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About MrNiceGuy

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  1. I think the river is worth a check/raise, even given the double-paired board. (as long as you think MP will value-bet an overpair, otherwise you should probably lead out). It seems very unlikely that either opponent has a ten, and nealy impossible for either to have a 3. Button probably raises the river with any T or 99; he probably has something like JJ (although I suppose it's possible he has A3). Unless MP was screwing around with his preflop 3-bet, we're only losing if he has TT or 99, and chose to fastplay it on the flop.
  2. If he does, it's a very thin river bet.Prior to the river, I've got him on approximately AQ-A2 or KQ-K9. That would leave 54 hands that we tie (A8-A2), and 71 hands that we beat.If we're calling hoping to split the pot we're getting about 3.25-1. So I guess if you think he would often bet A-rag again on the river on this board, it's a call. But in my experience, I think I'd assume otherwise until I'd seen him try really thin value bets. It's probably a call if the river is an 8, but that J river just makes the board so scary.(Granted, a very good player wouldn't necessarily find that board
  3. I'd consider folding the flop after getting raised (depending largely on what I thought of CO's call).I'm definitely folding the river. Do you really think we get shown K8 or worse more than 1/9 times here?
  4. My 2 cents:Villain probably didn't start with a premium preflop hand, but otherwise could have any two cards.He has flopped one of four hands:1)A good hand (top pair or better, or a premium draw (SFD, pair+FD, etc.))2)A weak made hand (middle PP, 2nd pair, or 3rd pair)3)Some kind of ordinarly draw4)Absolutely nothing1) Villain might bet out, or might attempt to check/raise. (IMO, he's probably best to check/raise, since anyone with any draw that threatens him will likely bet for him anyway, and he'll get action from a wider range of hands if he checks than if he bets.).2) Villian might bet ou
  5. I don't like the preflop raise; BB seems fairly unlikely to fold, and you don't feel you have good control over CO even if you do get it heads-up, so why bloat the pot from OOP?As played, I'd have trouble folding on the turn myself, but I suspect that it's the best play against a "non-spewy" player. If he was going to make a raise with an OESD, I'd expect him to do so on the flop, rather than the turn after two opponents have shown considerable strength. So the only realistic hands you can beat are worse J's. This is an odd way to play a J, but a fairly standard way to play a big hand (J9,9
  6. Interesting.After going through the thought process below, I've decided that given the information we have, I think folding is the slightly better option. (But some specific information could easily change my decision to a call; for example, if we had any specific indication that he would likely not make a big reraise with AA/KK, or if I've seen him make a sizeable reraise with AK or QQ, then I'd call. On the other hand, if I've seen him cold-call on a previous hand with QQ, and it appeared to be based on caution rather than as a trap, then I'm very comfortable with a fold).If we call, we're
  7. Odds of filling (or quadding) by the river are 1-(40/47*36/46)=33.4% (slightly higher if you assume that the villains aren't holding any of our outs).I agree that, normally, getting raised on a 3-flush board is not necessarily reason to slow down with a set. But it this particular hand, I think CO's raise is overwhelmingly likely to be a straight or a flush (or, even worse, a slowplayed AA or KK). Even a moron should recognize that that monster flop likely hit hero very hard. The only plausible hand CO might raise with here that we can presently beat is a naked Jc, but for that too be the c
  8. You didn't say which river card paired; I like the river lead if it was the A that paired, and I think it's close if the K or Q pairs. Unless the CO is an idiot, it's not hard to read you for a boat at that point, whether you bet or not. The 8 I think you can go for the check/raise (you need CO to bet somewhere between 1/2 and 1/3 of the time).A not-insignificant drawback to check-raising is that if CO has the royal, we lose an extra bet (assuming we make the crying call). If we but him on the suited J when he 3-bets the turn, I think we can figure it's JT somewhere in the neighborhood of 1
  9. I couldn't (and still can't) decide whether it's better to wait for the river or check/raise on the turn. Is waiting for the river more likely to gain me one (or two) bets, or more likely to cost me one (or two) bets? I probably should just raise the turn, as you suggest, because few players will fold top pair in a heads-up pot, and because villain could check behind with a marginal hand (like AT) on a scary river (like a K).
  10. I'm not suggesting that the range I've given villain is complete; I just think that the majority of players I've encountered at 2/4 will have a range something along these lines when they raise from the cutoff, call a 3-bet heads-up in position (rather than cap), and call on this flop. Certainly there are many players out there who could have a wide variety of hands here; some of which my line will make extra money from, and some of which my line will miss a bet (or even two) against.Betting out on the turn and the river is the "safest" line, as it doesn't miss any bets, and it doesn't risk l
  11. I'm kind of surprised that almost everyone prefers leading the turn.My thoughts:Villain's range when he calls the flop bet is probably something along the lines of: AQ-A9(perhaps not including suited Ah),KhQh-KhTh, and perhaps 66 and 55.On the turn, that's 21 Ax hands, 5 AJ hands, a few heart draws, and 6 set hands. So I'm still roughly a 2-1 favorite against this range, the majority of which are worse Aces that are way behind.Villain probably suspects I have something along the lines of AK, AA-99, perhaps AQ.Although I don't know villain, I think it's unlikely that he raises the turn or rive
  12. I doubt it, particularly since I'm not sure he calls on the flop with an underpair.
  13. PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K. 2 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, CO calls.Flop: (7 SB) A, 5, 6(2 players)Hero bets, CO calls.Turn: (4.50 BB) J(2 players)Hero checks, CO bets, Hero pauses and calls.River: (6.50 BB) 6(2 players)Hero CHECKS, PLANNING TO CHECK-RAISE.Final Pot: 10.50 BBIf the river had been a Q or a T, I check/call. As is, if I c/r and get 3-bet, I'm reluctantly calling.Villain is unknown. Ok, or FPS?
  14. I agree with other responders. The only way I'm checking the turn is if UTG is a tight-passive opponent who almost certainly has at least an A (and almost certainly won't be folding it).Make the Jc on the flop the 3c instead, and I'd check behind against more (but not all) opponents.
  15. Assuming that I would forget what they had after I acted (If I would know their hands throughout the hand, then I'd raise in every case, knowing that I'd never make a bad fold or give a dangerous free card postflop), then I think I'd check in the first case and raise in the others. In the first case, I'd just as soon not give them the right odds to draw at gutshots on the flop, plus I'll be very vulnerable to semibluffs and I'll often make a bad fold postflop (so my 43% preflop chances would actually be reduced, as I'll often make a bad fold and my opponents almost never will). In the latter
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