Paul Wasicka Folding The Oesfd

[WowThats 0]

Most people on this forum do not have a financial understanding of how much $2 million dollars really is, or the difference between $2 million and $4 million. Until you're in the actual situation all we can do is whine about what should have been done.

[Shizzmoney 0]

I think the HUGE mistake in the hand was checking the flop. If he leads the hand plays completely differently.

He either has to lead at that flop, or check-jam all-in and try to get some dead money in there from Gold (and Gold's style of play is definitely the type who could jam on a weak draw). That would make the implied odds of hitting his draw even greater, especially if Gold also called (unless someone hit 2 pair or a set). I've done this play in the middle several MTT (average 328 people) where I have either won or finished high in. I was short stacked (average M around 7) and I would see suited cards before the flop, hands like Jc3c, 56s, 74s, A10s, etc. If I flopped any type of decent draw (pair + straight/flush, flush + two overcards, OESFD, etc), I would check-jam to get dead money in there to build a bigger pot (and a bigger return on my money). In looking over my results, I've done this play 7 times.....and I am 5-2, with 4 scoops and 1 side pot. And all of those 5 times, I have had a average placing of at least 7th, with one win for 2K which was a Full Tilt 24+2 Guaruntee.

Most people on this forum do not have a financial understanding of how much $2 million dollars really is, or the difference between $2 million and $4 million. Until you're in the actual situation all we can do is whine about what should have been done.

NOW OF COURSE, the differences in money are MUCH greater, so I cannot just simply throw that out the window as you make a great point. 2 million dollars is alotta fcking money. But it is all about your goals in entering this thing. Are you in it for JUST the money? Are you in for the glory (and nevermind the fact that if you do win the bracelet, you potentially get even MORE money in endorsements and such)? Obviously, being in the heat of battle would bring this factor in much more so, because it is so unique, even to poker. But it's like going for it on 4th and inches at your own 37 yard line when your ahead but the team you're playing has a great offense that you know will most likely score if you give them the ball back with 2 minutes to go at their own 30 yard line. If you make the first down, the game's over. (Equation, from my own point of view, even if I lose, I'm still a millionaire).I'm also sure that considering the payouts involved, you could factor that into the equation of playing the hand out + percentages of winning + payout differences (but I am no math whiz). The difference between 2nd and 3rd is $1,979,139 (which I agree is alot of money and would definitely make someone think twice). The difference between 2nd and 1st is $5,897,501.But the reason *I* would have called, is because the difference between 3rd and 1st is $7,876,690. Even in a scenario where one player had top pair with A10, and another had an overpair like AA,QQ,KK, and JJ; and they BOTH called......I'd still be a 57.25% to win the hand. Wanna replace the overpair with 43? You're STILL a 52% favorite. I believe the whole point of poker tournaments is to try your best to get the money in good, whether you are ahead or a slight favorite.SO if I did win, I suddenly would have a stack that could threaten Gold's ridiculous stack heads up. Even if *I* felt I could outplay Gold with just 10% of the chips on the table, I would do so knowing that I would at some point would have to get lucky (probably in a race) to make it a game again. If I have 40% of the chips, however, skill factors much more in my overall chances of winning. Yes, by folding and having 3rd place bust out I would be guarunteed heads up for the bracelet.......but my chances of winning would be less as if I did win the hand, because I would have more chips. Even Mike McD in "Rounders" said, "In heads up, the size of your stack is ALMOST as important as the quality of your cards".IMO, you are gambling 2 million (the difference btween 2nd and 3rd) to potentially win 10 million more (1st), with a guarunteed 4 million (3rd) in your pocket if you bust.I'd take that gamble anyday.

[Actuary 3]

Most people on this forum do not have a financial understanding of how much $2 million dollars really is, or the difference between $2 million and $4 million. Until you're in the actual situation all we can do is whine about what should have been done.

