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Everything posted by darkrider88
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Let's see...Pot is about 2,200, and it costs your 1,200 more to call.You only need to win here 33% of the time, so pot odds look favorable.This is a low stakes tourney, so a player's range for pushing on this board are huge. Your bet screams of a continuation bet (If you had flopped a good ace, you probably would have checked).With all the other pairs that are pushing, I think you have enough equity here to call. I'm making the call, only because it is early in the tourney and I like to take a chance for a stack to work with. I think pushing is creative, but the smaller raise probably has a
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Based on where I am at in the tourney, with average stack being about 16,000, and the details I gave above, do I need to be accumulating a lot of chips right now?
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Stars 3.30 rebuy tourney, 1200 left, 700 get paid. Blinds are 300 600 and 50 anteHero has 16,700, villian has 9,000.Hero has AQ and raises to 1800 UTG. Villian in UTG+1 goes all in for 7,000 more. Everyone folds to hero.To do the quick math, the pot is about 12,000, and I have to call about 7,000. I'm getting laid 12-7, or in other words If I can win here more than 37% of the time I should call. .
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easycall
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copernicus,I don't think calculating his range by using something like pokerstove is really unfair here. Pokerstove figures out how many ways you could have each hand and does a weighted average. I think the way I did above probably gives a clearer picture, since he is much more likely to have an overpair than AK (which is not evident in your calculations).
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The way it is played, you have to fold the turn. A small raise on the flop may have given you some info, but at the same time you don't have a strong hand and it is probably better to keep this pot small, especially since you have position working for you. Another way to look at it is to see what hands you can beat, which are very few. AJ ties you, KJ and 10J has you beat, and QJ he has a ton of outs. He isn't playing this hand like he's got two hearts. Tough hand.
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My instinct here is to fold. You have to figure you are up against a big pair about 70% of the time (making you 20% to win), maybe AK suited 20% of the time (you are about 50% to win) , and a lower pair / bluff 10% of the time (you are about 80% to win).The pot is 39,500, and you need to call 26,000, giving you about 1.5 to 1. In other words, if you can win more than 40% of the time, it is a good call.Using the range I listed above:70% (.20)+20%(.50)+10%(.8)= 32%Clear fold.If we were to loosen our range to 60% high pair, 30% high cards, and 10% bluff/lower pair, then we are onlyu 35% to win,
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The more i think about it, i can see the call making sense.
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If his M is 5 or less, then I can see the call.He has no vigorish though, and I think you can just wait for a better spot.
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There are a good amount of subtle differences that have been mentioned in other threads, but the major difference is bubble play. In an MTT, making the money usually earns you 1.5X your buy in. As most people know, playing more aggressively becomes correct.In a STT, you should be tight as hell on the bubble, because making third place is far more significant. (To see a detailed explanation, check out HOH III).
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I see the arguement of laying down KK here, the only problem is that you can never be 100% that villian's range is only AA.To do a little math... you are getting about 1.8 to 1 on a call (Assuming blinds and UTG fold, which I think is a reasonable assumption here), meaning that you only need to win about 36% of the time to show profit. Even if villian has AA, you are nearly 20% to win. Therefore, you can only fold if you are above 86% sure that villian is holding AA (which is absolutely ridiculous, I would put it at more like 60-70%). Therefore you call.BTW, I know this is a large simplific
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Obviously you fold jacks there.The question I was thinking is, what if hero has QQ in that spot?Then it becomes an interesting problem.
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If you have 1.8 to one, you can call with the worse hands of his range (HOH III)Q9 off is probably worse than his range, and you are not getting laid the odds to call here.I'm waiting for better than 2-1 to consider this. Fold AINEC
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Don't second guess your push there; you're M was low and you had first in vigorish. As for the tourney, TAG might not work very well.
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Why are you calling AIPF w/ a good stack and AQ offsuit?otherwise, you got sucked out on. big deal
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Sucks the way the hand turned out.However, I don't hate the check on the flop that badly. In a way it can disguise your draw against strong players (they figure you'd bet a draw on the flop), and in this situation you are up against two opponents who haven't acted, one of which was the PF raiser. I do fire one bet on the turn though.
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That doesn't sound pretty.
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I am going to be in Tunica.Can't wait to see him live.
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My First Post Ever! Most Brutal Beat
darkrider88 replied to CoryGompf's topic in General Poker Forum
And another brand new poster gets flamed to hell... -
Fun W/ Cops While Underage And Shitfaced
darkrider88 replied to darkrider88's topic in General Poker Forum
I said I made a mistake, it was bad judgement and I didn't think things through. I appreciate your comments, and I've realized how dumb my actions were.-Oh and by the way, the makeup sex was w/ my gf, who I got into a fight with that night. -
Fun W/ Cops While Underage And Shitfaced
darkrider88 replied to darkrider88's topic in General Poker Forum
I thought the incident with the cop was funny, but driving drunk is not funny at all. Why do you think I pulled over in the first place; I didn't want to drive at all. Unfortunately, when the cops busted the house I went on instinct and ran to my car and drove to the nearest lot to chill. -
Fun W/ Cops While Underage And Shitfaced
darkrider88 replied to darkrider88's topic in General Poker Forum
Just wanted to say...I completely understand DUI is absolutely terrible and there is no excuse. That was my last time doing it, and the only reason I did it to begin with was because cops busted the party we were both at.I feel like **** about doing it, and it kind of dawned on me how ****ing stupid it is. Not only am I hurting myself, I could easily **** up the life of someone else. I was an ******* for doing it. -
sick feeling.
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Fun W/ Cops While Underage And Shitfaced
darkrider88 replied to darkrider88's topic in General Poker Forum
In PA, I'm pretty sure if you are caught in a car drunk, you are basicially screwed (especially underage). -
I'm not so sure it is a smart idea to post this, but I've never lied to a cop before...Without getting into unimportant details, I am in a car, with a girl (we'll call her Sarah), and we are parked in an empy lot. We use to go out, but currently I've just been hooking up w/ her (she is best friends with my gf, all women are sluts). Instead of hooking up however, she was apologizing for some BS she did earlier that night and talking. We were coming from a busted party, and I was slightly buzzed, but alright to drive. She had more drinks than was socially acceptable or healthy, and was prese