Quick Check Up

[Doug 0]

I play 10 man sitngo's vs AWFUL players. I mean awful, today one of them called a re-raise with 5c7c against a rock who held kings. I don't really make mistakes and the only way these guys beat me is usually suckouts or when I hold a hand such as JJ vs their KK as I have to re-raise because they are capable of re-raising me with ace nine etc.Have no idea what these things are, please tell me whether I am doing well or not.SNG ITM%: 57.14%SNG ROI: 87.30%I probably havn't played enough to get a really accurate overview but just tell me if I should be doing better etc. Thanks =)

[litlebullet 0]

I play 10 man sitngo's vs AWFUL players. I mean awful, today one of them called a re-raise with 5c7c against a rock who held kings. I don't really make mistakes and the only way these guys beat me is usually suckouts or when I hold a hand such as JJ vs their KK as I have to re-raise because they are capable of re-raising me with ace nine etc.Have no idea what these things are, please tell me whether I am doing well or not.SNG ITM%: 57.14%SNG ROI: 87.30%I probably havn't played enough to get a really accurate overview but just tell me if I should be doing better etc. Thanks =)

Looks to me like you're crushing them, lol.87.30% means you've almost doubled your starting investment.Of course ITM means in the money percentage.You can't keep that rate up in the long run. Enjoy it while you can.

[rgold79 0]

Sample size?

[Doug 0]

Sample size is about 30+sng's but I know I can at least keep this up at this level of awful play.

[pokerfan1080 0]

Sample size is about 30+sng's but I know I can at least keep this up at this level of awful play.

Your sample size is way to small.I think to get a decent understanding of your long term results you'll need about 500.Good start though.

[Doug 0]

Yeah I know it's way too small but I know I will get more or less the same results as I am getting now. I have around a 70-75% heads up win vs these guys because they are so easy to play and I am pretty good at HU. This alone creates a lot of value as I finish first a lot more than I should. Also these guys play garbage and will call pot sized bets to hit bottom ends of the straights remember. One question though, what do ITM% and ROI actually stand for?Not to sound big headed but I am way too good for these players, they throw their money at me. I would be playing at higher limits but I am a student and don't have the BR.

[Zach6668 513]

Your sample size is tiny.You will almost definitely not be able to sustain your ROI.

[litlebullet 0]

you'll quickly get the bank roll for dollar sng's. If you're playing antying less than dollar ones, then sure you might be able to sustain a HUGE roi, but I'm not sure how satifying that would be in the long run. Play the level you want right now though. ROI means rate of interest, how much cash you've made as a percent compared to your cumulative buyins. So let's say you have played 20 5 dollar tourneys, and you've made 150 dollars. Your roi would be 50% (150-100= 50 dollars/ 100 dollars= 50%.) ITM means in the money. That's pretty obvious what that means. Seriously, play the dollar sng's if you can, then take a 500 or 1000 sng sample then see what your stats really are.

[jmbreslin 0]

You can't keep up that level of play for the simple fact that the percentages will start to even things out a bit. Over the long run, your opponents will suck out more often and you'll run into more of those JJ vs. KK situations. The result is that you'll experience more bustouts out of the money when your weak opponents win more of those hands they "shouldn't" win.I can't remember where I came across it first, but I read a post by a player in another forum who analyzed the results of something like 10,000 SNG's from different quality players at various levels. Based on his analysis, one of his conclusions was that the absolute best that any player can expect to do over the long run is to finish in the money about 44% of the time.

[Actuary 3]

ROI is Return on Invesment.

[litlebullet 0]

ROI is Return on Invesment.

oops. As Carlos Mencia says dee-dee-dee. Pretty lame when you type it. Uhh... I knew what it meant at least.

[trystero 0]

What do you want a check-up for? These aren't the stats you usually use for a check-up. Those are PT stats like VPIP, PFR, WTSD%, etc, to make sure you're doing the basics 'right.' These just say that you're crushing the limits you're playing.Your sample size is way too small, as others have mentioned. Go on a downswing and even the worst of players will take a lot of your money.