I know the diff between 4 and 6 is not worth passing up that chance to win 12.2 vs 4 is diff than 4 vs 6.what were payouts anyway, 1st wasn't 2x 2nd right?and are you quadaces roomate?You two always clap for yourselves

[ripptyde 0]

Two million dollars is a lot of money. We can all sit back at our desks and say it was a terrible fold, and in all likelyhood, it was... but we weren't there, in front of ESPN camera crews, and Johnny Chan watching on from the audience, with little hole cams for our cards... Did I mention two million dollars is a lot of money?

that may be the case...but there comes a moment in a tournament where you have to decide if you are playing to win.This was a defining moment in the biggest poker tournament in the world. If Paul was truly playing for the bracelet, he makes that call in a heartbeat.Sure 2 million dollars is a ton of money...but with 4 million already in the bag (thats a lot of money too btw) and the world championship on the line, he's GOT to make that call if he expects to have any kind of realistic shot at winning. Golds chip lead was already huge...not a chance in hell he has another opportunity that sweet to get within striking distance of him, let alone beat him heads up with an 8 to 1 stack disadvantage.You play a hand like 7s/8s for one reason....to get the kind of dream flop he got. If you can't pull the trigger for your tournament life in this spot then you might as well hang it up. He said on The Circuit that he was 'sure' that Gold was on a higher flush draw which I think is giving him waaaay too much credit considering the plays he had been making prior to when they got 3 handed.You can retire for the rest of your life on 4 million dollars...its life changing money in its own right. The extra 2 million is all fine and dandy, but the bottom line is he made the worst fold in main event history. I guarantee you he is going to regret that fold for the rest of his life.

[Shizzmoney 0]

I guarantee you he is going to regret that fold for the rest of his life.

Especially after seeing the river!Odds aside, we don't have this big of a thread if we don't see the Q river.It's hindsight, but you're right - you gotta gamble to win, baby.

[WowThats 0]

Everyone here is missing the point I am trying to convey especially "Acturay" here it is in laymen terms....If you never had $2 million dollars how do you place a value on $4 million dollars? To say you understand the difference is total hogwash... any person who has never had or does not have $2 million dollars will never understand what it is to have $2 million dollars or lose $2 million dollars. All you're doing is deceiving yourself.I agree with everyone the fold when it was made was questionable based on me/us Monday morning quarterbacking. I also agree once the Qs hit the fold was horrible, however if the no spade comes he is genius. Placing myself in the same position I would like to say I would have called, to say that is what I would have done is unrealistic and only dream on my/your part.

[Actuary 3]

Odds aside, we don't have this big of a thread if we don't see the Q river.

I don't like that thinkingWe post in strategy all the time and no one wants to see results.It had nothing to do with it.Seeing live, when PW told Gold what he had, I immediately thought, "BAD FOLD". Please don't think this is a results oriented mind set. rippy's last post was dead on.

Everyone here is missing the point I am trying to convey especially "Acturay" here it is in laymen terms....If you never had $2 million dollars how do you place a value on $4 million dollars? To say you understand the difference is total hogwash... any person who has never had or does not have $2 million dollars will never understand what it is to have $2 million dollars or lose $2 million dollars. All you're doing is deceiving yourself.

I'm an Actuary not an "Acturay"But I can't type either, so we'll let that slide.Ok..he already had 4 MM.I know after taxes I can live comfortably on 2.4MM until I die.I also know the +EV play was to call, especially factoring in the bracelet

[Slipshod 0]

The thing is, he owed me $4.5 million so he needed that extra cash.Seriously... I'm sure he is crying into his pillow over that fold... his big gold pillow.I'm not sure what I would have done there. Straight Flush draws are just so tempting... but so is a chance at $2 million dollars for folding.I probably would have gone in at that point based on the "I'm allready a millionaire" line of thinking but I really can't fault a guy for stepping aside and winning 2 million more.

[Actuary 3]

what would really suck for PW is if Binger had won the hand.Who's range would you think was stronger there, JG's or Binger's (sp?)THere's NO GUARANTEE he gets 2nd by folding.this really isn't that close considering he already has 4MM.

