stock market thread

[dms26 3]

I always hear people mention Transocean, Baker Hughes, Diamond Offshore Drilling as some of the best (RIG BHI DO) - but I went with an oil services ETF for this. Powershares Oil & Gas Services - Symbol PXJTop 10 holdings Company Symbol % AssetsDIAMOND OFFSHORE DRL DO 5.06HALLIBURTON CO HAL 5.1HELMERICH PAYNE HP 3.45MCDERMOTT INT PANAMA MDR 4.87NATL OILWELL VARCO NOV 4.46NOBLE CORP NE 4.6OIL STATES INTL INC OIS 3.54SCHLUMBERGER LTD SLB 4.51SMITH INTL INC SII 4.9TRANSOCEAN INC RIG 4.99I bought a half position of this at 30 not too long ago - it's been up pretty consistently. I might buy more today on this pullback..but I also wonder if Oil will take a short term hit/correction allowing me to get in on some more cheaper.

I had one of these for oil a while back (IYE) which is very heavy Exxon, Conoco Phillips and Chevron. It did really well but I wouldn't buy into right now.

[Yoda 1]

I had one of these for oil a while back (IYE) which is very heavy Exxon, Conoco Phillips and Chevron. It did really well but I wouldn't buy into right now.

I'm with ya - I wouldn't chase Exxon and Conoco going forward either...but for reasons previously discussed I think Oil Services continues up well into the future regardless of gas prices. Prices don't hurt Oil Services, it just makes more companies want to find more oil.

[dms26 3]

I'm with ya - I wouldn't chase Exxon and Conoco going forward either...but for reasons previously discussed I think Oil Services continues up well into the future regardless of gas prices. Prices don't hurt Oil Services, it just makes more companies want to find more oil.

Yeah I agree, I like the XTO's CHK's, ect right now more than the huge oil companies. I don't have any offshore oil services right now but I do have HAL. The oil service companies will also be able to charge higher daily rates as the price of oil increases.

[nutzbuster 7]

I always hear people mention Transocean, Baker Hughes, Diamond Offshore Drilling as some of the best (RIG BHI DO) - but I went with an oil services ETF for this. Powershares Oil & Gas Services - Symbol PXJTop 10 holdings Company Symbol % AssetsDIAMOND OFFSHORE DRL DO 5.06HALLIBURTON CO HAL 5.1HELMERICH PAYNE HP 3.45MCDERMOTT INT PANAMA MDR 4.87NATL OILWELL VARCO NOV 4.46NOBLE CORP NE 4.6OIL STATES INTL INC OIS 3.54SCHLUMBERGER LTD SLB 4.51SMITH INTL INC SII 4.9TRANSOCEAN INC RIG 4.99I bought a half position of this at 30 not too long ago - it's been up pretty consistently. I might buy more today on this pullback..but I also wonder if Oil will take a short term hit/correction allowing me to get in on some more cheaper.-----------------Where are our Visa holders? Getting worried/selling or backing up the truck? Strictly technical/chart speaking it could find support at 75, if it doesn't the next support level is around 70. RSI is the lowest I've seen it since IPO - not reading Oversold yet, but it was overbought for the longest time so this was inevitable.When can the IPO banks unload their shares? I wonder if that is a part of this.----------------I am also eyeing XME - Materials and Mining ETF. It isn't heavy in Gold/Copper type mining like you might expect - this has a much bigger focus on Steel and Coal which is obviously en fuego and demand is not going down any time soon.

This is the only area I like to use ETF's, this is a good one right now.

mucho gracias.BTW, since I am an Oil commodities moron, how much higher can Oil go?Why is it so high, other than the common "traded with USA dollars, China", reasons. I know something bigger is pushing this.We are at risk of sending this country into a depression like cycle and I know oil can't keep going up forever. wtf gives and why is no one doing anything about it???

[Yoda 1]

mucho gracias.BTW, since I am an Oil commodities moron, how much higher can Oil go?Why is it so high, other than the common "traded with USA dollars, China", reasons. I know something bigger is pushing this.We are at risk of sending this country into a depression like cycle and I know oil can't keep going up forever. wtf gives and why is no one doing anything about it???

