Woman Flunks Monty Hall Problem

[keith crime 8]

there were only two cases left not threei think her making it that far changes the odds a bit but i still think she should switch

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

Once and for all:Let's see what can happen...So, to conclude:Switching gives her a chance of winning of 33%.Not switching gives her a chance of winning of 33%.Obviously, this number is expected since basically she has a 1 out of three chance of picking the right case.

Once and for all: I disagree for the reasons stated below and in my other posts:http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...p;#entry1412822

[eggbert72 0]

This switch has absoltuely NOTHING to do with the MH problem. The contestant eliminated cases by her own choosing, as a previous poster stated, the show did not intentionally show her a low case. In LMADeal, your initial selection is based on 2:1 odds, after them showing you a GUARANTEED WRONG door, you now can switch, taking 1:1odds. In DOND, you are not guaranteed to open a small case first at all...It DID NOT MATTER which case she was to open AT ALL...though she should have taken her offer that was 5000 better than EV, rather than take a 125000 coin flip, and paying 5K for the right todo it. Her other offers were very lowballed though, uncharacteristically for DOND, I presume to prompt more action.There really need be NO DEBATE on this...its quite simple...

[dsavillian 0]

My first and probably only post on this forum:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deal_or_No_De...ty_Hall_problemWikipedia knows all. Quote wiki:

The Monty Hall problem gives the player a 2/3 chance of winning with a switch and a 1/3 chance of winning by keeping his or her case. However, statistical testing has shown that there is no advantage in switching in the Deal or No Deal situation. The player has a 50/50 chance of increasing his winnings by either switching or keeping his case.The Monty Hall problem gives the player an advantage only because the host always eliminates a losing door from the game. In other words, there is no randomness to the door exposed. It is purely based on the player's first choice. In the Deal or No Deal situation, the player chooses one case and then exposes another. The one exposed may very well be the winning case, leaving two lesser cases still in play. Therefore, there is no relation between the player's first choice and the case that is exposed. That breaks the Monty Hall advantage in switching.

[timwakefield 68]

She is completely retarded not to take the 880.

[runthemover 39]

Once and for all: I disagree for the reasons stated below and in my other posts:http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...p;#entry1412822

I like how someone uses math to prove their point correctly but you just say no no no.Classic case of "for those who understand, no explanation is necessary. For those who don't, none is possible."

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

I like how someone uses math to prove their point correctly but you just say no no no.Classic case of "for those who understand, no explanation is necessary. For those who don't, none is possible."

I said, "Once and for all" copying Yorke. In my posts, I used math and logic. Since then, I have clarified, but I said, at some point, that I was done debating. This "dead horse" has been beaten enough.Everyone seems to be sticking with their opinions, and that's okay with me.Should I send it to Marilyn Vos Savant to be the decider?Also, did everyone here give their opinions to the question asked at the below URL?:http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...showtopic=74225

[poguemahone68 0]

I said, "Once and for all" copying Yorke. In my posts, I used math and logic. Since then, I have clarified, but I said, at some point, that I was done debating. This "dead horse" has been beaten enough.Everyone seems to be sticking with their opinions, and that's okay with me.Should I send it to Marilyn Vos Savant to be the decider?Also, did everyone here give their opinions to the question asked at the below URL?:http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...showtopic=74225

This one has nothing to do with opinion, as it's straight forward. You seem like a fairly intelligent person, give it some more thought, you'll come around to the correct conclusion.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

This one has nothing to do with opinion , as it's straight forward.

When people disagree, there's a difference of opinion.

give it some more thought, you'll come around to the correct conclusion.

I did; a little more than three hours ago:http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...=0#entry1412716

[timwakefield 68]

When people disagree, there's a difference of opinion.

Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

[mrdannyg 274]

The standard "Monty Hall Problem" depends on the fact that the host has knowledge of where the "million dollar case" is (or rather isn't). If there's a chance that she can pick the million dollar case to be opened, then the monty hall paradox stuff no longer holds.

its funny, because i read the OP, thought to myself 'i don't think that's right, since there is no bias towards or away from the big case.' then i read a few responses and got worried, and actually thought to myself 'i hope LLY disagrees with them, since then i'll know i'm right.' i thought that was kind of funny. actually not so much funny as it was long. but i got in a simpsons quote, so no negative points.

[Actuary 3]

two cases left?one with her, one not.right?offered a switch?this is not a Monty Hall situationswitching is neutral EV.

