Another Flaming Opportunity ....

[navybuttons 15]

huh?!?!

online poker is more random than live poker because there is every possible deck (order of cards) available every hand. i believe it's about 5.4 billion different decks. that means you could play 2 decks back to back (have the same hole cards, flop, turn, and river two hands in a row). the random number generators are not determined by time or by the previous deck.however, in a live casino, to some extent the deck (order of cards) is determined by the previous deck. Example: take a stud game where as people fold the dealer places there cards face down, four people go all the way and show down their cards. the dealer places each hand in the muck one by one and then places the deck in the automatic card shuffler.the automatic card shufflers are limited in their shuffling ability (they can only shuffle the deck so many times).a computer (theoretically) which knew the card shufflers ability and tendencies and also knew everone's door card and its order in the deck and the order of 28 other cards in the deck (before the shuffler), could probably eliminate between 2-4 billion decks (orders of cards) when the deck was pulled out of the automatic shuffler.thus, the deck composed by an RNG is truly random while the deck composed at a casino is not. so online poker is more random than live poker.

You know I win right ... give me solid math/scientific proof I'm wrong.Call a math professor ... do whatever you gotta do. I win I win I win.HahahahahMatt

it should not be about winning it should be the pursuit of truth. you are not interested in that pursuit. choose to view your disinterest in any manner, i view it as a short comming.

[WallstreetMSU 0]

You know I win right ... give me solid math/scientific proof I'm wrong.Call a math professor ... do whatever you gotta do. I win I win I win.HahahahahMatt

Give me some proof that AA has lost to JJ 10,000 times in a row. Until you produce that....you are wrong.

[BWToth 0]

Both sides of this argument are in denial. Yes is is Possible to lose with AA v. JJ 10,000 times in a row. The point about sample size is that the possibility of that happening is approaching 0 the more times you do it....1 time JJ has a ~20% chance of winning...and i'm not a math major but there is a formula that will give you the odds of it winning 2 times in a row etc. This number continually gets smaller and smaller. Haven't any of you heard of the theoretical situation where if you have an infinite amount of monkeys typing randomly at a keyboard for an infinite amount of time that eventually Shakespeare's Hamlet would be typed out in its entirety.

[omahahilo 0]

Give me some proof that AA has lost to JJ 10,000 times in a row. Until you produce that....you are wrong.

It was about a real discussion as to if I might be onto something but then you all had to prove me wrong so then it became a fight. IE: "100% Incorrect"I don't have to prove its happend ... just that its possible. It is. Can you prove it hasn't happend. I would say you are on the side of false information Sir.That fact that you can't consider that as a possiblity if funny and shows your limited ability to think. It is possible. I am correct. I may have a point and I'm done with this thread you can be as ignorant as you want.ByeMatt

[JMoney2681 0]

It is. Can you prove it hasn't happend.

Uh yeah....I got AA 4 time yesterday, and won twice...

[omahahilo 0]

Uh yeah....I got AA 4 time yesterday, and won twice...

Oh I see ... so now we went from 19 samples is too small to hey I got aces 4 times that won yesterday 2 so now 4 hands is enough of a sample. Just because it didn't happen to you doesn't mean it hasn't happened to someone.Look I'm sorry about your small penis but you lost this one, and the more you argue the more you sound like an idiot and the funnier it is.HahahahahahaMatt

[navybuttons 15]

Oh I see ... so now we went from 19 samples is too small to hey I got aces 4 times that won yesterday 2 so now 4 hands is enough of a sample. Just because it didn't happen to you doesn't mean it hasn't happened to someone.Look I'm sorry about your small penis but you lost this one, and the more you argue the more you sound like an idiot and the funnier it is.HahahahahahaMatt

he was using that example to show the flaws in your logic and the manner in which you jump from a small idea to a conclusion. no one is disputing whether or not it happened.the whole penis thing is a big dose of WTF? what was the point of that? there is nothing to win or lose because there is no question. there is an answer and you are debating against it.relax.

[omahahilo 0]

he was using that example to show the flaws in your logic and the manner in which you jump from a small idea to a conclusion. no one is disputing whether or not it happened.the whole penis thing is a big dose of WTF? what was the point of that? there is nothing to win or lose because there is no question. there is an answer and you are debating against it.relax.