Discussion about this on the stock forum I frequent...I think this guy summed it up best.

This question always gets some emotional responses, but it is key to remember what drives crude prices in the first place.Sure supply and demand is the main driver and is probably 60-80% of the price at any given time.Speculation accounts for a significant piece as well, but is variable and difficult to quantify. Currently it appears to represent a higher than historical average percentage of the price, and could be as high as 30% at current levels.The third piece of the puzzle is the currency the commodity is denominated in, currently the USD, which has been in a pronounced downtrend. Currently supply is pretty close to maximum output by most estimates, with only a few percent reserve capacity. Demand is dominated by US consumption which has been level to slightly lower for some time, but increasing demand out of China and India mainly, and the third world generally, is outpacing the slight reduction in domestic demand. This trend will only become more pronounced going forward by all estimates I am aware of, thus the upward pressure on the price from the basic economics of the commodity.Speculation is based on the belief that the conditions driving the price are dynamic. We can all make a case for increased demand out of the aforementioned regions, they are growing and growth requires nourishment, in our modern world that nourishment is crude and the downstream products based upon it. Then there is the political instability in the producer countries, we are so precariously balanced in supply versus demand that a kidnapping in Nigeria, or a pipeline fire, or a threat of supply reductions from some Sheik, creates a panic in the market which feeds upon itself raising the price. And like the can of worms once opened that can only be put back in a bigger can, the price once raised cannot go all the way back to previous levels (this is also known as the up like a rocket, down like a feather theory). Currency is the only piece I would be making a case for a downside influence on the crude price going forward, now that the FOMC is in the final phase of lowering the Fed Funds Rate I am bullish on the greenback in the 6mo to 2yr timeframe, but this unfortunately is the least influential of my three factors.So as roads and infrastructure continue to expand in the world, and a rapidly increasing middle class arises in the countries with the largest populations, is a 20% increase in demand so far fetched? 40%? If the demand increases 20% and the speculators foresee 40% at some future time $150 to $200/bbl seems not only possible but probable.Anybody care to make a case for decreased demand worldwide, or a reduction in the influence speculators have on the price?I would think $200/bbl by this time next year is realistic, but I would be unwinding long positions above $160 , or protecting long positions with leveraged short positions.

[nutzbuster 7]

Yoda:forwardDiscussion about this on the stock forum I frequent...I think this guy summed it up best.QUOTE(aiki14;109135)This question always gets some emotional responses, but it is key to remember what drives crude prices in the first place.Sure supply and demand is the main driver and is probably 60-80% of the price at any given time.Speculation accounts for a significant piece as well, but is variable and difficult to quantify. Currently it appears to represent a higher than historical average percentage of the price, and could be as high as 30% at current levels.The third piece of the puzzle is the currency the commodity is denominated in, currently the USD, which has been in a pronounced downtrend. Currently supply is pretty close to maximum output by most estimates, with only a few percent reserve capacity. Demand is dominated by US consumption which has been level to slightly lower for some time, but increasing demand out of China and India mainly, and the third world generally, is outpacing the slight reduction in domestic demand. This trend will only become more pronounced going forward by all estimates I am aware of, thus the upward pressure on the price from the basic economics of the commodity.Speculation is based on the belief that the conditions driving the price are dynamic. We can all make a case for increased demand out of the aforementioned regions, they are growing and growth requires nourishment, in our modern world that nourishment is crude and the downstream products based upon it. Then there is the political instability in the producer countries, we are so precariously balanced in supply versus demand that a kidnapping in Nigeria, or a pipeline fire, or a threat of supply reductions from some Sheik, creates a panic in the market which feeds upon itself raising the price. And like the can of worms once opened that can only be put back in a bigger can, the price once raised cannot go all the way back to previous levels (this is also known as the up like a rocket, down like a feather theory). Currency is the only piece I would be making a case for a downside influence on the crude price going forward, now that the FOMC is in the final phase of lowering the Fed Funds Rate I am bullish on the greenback in the 6mo to 2yr timeframe, but this unfortunately is the least influential of my three factors.So as roads and infrastructure continue to expand in the world, and a rapidly increasing middle class arises in the countries with the largest populations, is a 20% increase in demand so far fetched? 40%? If the demand increases 20% and the speculators foresee 40% at some future time $150 to $200/bbl seems not only possible but probable.Anybody care to make a case for decreased demand worldwide, or a reduction in the influence speculators have on the price?I would think $200/bbl by this time next year is realistic, but I would be unwinding long positions above $160 , or protecting long positions with leveraged short positions.

