$10,000 In A Month At Nl 25 Full Ring

[Sheiky 0]

As a microstakes player, I find it oddly reassuring that he's having trouble at $25NL.

Yeh me too, though it's kind of depressing that he has a slightly worse winrate 24 tabling than i do 4 tabling.

[Jariso13 1]

Honestly, I don't think it's variance as much as it is fatigue and maybe the fact that people know what he is doing... It wouldn't suprise me if people are trying to sabotage too... I've played with him many times and he seems to be doing some weird plays in these recent days... Although maybe this has worked in the past I'm pretty sure I see a decent amount missed opportunities to save money and make plays... Hopefully he can run hot in the next few days to keep the morale up. Would be nice to see him get to 10k I admit, but it's not looking good.

Thats a good point...I bet there are some people jumping in these games to play with him that normally wouldnt do so. Also, was it a rule that he needed to 24 table at all times or is he allowed to play less?

[Jariso13 1]

Heres the new graph btw...Its starting to get a little ugly.

[Pivvy2001 0]

what would the updated odds be on this action? I know that he is not updating the odds, but what would people on this site be willing to bet at to take this action at this point

[Sheiky 0]

Thats a good point...I bet there are some people jumping in these games to play with him that normally wouldnt do so. Also, was it a rule that he needed to 24 table at all times or is he allowed to play less?

He can play any number.I also don't think his recent streak has anything to do with people jumping on his tables, given that it's full ring and he's playing 24 of them, there's realistically not much someone could do to 'sabotage' his attempt.

[fighter 4]

a 50k breakeven stretch at 25NL has nothing to do with variance.

I think it does to a degree. He is only playing the very best hands and they take alot of hands to get. Like every 224 you will get aces, His range isnt that tight but you get the point. Now when you are playing that tight people are only going to give you action when they have a good hand. When we play that tight and start getting no action we will open up our range and make a profit from stealing blind. He doesnt have that luxury considering the number of tables he is playing. He is trying to push a really marginal edge and I imagine that long variance isnt uncommon.

[Sheiky 0]

I don't think it's much coincidence that his downswing has come after 50k hands of 24 tabling in just 4 days...

[Jariso13 1]

He can play any number.I also don't think his recent streak has anything to do with people jumping on his tables, given that it's full ring and he's playing 24 of them, there's realistically not much someone could do to 'sabotage' his attempt.

I didnt say its getting sabotaged...But at times there are over 300 people watching his web cam...If some of these people are better than the average .10/.25 player and decide to jump in his games it will cut into his win rate in the long run...Even if its a 9 man table if 3 of his opponents suddenly become solid players the game gets much tougher...

[TravisG 0]

I think it does to a degree. He is only playing the very best hands and they take alot of hands to get. Like every 224 you will get aces, His range isnt that tight but you get the point. Now when you are playing that tight people are only going to give you action when they have a good hand.

Nah, that's not true at those limits. Of course it isn't like 1c/2c where everybody goes broke with A3 on a A Q T board, but you still get much action, because almost everyone who is not a (good) regular grinder there has no clue of position and reverse implied odds situations, so he gets payed of with his AK against AT-AQ a ton. And even if he's at a "shark" table, the less hands you play, the less variance you get in the long run. The reason that you have more variance with a looser style is not because "you play more hands", but because the exact same situations (you know, a certain hand against a special type of opponent with different stack sizes and different streets that have already been played out) occur much more rarely, which is why variance needs more time to even itself out. If you try out and only play AA vs any hand AIPF, you will see that it won't need that long to even the variance out, of course not perfectly. You can see that LAG players can really run pretty well or pretty bad (tho winning on both sides), even over a very large sample sizes (lets say, 100k hands), because you get in so many more different situations than a TAG player, it can happen that you might only see a identical situation like, 2 or 3 times in 25k hands, and there it's important if your flush draw hits and you get an extra buyin or not. And as I see now, he is losing, not winning anymore. I think he's just overwhelmed by 24 tables.

When we play that tight and start getting no action we will open up our range and make a profit from stealing blind. He doesnt have that luxury considering the number of tables he is playing. He is trying to push a really marginal edge and I imagine that long variance isnt uncommon.

Yes, but I guess the edge is just that marginal because he probably plays really unefficient postflop. I think he's only going to reach his goal if he either reduces his tables to like, at least 12-16 and start to play more hours, or if he puts in a really high volume at a lower winrate. i don't think he's anywhere near sustaining 4ptbb/100 when he starts getting really bored and tired.

[Sheiky 0]

I didnt say its getting sabotaged...But at times there are over 300 people watching his web cam...If some of these people are better than the average .10/.25 player and decide to jump in his games it will cut into his win rate in the long run...Even if its a 9 man table if 3 of his opponents suddenly become solid players the game gets much tougher...

That isn't happening to any degree though, it'd be very uncommon for him to be at a table with more than one other 2+2er at any time, given that he's playing 24 tables it's incredibly unlikely that even if enough people wanted to play on the same table as him, they'd acctually manage to get a seat on the same table together.And even if they did it's FR and really doesn't matter that much.People following him at tables will do nothing to affect his win rate what so ever.

