HighwayStar 8 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Feral Cow Poker Hand ConverterPokerStars No-Limit Hold'em ($11+$1) t3000/t6000 ante t600 - 4 playersButton: t137,601 SB: t83,429 (Hero)BB: t14,184 UTG: t34,786 Preflop: (t11,400) Hero is SB with (4 players)UTG folds, Button raises to t137001 and is all-in, Hero?BTN is a decent reg. As is UTG if that makes any difference to future.Payouts = 594/396/236/158 Link to post Share on other sites
custom36 5 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Pretty quick fold for me. You both have a significant chip lead on the other 2. There's better places to get it in. Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 worst hand/range of hands to call with? Link to post Share on other sites
Darth Maple 0 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I insta call this. Link to post Share on other sites
outsider13 0 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 QQ+ imo Link to post Share on other sites
meservery 0 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Isn't button shoving tons here with BB being super short, and thinking that you would never call light with 2 stacks less than half the size as you. TT seems to be not a light call here.And if you call and win, your percent chance to win the whole fukking thing goes up dramatically. i dont know icm.Hows your heads up game? Is it good enough to overcome more than a 2-1 chip disadvantage?(I maybe have played 10 tournies in the past year.) Link to post Share on other sites
outsider13 0 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I don't thinks it's a matter of winning or losing, or even how much we need to make up on the chip leader. It's how much cash equity we are risking by calling here and being probably a 2-1 favorite. Basically we'd be losing this hand 1/3 times and allowing the 2 shorter stacks to reap the reward. edit - and fwiw, I don't think a call is horrible at all. It's actually very close to neutral, but definitely -$EV. Link to post Share on other sites
Mills 0 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I don't thinks it's a matter of winning or losing, or even how much we need to make up on the chip leader. It's how much cash equity we are risking by calling here and being probably a 2-1 favorite. Basically we'd be losing this hand 1/3 times and allowing the 2 shorter stacks to reap the reward. edit - and fwiw, I don't think a call is horrible at all. It's actually very close to neutral, but definitely -$EV.Understood, but isn't this something that a competent bigstack can exploit the F out of? Link to post Share on other sites
outsider13 0 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Understood, but isn't this something that a competent bigstack can exploit the F out of?Yup, as he should. Link to post Share on other sites
CorvairShaggy 5 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 edit - and fwiw, I don't think a call is horrible at all. It's actually very close to neutral, but definitely -$EV.Under normal circumstances, I would grunt and cuss and take a ton of time, but fold. Main reason is BB can only see a few more hands, and has like no fold equity against the big stack, and very little against you. Take the safe road and pickup the extra $75.BUT....This may sound stupid, and may be a huge problem for me, but it really depends on how my day/session/week has been going. If I am up and in a gambling mood, I make the call, partly becasue of this:Understood, but isn't this something that a competent bigstack can exploit the F out of?Does this make any sense, or is this mentality just completely idiotic??? Link to post Share on other sites
outsider13 0 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Under normal circumstances, I would grunt and cuss and take a ton of time, but fold. Main reason is BB can only see a few more hands, and has like no fold equity against the big stack, and very little against you. Take the safe road and pickup the extra $75.BUT....This may sound stupid, and may be a huge problem for me, but it really depends on how my day/session/week has been going. If I am up and in a gambling mood, I make the call, partly becasue of this:Does this make any sense, or is this mentality just completely idiotic???A lot of regs spite call in spots like this. I've done it a lot, and a lot wide than TT. It's sometimes hard not to because you dominate villains range. I ran the math earlier and I think it's close to +47k cEV, but still -$EV Link to post Share on other sites
TrueAce13 18 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 we have tens! i dunno...first thought was to snap call, but now that i think about icm, i dunno...i sitll prolly get it in Link to post Share on other sites
MaxStPolish 4 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Interesting hand. Thanks for sharing. I'm pretty certain I fold this assuming my trigger doesn't auto-snap just seeing tens four handed. ICM discussion itt.My question is that while this is a standard chip leader strategy w/ wide range.....does the fact that he's shoving into a BB with less than 3BBs (actually 2 after he posts here) factor at all into the fold? The notion that he knows essentially he will be going to showdown on this hand. Not to say that his hand range gets TOO tight, but it does shrink considerably from the "ATC" I would otherwise put him on if the short stack was UTG and you and 3rd place were in the blinds. Then again, I don't think he ever plays AA/KK this way, which only bolsters your crushing of the range.It's a fold...but it's a fold that leaves you unsatisfied, esp when BB doubles up though button in a junk showdown that TT would have taken down. Link to post Share on other sites