Good Lord. How the hell is anyone going to be able to afford $5, $6, $10 a gallon gas?I had a guy get all heated the other day saying shit like "well, you Americans have had it too good for to long anyway". WTF is that crap!?We don't have mass transit here yet ala Europe, so there is NO alternative to getting around cheaply yet. We are screwed.and this sky high oil can only damage the economy by higher costs for everything. I see the very real potential for layoffs coming as folks pull back and prices potentially going even higher for everything.My wife and I enjoy a very nice combined 6-figure income, but this trend scares the hell out of me. How are the folks making half or less what we do making it out there? Is it just me? or does it seem like the rest of the country is not all that freaked out yet?This is just crazy.

[El Guapo 8]

Good Lord. How the hell is anyone going to be able to afford $5, $6, $10 a gallon gas?I had a guy get all heated the other day saying shit like "well, you Americans have had it too good for to long anyway". WTF is that crap!?We don't have mass transit here yet ala Europe, so there is NO alternative to getting around cheaply yet. We are screwed.and this sky high oil can only damage the economy by higher costs for everything. I see the very real potential for layoffs coming as folks pull back and prices potentially going even higher for everything.My wife and I enjoy a very nice combined 6-figure income, but this trend scares the hell out of me. How are the folks making half or less what we do making it out there? Is it just me? or does it seem like the rest of the country is not all that freaked out yet?This is just crazy.

Couple things here. First one of the larger reason Oil is more expensive for us right now is the declining dollar. Also I have read a few analyst reports that 200 a barrel is as likely as 40 a barrell. So we can regress back to that price. I have no idea which way we will go.Oil is bought at discounts on futures. Right now at 130 a barrel gas should be over $7 a gallon.So it is a very complicated process.Oh yeah. Suck it OPEC!

[dms26 3]

Is it just me? or does it seem like the rest of the country is not all that freaked out yet?

I think most people are unaware or in denial about how bad it could get. I'm starting to really wish I didn't live 15 miles from work.If it gets over $5 I would think people would have to start to change some things especially if they have lower incomes, that would at least be a start to help lower demand. A bus system that doesn't blow would be nice too.

[Yoda 1]

I work from home

[El Guapo 8]

I work from home

I used to, now I am going to be commuting over 60 miles each way. Yuck.

[dms26 3]

I used to, now I am going to be commuting over 60 miles each way. Yuck.

Yikes and I'm guessing you are over $4 a gallon right now for the cheap stuff? It's 3.75 around Tampa.

[Yoda 1]

I used to, now I am going to be commuting over 60 miles each way. Yuck.

Being in the industry that you are it's probably just nice you still have a job right?

[El Guapo 8]

Yikes and I'm guessing you are over $4 a gallon right now for the cheap stuff? It's 3.75 around Tampa.

My wife paid 4.13 for Premium yesterday. Its about 3.85 for the cheap +/- but I have seen it over 4. I saw Diesel over 5 yesterday.

Being in the industry that you are it's probably just nice you still have a job right?

Why do you say that? Its not even really that bad. I am actually changing firms in two weeks and partnering with a bigger advisor and he is going lop off a portion of his book to me. Weeeeee.Take a look at this fund.http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AMANXup almost 6% in the last year.

[Yoda 1]

My wife paid 4.13 for Premium yesterday. Its about 3.85 for the cheap +/- but I have seen it over 4. I saw Diesel over 5 yesterday.Why do you say that? Its not even really that bad. I am actually changing firms in two weeks and partnering with a bigger advisor and he is going lop off a portion of his book to me. Weeeeee.Take a look at this fund.http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AMANXup almost 6% in the last year.

