Money022 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 No such thing as luckPlus OneBut just for shits and giggles. As a wise man once said. "I find the more I educate myself on the game, the luckier I become." Err, something like that. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 Short term 90/10. Long term..100 skill. No player can survive without great skill in the long run.I wasn't going to reply to this thread until I saw thisEven long term there's a lot of luck.In fact the likelihood your total earnings deviates substantially from your expected earnings, assuming you made the proper play every time, increase with the more hands you play. Link to post Share on other sites
skimbot 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 No such thing as luckExactly. Link to post Share on other sites
pragtyro 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 infinite hands + infinite bankroll = 0% luck 100% skillor am I posting too early in the morning again? Link to post Share on other sites
Stylin_Fish 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 This is for tournaments only. It's 70% luck, 20% tournament structure and 10% skill. If you actually run into a good structure(rare I know) then you don't have to be as lucky and can let some of your skill show.+1 for me. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 infinite hands + infinite bankroll = 0% luck 100% skillor am I posting too early in the morning again? no, that's wrong.Luck is always > 0%Total Variance INCREASES in the Long Run.Probably the most misunderstood concept here. Link to post Share on other sites
....Ian.... 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 no, that's wrong.Luck is always > 0%Total Variance INCREASES in the Long Run.Probably the most misunderstood concept here.but std. deviation approaches (decreases) a constant Link to post Share on other sites
CobaltBlue 662 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 This, however, isn't the issue as you're not going to just push all-in at the beginning of every single hand. Having skill to lay down hands that were best preflop but got outflopped, get maximum value on goods hands, draw in the correct spots, etc. is what makes skill the only factor that matters long-term.I was just pointing out the ridiculousness of this comment...Considering the best odds you can have is 85% chance to win in the case of a dominated hand, the luck factor is AT LEAST 15%. Link to post Share on other sites
CzechRazor 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 I was just pointing out the ridiculousness of this comment...Great avatar. ...Power Glove. Ooooh./end hijack. Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 The only reason to even view a thread like this is to see if there are any hot chick avtars. Link to post Share on other sites
semaj550 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 I was just pointing out the ridiculousness of this comment...Fair enough, I thought I was doing the same.My apologies. Link to post Share on other sites
CBass1724 1 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 The only reason to even view a thread like this is to see if there are any hot chick avtars.El Guapo will rape and pillage the villagers! Until the 3 Amigos come to save the day!! Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 but std. deviation approaches (decreases) a constantIf you are saying StndDev per N hands, yes.I'm talking about TotalVariance ( and by default, Total StndDev ) increases with more hands played. It must. The Formula for Variance does nothing if not add positive numbers with each additional element. Over the long run the total your actual earnings deviate from your total expected earnings will increase. Total Variance.But your actual Win RATE will stabalize towards your true RATE over time.It's subtle, but a material difference in concepts. Link to post Share on other sites
....Ian.... 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 right, like i'm really gonna listen to someone named actuary in relation to numbers but seriously, its been a while since i took statistics so i defer. but i dont put alot of pressure on stuff like that, i just aim to put up winning sessions knowing that the losing ones come up here and there. and personally the term 'Variance' and the overuse of it in the forum (notwothstanding limit grinders) lends itself to something losing players tell themselves. flame on Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 El Guapo will rape and pillage the villagers! Until the 3 Amigos come to save the day!!We will rape the horses and ride off on the women! Link to post Share on other sites
....Ian.... 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 "Hold up your hat......higher! ......Higher!""Plethora?""What do you mean?""i think he means....""SHUT UP!" Link to post Share on other sites
CBass1724 1 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 "I suppose you could say that everyone has an El Guapo. For some, shyness may be an El Guapo. For others, lack of education may be an El Guapo. But for us, El Guapo is a large ugly man who wants to kill us!" Link to post Share on other sites
DUSTINFLYZ172 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 90 percent of poker is half mental. Link to post Share on other sites
CobaltBlue 662 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 Fair enough, I thought I was doing the same.My apologies.Ah. I misunderstood. Thought you were critiquing my critique. Honestly, your example with K2 is better than my AA vs A6 example. =) Link to post Share on other sites
IQCrash 1 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 Upon my re-reading of HOH2 last night, I'd like to change my original statement to reflect that luck, without taking into consideration whether the individual is wearing sneakers or boots is 32.5%. However, socks definitely play a role in the matter, decreasing the luck factor by 2%. Link to post Share on other sites
kennyg1966 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 when i win luck is 100%when i donk away money again 100%..lolseriously- 20% max! Link to post Share on other sites
wwmoon85 0 Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 pffft, the percentage is 100% luck..whoever says otherwise is just on a lucky streak. Link to post Share on other sites
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