[Abbaddabba 0]

When people post threads like this, there's a formula that should generally be applied to get a more accurate estimate...Take the square root of the winrate (or ROI), divide 0.75, and add a negative sign to the front of it.

[GetSprung 0]

If you maintain this sick ROI over 500 sngs I'll personally buy you dinner. I like buying dinner for good poker players, I'm a sicko.

[GABMAD 0]

honestly...get a bigger sample size...i can wipe my *** with your stats because they mean nothing. and you can't maintain an 87% ROI no matter how bad they are. You know that 87 is an amazing and impossibe to sustain ROI so why even ask. You're bragging, but your sample size is way to small for it to mean anything. Get at least 1000 sit and go's and then you'll know your approximate true ROI

[Doug 0]

Im not bragging as you can see in my first post (if you had bothered to read topics and not just posted a useless reply in each and every topic of the general strategy section) That i Didn't know what these abbreviations of letters meant. Thanks for the input everyone else though, I may repost the stats in about 300 sitngo's or so.

[Actuary 3]

Get at least 1000 sit and go's and then you'll know your approximate true ROI

you don't need 1000 unless your game skill is changing significantly.250 is plenty to get a very close ROI figure 95% of the timr.

[GABMAD 0]

you don't need 1000 unless your game skill is changing significantly.250 is plenty to get a very close ROI figure 95% of the timr.

where are you getting those numbers?

[Actuary 3]

where are you getting those numbers?

personal experience.But if you want the math, I'll get that for you.I may be wrong?

[GABMAD 0]

personal experience.But if you want the math, I'll get that for you.I may be wrong?

from personal experience...i had 1300 sit and go's and an ROI of 17...500 sit and go's where I go through my worst run to date losing 4.5 k....ROI is 11. 250 is not enough.

[Actuary 3]

you don't need 1000 unless your game skill is changing significantly.250 is plenty to get a very close ROI figure 95% of the timr.

sounds like you are asking for math.hold on...

[Actuary 3]

as I recall...Assume a $11, $50/30/20 10 Man SnGVariance if we assume you win 1/2 and don't cash 1/2, your Var per SnG = 625I'm pretty sure there is no other assumption that yields a higher varianceThe Variance of a Mean assuming i.i.d random variables is Var(X)/N .. .... I hope?THe Stdev = Sqrt (Var).+2/-2 two Stndev covers >95%.Sqrt (625/250) = 1.58So, 95% of the time the total earned will be in a range 4*1.58 or $6.32 wide.$6.32 / ($11 * 250) = 0.23%.THat's about 1/5 of 1%. Unless I missed a fundamental Statistics thing, 250 seems plenty.

[navybuttons 15]

so sick...you're both right.math tells you 250-500 should be a big enough sample size, while Gigabet (the best SNG player ever) says he went though 2000 runs with a drastically different result. final tally: math 1, real life 1.oh the humanity!

[Actuary 3]

so sick...you're both right.

the math assumes one big thing:You play essentially the same and in the same game each time.that's a big assumption.

[Mr. Sparco 2]

Actuary, I think you're a bit off on the end there... The 1.58 you calculate is, as you say, the standard deviation of the mean. That is, after those 250 games, you would expect to have earned14 +/- 1.58per game. (The EV of 14 is just 50% of the 39 you make when you win minus 50% of the 11 you pay when you lose.)In other words, 95% of the time you would expect your actual winnings per game to be off less than 2 * 1.58 = 3.16. That 3.16 corresponds to a fluctuation in ROI of 3.16 / 11 = 28.7%.If you want that number to go down to, say, 5%, you would actually need about 7000 games. Of course if, as in the example, your ROI is over 100%, you should be quite happy to be able to state it with an accuracy of about 30%, so 250 games is indeed enough. But if you are a slightly above average player, with an ROI of, say, 10%, it's going to take a very long time for you to make sure the ROI you're seeing is not just variance.