I guess just hearing about all the layoffs at the big firms gives you a negative view on all of it in general. What a strange fund - investments "made in accordance with islamic principals"? It seems very very very diversified, like a non targeted dividend fund. Top 10 holdings = only 15% of overall holdings. It is also interesting that they are sitting on a ton of cash - trying to time the bottom?I still freaking love CGMFX. The results don't look great YTD - but anybody pouring in money in January probably is a little bit nuts! I have near 20% returns on it this year. I just kept buying it on the big dips.

[El Guapo 8]

I guess just hearing about all the layoffs at the big firms gives you a negative view on all of it in general. What a strange fund - investments "made in accordance with islamic principals"? It seems very very very diversified, like a non targeted dividend fund. Top 10 holdings = only 15% of overall holdings. It is also interesting that they are sitting on a ton of cash - trying to time the bottom?I still freaking love CGMFX. The results don't look great YTD - but anybody pouring in money in January probably is a little bit nuts! I have near 20% returns on it this year. I just kept buying it on the big dips.

Yeah I put a client into it at the beginning of March end Feb.

[nutzbuster 7]

LOL at title, Why Gas in the U.S.A. is so cheap!And check out Venezuela. SMD!http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/01/news/inter...sion=2008050109

[Sal Paradise 57]

LOL at title, Why Gas in the U.S.A. is so cheap!And check out Venezuela. SMD!http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/01/news/inter...sion=2008050109

jesus christ, I'd just leave my truck running constantly.

[Yoda 1]

LOL at title, Why Gas in the U.S.A. is so cheap!And check out Venezuela. SMD!http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/01/news/inter...sion=2008050109

Yea isn't it awesome that we're "lucky" to have $4/gal gas? But i'm sure you've all seen the chain letter - good thing we don't fill up our cars with Gatorade, Scope, or Pepto Bismo!

[El Guapo 8]

Apparently Eritrea pissed off the wrong people in the middle east.I wonder is Sudan and Yemen drank up there Milk Shake?

[Yoda 1]

Apparently Eritrea pissed off the wrong people in the middle east.I wonder is Sudan and Yemen drank up there Milk Shake?

lol I had to look up Eritrea to see where it was - I was also surprised a country so close to the action pays so much.

[dms26 3]

Apparently Eritrea pissed off the wrong people in the middle east.I wonder is Sudan and Yemen drank up there Milk Shake?

Isn't Norway a big exporter of oil? I guess they don't keep any of it.

[Yoda 1]

Started a position in Precision Castparts again today (PCP). They make bearings, nuts, bolts etc as well as a lot of other cast material. History: I started with this stock in the high 70's and rode it up well into the 100's. If you look at a chart you can see it got ahead of itself and was even up as high as 150. I didn't get out at the top But I did sell in the 120's for a hefty profit. This turned out to be the right move, but I wish I bought back in at 100 (almost did, but market was being freakin crazy at the time). Been watching it ever since.Technicals: It's gone on a very nice run in the last 2 months - and has recently taken a pull back which I view as a good buying opportunity. Looking at the daily chart it also found support at it's 50 day moving average in the 113's. It also formed a reverse head & shoulders and has pulled back to the neckline. These are strong short term buy signals if it finds support here and rebounds - but if it continues down and breaks through it is a short term avoid signal.Indicators/Oscillators: Stochastics read oversold - Relative Strength is approaching oversold and is below neutral already.Catalyst: going forward the catalyst is the Boeing Dreamliner. They are a huge supplier for Boeing planes and the Dreamliner is finally on schedule (so it would seem). This will keep their growth going strong (and they have a ton of growth across most of their segments). I rate this a buy buy buy and my timeframe is at least 6 to 12 months.

[Dratj 0]

I bought some Citibank today.at 21.20.Thoughts Yoda?

[El Guapo 8]

I bought some Citibank today.at 21.20.Thoughts Yoda?

GOOOOO! (Not Go, but pronounced as GEW)

[Yoda 1]

I bought some Citibank today.at 21.20.Thoughts Yoda?

$40 in 12-18 months! I have faith in Vikram Pandit. You still holding Visa? Buying more at these levels?I am definitely still scurred of financials over the short term...but I started dip buying the XLF. The pain isn't gone - but once it is it will be a steadily climbing sector.