Woman Flunks Monty Hall Problem

[keith crime 8]

God knows why but i was watching Deal or No DealThe cases went up to 6 millWoman had two cases 750K or 1 MillBanker offer was 880K which was above fair value but she turned it downThen she was offered chance to switch which again was the smart thing to doShe wound up with 750 KShe had nice breasts though

[showstopper24 0]

wow-that a lot.if your guarnteed 750k, i think a lot of people would flip the coin for the million

[fatman 1]

She had nice breasts though

Let's be honest....this is all that matters.

[showstopper24 0]

of course...not the 750k (although if she didn't have good ones, she could buy some now)

[Billy 0]

I was watching this too and thinking the exact same thing. I would've taken the deal in a heartbeat. But could you explain why it is smart to switch the case at the end?

[keith crime 8]

I was watching this too and thinking the exact same thing. I would've taken the deal in a heartbeat. But could you explain why it is smart to switch the case at the end?

because the odds of her picking one of the top three cases originally is like 3/however many cases there werelets say 1 in 10so switching gives her a 9 in ten chance of the mil

[Zach6668 513]

because the odds of her picking one of the top three cases originally is like 3/however many cases there werelets say 1 in 10so switching gives her a 9 in ten chance of the mil

Very poor explanation...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

[showstopper24 0]

i love wikipedia

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

I was watching this too and thinking the exact same thing. I would've taken the deal in a heartbeat. But could you explain why it is smart to switch the case at the end?

If I had gotten to the point of the $880,000 offer, I would have taken it.Here are the details of the Monty Hall problem:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

[Zach6668 513]

Very poor explanation...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

If I had gotten to the point of the $880,000 offer, I would have taken it.Here are the details of the Monty Hall problem:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Good post.

[eYank 0]

DN has a video blog about thisits very interesting

[showstopper24 0]

is that the one with his card trick?

[CrazyJoe 0]

this has nothing to do with the monty hall problem. since the big values CAN be opened at any point, the odds do change with every case opened. It didn't matter if she switched or not. in the monty hall problem they TELL you which one is wrong, there is no chance for you to take the big prize out of the equation, so the odds don't change.

[RodReynolds 87]

this has nothing to do with the monty hall problem. since the big values CAN be opened at any point, the odds do change with every case opened. It didn't matter if she switched or not. in the monty hall problem they TELL you which one is wrong, there is no chance for you to take the big prize out of the equation, so the odds don't change.

I concur. What makes the Monty Hall problem interesting is that the host, who has knowledge of what is behind the doors, eliminates one bad choice. He always does this. In deal or no deal, the host 1) doesn't know anything (I think), and 2) Even if he knows, he does not eliminate cases. So, unless I'm missing something, the odds are not affected by switching. I think I just repeated what you said. I do that sometimes.

[CrazyJoe 0]

I concur. What makes the Monty Hall problem interesting is that the host, who has knowledge of what is behind the doors, eliminates one bad choice. He always does this. In deal or no deal, the host 1) doesn't know anything (I think), and 2) Even if he knows, he does not eliminate cases. So, unless I'm missing something, the odds are not affected by switching. I think I just repeated what you said. I do that sometimes.

that's ok, the more times the same thing is said, the more likely people will actually read and try to comprehend it, I am quite shocked this topic had mulitple replies and nobody corrected the OP.

[_Great_Dane_ 0]

I am quite shocked this topic had mulitple replies and nobody corrected the OP.

There's nothing to correct:Banker offer was 880K which was above fair value but she turned it down - trueThen she was offered chance to switch which again was the smart thing to do - trueShe wound up with 750 K - trueShe had nice breasts though - true

I concur. What makes the Monty Hall problem interesting is that the host, who has knowledge of what is behind the doors, eliminates one bad choice. He always does this. In deal or no deal, the host 1) doesn't know anything (I think), and 2) Even if he knows, he does not eliminate cases. So, unless I'm missing something, the odds are not affected by switching.

But, when she got down to three cases, there was a 67% chance that the $1,000,000 case was one of the two on the stage; right?And when she was shown that one of the two cases on the stage did not have the $1,000,000 in it, that left the one case on the stage that had the 67% chance of having the $1,000,000 in it. She should have switched at the end when she was given the chance. The fact that Howie had no knowledge of the location of the $1,000,000 is irrelevant.For those who disagree at this point, there's nothing that I can say to convince you. I'm done. Bye.

