quiz question #7

[Erudis 0]

a lot of you guys are analyzing the cards too much. this is a heads-up tournament: it's not the cards, it's the circumstance.this is really a trick question anyways because the real answer is: damnit Danny, don't get yourself in this situation! At this point no hand analysis is going to help and you're gonna have all your chips in, one way or another, as a bit of a 2-card favorite (with 5 more coming) or a bit of 2-card dog (with 5 coming). Get them in when you have the most to gain, don't get run over, don't get blinded out. There is no such thing as post flop-play in your circumstance and if you fold and wait for good cards, The Magician will just fold in about .3 seconds and get another hand. Truth of the matter is, you're only going to get all your chips in the pot with potential to double up on Antonio's terms. Just do it now while you can actually do something with it if you win.

[Wlleiotl 0]

i call, why prolong the pain? sure you can auto push the next hand and probably steal, but that only puts you into this situation again. you've got to make a stand, your hand although its probably behind probably isnt dominated

[Emptyeye 0]

after thinking about it for awhile, I have to say Call.You're at such a massive chip disadvantage that at this point, "Probably behind but not dominated" is about as good as you're going to get. That, and mid suited-connectors are basically what you want if by some chance he has a big pocket pair.But I do agree that the proper answer is "Don't let yourself get put into this situation in the first place."

[jayboogie 0]

I call, Your at a point where you only have enough for 3 more rounds before you get blinded out, you have to make the move here, while you still have chips to do some damage with. you likely have 2 live cards to hit with straight and flush possibilities, yes your gambling here with probably the worst hand, but if you don't take this chance, you likely won't get a better spot, even if you pick up AA when you have 3000 left, that's not going to do anything for you, with 6000 left, it's move in time and your cards are probably live which is all you can ask for. Most likely your a 60-40 dog or around there and it's worth gambling in this spot. With my opponent moving in, I'd put him on AX, as long as his other card is not a 7 or 8, your in decent shape or possibly even a random hand, of course optimally, your hoping he has a PP of 6's and under.

[Aaron Beaudry 0]

I say fold 78 sooted is not strong, the chances of floping a flush is crazy and to flop a pair of 8's probably wouldn't do it. I say wait and try another hand because he is likely to call your all in with one over card too get rid of you so wait and see if you get a better hand and make him call you maybe he will fold and you steel a couple of chips. I like 10 8 better than 78 Either way it is 50/50 I've gone 72 off suit and pulled a two pair on river against pocket 10's so anything can happen!!!!!!

Ok so you are in the second round of the National Heads Up Poker Championship and are facing Antonio Esfandiari.  You've already lost a critical pot and are now sittinng with 7200 in chips to his 72,800.  The blinds are 600-1200 and you have the big blind leaving you 6000 remaining.  Antonio moves all in and you look down at 7  8 Some background:  Antonio has already made it clear verbally that he doesn't want to double you up.  So with that information you assume that if you were to fold this hand, there was a reasonable chance he'd fold his big blind on the next hand.

[jonnyhockey 0]

By laying it down now, you might send the message that you're not willing to risk your last chip without a decent hand. An allin steal next hand gets you back to where you were, but now he'll respect your allin's a little bit in the future, and you might be able to steal some blinds along the way.I say fold, but I also thought Iraq had WMD's, so what do I know. mp

[spacemonkey 0]

This one's right on the edge. The pot odds look about right if you think Antonio has two overs. But I think I'd go ahead and fold. The reason is that I always want to be pushing my chips in first or have the best hand (or both). It's probable that you're getting even odds here (a 3:2 dog and 3:2 pot odds) but that's not winning poker that's breaking even poker. Wait and try to pick up the pot without a showdown or for a spot where the odds are in your favor.

[oldadmin 0]

since i have a "lack of knowledge" i can't explain why but something about this hand bothers the hell out of me -- i want to call this one so badly it would bug me if i didn't -- just to see what happens (i suppose) -- but being as i'm one of those newbies sure, i'd default to the notion of 8 high not being all that great -- suited, connecting though but aside from the cards, there's something about this hand that makes me really want to call. i'll watch this thread and see how everyone's thoughts turn out on it - especially since the poll is nearly dead even. in my opinion (whatever that's worth) this is a tough call and fold.