[TheCinciKid 0]

$880,000 is basically the same EV as flipping the coin. Depends on where you are on the risk curve: are you risk averse or risk acceptant? When you're talking about the difference between $750,000 and $880,000 I would have flipped the coin and tried for the excitement of winning the million. Traditional game theory ignores the utility of the fun of playing the game, which explains why she took the

You're completely wrong here. It's not the same EV and here's why. She's already guaranteed $750k so let's throw that number out the window. If she opens a case, she's flipping a coin for $250k. The banker has offered her $130k not to flip that coin. So, she's gambling $130k to win $250k. That's -EV, though admittedly close, it's still minus EV. Absolute break even EV would be $125k. The banker made her an offer she shouldn't have refused.

[poguemahone68 0]

two cases left?one with her, one not.right?offered a switch?this is not a Monty Hall situationswitching is neutral EV.

100% correctLet's say we even back up a step to when there were 3 cases. This is still different than the Monty Hall problem. The Monty Hall problem relies on the fact that Monty Hall always chooses one of the "bad" doors. In the Deal or No Deal situation, the 3rd case was chosen at random.Several people have stated clearly why there is a difference, yet Dane won't face the facts.

[Kei 0]

It is advantageous to switch.She is left with two cases, one with 750K and one with $1M. She started with 26 cases. The likelyhood that she picked the $1M at the beginning was 1 in 26. So if she was to do this 26 times - pick a case and work it down to just two, only once would she have picked the $1M right the first time. 25 out of 26 of those times, it should be left on stage with the other cases and if she is fortunate enough to work it down to just one case left in that group, it's 25x more likely to be the $1M than the one she originally picked.

[Actuary 3]

It is advantageous to switch.She is left with two cases, one with 750K and one with $1M. She started with 26 cases. The likelyhood that she picked the $1M at the beginning was 1 in 26. So if she was to do this 26 times - pick a case and work it down to just two, only once would she have picked the $1M right the first time. 25 out of 26 of those times, it should be left on stage with the other cases and if she is fortunate enough to work it down to just one case left in that group, it's 25x more likely to be the $1M than the one she originally picked.

no.the chance the 1Mill is with her is 1/2Same as the chance it's not.How in the world could it not be ??????????????????

[Zach6668 513]

no.the chance the 1Mill is with her is 1/2Same as the chance it's not.How in the world could it not be ??????????????????

Hi.

[Actuary 3]

****************************see with Monty, we are given info that tells us that the 2/3 chance we don't have the Million, is all contained in the 1 Door he does not reveal, while our door remains 1/3. So the other 1/3 completely shifted to the unopened door that we did not pickin this deal game, the 1/3 chance from the case we picked, shifted proportionally to both remaining cases, making it 1/n or 1/2. It's 1/n the whole game, where n = remaining cases.if somoene who knew which case did not have 1Mill picked a case purposely that did not have 1 Mill, then yes, we should switch. it's Bayes THeorm stuff

Hi.

[Zach6668 513]

[runthemover 39]

Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

this was well placed. funny.also who'd have thunk that deal or no deal would bring out this much debate. althought it's not much of a debate since math has already proved what is correct

[Kei 0]

no.the chance the 1Mill is with her is 1/2Same as the chance it's not.How in the world could it not be ??????????????????

You have two cases, one HAS to have $1M in it. You made your initial choice with 26 choices left.Is it more likely that your initial choice was $1M or that the $1M was still in the pool of cases left on stage? On the stage of course. So doesn't that make it advantageous to switch?

[Royal_Tour 0]

what a retard

[troyomac 0]

Great Dane, I've seen you make a lot of posts that make you seem like a smart guy. And with this post I'm not going to try and make you seem like you're not, because I guarentee you're smarter than I am. That said, you're wrong on this one. Be a big man and admit it, there's no shame in admitting when you're wrong. It's not even really a case of mathematics (although some have tried to show you using math), it's a case of common sense. Read Actuary's posts.My vote is for common sense in this case. It's 50/50 period.

[Zach6668 513]

You have two cases, one HAS to have $1M in it. You made your initial choice with 26 choices left.Is it more likely that your initial choice was $1M or that the $1M was still in the pool of cases left on stage? On the stage of course. So doesn't that make it advantageous to switch?

You are wrong.

[Actuary 3]

You have two cases, one HAS to have $1M in it. You made your initial choice with 26 choices left.Is it more likely that your initial choice was $1M or that the $1M was still in the pool of cases left on stage? On the stage of course. So doesn't that make it advantageous to switch?

the specific case on stage now has a 1/2 chance of having the Mill.it had a 1/30, 1/29,...1/3...1/2 Just like the one with her.*********8Fergie "London Bridge"my oh myi need a towel.