I really don't have a conclusion yet. Just possibilities. But let me tell you something. Read my first post. I simply suggested an idea. And suddenly I had the whole FCP army screaming at me about how wrong I was. And I may be but I may also be partially correct. I had someone tell me I was 100% wrong and I have def proved that is not the case. I came here looking for a discussion about an idea and found myself the butt of every pre-teen jackass who knows everything about poker. How the hell was I supposed to act. I was much calmer than I should have been. If people would have tried to discuss this insted of dismiss it, they might learn something, and they might not but they would have had a good opportunity to learn. Most of the people on this site think that they have all the answers and they don't. If they did they would be down at Bellagio making millions. Not on this site. I know I have alot to learn and that's why I would never tell someone they are completely wrong, before alot of consideration on a particular topic. If you told me that AA was the worst starting hand in Hold 'Em I would consider it before dismissing it if that was my final decision. Maybe a little less dismissing and a little more consideration would help improve everyones game????And for the reccord ... I have def proved there is a question. If you can't see that I'm sorry. Maybe you should read through my arguement about it ... but at this point even if you saw my point you wouldn't agree to it anyway. You do not know everything if you did you'd be making money. Not fighting with me online. Mind you're own G'damn business.By the way if there is a .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance that AA could lose 10,000 hands in a row heads up then your "answer" is incorrect. Have a nice day.Matt

[stakman1011 0]

Omahahilo-You are doing something that is very good for your game, which is trying to figure out odds and probabilities. A poker player can't really be very good until he understands the math behind the game. That being said:You seem hung up on this notion of "it COULD happen." No matter what anyone tells you...you're correct! AA could beat JJ 1000 times or even 1000000 times...but that's why they call it GAMBLING. The odds say that if you get your money in with AA against JJ 1000000 times, you will win money.We, as poker players look not for "sure things" but rather "+EV" which means a situation in which we are "likely" to win money. Not sure to win money, just likely.Let me put it this way:Someone offers to let you play a game, they drop three pieces of paper in a hat...two say "you lose a dollar" one says "you win 1000 dollars." Obviously you have to follow the directions on the paper. Would you play?Obviously it's completely possible that you would lose, just like it's completely possible that with AA against JJ you will lose. However, and this is critical,"YOUR EXPECTED RETURN ON THE GAME IS POSITIVE"If you want to gamble, and poker is gambling, the best you can do is find situations with a positive expectation.Do you understand what I'm trying to say?Stak

[JMoney2681 0]

Oh I see ... so now we went from 19 samples is too small to hey I got aces 4 times that won yesterday 2 so now 4 hands is enough of a sample. Just because it didn't happen to you doesn't mean it hasn't happened to someone.Look I'm sorry about your small penis but you lost this one, and the more you argue the more you sound like an idiot and the funnier it is.HahahahahahaMatt

Ok listen here you moron with no hope, I was the one on here trying to help you're retarded miniscule brain. I tried to give you some poker knowledge but obviously you suck at poker and are hopeless. You do not understand simple aspects of the game so you come on here to ***** about losing. You even went as far as starting stupid threads like, "Im a donkey, I lost 16 out of 19 $1 SNG's, what am I doing wrong?" And "I lost to a flush draw on the river? What do I do now!?"The fact that you know nothing about the game, yet like to add pointless arguments like, "AA can lose to 27 10,000 in a row, it's a possibility" is just clownshoes. We all know that mathematically it is possible, just like it is possible for you to win at poker, they're just both not LIKELY. Maybe when you get your head out of your ass, and really read your posts and realize how stupid you are then you will win a game or two. It's hard to play poker when your head is lodged inside your ass...You can't even see your hole cards when you do that.

By the way if there is a .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance that AA could lose 10,000 hands in a row heads up

I like my chances, I'll gamble. That is what this game is all about. Chances with a determining level of analyzation.The chances of AA being beaten 10,000 in a row is so small, so I exploit that chance every time I get to. It's called odds. If the odds are good I stick around, if they arent, (-EV) I get away. Poker has luck involved, but the only way you can really play good is to play +EV as many times as you can.