Donnie Ray 0 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 good comments thus far. villian shoves with a super wide range that would gladly get it in vs super short bb. i would snap call and lose vs jto. if you run better then i, win this hand win the tourney. no way your behind. play for the win, if it was 55 66 it would be different. Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 My question is that while this is a standard chip leader strategy w/ wide range.....does the fact that he's shoving into a BB with less than 3BBs (actually 2 after he posts here) factor at all into the fold? The notion that he knows essentially he will be going to showdown on this hand. Not to say that his hand range gets TOO tight, but it does shrink considerably from the "ATC" I would otherwise put him on if the short stack was UTG and you and 3rd place were in the blinds.It may affect his range for sure. It probably shouldn't much....assuming I fold 98% Of the time 32o has 32% against a random hand from the BB so is kinda getting the right "price" with 11.4k in dead money and only 8k in play.In reality I thinbk I'm probably jamming around 60% in his spot ...but usually the SB won't consider folding TT here. He also might not think I would be thinking of folding a hand like this here..we've played a fair bit together but that doesn't neccessarily mean much....a lot of regs won't fold 66 here.In terms of the ICM calculation I'm not sure how much a 60% range vs a 100% range changes the numbers/calling ranges...probably very little.Then again, I don't think he ever plays AA/KK this way, which only bolsters your crushing of the range.You might be right but I'm not convinced of this. Definitely a possibility.edit - in retrospect I think you are right in 90% of circumstances...this probably changes the ICM calculation more than the 40% of hands he may or may not have.. Link to post Share on other sites
MaxStPolish 4 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 It may affect his range for sure. It probably shouldn't much....assuming I fold 98% Of the time 32o has 32% against a random hand from the BB so is kinda getting the right "price" with 11.4k in dead money and only 8k in play.In reality I thinbk I'm probably jamming around 60% in his spot ...but usually the SB won't consider folding TT here. He also might not think I would be thinking of folding a hand like this here..we've played a fair bit together but that doesn't neccessarily mean much....a lot of regs won't fold 66 here.In terms of the ICM calculation I'm not sure how much a 60% range vs a 100% range changes the numbers/calling ranges...probably very little.You might be right but I'm not convinced of this. Definitely a possibility.edit - in retrospect I think you are right in 90% of circumstances...this probably changes the ICM calculation more than the 40% of hands he may or may not have.. So your contention would be that this actually shifts the caluclation in the direction of calling, since we're fairly comfortable removing half of the start hands that dominate you from his expected range? Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Probably, yes. Still dunno if it's a call. Link to post Share on other sites
outsider13 0 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I think he's probably just as likely to shove AA as J9s there. I think it's looks more fishy to shove and is more likely to get a call, so I don't think there are any hands from his raising range that should be excluded, imo. Link to post Share on other sites
outsider13 0 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Also, if the button shoves 100%, its a call. 60% is pretty much neutral and you should be passing up neutral spots when you have an edge like this.100%60%40% Link to post Share on other sites
riverrat 0 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Probably, yes. Still dunno if it's a call.You stated that you knew this guy and that he was a pretty solid player? Any chance at all that he is simply hoping to look somewhat weak and could have QQ or better? If you know him I assume that he also knows you as well. Just curious if you ever give a guy credit for thinking on 2nd and 3rd levels at these levels online. Link to post Share on other sites
outsider13 0 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Another thing to consider here as well is the likelyhood on the BB to come along into the pot. This would increase your equity. If you know the guy is on tilt and is 100% getting his chips in, this actually makes it a call based on ICM and putting bigstack at 40% range.Def an interesting hand. So many things can affect the numbers. Link to post Share on other sites
rrumsey 0 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 snap fold i think we are flipping and given icm and the fact we still have somewhat a stack to work i would fold. its pretty marginal +chipev if he is shoving pretty wide. plus given his action i think he has hands like AJs,AQo, J's,9's8's, maybe AK off where he has some value but doesnt wanna bet call too much. without reads it is an easy fold thou imo. if i noted the guy as an absolute whale i could call this and feel pretty meh i hate this but still do it and cross my fingers for an underpair. on the other hand we dont gain a lot by ladder pre FT in these payout structures. Link to post Share on other sites
HighwayStar 8 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 a few things.1) This is massively +chip EV vs almost anyone. We are not flipping most of the time..we are reasonably ahead2) This is the FT...if it was pre FT the decision is not remotely close.3) Way more likely to call vs a regular than a fish. Not many fish will jam a big range...they're more likely to raise if they're maniacal...which is rare to start. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 a few things.1) This is massively +chip EV vs almost anyone. We are not flipping most of the time..we are reasonably ahead2) This is the FT...if it was pre FT the decision is not remotely close.3) Way more likely to call vs a regular than a fish. Not many fish will jam a big range...they're more likely to raise if they're maniacal...which is rare to start.Prior to this spot was villain pushing often? I agree with your third point. I think he's shoving any two. Link to post Share on other sites
custom36 5 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 a few things.1) This is massively +chip EV vs almost anyone. We are not flipping most of the time..we are reasonably ahead2) This is the FT...if it was pre FT the decision is not remotely close.3) Way more likely to call vs a regular than a fish. Not many fish will jam a big range...they're more likely to raise if they're maniacal...which is rare to start.But if we lose we get no money. If we win, we're still not knocking him out. This is a moment I wish I knew ICM.The more I think about it, the more I call. But I really don't like it. Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now