[Briguy 0]

The poll being dead even is a pretty clear indication that this is not an easy decision. Any call is a crying call...you have to know that you're behind here despite the cards being soooooted, and any fold will leave you wondering if that was your spot. Bad situation, either way.

[rog 0]

I think fold:- It seems pretty likely you're the underdog in this one. In heads-up, you should be ahead 50% of the time, so 3 hands to catch something you like better is reasonable.- Suited connectors play better post-flop, and in multiway pots. Sure this is a great drawing hand, but I dont want to be drawing from behind with my last chip in a heads-up match. I'd rather get sucked out on so I can complain about it on the forum. - Yeah, you have to get lucky, but there's two kinds of lucky. One kind is flopping a big hand with suited connectors while all-in in a heads-up match. The other is folding suited connectors to an all-in move and picking up AJ on the next deal. If I dont get lucky, in the former, I'm done. In the later, I'm still here albeit on death's door.- You're about 2:1 or so with ANY two against 2 overs, so it wont be much worse than this 2 hands from now. You can roll the dice then if you feel like it.So yeah...lay it down

[Jubba 0]

i voted call. 7-8s is only a 3:2 dog to any two random cards (even over cards). A double-up the next hand would only give you 12,000 and you might even get a worse hand than 8-7s, like 7-3o. I would call and hope for the best.

[holman3rd 0]

I think fold:- It seems pretty likely you're the underdog in this one. In heads-up, you should be ahead 50% of the time, so 3 hands to catch something you like better is reasonable.

Given the pot odds and the wide range of hands that Antonio can have here, I don't think you're that big of a dog. That was part of my earlier reasoning for calling. As for waiting 3 hands, I understand the logic there, but the problem is that you'll be getting blinded down and have almost nothing left when you peak at that 3rd hand. Doubling up won't mean as much 3 hands from now.

- Suited connectors play better post-flop, and in multiway pots. Sure this is a great drawing hand, but I dont want to be drawing from behind with my last chip in a heads-up match. I'd rather get sucked out on so I can complain about it on the forum.

This is do to implied odds, which are not relevant in this hand. Your odds are pots odds here, and you know you're either gonna double up or go home. Part of my earlier reasoning for calling was BECAUSE this is a great drawing hand. You likely have 2 live cards and straight/flush possibilities.

- Yeah, you have to get lucky, but there's two kinds of lucky. One kind is flopping a big hand with suited connectors while all-in in a heads-up match. The other is folding suited connectors to an all-in move and picking up AJ on the next deal. If I dont get lucky, in the former, I'm done. In the later, I'm still here albeit on death's door.

You just made my argument. You may catch a better hand "later" but you won't have a enough chips left for it to make a difference.

- You're about 2:1 or so with ANY two against 2 overs, so it wont be much worse than this 2 hands from now. You can roll the dice then if you feel like it.So yeah...lay it down

I definitely feel like rolling the bones here.

[rog 0]

Holman...I see where you're coming from, but here's my rebuttal:- Waiting is not as bad as it might seem. If the earlier poster is correct, this hand is 50-50 versus 1 random hand. AE is either trying to steal with any 2 (not likely given that DN believes him when he says he aint going to double you up), so you have to believe he's on a hand you're a dog to. While you're right, implied odds dont factor in, pot odds mean nothing here as well since you're tournament life is at stake. Fact is you're a dog, and a call likely sends you home.- Given that a blind steal next hand is likely, this hand and next, taken together is a push, getting you to a third hand with the stack situation unchanged.- A better hand on the next deal is 50% likely. Needing to wait 3 hands for better cards is actually somewhat unlikely...1/2 chance of seeing better cards next hand. 3/4 in the next two hands, and 7/8 in the next 3 hands. I used 3 hands conservatively, but you can reasonably expect to see a better hand in 2, and you are even money to see better cards onthe next deal.Maybe it just comes down to style. I like to fight and claw my way back in these situations. In heads-up you dont have to wait long to get your chips in with the best of it, so even as short as I am now, that's what I'm waiting to do.Caveats: if AE has been bullying a lot, maybe it's time to make a stand with anything. Also, if blinds are going up in the next hand or two, you have to move now. Other than that, I stand by fold.

