Official Offseason Thread

[Moneyball16 0]

Why would the royals trade for another first base/corner outfielder? They already have a logjam at these positions. Trading from a position of weakness to a position of strength(well maybe depth) is a dumb idea.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

I was hoping to generate a little discussion on the following:What are your thoughts on the Gary Sheffield trade?Will the Tigers rotation perform better, worse, or the same as last year?Will the Tigers peform better or worse than last year?I decided to stop being a lameoid, and put in about 4 hours at baseball prospectus this morning, since I haven't been able to contribute around here much given my current lack of knowledge. WangPS- Complete sidenote: is it me, or does Ken Griffey, Jr.'s career look a LOT less impressive than I feel like it should?

[aadams_22 3]

Complete sidenote: is it me, or does Ken Griffey, Jr.'s career look a LOT less impressive than I feel like it should?

it looked a hell of a lot better before he got hurt, it still shouldn't detract from what he's done

[MDXS 0]

PS- Complete sidenote: is it me, or does Ken Griffey, Jr.'s career look a LOT less impressive than I feel like it should?

I think it's all about expectations. It's a great career, but he became the best player in the game at a young age and everyone was talking about how he's be the one to pass Hank Aaron. A few injuries and a string of useless seasons and he falls short.

[aadams_22 3]

I was hoping to generate a little discussion on the following:I decided to stop being a lameoid, and put in about 4 hours at baseball prospectus this morning, since I haven't been able to contribute around here much given my current lack of knowledge.

don't waste your time...you are much better off with Baseball-Almanac.com that way you won't have to wade through all the sabremetric BS that inundates prospectus

[MDXS 0]

don't waste your time...you are much better off with Baseball-Almanac.com that way you won't have to wade through all the sabremetric BS that inundates prospectus

Yeah Wang, why have evidence when you can make it all up?

[greatwhite 0]

Newsiness:- Red Sox trade for Branden Donnelly- Vernon Wells expected to sign 7-year extension with Jays for $126 million.I love both deals for both teams. As a Jays fan, I hate the Donnelly deal. I felt the Sox were better than the Yankees before this, and this goes a long way in helping them even more. Donnelly is a sick reliever, should help them a lot.I love the Wells deal. Go Jays.

I wouldn't exactly call him sick. He is 4/14 in SVO lifetime and has not pitched as well the past few years as he did his first few. If the Red Sox are planning on him being the closer they can expect a lot of blown saves. Right now he looks like he might be the Sox closer with their terrible bullpen.

[aadams_22 3]

Yeah Wang, why have evidence when you can make it all up?

anyone can make up numbers to attempt to prove something...that doesn't necessarily mean that those numbers are right

[MDXS 0]

I wouldn't exactly call him sick. He is 4/14 in SVO lifetime and has not pitched as well the past few years as he did his first few. If the Red Sox are planning on him being the closer they can expect a lot of blown saves. Right now he looks like he might be the Sox closer with their terrible bullpen.

He's not going to be the closer.

[MDXS 0]

anyone can make up numbers to attempt to prove something...that doesn't necessarily mean that those numbers are right

Right. So why not lean towards numbers with logic and thought behind them? You'll never be able to condense baseball down to a formula, but you can use them to come to a better understanding of the game.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Right. So why not lean towards numbers with logic and thought behind them? You'll never be able to condense baseball down to a formula, but you can use them to come to a better understanding of the game.

I'm not going to get into the middle of this pissing match, except to say I understand how both of you feel. I have plenty of friends who like the illusion of "superhero otherworldliness" that goes with baseball success. I know plenty of reasonably intelligent people who've decided long ago that they can't deal with baseball (and sports/life) in general simply being an overlapping series of statistically-generated matrices. But I still mock them, because it's myopic and slightly immature to think that "numbers don't tell the whole story." Well, they might not tell the whole story, but they tell enough of the story that we can make pretty much every single important (and unimportant) decision based on those numbers. Too many people simple can't enjoy sports if there's not some... mystical quality about them. I understand the feeling, I really do. But I think it's based on equal parts stubborn weakness and dishonesty.No need to convince me of the value of the Jamesian approach to baseball, MDXS. I played for years, but I'm still a stat-balla. I still think I was MVP of our team my junior year, because I walked 42 times in 30 games.Wang

[TB17 0]

Let me preface this by saying I love Vernon Wells. He's the #1 CF in baseball right now, behind NO ONE, IMO. He's the Jays' best player, by all accounts a stand up dude, and normally I'd love the prospect of keeping him around for his entire career.

FYP

[InsanityCubed 0]

FYP

Last year Beltran had better numbers than Wells in the following areas: OPB, SLG%, HR, RBI, and VORP. The only real edge for Vernon is BA, and he may have a slight edge defensively. It's somewhat close, but I still think Beltran's better.

[Moneyball16 0]

Last year Beltran had better numbers than Wells in the following areas: OPB, SLG%, HR, RBI, and VORP. The only real edge for Vernon is BA, and he may have a slight edge defensively. It's somewhat close, but I still think Beltran's better.

Yeah im a Jays fan and I dont think its even close. Beltran is better.