[omahahilo 0]

Ok listen here you moron with no hope, I was the one on here trying to help you're retarded miniscule brain. I tried to give you some poker knowledge but obviously you suck at poker and are hopeless. You do not understand simple aspects of the game so you come on here to ***** about losing. You even went as far as starting stupid threads like, "Im a donkey, I lost 16 out of 19 $1 SNG's, what am I doing wrong?" And "I lost to a flush draw on the river? What do I do now!?"The fact that you know nothing about the game, yet like to add pointless arguments like, "AA can lose to 27 10,000 in a row, it's a possibility" is just clownshoes. We all know that mathematically it is possible, just like it is possible for you to win at poker, they're just both not LIKELY. Maybe when you get your head out of your ass, and really read your posts and realize how stupid you are then you will win a game or two. It's hard to play poker when your head is lodged inside your ass...You can't even see your hole cards when you do that.I like my chances, I'll gamble.

Thank you.Matt

[brad44 0]

not necessarilyif you flip a coin it's 50/50 for heads and tailsit's statistically possible for you to continuously flip all heads or all tailshighly unlikely but possible.I could say that out of the 19 you should have lost them all.Had you won them all, then what?Everybody complains when it's not "fixed" in their favour.Whenever I get a bad beat I remind myself of the times I gave them

This summer a friend was flipping a coin a canadian $1 coin, buddy is American. I kept calling loonie the result was heads for 5 or so flips, so we started counting and my friend flipped heads 18 more times in a row for a total of over 20 heads.

[omahahilo 0]

Omahahilo-You are doing something that is very good for your game, which is trying to figure out odds and probabilities. A poker player can't really be very good until he understands the math behind the game. That being said:You seem hung up on this notion of "it COULD happen." No matter what anyone tells you...you're correct! AA could beat JJ 1000 times or even 1000000 times...but that's why they call it GAMBLING. The odds say that if you get your money in with AA against JJ 1000000 times, you will win money.We, as poker players look not for "sure things" but rather "+EV" which means a situation in which we are "likely" to win money. Not sure to win money, just likely.Let me put it this way:Someone offers to let you play a game, they drop three pieces of paper in a hat...two say "you lose a dollar" one says "you win 1000 dollars." Obviously you have to follow the directions on the paper. Would you play?Obviously it's completely possible that you would lose, just like it's completely possible that with AA against JJ you will lose. However, and this is critical,"YOUR EXPECTED RETURN ON THE GAME IS POSITIVE"If you want to gamble, and poker is gambling, the best you can do is find situations with a positive expectation.Do you understand what I'm trying to say?Stak

I know exactly what you're saying. You just made my point. I know odds. I know that we're trying to put our money in with the best of it. I am just noting the fact that odds are not a guarantee that you will win. Variance is a *****.Yes, if you play proper cards in proper position agains a favorable number of variable you "should" win. And likely will.I am just saying that it is possible you wont. Variance may take that mathmatical edge away and you may just lose. You know? That's all I was trying to say and everyone else wants to argue about it.Matt

[mx957 0]

I know exactly what you're saying. You just made my point. I know odds. I know that we're trying to put our money in with the best of it. I am just noting the fact that odds are not a guarantee that you will win. Variance is a *****.Yes, if you play proper cards in proper position agains a favorable number of variable you "should" win. And likely will.I am just saying that it is possible you wont. Variance may take that mathmatical edge away and you may just lose. You know? That's all I was trying to say and everyone else wants to argue about it.Matt

Sorry your orginal argument was about it "not being as random as you think" This implies that it's rigged and not random. Unless you were trying to say that "not being as random as you think" is your definition of variance. Then you are still wrong. You can't tell when variance is on your side or not.Here is a direct quote from your second post in this thread Oh and I'm not saying that online poker is rigged. Its not. But it definately isan't as random as you may think.So yes you were implying it is rigged. You weren't going for the "I know Odds and don't forget about Variance" angle.

[WrongWay 0]

