interesting experiment on probability.

[Breathing 0]

i did it backwards the first time doubling the denominator of the 1/2 (two doors remaining) instead of doubling the numerator of 1/3 (original chance)

[akishore 0]

Nope, okay here it is.It is 2/3 of the time.The reason is simple. Let's say you chose a door and decided not to change your mind. Well you know what that means? It doesn't matter if you were shown the goat or not, you blindly going in, then still deciding to stay with your door is 1/3 and whats 3/3 - 1/3? 2/3!

nice.promise i didn't look at this post before posting. :-) aseem

[Naismith 0]

I have nothing to add to this. I just want to be e-mail notified when more responses are posted.Peace,Jay

[NickTheKid 0]

Nope, okay here it is.It is 2/3 of the time.The reason is simple. Let's say you chose a door and decided not to change your mind. Well you know what that means? It doesn't matter if you were shown the goat or not, you blindly going in, then still deciding to stay with your door is 1/3 and whats 3/3 - 1/3? 2/3!

nice.promise i didn't look at this post before posting. :-) aseem

Yeah I was talking to the other guy who "concured"

[JaysonWeber 0]

gay why did u tell

[Breathing 0]

this post is moving too fast, i post to one thing and 9 things have been posted since that, its killing me!

[Catamo 0]

I didnt either... i even posted during the same minute as you, and it was a long post

[NickTheKid 0]

It's pretty good, no?

[JaysonWeber 0]

I ****ING KNEW THAT TOO! I WAS WORKING IT OUT ON A NOTEBOOK HERE AND YOU HAD TO GIVE THE ANSWER!MODERATOR IS PISSSSSED :shock:

[allinbluff35 0]

I censored KNEW THAT TOO! I WAS WORKING IT OUT ON A NOTEBOOK HERE AND YOU HAD TO GIVE THE ANSWER!MODERATOR IS censored :shock:

moderator sucks

[akishore 0]

I censored KNEW THAT TOO! I WAS WORKING IT OUT ON A NOTEBOOK HERE AND YOU HAD TO GIVE THE ANSWER!MODERATOR IS censored :shock:

LMAO.not sure if i cracked up at the "moderator is pissed" part, or that "pissed" actually came out as "censored", and it was the moderator that was posting it.aseem

[NickTheKid 0]

Yeah I hate too see Vade stumped 8)

[Guest]

maybe I am jumping the gun...but it seems your gonna get 2 out of 3 doors either way..if you pick door A... and they show you door C is empty... you still have a chance with A... overall 66.6%if you pick door B... and the prize is there after revealind the empty door C then you win again...you lose 33% in the long run...now... if the person is trying to bust you... they will pick the empty door out of the 2 left if you miss... thus ****ing the equation... but im saying its random...you get the prize 66.6%

[Meatwad 0]

saw almost this exact problem on a tv show a week or two ago. i think it was numb3rs.

[NickTheKid 0]

I censored KNEW THAT TOO! I WAS WORKING IT OUT ON A NOTEBOOK HERE AND YOU HAD TO GIVE THE ANSWER!MODERATOR IS censored :shock:

LMAO.not sure if i cracked up at the "moderator is censored" part, or that "censored" actually came out as "censored", and it was the moderator that was posting it.aseem

lol I laughed at that too, he was talking like a caveman.

[Vade 0]

Yeah I hate too see Vade stumped 8)

Heh. I hate math, so bah :PI know, I play poker, and I hate math.Thankfully, they're not mutually exclusive (poker and hating math )

[NickTheKid 0]

My first guess was 50/50 as well.

[booty8831 0]

When you initially pick your door, you have a 1/3 chance of getting the door correct. Therefore 1/3 times the remaining two doors will both be empty and you get jack when you switch doors. Two thirds of the time, when you have initially chosen an incorrect door, the host opens the only remaining bad door, and so the other door has the prize. When you switch doors, your probably of winning is 2/3.

[Meatwad 0]

i like the one on Numb3rs better because one door had a car, the other two had goats. the way i look at it, if i come away with either i you can't lose. i'd pimp that goat in every sense of the word.

[ToxIk 0]

As long as you choose to switch your choice when shown a door, your chances are %66. I've seen this one before, took me a long time to get it though, eesh, so simple yet so hard!I saw this problem on this site a while ago (it's no. 48 "Monty Hall Problem"). the site has tons of stumpers like this. I've tried a bunch and got a few of them without great effort, but, they're still all big brain teasers. Nice collection if you like these sorta things. Solutions for most of them are there too.

[NickTheKid 0]

ugh where are the solutions? :(EDIT: nm, i see some.

[MrNiceGuy 0]

Yeah, this is the classic "Monty Hall" problem. (The TV game show was "Let's make a deal", Monty Hall was the host I believe).

[jonnyhockey 0]

Ya, I spent a long night at the cottage all boozed up trying to explain this one to some friends.The easiest way to sum it up, I think is...You'll initially pick a goat 2/3 of the time. (two out of the three doors have goats)When you've picked a goat, and automatically switch, you'll win. (he'll show you the other empty door, and you switch to the winning door)Bottom line, switch doors and you'll win 66.7% of the time.There was a site somewhere that automatically simulated a number of guesses and solutions, as entered by the user, but I can't find it at the moment.This laughs in the face of logic... I love it!

[Royal_Tour 0]

Ya, I spent a long night at the cottage all boozed up trying to explain this one to some friends.The easiest way to sum it up, I think is...You'll initially pick a goat 2/3 of the time.  (two out of the three doors have goats)When you've picked a goat, and automatically switch, you'll win. (he'll show you the other empty door, and you switch to the winning door)Bottom line, switch doors and you'll win 66.7% of the time.There was a site somewhere that automatically simulated a number of guesses and solutions, as entered by the user, but I can't find it at the moment.This laughs in the face of logic... I love it!

This can't be a true answer.If you eliminate 1 false door right away, you have a 50/50 chance. How can your odds increase?.. they will eliminate 1 door after you have chosen, if you chose to switch doors everytime, your odds that switching doors will win is still 50/50.

[CrazyJoe 0]

this makes the solution much easier to understand and makes it seem much more intuitive:"maybe its easier to see in this problem. there are 1000 doors, only one of which has a prize behind it. you pick a door, then monty opens 998 doors with goats behind them. do you switch? it seems more obvious in this case, because monty had to take care in which door not to open, and in the process basically showing you where the prize was (999 out of 1000 times). "