[Shizzmoney 0]

however if the no spade comes he is genius

Not really. He didn't have a made hand, but he still folded when he had the best of it.

I also know the +EV play was to call, especially factoring in the bracelet

AND the outstanding endorsement and chick opportunities that come with it.

[CobaltBlue 662]

You play a hand like 7s/8s for one reason....to get the kind of dream flop he got. If you can't pull the trigger for your tournament life in this spot then you might as well hang it up. He said on The Circuit that he was 'sure' that Gold was on a higher flush draw which I think is giving him waaaay too much credit considering the plays he had been making prior to when they got 3 handed.

Look...we've been over this. Part of the appeal of monster draws is the ability to get aggressive with them. In this spot, after he checks the flop, and Jamie pushes in, he's stuck being passive. He MUST have the best hand by the river to win. Yeah, he'll get there a good portion of the time...but not enough of the time against a better draw. He put Jamie on a draw. Jamie had a draw...just not the flush draw.From his talk on the Circuit, it sounded like he will not "regret it for the rest of his life." He's at peace with his play. He made a read and went with it. Even though the read was slightly off and folding was a mistake, he still had the confidence to go with it and to face the ensuing criticism.I was not particularly a Wasicka fan when the final table took place, but since I've found out more about him and listened to him on the Circuit, he seems like a good player and guy.

[Actuary 3]

Look...we've been over this. Part of the appeal of monster draws is the ability to get aggressive with them. In this spot, after he checks the flop, and Jamie pushes in, he's stuck being passive. He MUST have the best hand by the river to win. Yeah, he'll get there a good portion of the time...but not enough of the time against a better draw. He put Jamie on a draw. Jamie had a draw...just not the flush draw.

and sometimes when you need chips, you forego fold equity because your hand stand to be a favorite against a player like Gold. So you let the pot build and you don't fold. He absolultey made the wrong fold against the range of JG's hands. He was dumb to not lead if aggression could make him fold. Jamie was taking pots from these guys 3 handed. He had to have known JG would put pressure on.

[ObeyTheDog 0]

I don't think it was that bad a fold as you all are making it out to be.It wasn't a good fold, it wasn't a bad fold. It's definitely somewhere in the middle.To say it's auto-call is nonsense. NO WAY is it auto-call.If you sincerely put Gold on a flush draw, you are likely dead to 6-8 outs in the deck.He has 0 fold equity by the time the action gets back to him, he has only one decision, and that is calling off all of his chips with a read that Gold is drawing to the flush with him (a very reasonable read given how quickly Gold called). There is a mistake in this hand. When he picked up this massive draw, he planned to check-raise Binger. However, he should have factored in thsi 3-way pot with Gold that it was unlikely he'd be able to checkraise Binger and instead should have led out with his monster-draw "prepared to go all the way with it" if played back at.Leading out would likely induce a raise or fold scenario from both Binger and Gold. As we know, Binger would have likely pushed, Gold would have likely folded.Once he decided to check, and he was facing the all-in, I'd say his calling % drops to about 40%. About 40% of the time he should call, and 60% he should fold. The stronger he had a read that Gold was on a flush draw, the more he should be thinking about folding.I think the $2M did get in his head a little, but I think it was more of the fear of calling off your tourney life with only a few outs, rather than the plethora he actually had.Give him a break, he's a good player and didn't make a horrible fold.

[Actuary 3]

Give him a break, he's a good player and didn't make a horrible fold.

reads are overrated :PJamie was bullying. He had to put JG on a flush draw to have any reasonable reason to fold. He wanted to climb payscale and needed a rationaleWe're against a range ,not the worst hands possible always

[ObeyTheDog 0]

reads are overrated :PJamie was bullying. He had to put JG on a flush draw to have any reasonable reason to fold. He wanted to climb payscale and needed a rationale

We don't know what was in his head. That's what's in YOUR head. He probably WANTED to make the best decision he could make at that moment. It was LIKELY a variety of factors, including payscale and his read, rather than the tail wagging the dog.But nah, let's just nail him to the cross. That's much more entertaining.