I'll jump into the flames.....My first contact with Poker, like tons of us fish, was ESPN. I see a ton of commercials. After a year of watching on tv... what the heck, I'll try one of these non-gambling (yeah right) sites I see advertised so much.So, I sign up at one of the sites, download the client, get my first chunk of play money chips and start playing.And, I have NO IDEA what I'm doing. I'm dealt crap cards... if almost everyone folds, I'll get into the hand. Why? Well, fewer people in the hand, the easier it is to win the pot, right? If I have good cards, I just limp in becasue I want a huge pot.I'm not reading the board to see straight draws, flush draws, etc. I chase crazy draws at hit very often.I'd sit at a cash game, and soo I was big stack at the table. I'd join a tourney, and usually hit 2 or 3 major suck outs on my way to the money.I joined a lot of freerolls that paid real money, but ALWAYS got busted out just outside the money. Seriously, 4000 people in the tourney with the top 80 getting paid... I went out between 90-150 about 3/4ths of the time.And, while I'm doing this I'm reading web sites and forums and I even bought Doyle's poker book.AND, what do you know. EVERYONE tells me I'm doing everything EXACTLY, 100% wrong. So, I change up my game as I go, but I still win.Without ever having to reset my play chip balance even once, I grew 1000 chips into 500,000 chips in less than a month.Then the calendar turned... It had been a full month of playing, and I still hadn't deposited any real money.Like a light switch, suddenly I can't win ANYTHING. I sit a cash table, I'm given awesome cards, get all my money in dominating.... suck out against me. I play a tourney, I'm out mega quick. I get UBBER rock, only playing super-primo hands... just means I sit there bored longer before I go in with a dominating hand, only to lose to a mega suck-out.So, my 500,000 chips drops to under 100,000 in about a week.The last straw was when I joind a Razz game at like 2AM. There were thousands of entrants, but at every table there were a bunch of sitters.... So, all of us at the tables pretty much left each other alone and just stole chips from the sitters.About half-way through the tournamet, a new player comes and sits down. He was INSAMELY lucky. This one player was entering 80% of hands, Betting hard with a pair and paint card showing with a couple cards to come, and winning EVERY hand he was in. And everyone he was betting into would have nothing but primo cards, then it would go to crap...Fortunatly, I was still in my avoid conflict phase as I noticed this one player taking people out left and right.... So, I decided to only go into the 20% of hands that he folded. Seriously, even if dealt A23, I was out unless he folded before action got to me. And I got primo hand after primo hand, folding them ALL.I was able to pick up enough pots from the sitters to keep afloat for a time as I watched this one player enter 80% of pots, pull crap up cards, suck people in, then bust them with amazing draws as their hands went to crap on the last three cards. Over and over and over again.Eventually, the blinds started to eat into me. I was still a ways out of the money.... Didn't look like I'd be able to hold out.... JUST in time, I got moved to another table.And at that other table.... another HUGE stack player going into 80% of hands, getting crap up cards, then making an amazing suck out while the other players hand went to crap... This player also won EVERY single hand he played.I'm not talking a sample size of 25.... I'm talking a sample size of hundreds of hands.Eventually, the blind ate me.. I'm out. I deleted the client for that site.A few days later I downloaded the client from a different site. I have not seen NEARLY the same level craziness there.

[omahahilo 0]

Ok listen here you moron with no hope, I was the one on here trying to help you're retarded miniscule brain. I tried to give you some poker knowledge but obviously you suck at poker and are hopeless. You do not understand simple aspects of the game so you come on here to ***** about losing. You even went as far as starting stupid threads like, "Im a donkey, I lost 16 out of 19 $1 SNG's, what am I doing wrong?" And "I lost to a flush draw on the river? What do I do now!?"The fact that you know nothing about the game, yet like to add pointless arguments like, "AA can lose to 27 10,000 in a row, it's a possibility" is just clownshoes. We all know that mathematically it is possible, just like it is possible for you to win at poker, they're just both not LIKELY. Maybe when you get your head out of your ass, and really read your posts and realize how stupid you are then you will win a game or two. It's hard to play poker when your head is lodged inside your ass...You can't even see your hole cards when you do that.I like my chances, I'll gamble. That is what this game is all about. Chances with a determining level of analyzation.The chances of AA being beaten 10,000 in a row is so small, so I exploit that chance every time I get to. It's called odds. If the odds are good I stick around, if they arent, (-EV) I get away. Poker has luck involved, but the only way you can really play good is to play +EV as many times as you can.

So the odds are small of that happening? Guess what, I agree. However, the odds tend to improve when you move more towards the middle. What do you suppose are the odds that you lose 51% of the time with AA in the same situation. Now add variance. So even with +EV and good cards in good position and good mathmatical odds you can still lose more than you win can't you? That's my point *******. Open your ****ing mind once in a while. You are not a GOD.

[ilovejulie 0]

Where's Actuary when we need him?I'm not the guy to explain this, but I know someone here can prove, using math, about 95% confidence level and statistical relevency. 19 is too small a sample size we know, but you can actually prove what the correct sample size is for any given set of parameters. I just don't know how to to it.... someone help....

