Jump to content

Another Cobalt Hand Guessament (fr) (2/5)


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 53
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Does Cobalt even end up winning this hand? I think he made his play based on his read of MP1. But something tells me UTG probably takes it down with some goofy 2pair. (this is to say I have no idea what Cobalt has. Perhaps 9h7h)

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the answer is so obvious. I'm waiting for the prize to double before I guess."guess"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, guessing Cobalt's hand isn't all that easy. I thought I'd do some analysis myself of how the hand goes and if nothing else it'll help me cuz I've been away from the game for a couple weeks. Also we can see how far off I am.He has position and raise and call in front of him, he likely believes that UTG will call the raise but not reraise because he is passive. This eliminates big PP and AK from his range. Suited connectors/gappers and middle PPs go up. His range could be pretty huge here too as it's not a big % of his stack and he knows everyone in the hand will have him covered, also all players are loose so he figures their ranges are big and that he may be able to stack one of them.Flop comes 9c8s6s. Checks to Hero, we have no information from the villains and hero could bet with many hands here. I doubt he bets with nothing as the board is draw and middle heavy so bluffing into 3 loose players seems foolish. I would put Cobalt on something like, sets, 1010, 77, spades, 10J, 57, 67, 78, 78, 710, QJ. That seems about right to me, maybe something random like A10 and taking a stab but not as frequent. Cobalt bet $80 and a loose passive and loose aggro both check/called. From Cobalts description it seems like loose aggro shouldn't be much of a problem here because if he had a hand here we would have seen him wake up with a raise here because thats what LAGs do with draws and strong hands on flops. The loose passive player would be the one I'd be afraid of with possible straight draws or spades. Loose aggro could have 10J just not of spades and be looking for a nice turn after UTG priced him in.Turn 9c8s6sQc.This appears to be a very dangerous card. Cobalt can't really bet here with his weak holdings of the previous range. Making things even more complicated for us to figure out his hand is that MP1 leads $100 into him and UTG could easily be on J10 or spades IMO. If I were in Cobalt's shoes here I'd be taking a long look at UTG if I didn't have J10 because I think he or MP1 could have it. With no read on UTG it tightens up Cobalts shoving range a ton. With a read on UTG it loosens it up considerably as Cobalt can certainly push and have a little fold equity from MP1. MP1's bet seems smallish and may be an attempt to steal the pot for cheap from Cobalt who may be viewed as tight/weak despite the TAG description.I can't really see a shove from Cobalt without 7sxs, a made straight, or a set at this point. I'm probably way off and Cobalt shows up here with K10cc or something.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8c6c
Nice guess. I thought that someone might be able to figure it out. PM me your Stars or FT name and I'll ship the $5.(Very close, Royal.)Now that we know the hand...what's everyone think of the play? My feeling was that while one of them could possibly have JT, it wasn't particularly likely. The passive probably doesn't come in that early with that hand and the LAG would've c-bet the flop with it...and he wouldn't have donkbet the turn like that. His donkbet screamed that he was probably on some sort of draw to me. On the off-chance that one of them does have the straight here, I'm still drawing quite live (unless it's specifically JcTc).
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

Announcements


×
×
  • Create New...