allows him to see a free turn and river if he chooses too. If he has a hand like Qc 9d for example, he has a ton of equity against my hand, and will bet this flop some percentage of the time. I'd be lying if I said I knew how often, I really am not sure if he bets here very often or not. If I check-raise this flop, I think I actually get him to at least consider folding some hands that contain an overcard and a better flush draw. Also if he has a hand like KT no diamond, he has to consider folding that too. He can never be happy about getting it in with a hand like that. My hand is crushed by only a couple hands: a flopped flush and a King with a higher diamond. Considering how wide Ike should bet this flop, I'd simply chalk that up to a "cooler." I'm either in coinflips against a hand like Ad Qh, or I have a draw against hands like AK with no diamond. Even against a set I have decent equity. Obviously once I decide to check raise him, I cannot fold. However, this opens up other future opportunities for me. Lets say I min-checkraised him on this flop with complete air, 78 of spades? He folds everything except a King or better, or a big diamond. When I check-raise he has to assume he has no fold equity. My check-raise looks very strong, which is why I think you should do it with complete air sometimes. Ike will never move in there without either a King or a diamond draw. Almost no thinking player ever would, so rather than risk a bluff shove, there is no need with hands I feel have zero equity... Similar thinking to the hand I bluffed Timex in the super high roller. Did you see that QT of hearts bluff? I called a 5 bet OOP then check raised a 9 5 4 flop risking 207k leaving myself 350k? One of those spots where my opponent can't possible see any fold equity, and if he does shove, I don't think I ever have more than 5% equity against his range. Really appreciate your thoughts and agree that against Ike I should actually be more aggressive pre-flop, having said that, I felt like I had a decent read on the table and didn't want to get it in against him pre-flop because I figured he would call me with all pairs that have me beat, as well as AJ+

[Adam Junglen 0]

Ike is very good post flop and 88 is tough to play out of position with these stack sizes (and especially with 1/6th bb ante)...I didn't want to post "move in pre" because I feel like I tell you to do that every hand (but if phil galfond says to move in pre, I'm all about it..). I'd probably 3-bet with intention of calling if I didn't move in pre.agree post flop is a spot where you'll be good more often than most people think, esp vs ike who's shoving wheel draws, pairs worse than 8's and ace highs. on K 42, Q 54, etc

[DanielNegreanu 141]

Oh, and btw he had Ah Kh. Turn blank river 8! Woot :-)

[DanielNegreanu 141]

I'm not liking this at all. If you're going to take this approach on a flop like this why not just shove pre-flop when you have real fold equity? You're dominated by any K with a diamond kicker better than an 8, a huge dog to any two diamonds higher than an 8, a significant dog to any flush, and against any KX you're a slight (8 or under) to huge dog (8 or better) to any non-diamond kicker. Again post flop if you're taking this stand why not just shove the flop out of position? Again with fold equity. Anyway I would never in a million years play this hand the way you did. I probably shove pre-flop to the cut off raise if he's aggressive and hope for a fold or a coin flip. Of course I have almost no real poker accomplishments whatsoever - so on that note I'm waiting to hear your explanation.

All the hands you mention Ike having that crush me represent less than 5% of his range in that spot when he bets. He needs a FLUSH or a King WITH a diamond. That is VERY unlikely. I do "ok" against every other hand he has since when I'm beat I'll have 11 outs likely which doesn't suck, and when he is drawing, we'll be flipping.

[charder30 0]

flop is whatever, could either way but I think just calling preflop is a mistake. I would 3 bet calll, shove, call in that order.

[Holdenper 0]

Are you donkbetting in this spot (vs Ike, and these stacksizes) at all? Or either c/c or CR?Btw this topic is pure gold:)Thanks Daniel for the insight! I would never consider CR with air, and in appearance without FE, but there are definitely some good spots for that:)

[zimmer4141 0]

I really don't get the logic that check/calling flop puts you in a lot of bad spots but calling pre is optimal. Plays seem pretty comparable in that they both leave you with awful options.You allow Ike to play this hand perfectly. If he has nothing, he now shuts down and loses a pf raise and a c-bet which I'm sure he is prepared to do a ton through the course of a tourney. If he wants to get it in, he's either flipping or has you crushed, and his get it in range prob has 60-65% equity vs. your hand.

[no not baxter 0]

flop is whatever, could either way but I think just calling preflop is a mistake. I would 3 bet calll, shove, call in that order.

CHARDER30 OG FCPER!!!disagree that flop is whatever, just typed up something long but accidentally deleted it :/But basically, I think that raise calling flop has a lot of merit because he is raising so ridiculously wide preflop, it is very rare that we are going to get it in crushed when we check raise call. Raising lets us take the pot down a lot right away and let's us win stacks versus his Kx hands we beat when turn/river is a diamond, and lets us win stacks versus his diamond draws that brick. Calling lets ike play turns and rivers absurdly well verus our hand on this boardcalling, 3b/f, 3b/c, jam all +ev preflop of course, but id imagine 3b/c >>>>>>>>>>>>>jam >>>>>>>>>>>>>rest

[fivechips 0]

All the hands you mention Ike having that crush me represent less than 5% of his range in that spot when he bets. He needs a FLUSH or a King WITH a diamond. That is VERY unlikely. I do "ok" against every other hand he has since when I'm beat I'll have 11 outs likely which doesn't suck, and when he is drawing, we'll be flipping.

