Lost In The 650

[Bizzle 0]

From the WSOP 650 qualifier on stars yesterday. 23 seats, 109 left, I am in 11th, villian is in 7th.PokerStars Game #5435564155: Tournament #26878235, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit -Level VII (100/200) - 2006/07/02 - 21:33:00 (ET)Table '26878235 53' 9-max Seat #1 is the buttonSeat 1: tyrantp (2575 in chips) Seat 2: RockemSockem (14430 in chips) Seat 3: JMERCADO (4420 in chips) Seat 4: stunna954 (7390 in chips) Seat 5: mats1 (4300 in chips) Seat 6: IgotDnuts (18425 in chips) Seat 7: BillyBizzle (16185 in chips) Seat 8: Cerberus2 (3280 in chips) Seat 9: dazita (10710 in chips) tyrantp: posts the ante 25RockemSockem: posts the ante 25JMERCADO: posts the ante 25stunna954: posts the ante 25mats1: posts the ante 25IgotDnuts: posts the ante 25BillyBizzle: posts the ante 25Cerberus2: posts the ante 25dazita: posts the ante 25RockemSockem: posts small blind 100JMERCADO: posts big blind 200*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to BillyBizzle [Ad Kc]stunna954: folds mats1: folds IgotDnuts: calls 200BillyBizzle: raises 700 to 900Cerberus2: folds dazita: folds tyrantp: folds RockemSockem: folds JMERCADO: folds IgotDnuts: calls 700*** FLOP *** [Kd 9d 3h]IgotDnuts: checks BillyBizzle: bets 1500IgotDnuts: raises 3100 to 4600BillyBizzle: ???

[throwemaway 0]

I'm jamming that approximately 99.7% of the time

[gobears 0]

I'm assuming no reads.You'll have an M of 26 if you fold here. I don't think that you have to call this here as you're still in good shape chip stack wise and this guy can bust you.His limp and call reads like a PP so 99 is possible; maybe 33. I don't put him on a flush draw because of the value raise - he wants a call.In a Sat, it's all about survival; that article from P5 that someone published awhile back was very good. I would fold and not feel too good about it

[Bizzle 0]

I'm assuming no reads.You'll have an M of 26 if you fold here. I don't think that you have to call this here as you're still in good shape chip stack wise and this guy can bust you.His limp and call reads like a PP so 99 is possible; maybe 33. I don't put him on a flush draw because of the value raise - he wants a call.In a Sat, it's all about survival; that article from P5 that someone published awhile back was very good. I would fold and not feel too good about it

Remove 99, AA, KK, and AK from the equation-he had been raising a fair amount preflop and he would have raised any of those hands.Only read here I have is history-I have raised UTG when he has been BB the last 2 rounds, once I had AA that I showed (someone with KK came over the top), the other time I had TT that I didn't. After the second I said "igotdnuts I'm really trying to not mess with you" to make sure he knew I wasn't picking on him.

[Gallo 1]

Remove 99, AA, KK, and AK from the equation-he had been raising a fair amount preflop and he would have raised any of those hands.Only read here I have is history-I have raised UTG when he has been BB the last 2 rounds, once I had AA that I showed (someone with KK came over the top), the other time I had TT that I didn't. After the second I said "igotdnuts I'm really trying to not mess with you" to make sure he knew I wasn't picking on him.

More than likely I'd be pushing here, if you don't think he's got pp, there's only one hand that should worry you here, K9. If you don't think he has a set, then you have to push. He's probably got something like KQ or KJ.Why tell him that you're not trying to mess with him? And then you follow it up with another raise while he's on the BB?

[gobears 0]

Remove 99, AA, KK, and AK from the equation-he had been raising a fair amount preflop and he would have raised any of those hands.Only read here I have is history-I have raised UTG when he has been BB the last 2 rounds, once I had AA that I showed (someone with KK came over the top), the other time I had TT that I didn't. After the second I said "igotdnuts I'm really trying to not mess with you" to make sure he knew I wasn't picking on him.

Taking out 99 would make a big difference. Let's see what he puts you on: 1010+, AQ+. Let's add KQ-K10 to his potential hands that liked the flop. You fire a CB, he would raise with those hands on the chance you have 1010-QQ, AQ. Only other hands that I'd be worried about are junk hands like K9s, K3s.Both your stacks are relatively deep, so the implied odds are there for him to call with something funny.I'm ahead of K10-KQI'm behind 33,K9,K3He could also be bluffing/semibluffing hoping the flop missed you (only one high card on the flop) and is trying to pick off your CB. He's put in 5500 from his 18K+ stack so he's almost pot committed but not quite.If you take out 99, I think it's a coin flip whether or not to jam or fold. You could just reraise instead of jamming but you're pot committed either way.Since he is the only player that can bust you - I rate it a coin flip as possible hands that he has indicate that you are likely ahead.My judgement is probably compromised also as this sounds like a story with a bad ending...