[LongLiveYorke 38]

I just wanted to say that the people posting in this thread know nothing about statistics and are an embarrassment to mathematics in general.That is all.

I'm not the guy to explain this, but I know someone here can prove, using math, about 95% confidence level and statistical relevency. 19 is too small a sample size we know, but you can actually prove what the correct sample size is for any given set of parameters. I just don't know how to to it.... someone help....

Except you. You know what you're talking about.

[omahahilo 0]

MODERATOR PLEASE LOCK UP THIS THREAD. I AM TIRED OF THIS ARGUEMNT. I HAVE LEARNED MY LESSON. THEY WILL NEVER CONSIDER MY THOUGHS ON THIS AND I HAVE NO RESPECT FOR PEOPLE THAT "KNOW EVERYTHING" I WILL NOT POST IN THIS MANNOR AGAIN.LOCK IT LOCK ITLOCK ITLOCK IT

[LongLiveYorke 38]

You can have AA heads up and lose 10,000 times in a row vs any hand. Yes, you can. I don't care if you think so or not you can. I is very very very unlikely but it CAN happen.

Obviously

What I am saying is that you could put yourself in an advantage by the math but variance could very well cause you to lose money in the long run.Just because you have an advantage by the math does not guarantee you are going to win. Is it unlikely that you will lose more than you win ... by the math yes. But variance could very well beat you every hand. Believe it or not.

The above quotes make no sense whatsoever. The probability of something happening is the percentage of times it happens out of a large sample (as in infinite). Variance is not a thing that goes against math. It is a number that can be calculated from a given set of numbers. Basically, it means how far the numbers are on average from the average.Please, just take a class in Statistics.

[JMoney2681 0]

What do you suppose are the odds that you lose 51% of the time with AA in the same situation.

Um...51%....? You have to be a joke account. Seriously, why are you asking all of these stupid hypothetical questions???

[quadaces 0]

That's my point. I know this is a small sample but with the edge even 51/50 in these hands with 19 sample hands I should have won more than 3. Correct?Matt

Even if statistically its 50-50 you could lose the 1st 50 in a row and then win the next 50 and it would be even. Just cause its 50-50 doesnt mean you're gonna win the 1st lose the 2nd win the 3rd lose the 4th and so on.

[JMoney2681 0]

ObviouslyThe above quotes make no sense whatsoever. The probability of something happening is the percentage of times it happens out of a large sample (as in infinite). Variance is not a thing that goes against math. It is a number that can be calculated from a given set of numbers. Basically, it means how far the numbers are on average from the average.Please, just take a class in Statistics.

I was waiting for someone with a brain to come in here and help me, thanks Yorke.

MODERATOR PLEASE LOCK UP THIS THREAD. I AM TIRED OF THIS ARGUEMNT. I HAVE LEARNED MY LESSON. THEY WILL NEVER CONSIDER MY THOUGHS ON THIS AND I HAVE NO RESPECT FOR PEOPLE THAT "KNOW EVERYTHING" I WILL NOT POST IN THIS MANNOR AGAIN.LOCK IT LOCK ITLOCK ITLOCK IT

How old are you? Stop acting like a little kid. You came in here for answers and you got them.-Is it possible to have AA lose to JJ 10,000 in row? YES, BUT WHAT A DUMB ANALOGY-Do you think online poker is "rigged?" JUDGING FROM YOUR POSTS, YES, AND THAT JUST SHOWS HOW MUCH YOU KNOW ABOUT POKER.-Do you understand what others are trying to tell you. NO

[brvheart 1,752]

No. I just can't agree with that one, lol. Is it a mathematical freak of nature probability? Maybe so, BUT...Until it happens, I won't believe it, so no, it can't happen.

you are wrong... it obviously could happen... it would just be about a billion times MORE unlikely than winning the powerball jackpot. This is the only point in this thread that Matt is correct on. But this is the weird thing... is Matt now saying that his particular 'variance' is worse online? I have no idea what he's saying now.

[JMoney2681 0]

you are wrong... it obviously could happen... it would just be about a billion times MORE unlikely than winning the powerball jackpot. This is the only point in this thread that Matt is correct on. But this is the weird thing... is Matt now saying that his particular 'variance' is worse online? I have no idea what he's saying now.

I was busting his balls, of course it can happen. You can lose with AA a 100,000 times in a row too. I was messing with him. Read the whole thread!