Are you putting these hands that dominate you at 5% because he bets on the flop to your check? If so how do you arrive at that %? The way I would look at it - of course he can have a pretty wide range with a cut-off bet pre-flop. But I would think he would bet any K diamond kicker here after the flop and check any hand that at least does not contain a king or a high to medium diamond. It's a terrible spot (in my opinion) to continuation bet without at least a king or a diamond. It opens up a check raise and could put him in a tough spot if he's weak. So my post-flop read on a check/bet would be strong hand (at least a King) or semi-bluffish (high/medium diamond) continuation bet. Of course I don't even know who we are talking about so your read and experience on his play is probably more effective here.Anyway - thanks for the response. It is great that we are able to have you here to answer questions.

[leer 3]

ok, i see you had pocket 8's one being a diamond. thus you had a flush draw. on the flop. being that 3 diamonds flopped.im assuming he had Pocket kings. flopping a set.now, im thinking, you hit a 4th diamond on the river giving you a flush. and the board did not pair.now as to why you called. i can only assume you put him on a pocket pair. not thinking he had kings. possibly AA or QQ. you saw him representing a flush. but something tells me that story did not add up. so you thought a call to his all in was good.

[gdp13 0]

Key hand I played today in the 25k high roller. I'll give you the details, you can discuss, then I'll chime in with my thought process: Isaac raised to 2900 from the cutoff and I called from the BB with red 88 (Blinds 600-1200 w 200 ante). The flop comes K 4 2 all diamonds. I check, he bet 5500, I make it 12,000, he goes all in for 22,000 more. I call. I'll add what happened next sometime tomorrow. Anyway, what do you think of the way I played the hand?

I actually like the call and think it's the best option considering the size of the stacks. If you 3-bet him to 10K are you ever folding to a shove considering his range? I mean KQ QJ even J10 suited are all decent enough hands to ship to a 3 bet here considering the likely ranges that 3-bet from the big. He's almost always folding small pairs unless he gets decides to spew (he's too good to do that), slim chance he ships with 77 or 66 but most of the time if he ships in that spot you're a flip or crushed, slightly ahead at best. You could do a smaller 3-bet to about 6.5-7.5K but he can still ship and if he calls in position what flops are you going to like? 3-betting is usually the best option but the stacks are only 30 odd bb deep and with antes the bet to get him off it has to be a bigger % of your stack than you want to commit with 88 pre-flop. By calling you keep the pot small, disguise the strength of your hand and keep him guessing. It also means you have more options on how to play there board post flop as you haven't defined your hand and the pot is small enough that you can call bets with implied odds (everybody knows how much Daniel likes his suited connectors).The re-raise on the flop is great for mixing it up and stops a few hands he continues with getting cheap turn cards, such as AQ,KJ,QJ,J10,109, or even 77,66,55,44. You also take away any equity he could have from bluffing at a face card hitting the turn that could but doesn't hit him such as Q (if he's playing KJ, J10 or even 77 to 44). Think he's almost always shipping BlankJd^ and probably even Blank10d which becomes a flip. 2 face cards on the flop is probably just a fold, but the re-raise is almost certainly better than just calling, as it's likely you have 11 outs considering the % of his range and if you call on the flop and he bets the turn what do you do? You could still have the best hand but a ship is easy to pick off is he does have a K or bigger pocket pair as with 3 diamonds you'd always raise 2 pair or a set on the flop. So I actually think calling the flop is probably the worst option as you have no fold equity on the turn and if a diamond does hit, you don't get paid if he doesn't have one and you probably get stacked if he does. You can't just fold the flop either with just the K, although shoving/re-raising are pretty similar, although a re-raise is a little more believable that you are strong. After his shove pot odds dictate a call against his range, so I don't get anybody who says that's bad as it's just standard really. Different lines work against different players and there are several ways to play this hand which would all be ok. However, re-raising pre-flop is a little pointless considering stack sizes if you feel your edge is post-flop which is undoubtedly the case for Daniel (you'd hate getting stacks in pre with 88 here, but are likely to be put to the test too often by a tough player like Haxton - although I don't know if he plays strong pre or post-flop). I don't mind shoving, but you give up any value you can have from what is a stronger hand a large % or the time, as he continues and then give up on a lot of boards with AX or KX and you inevitably get snap called by racing and dominating hands. Obviously folding is pre just always out of the question unless you feel your completely outclassed, but even then I think a shove is better.