[holman3rd 0]

Holman...I see where you're coming from, but here's my rebuttal:- Waiting is not as bad as it might seem. If the earlier poster is correct, this hand is 50-50 versus 1 random hand. AE is either trying to steal with any 2 (not likely given that DN believes him when he says he aint going to double you up), so you have to believe he's on a hand you're a dog to. While you're right, implied odds dont factor in, pot odds mean nothing here as well since you're tournament life is at stake. Fact is you're a dog, and a call likely sends you home.- Given that a blind steal next hand is likely, this hand and next, taken together is a push, getting you to a third hand with the stack situation unchanged.- A better hand on the next deal is 50% likely. Needing to wait 3 hands for better cards is actually somewhat unlikely...1/2 chance of seeing better cards next hand. 3/4 in the next two hands, and 7/8 in the next 3 hands. I used 3 hands conservatively, but you can reasonably expect to see a better hand in 2, and you are even money to see better cards onthe next deal.Maybe it just comes down to style. I like to fight and claw my way back in these situations. In heads-up you dont have to wait long to get your chips in with the best of it, so even as short as I am now, that's what I'm waiting to do.Caveats: if AE has been bullying a lot, maybe it's time to make a stand with anything. Also, if blinds are going up in the next hand or two, you have to move now. Other than that, I stand by fold.

Points taken. Compelling arguments on both sides of this. As usually, I'm sure Daniel's answer is highly anticipated.

[jayboogie 0]

i wouldnt put my opponent on definitely having a legitimate hand here, it's probably marginal really as he wants to take your blind without a showdown. I don't think 78 suited is that far behind here. If Antonio actually had a legitimate hand, he'd want to trap with it here in this situation knowing you would be desperate to try and double up. The odds are your next hand will be just as bad as this one, I think you need to make a stand here for any shot of winning the match. Your already at a 10:1 chip disadvantage and the blinds are already high. I don't really think you have anything to lose by gambling here.

[nitrolife 0]

- Given that a blind steal next hand is likely- A better hand on the next deal is 50% likely.Maybe it just comes down to style. I like to fight and claw my way back in these situations. I

What if next hand AE looks down at AA? Or any paint? Or...I have no clue where you came up with a 50% figure of drawing a better hand next hand........THIS doubleup pays more.You like to claw your way back, and you might be very good at it, but you are making it harder on yourself. Face facts, it is very VERY unlikely to come back from this scenario and win. By folding you lose 1200 that could have been doubled up...that does not happen "next" hand because that money is gone, and the "next" hand might be worse than this one.In this situation an old saying comes to mind. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush.........You have a hand that is likely an underdog, but it is MUCH better than the next random hand. 7 8s is a decent fighting hand when you are short.What do you do if you fold and get 7-2os next hand and AE has J-T or AK or whatever. You can't survive another fold, and now you have less money to win even if you doubleup.People here have studied the hand WAY too much. You are down 10 to 1 in chips and get one of the absolute best drawing hands against any 2 cards........CALL!

[rog 0]

I have no clue where you came up with a 50% figure of drawing a better hand next hand........THIS doubleup pays more.

Based on an earlier assertion by someone else that 87s is 50-50 against random cards heads-up. If this is true (not my fact, but my argument relies on it being true), then it should be the median hand. Half of all possible hands to get next deal should be better than it. Half should be worse.

You like to claw your way back, and you might be very good at it, but you are making it harder on yourself. Face facts, it is very VERY unlikely to come back from this scenario and win. By folding you lose 1200 that could have been doubled up...that does not happen "next" hand because that money is gone, and the "next" hand might be worse than this one.

I like to...doesn't mean I'm very good at it. I use it in small buy-in SNGs if I'm down near the bubble, and typically make the payout doing so, but haven't won where I've been down that much yet.

In this situation an old saying comes to mind. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush.........You have a hand that is likely an underdog, but it is MUCH better than the next random hand. 7 8s is a decent fighting hand when you are short.

It isn't MUCH better in terms of it's ability to win. Statistically, it should be equal. I suppose it is better in that doubling up now with an average hand is better than doubling up later with fewer chips and a stronger hand.

What do you do if you fold and get 7-2os next hand and AE has J-T or AK or whatever. You can't survive another fold, and now you have less money to win even if you doubleup.