[tskillz187 0]

I'm pushing this?

[Rocketwadster 0]

From the WSOP 650 qualifier on stars yesterday. 23 seats, 109 left, I am in 11th, villian is in 7th.PokerStars Game #5435564155: Tournament #26878235, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit -Level VII (100/200) - 2006/07/02 - 21:33:00 (ET)Table '26878235 53' 9-max Seat #1 is the buttonSeat 1: tyrantp (2575 in chips) Seat 2: RockemSockem (14430 in chips) Seat 3: JMERCADO (4420 in chips) Seat 4: stunna954 (7390 in chips) Seat 5: mats1 (4300 in chips) Seat 6: IgotDnuts (18425 in chips) Seat 7: BillyBizzle (16185 in chips) Seat 8: Cerberus2 (3280 in chips) Seat 9: dazita (10710 in chips) tyrantp: posts the ante 25RockemSockem: posts the ante 25JMERCADO: posts the ante 25stunna954: posts the ante 25mats1: posts the ante 25IgotDnuts: posts the ante 25BillyBizzle: posts the ante 25Cerberus2: posts the ante 25dazita: posts the ante 25RockemSockem: posts small blind 100JMERCADO: posts big blind 200*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to BillyBizzle [Ad Kc]stunna954: folds mats1: folds IgotDnuts: calls 200BillyBizzle: raises 700 to 900Cerberus2: folds dazita: folds tyrantp: folds RockemSockem: folds JMERCADO: folds IgotDnuts: calls 700*** FLOP *** [Kd 9d 3h]IgotDnuts: checks BillyBizzle: bets 1500IgotDnuts: raises 3100 to 4600BillyBizzle: ???

Easy push. You have the ace of diamonds to go with your top pair top kicker, so you know where the nut-flush will be. If he made a set of 3's and it holds, goody for him.

[therrinn 0]

Bizzle already knows my thoughts on this hand, so I'm just going to go Dan Harrington on all you guys saying he should push. Now, whenever you make a bet, there should be a reason.If he pushes, can he get a better hand to fold?I don't think any set is folding. I don't think any two pair is folding. If he pushes, will a worse hand call?I don't see how the big stack at the table will get involved in a huge pot against the other big stack who showed strength pre-flop and on the flop without a good holding. If bizzle reraises here its pretty clear he has either AA or AK or KK. If villain can't beat tptk, he's done with the hand. The only had that's bad that he could possibly call with is KQ, and that would be a damn loose call.What, exactly, is the reason that he would be pushing all in here?

[tskillz187 0]

Bizzle already knows my thoughts on this hand, so I'm just going to go Dan Harrington on all you guys saying he should push. Now, whenever you make a bet, there should be a reason.If he pushes, can he get a better hand to fold?I don't think any set is folding. I don't think any two pair is folding. If he pushes, will a worse hand call?I don't see how the big stack at the table will get involved in a huge pot against the other big stack who showed strength pre-flop and on the flop without a good holding. If bizzle reraises here its pretty clear he has either AA or AK or KK. If villain can't beat tptk, he's done with the hand. The only had that's bad that he could possibly call with is KQ, and that would be a damn loose call.What, exactly, is the reason that he would be pushing all in here?

The reason is because it's a raise situation and any raise other than an all in is bad. What is his line if he does not raise? Fold? Too weak. Call? This is ugly to me, calling checkraises in big pots with TPTK. And it allows Villain with his worse K a shot at 2 pairing on the turn.This could easily be a play to try and steal Bizzle's continuation bet. If his stack was 30k then he wouldn't have to push all in, but his stack dictates the push. He's pushing to prevent more cards to be seen when he is ahead, and to take down a sizeable pot, not for value. Of course if he gets called he is screwed, the same way hed be screwed if he raised a smaller amount and Villain came over the top or just smooth called.