[Actuary 3]

I got no comeback.Not much more to be said.He passed up his best chance to win the tourney.'Even if you give him 8 outs on ave.If you limit his outs to < 8 you can increase the EV of a fold; but there's no denying that folding kills your chances to win compared to calling.After you have 4MM.Winning should be the goalHe thinking giving up this pot helps his chance to win, is insane

[AcesUp46 0]

I think it's a bad fold. After Gold pushed, Wasicka likely put Gold on a draw. Hence, he had to discount his 15 outs since Gold could have a higher flush draw, same straight draw or lower straight draw that kills his outs. But, at that point, you can't discount your outs fully to either 8 or 9. It is also possible for Gold to have a overpair, top pair, 2-pair or a set. When you factor this into Gold's range, I would only discount my outs to approx 11-12 outs. Thus, calling the all-in would definitely be the +EV play.As poker players, we should always try to maximize our EV but I agree with a lot of the posters regarding securing the extra $2M. I think that situation was the test for Wasicka. A true poker player would only think in EV terms and call while amateurs would try to squeek in to the extra $2M.

[ObeyTheDog 0]

I think that situation was the test for Wasicka. A true poker player would only think in EV terms and call while amateurs would try to squeek in to the extra $2M.

You guys are harsh, that is so off base. I think you are looking way too much into this.There is so much more in the decision making process than the analysis given.If he thought he was a superior heads up player than Gold and could find a better spot than what he thought to be about a 40% win situation. Having 11 million to 79 million may be a mountain, but with blinds relatively low, a mountain he thought he could climb if he could double up once.He got to where he was going by trusting his gut the whole way. Why should he ignore his read just because he had a big draw? He made a marginal fold and if he called, it'd be a marginal call to gamble for the win. Not a HUGE fold. Not a HUGE call. It's marginal all the way around, and ANY decision he made could be argued strongly from BOTH sides.I personally would have gambled, but I cannot claim to be in the seat/decision he was in with the lights on and strong 'feel' he had for the particular hand. For anyone to sincerely believe and argue that this was a huge mistake is just plain wrong.

[Actuary 3]

If he thought he was a superior heads up player than Gold and could find a better spot than what he thought to be about a 40% win situation. Having 11 million to 79 million may be a mountain, but with blinds relatively low, a mountain he thought he could climb if he could double up once.

if you don't reliaze how passing up a 40% chance to to win that huge pot just so you can play 9:1 dog HU, then you don't understand the variance involved in HU. No one should pass that chance up. Also, Binger likely has a better hand than JG there.I realize you would gamble, and it's ok to say somoene else was wrong not too, especially if that's the logic you think he used to fold

[Tigerlite 0]

Horrendous fold here. I don't know if anyone has commented on this though, what about Gold's foolish all in. Had Wasicka done the right thing and called, then all of Gold's luckbox wins may have been for naught, and the largest collapse in WSOP history could have been a good possibility. Just bad play by Gold and Wasicka. Gold again dodged the bullet b/c Wasicka didn't have the stones to make an obvious call.

[mhoward29 0]

when does DN come in and say "I'd CALL!" ?????

DN doesnt come here anymore

[DeanK 0]

"You play a hand like 7s/8s for one reason....to get the kind of dream flop he got. If you can't pull the trigger for your tournament life in this spot then you might as well hang it up."I'd just like to say I totally agree. Why was he even playing a hand like that if he wasn't going to play after flopping BOTH a flush and straight draw. Gold was playing bullying, aggressive big stack poker. Why would he be so sure Gold had a nut flush draw in that situation? I don't see it.

[stan394 0]

Search for "oesfd" in google now and this thread comes up No.1!!!

[ripptyde 0]

awesome

[bascomeb 0]

Search for "oesfd" in google now and this thread comes up No.1!!!

i did find this pretty funny and awesome also