[fighter 4]

Nah, that's not true at those limits. Of course it isn't like 1c/2c where everybody goes broke with A3 on a A Q T board, but you still get much action, because almost everyone who is not a (good) regular grinder there has no clue of position and reverse implied odds situations, so he gets payed of with his AK against AT-AQ a ton. And even if he's at a "shark" table, the less hands you play, the less variance you get in the long run. The reason that you have more variance with a looser style is not because "you play more hands", but because the exact same situations (you know, a certain hand against a special type of opponent with different stack sizes and different streets that have already been played out) occur much more rarely, which is why variance needs more time to even itself out. If you try out and only play AA vs any hand AIPF, you will see that it won't need that long to even the variance out, of course not perfectly. You can see that LAG players can really run pretty well or pretty bad (tho winning on both sides), even over a very large sample sizes (lets say, 100k hands), because you get in so many more different situations than a TAG player, it can happen that you might only see a identical situation like, 2 or 3 times in 25k hands, and there it's important if your flush draw hits and you get an extra buyin or not. And as I see now, he is losing, not winning anymore. I think he's just overwhelmed by 24 tables.Yes, but I guess the edge is just that marginal because he probably plays really unefficient postflop. I think he's only going to reach his goal if he either reduces his tables to like, at least 12-16 and start to play more hours, or if he puts in a really high volume at a lower winrate. i don't think he's anywhere near sustaining 4ptbb/100 when he starts getting really bored and tired.

TAG's have less variance because they avoid situtations where they they are only very slight favourites by virtue of there pre flop decision.LAG's need more hands to even out varience due to the size of the edges they are taking AND the amount of situations they are getting involved in. It is the second part that I think people are missing. Ill use a really simplified example. If you were in a blindless game where people would call you open shove with only pocket kings then a +ev stratergy would be to just wait for AA and shove. You will not lose money from the blinds and when someone has KK then you will get paid off. Now not only would you have to wait for AA, but you would have to wait for someone else to have KK. This would occure twice every 1k hands at a guess. So lets say that AA goes down to KK twice in the first 1k hands. (This would occur once ever 1 out of 16 due to AA being a 80% favourite). So right there is a 2k break even strech if the next two are in your favour. Now factor into WCGriders case people folding, blinds, multi way pots, the fact he isnt getting it in as 80% favourite all the time and a bunch of other little factors and long streches are not that unbelievable. That all being said I think that his ability as a player is not the same as it was on day 2 and while it is plausible that this could just be variance occams razor says otherwise.However he will never win this contest by dropping tables, regardless of how you look at it.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Heres the new graph btw...Its starting to get a little ugly.

[x] $0.01 per hand.

[fornicator1 0]

[x] $0.01 per hand.

So a million hands and hes good to go right....................oh

[Jariso13 1]

That all being said I think that his ability as a player is not the same as it was on day 2.

I think that statement is the most important one. I dont think people are picking up on his patterns and image. I think his is quickly mentally exhausting himself. It cant be exciting getting out of bed knowing that you have to play 16 hours of 24 tables and need to make up a bunch of buy ins that you are behind. Especially when he has been doing it the last 5 days and has another 25 coming up. The Monster and Red Bull that are sitting next to him at his desk are great short term patches but in the long run are only going to make him crash even more.

[Vtlaxer09 4]

he needs a 40 bi day in the next 4 days or he's absolutely ****ed.

[BellaireDrew 2]

1:36wcgrider:+300 on the day so far

[Jariso13 1]

Well theres a good start lol...He needs that hot streak really pick up though cause his day is more than half way over I believe...

[Snamuh 0]

Told you he'd be fine today.

[Whatever 1]

Snamuh is alive? Dude update your blog. It's ok if you lost your ass. We understand.

[king1305 0]

Snamuh is alive? Dude play on Full Tilt.

[Jariso13 1]

Looks like he is back on the stickam...http://www.stickam.com/wcgriderI was in AC losing in the pit...anyone have any idea how hes doin today? Hopefully better than me lol...He sure looks tired though...I mean he was playin 14 hours ago when I 1st checked...not sure if how many breaks hes taken...

[Money022 0]

I wonder how many FPP's he's racked up so far or will by the end of the month. Has to be a lot.

[Jariso13 1]

I wonder how many FPP's he's racked up so far or will by the end of the month. Has to be a lot.

Yah I was wondering if he would have been better just doing this on Full Tilt to get some rakeback.

[Jariso13 1]

Ok I took the tough trip to 2+2 and found todays graph lol...In a quick skim of the thread I also saw something very interesting...He is taking more action! I am starting to doubt him and am not sure that is a great idea at this stage in the game...My favorite post by him was:

WCGrinder: variance: dad found 2+2 and called me concerned about why im taking more aciton

I would assume his parents knowing about this is just another added layer of pressure...I mean he is just 19 and prob still lives home...

[AAsnake88 0]

Yah I was wondering if he would have been better just doing this on Full Tilt to get some rakeback.

He can only play 18 tables on full tilt.