If the fates are out to get you there's not much you can do. If you draw average or worse cards a bunch of times in a row when shortstacked facing large blinds, then you're pretty much screwed. AE is no less likely to be holding AK right now than next hand. Unless his all-in tells you something I dont know, I think not knowing what he's holding, I'd rather be putting him to the decision 72o is 2:1 dog vs AKo. 87s is 3:2. I would push all-in with this hand, but I dont like calling the all-in. It's a big gamble either way.

People here have studied the hand WAY too much. You are down 10 to 1 in chips and get one of the absolute best drawing hands against any 2 cards........CALL!

You may be right. I dont have as much experience as most on this forum, but I'm not convinced yet.

[holman3rd 0]

I'm not going to elaborate on the reasoning I've already posted about (for those that don't know, I vote Call).But, I would like to add an additional thought. For those that advocate folding, it is important to realize that as our stack gets smaller and smaller, Antonio is likely to call us with any two. While it may be argued that we're likely not better than a coin flip here, chances are that if you get a big hand on the very next hand, you might only get called if Antonio picks up a strong hand has well.On subsequent hands, your stack is so low that he'll call with any two, and even if you double up, it won't make much difference--essentially, it will put you back to where you are now.Let me say this another way. Stealing blinds on subsequent hands won't build a chip lead for you. Yes, it will keep you on life support, but if you have any type of reasonable chip stack, Antonio won't call unless he's pretty sure he's not a huge dog. He'll call with any two when your stack is hopelessly low b/c a double up won't hurt him.With this stack, you have to double up to get back in it. Trying to steal blinds to stay afloat and catch a big hand is not the best approach, IMO (solely b/c you probably won't get doubled up when you do catch a big hand).I'm sure I'm all over the place with this thought. Sorry I can't articulate it better.

[Bertuzzi 0]

I think I would have to call here.Your on the short stack you have to catch up. You have to think a guy like Antonio he is gonna want to push you around in his current chip position. He is probably going All in with A-? or K-7 he knows those are ok hands heads up. In all honesty can you think he is holding a pocket pair? I mean yes it does happen in heads up, but not to often, and if he did get a pocket pair especially a high one (Jacks or better) he isn't gonna push all in.... he's gonna let you see a flop. So your holding suited connectors, you can draw to alot of things. I think its a safe call, at best I would assume he is holding one over card, whcih yes is good enough to win, but sometimes you gotta put your balls on the chopping block. You might miss completely and only hold 8 high at the end of it all, but you could also hold 2 pair or a straight hell even a straight flush (in magic land) .Anyways. I think its a good call, not necesarily an easy one but a good one.

[augmented 0]

i honestly think it does not matter; since the decision is so close i think that you have to call. 6k in chips leaves you no room to really do anything, so you just have to hope for the best, hope he has A5 or 33. if you double up, you have 14k in chips and now you can do a little "playing". with just 6k, its all in or fold, all in or fold, and its not really gonna get easier. call and hope for the best.

[mattb5 0]

I think it is correct to gamble here if you want any chance to win this match. Yes, you only have 8 high but suited connectors are a good drawing hand......this would be the biggest possible pot u could win with your stack so low, I think you have to gamble here. I am not really concerned about what Antonio has got...I mean if you were Antonio in this situation, you would want to put the pressure on the short-stack..you want the short-stack to fold the drawing hands that can beat his queen or king high. Only hands I am worried about are pocekt 88, 77, or two diamonds bigger than mine. But even if this is not the correct play mathematically, I think it's the best play if you want to give your self a chance to win.

[ice0000 0]

I would call because I want to win. He could have anything and I can't afford to fall any further behind. Besides, you shouldn't believe everything your opponent says.

[ThePokerGeek 0]

After reading everyone's posts, I'm changing my answer to call. A guy can admit he thinks he's wrong.Of course, Daniel's gonna come back and say the answer's fold. -PokerGeek

[Wilderness 0]

After reading everyone's posts, I'm changing my answer to call. A guy can admit he thinks he's wrong.Of course, Daniel's gonna come back and say the answer's fold. -PokerGeek

What you should have done was just make a post saying that your answer is to call (most people won't notice you posted twice) ... then, no matter what Daniel says you can claim to be right 8)

[ThePokerGeek 0]

Good point! A bit late to try and pull it off unnoticed though. -PokerGeek