[keith crime 8]

the original post wasn't wrong and it was more than 67% that she should have switchedpicking the one that isnt right is the same as the host showing one that isn't righther original pick has the same probability of being a million no matter what happens afterwards

[RodReynolds 87]

But, when she got down to three cases, there was a 67% chance that the $1,000,000 case was one of the two on the stage; right.And when she was shown that one of the two cases on the stage did not have the $1,000,000 in it, that left the one case on the stage that had the 67% chance of having the $1,000,000 in it. She should have switched at the end when she was given the chance. The fact that Howie had no knowledge of the location of the $1,000,000 is irrelevant.For those who disagree at this point, there's nothing that I can say to convince you. I'm done. Bye.There's nothing to correct:Banker offer was 880K which was above fair value but she turned it down - trueThen she was offered chance to switch which again was the smart thing to do - trueShe wound up with 750 K - trueShe had nice breasts though - true

You know what, I didn't see the show. I'm basing my analysis on watching it before. So, can you spell out exactly what happened?What I now understand is this: 1) She had her case, + there were two other cases.2) Another case was pulled onto the stage. Then what happened? She was told one of the cases did not have a million in it? This is obviously true, as only one case at most could have it, so at least one must not have it. Obviously I don't understand what happened, let me know.Also, I'm going to bed now.

[keith crime 8]

she started with 30 cases i thinkshe got down to two 750 K and a milshe was offered first 880K then the chance to swith her original case for the one case left on stage

[CrazyJoe 0]

the original post wasn't wrong and it was more than 67% that she should have switchedpicking the one that isnt right is the same as the host showing one that isn't righther original pick has the same probability of being a million no matter what happens afterwards

how so? the one she picked COULD have been the million dollar case, no? if the host shows her there is NO WAY it could be the million dollar case.obviously i'm not arguing the first point, the deal was obviously the best option. I'm only arguing the second point, it's 50/50 and it's NOT the same as the monty hall problem.

[RodReynolds 87]

Ok, stage means where all the models are standing with the cases. So, I did undertand correctly.

But, when she got down to three cases, there was a 67% chance that the $1,000,000 case was one of the two on the stage; right?

I agree

And when she was shown that one of the two cases on the stage did not have the $1,000,000 in it, that left the one case on the stage that had the 67% chance of having the $1,000,000 in it. She should have switched at the end when she was given the chance. The fact that Howie had no knowledge of the location of the $1,000,000 is irrelevant.For those who disagree at this point, there's nothing that I can say to convince you. I'm done. Bye.

This is where you are wrong, I think. You would agree that when there are three cases left, each case has a 33% chance of having the million, yes? Let's label case 1 as the one that the contestant has, and 2 and 3 as on the stage. So, combined 2 and 3 have a 67% chance of having the milllion. Also, 1 and 3 have a 67% chance of having the million. So, let's say she picks 3, and it does not have a million. By your reasoning we can conclude that 2 has a 67%. However, your reasoning also has to conclude that 1 has a 67% chance of having it. Obviously, this does not make sense.

[keith crime 8]

she wasn't shown a case there were two left the one she chose originally and the only one on stage that hadn't been chosen

how so? the one she picked COULD have been the million dollar case, no? if the host shows her there is NO WAY it could be the million dollar case.obviously i'm not arguing the first point, the deal was obviously the best option. I'm only arguing the second point, it's 50/50 and it's NOT the same as the monty hall problem.

yeah it could have but that was the one she chose out of thirty its exactly the same as the monty hall problem

[runthemover 39]

She had nice breasts though

this point was exaggerated. I was dissappointed

[CrazyJoe 0]

she wasn't shown a case there were two left the one she chose originally and the only one on stage that hadn't been chosenyeah it could have but that was the one she chose out of thirty its exactly the same as the monty hall problem

come on man, if that's true than you are saying that when you pick a case it has 1/30 chance of being a million, so if you pick 28 cases and none of them are a million then the one on the stage has a 29/30 chance of being a million. You HAVE to see this is wrong, please understand this.

[keith crime 8]

come on man, if that's true than you are saying that when you pick a case it has 1/30 chance of being a million, so if you pick 28 cases and none of them are a million then the one on the stage has a 29/30 chance of being a million. You HAVE to see this is wrong, please understand this.

that's right - read about it from that wiki linkher original choice is 1 in 30 nothing done after that changes anything