[Bisull 0]

Saw this on twitter and just had to register, interesting hand for sureR/C nets more chips in the long run in tournaments although you obv get knocked out more, R/C will also result in more deep runs... def in a tough field R/C is gonna be the best preflop option, straight up shipping is a little big imo and should give a very good player and indication as to what you have 55-88, QJs+, KQo and similar, never AQ/AK or 99+DN and IH have history that's tough to comment on but I think in more spots than not DN is calling more OOP than 3betting when IH opens from a semi shallow stack. Think a lot of player's itt have a little online-esque thoughts on preflop play, calling here pre does have a lot of merit too since IH's range is huge and he has a stack where most players cbet/give up when called on flop (generally speaking of course, not knowing anything about IH's postflop play).I think DN's flop line is interesting and it's something we rarely see, especially with his exact hand. I don't think most players barrel off 30bb's on a dry monotone board w air but IH is not most players. DN's explanation is interesting too as he'll protect vs equity hands that cannot continue vs C/R, that's about it. Not sure if he folds any king that he bets on this flop, looks like he wouldn't bet/f a value hand with his stack, seems really bad, especially on this board. Therefore I think we can exclude all Kx hands without a diamond that he might bet/f. C/C flop is gonna get is tough spots on later streets if IH can barrel air (which I think he can but doesn't look like he would, just looking at it raw from home)R/C > C > SHIP pre flop imoC/C > C/R/C > C/SHIP > donk + other funky stuff

[Acerospy 0]

Hi, guys, first ever post in the forum, so hope it will go to the right place.Some really analytical comments on EV and other consideration not really known from outside of how the hand played. Like the call and raise on the flop, as it helps to define the hand, and could possibly take it down there and then. not knowing Haxton and how he plays, i would not call the shove for 22k more. why throw away good tournament chips? Are u realyl pot commited with 13.7k invested in the hand so that you would call 22 more on a hand that looks like a clear looser?unless Haxton would easily risk his tournament life on such a dangerous flop, with complete air?

[billionaire-recreational 0]

Do poker tournaments ever involve skill or just winning coinflips? Haxton played it perfectly, got it in as a 57-43 favorite, got knocked out.Later DNeg got it in 57-43 over Bonomo, could have easily been knocked out like Haxton but happened to win.It sounds like a bunch of pros exchanging coinflips until someone wins the lottery.

[DiogoLopes 0]

Are you putting these hands that dominate you at 5% because he bets on the flop to your check? If so how do you arrive at that %? The way I would look at it - of course he can have a pretty wide range with a cut-off bet pre-flop. But I would think he would bet any K diamond kicker here after the flop and check any hand that at least does not contain a king or a high to medium diamond. It's a terrible spot (in my opinion) to continuation bet without at least a king or a diamond. It opens up a check raise and could put him in a tough spot if he's weak. So my post-flop read on a check/bet would be strong hand (at least a King) or semi-bluffish (high/medium diamond) continuation bet. Of course I don't even know who we are talking about so your read and experience on his play is probably more effective here.Anyway - thanks for the response. It is great that we are able to have you here to answer questions.

Take all his range. Separate that:a) hands i beatb) hands are ahead of meSo you calculate the combinations of every hand. For example: AKo = We know there is a King on the flop, so there are 4 Aces and 3 Kings out. 4*3=12 combinations.After calculate the combinations of all range you discover how much in % hands that beat us represent of the Ike's entire range. Note: When i say 12 combinations of AK you have to understand that we can play for 11 outs against AK no diamonds and 2 outs against AK w/ diamond. That's why this is so tough spot. Really really difficult to calculate or real equity against Ike entire range and the % of hands that we beat without a pencil and paper Very nice play Daniel.

[fivechips 0]

Take all his range. Separate that:a) hands i beatb) hands are ahead of meSo you calculate the combinations of every hand. For example: AKo = We know there is a King on the flop, so there are 4 Aces and 3 Kings out. 4*3=12 combinations.After calculate the combinations of all range you discover how much in % hands that beat us represent of the Ike's entire range. Note: When i say 12 combinations of AK you have to understand that we can play for 11 outs against AK no diamonds and 2 outs against AK w/ diamond. That's why this is so tough spot. Really really difficult to calculate or real equity against Ike entire range and the % of hands that we beat without a pencil and paper Very nice play Daniel.

What is IKE betting this flop with? Is he really betting in to Daniel with three diamonds and no diamond or no King? Basically risking his tournament life on a continuation bet with no hope of winning to a DN check raise? I don't see how we can't narrow his range on his bet to any king or any diamond draw. In those situations he's committed and will make the bet. Otherwise I think he checks back to Daniel and maybe gives up the hand to a turn bet. And if we do narrow his range significantly we are behind and then a check/fold is probably the better play here. As it stood Daniel was in fact behind as a dog and needed to get lucky.As to the other post involving coin-flips. I would say at the late stages of a tournament the coin flip starts to become a viable strategy.

[Backslider 0]

My thinking on the flop went something like this: Ike is good. I can never fold here obviously, but check calling puts me in a lot of bad spots, AND allows him to see a free turn and river if he chooses too.

If you're worried about how good Ike is, and getting into bad spots, and giving him free cards.. then why did you just call pre-flop? You're going to get into bad spots where he is going to play well against you, in position, and he gets way more information from the flop than you do, what with his wide pre-flop range.I don't see how your pre-flop play can be good if your post-flop thinking is good. Backslider