[thehidden 0]

Let me preface this by saying I love Vernon Wells. He's the #2 CF in baseball right now, behind Beltran, IMO. He's the Jays' best player, by all accounts a stand up dude, and normally I'd love the prospect of keeping him around for his entire career.All that being said, this is a horrible contract.We don't need to commit this kind of money or so many years to anyone right now, not even our MVP. There will be a bumper crop of free agent outfielders next offseason, so this deal was completely unnecessary at this stage of the game. Even if Wells were to walk for nothing next winter, it would not be overly difficult for JP to find an adequate replacement, probably at a much lower price (assuming the market doesn't go even further completely insane next year). I don't see why JP didn't wait until at least the trade deadline this season. If we're serious contenders, then we make a run at a title with Wells this year, and try and re-up him in the offseason. If we're out of the playoff race, we trade him for a young arm and a prospect, sign a replacement OF, and go to war in 2008 with a better overall team, not to mention more spending money.We don't know all the details of the contract yet, so there could still be some hope. If the contract (read: the $18M/year) doesn't kick in till next year, I like it a little more. That would leave us some cash to potentially take a run at Zito (unlikely) or pick up a solid arm during the year via trade. If the contract is backloaded, I also like it more, for many of the same reasons.All in all, it's nice to see the Jays lock up a fan favourite and potential MVP candidate. I just really hope it doesn't handcuff the team from making other moves towards winning a title in the next couple years (pretty much our window at this point).

I can see what JP's strat behind this might be. Having a happy Vernon gives us a strong focused centre fielder who can lead a team in the clubhouse. You have players like Rios, and Reed Johnson comming off solid seasons, or in Reed's purpose, the girst time he's going to be completly incharge of LF. A happy OF with Vernon, Rios, Johnson is the best defensive OF bar none!JP probably took many runs at Zito and didn't want to bring a #1 pitcher into a #3 spot. Also it may be a great crop of free agent OF next year, but why go with someone who might not gel with your team when you have a proven MVP candidate in his Prime! This years pitching free agent market was ok, I have not looked at next years crop but maybe he's plannign on another budget increase, and more money to spend with all his Offense taken care of!

[mcpickl 0]

I wouldn't exactly call him sick. He is 4/14 in SVO lifetime and has not pitched as well the past few years as he did his first few. If the Red Sox are planning on him being the closer they can expect a lot of blown saves. Right now he looks like he might be the Sox closer with their terrible bullpen.

Couldn't be a more useless stat than save percentage for a pitcher who isn't a closer. Any pitcher who enters in a save situation and loses the lead gets credited with a blown save. So while Donnelly was the set-up guy for the Angels every time he entered a game with a lead he had a chance to get tagged with a blown save. He rarely had a chance to get the actual save because if he held the lead, in comes Percival/Rodriguez to get the save. So rather than get credited with a save in a good appearance and a blown save for a bad one. He could only get a blown save for a bad appearance, and a hold for a good one. Fox is on line one for you, they love useless stats.

[timwakefield 68]

Yeah im a Jays fan and I dont think its even close. Beltran is better.

Y'all suckas be forgettin Andruw Jones. His offensive numbers are on par with Wells and Beltran, and his defense is better.

[greatwhite 0]

Couldn't be a more useless stat than save percentage for a pitcher who isn't a closer. Any pitcher who enters in a save situation and loses the lead gets credited with a blown save. So while Donnelly was the set-up guy for the Angels every time he entered a game with a lead he had a chance to get tagged with a blown save. He rarely had a chance to get the actual save because if he held the lead, in comes Percival/Rodriguez to get the save. So rather than get credited with a save in a good appearance and a blown save for a bad one. He could only get a blown save for a bad appearance, and a hold for a good one. Fox is on line one for you, they love useless stats.

Well at this rate who exactly is your closer?

[MDXS 0]

Well at this rate who exactly is your closer?

It's December!!Let's have this conversation come spring training.

[mcpickl 0]

Well at this rate who exactly is your closer?

no clue, season doesnt start until April. could be Donnellykinda off topic anyway, i was just pointing out that quoting the SVO stat is irrelevant.for instance, before 2005 BJ Ryan was 6/18 in SVOdoes that mean he couldn't close? no it means he wasn't a closer then.

[pockets 0]

So the Giants signed Ryan Klesko for some reason.

[greatwhite 0]

no clue, season doesnt start until April. could be Donnellykinda off topic anyway, i was just pointing out that quoting the SVO stat is irrelevant.for instance, before 2005 BJ Ryan was 6/18 in SVOdoes that mean he couldn't close? no it means he wasn't a closer then.

I don't think Donelly would be a good closer. He's gotten worse every year since 04 and now has to come to a hitters park. He's a decent 7th or 8th inning guy, but the Red Sox need to do better for the closer role. It will be interesting to see who they go after or if they go after anybody. Mike Gonzalez would be a good fit, but I don't know who the Red Sox would trade for him. They want Coco Crisp, which actually might be worth it for the Sox.

[meservery 0]

I don't think Donelly would be a good closer. He's gotten worse every year since 04 and now has to come to a hitters park. He's a decent 7th or 8th inning guy, but the Red Sox need to do better for the closer role. It will be interesting to see who they go after or if they go after anybody. Mike Gonzalez would be a good fit, but I don't know who the Red Sox would trade for him. They want Coco Crisp, which actually might be worth it for the Sox.

sort of out of the loop, but what happened to papelbon as closer?

[Shimmering Wang 1]

sort of out of the loop, but what happened to papelbon as closer?

Starting rotation.

[mcpickl 0]

I don't think Donelly would be a good closer. He's gotten worse every year since 04 and now has to come to a hitters park. He's a decent 7th or 8th inning guy, but the Red Sox need to do better for the closer role. It will be interesting to see who they go after or if they go after anybody. Mike Gonzalez would be a good fit, but I don't know who the Red Sox would trade for him. They want Coco Crisp, which actually might be worth it for the Sox.

you've completely missed the point.and Crisp will be fine this year, a broken finger equals no fun swinging a bat.