[mk 11]

You know where I stand on this. You have a very comfortable stack, and as Andre said, survival is much more important than accumulating in satellites like this. Finding out whether or not he's making a move here will cost you WAY too much in terms of risk/reward. If you move in and get called by a better hand, you're throwing away a ton of equity. If you make it three bets but are willing to fold if he moves in, it's still a disaster because your stack will no longer be feared, and you won't be able to steal with impunity which is what it's all about toward the end of these. As others have said, the chances that he's making a move with a hand you beat here are slim since you are the only other stack at the table that threatens him, and he is also very healthy in terms of the overall tourney. In a normal MTT I move in, no question. In this satellite, however, I think it's a fold because there is absolutely no exit strategy when you're up against a better hand, and you'll be able to make up chips lost in this hand by stealing a few blinds and antes.

[Bizzle 0]

You know where I stand on this. You have a very comfortable stack, and as Andre said, survival is much more important than accumulating in satellites like this. Finding out whether or not he's making a move here will cost you WAY too much in terms of risk/reward. If you move in and get called by a better hand, you're throwing away a ton of equity. If you make it three bets but are willing to fold if he moves in, it's still a disaster because your stack will no longer be feared, and you won't be able to steal with impunity which is what it's all about toward the end of these. As others have said, the chances that he's making a move with a hand you beat here are slim since you are the only other stack at the table that threatens him, and he is also very healthy in terms of the overall tourney. In a normal MTT I move in, no question. In this satellite, however, I think it's a fold because there is absolutely no exit strategy when you're up against a better hand, and you'll be able to make up chips lost in this hand by stealing a few blinds and antes.

So basically what you are saying is...because you are smug and left after you lost with AK, you weren't around to advise me on the proper course of action and cost me 10k?

[mk 11]

So basically what you are saying is...because you are smug and left after you lost with AK, you weren't around to advise me on the proper course of action and cost me 10k?

Heh, yeah. Well, no. What I'm actually saying is since you know I'm 0/4 in this fucking thing, don't take my advice because it's probably worthless.

[Bizzle 0]

Heh, yeah. Well, no. What I'm actually saying is since you know I'm 0/4 in this fucking thing, don't take my advice because it's probably worthless.

You're saying this to someone who is either 0/7 or 0/8.I'm just glad that I worked so hard at all the 15+1 DSs, if I were down 4k in my quest to the WSOP I'd be pretty mad.*ducks while Andre shoots at me*

[gobears 0]

You're saying this to someone who is either 0/7 or 0/8.I'm just glad that I worked so hard at all the 15+1 DSs, if I were down 4k in my quest to the WSOP I'd be pretty mad.*ducks while Andre shoots at me*

Yeah, thanks for reminding me - it'll be 5K after July 16.Buying in directly into all those Bodog WSOP Sats sure panned out - I'm envious of Hoosier and Nutz...not only did they get the seat but the Bodog party as well.And I can count on donking more $ off as the WCOOP comes right after the WSOP...

[throwemaway 0]

so was it 33 or a flopped flush?

[Bizzle 0]

Yeah, thanks for reminding me - it'll be 5K after July 16.Buying in directly into all those Bodog WSOP Sats sure panned out - I'm envious of Hoosier and Nutz...not only did they get the seat but the Bodog party as well.And I can count on donking more $ off as the WCOOP comes right after the WSOP...

Yeah, I'm glad with the way I have gone about it.Although losing the 2:1 for the seat in the 160 DS is still a beat im trying to swallow.

so was it 33 or a flopped flush?

I made it 9k knowing I was calling if he pushed to try and induce a flush draw to come after me. He pushed and had K9o, and I was out.

[throwemaway 0]

Thats a pretty disgusting play pf by villain

[Bizzle 0]

*nods*Still pissed though, I could have laid it in various places.

[timwakefield 68]

Having not read responses, I would be afraid 99 or 33, possibly K9, but not as likely IMO. I also wouldn't be surprised to see somebody make this play with QTd, QJd, or JTd. I would fold to his check/raise in this situation, but if this was not a satellite I would probably reraise.

[iggymcfly 0]

In a regular tournament, it might be a push. In a satellite, I think it has to be a fold though. Look at it this way, not only do you know that you are the two biggest stacks at the table who are likely to make the money, he knows it too. Do you really think he's going to push a draw at you in that situation? No. How about a weak king? That's unlikely too.I'd say he either has KT-KQ that he's planning on laying down to a reraise or else he has two pair or a set that he's going all the way with. If you're right and he has KT-KQ, you win 9,325 chips. If you're wrong and you're up against K3, K9, 33 or 99, then you lose 13,785 chips for the remainder of your stack. Now is that a risk that you want to take with your tournament life on the line when you're in comfortable position in a satellite? I don't think so.