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I may double post this but why is Visa running like God?I'm tempted to sell it today, should I?I bought at 77 two days ago. At 86 now.
Make that 87 and change :club: Quite a run, quite nuts really. I kept looking for a dip to buy and it just never did. Oh how I wish I caught the earnings after hours dip, woops! It still has to dip somewhere (right?). You could consider taking half the position off and letting the rest run. If it goes up to 90+, sell the rest and hope for a dip...if it dips right away, you can get half the position back cheaper.
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Oh well - got stopped out of that short - here we are at S&P 1405 again - now the question is, do we breakthrough or hit the resistance wall again. So far it's resistance. But if we close here and get a good jobs number, off to the races.

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Nice short squeeze going on today. I just put in the order to move the wife's 401K into the double short S&P fund.
I should clarify. It wasn't the whole 401(k) I intended to move. Just the 10% (play around with) that isn't in govt and money market. AND, they seem to have gotten rid of the short option. The short I was trying to move to was short term bonds... DOh.. So, I cancelled the order and moved the money out of S&P index into cash until the next big dip is over.
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Make that 87 and change :club: Quite a run, quite nuts really. I kept looking for a dip to buy and it just never did. Oh how I wish I caught the earnings after hours dip, woops! It still has to dip somewhere (right?). You could consider taking half the position off and letting the rest run. If it goes up to 90+, sell the rest and hope for a dip...if it dips right away, you can get half the position back cheaper.
I just took my 1k and ran. I know I'll get burned if I get greedy. I'll observe for a dip and buy it back.
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Sometimes, the market stupidity is just tooooo blatent.Centex reports a $900 million loss. It has lost more than 50% of its book value in the last year. AND, the underlying fundamentals continue to get worse with fewer contracts, more cacellations and sharply dropping closings despite much, much lower prices. And the stock rises 6%.On the flip side, the builders now say they are not going to get their billion of dollars in loss carry-backs they were so hoping for. AND..... the sector as a whole climbed.Talk about a short-squeeze. DEFINATELY a sector to be shorting at this point! ITB will be back in the mid or low teens by June. By then it will be imposible to deny that the spring house selling season was a total bust for everything but post-foreclosures being liquidated at well below market... which is getting lower every day.The builders were undercutting the existing home market for awhile, but now the post-foreclosures are undercutting them.

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Oh... the builders are having problems getting new development and construction loans.... http://www.nahb.org/news_details.aspx?sect...amp;newsID=7060THAT must be whay the sector was up.Anyone still think this isn't a rigged game? Invisible hand moving the market intelligently? BUH!!! Select few controlling trillions make the markets move in unreasonable ways so they can strip the wealth from the suckers that still believe there is rhyme and reason! And when they ovrextend and get it worng, and it blows up in their face, the Fed rushes in with hundreds of billion to let them "escape". Too big to fail!HAH!!! At this point, too big to be saved!

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Wrong Way,to the exent it is rigged, I want to be involved on the right side.It's kinda like my theory about voting for Republicans. There policies generally favor those that earn more money, compared to the Democrats. I want to be rich, I don't want anti-rich sentiment to govern me.I know I don't sound educated in my post; but I'm a simple Alabama man,

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WrongWay: what, in your opinion, are the safer places to put money now? gold? govt bonds? tbills (does anybody buy these anymore? haven't heard anybody talk about them)? mutual funds? I need advice on a portfolio but I want the extremely conservative advice, no buy/sell/buy/sell crap.

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WrongWay: what, in your opinion, are the safer places to put money now? gold? govt bonds? tbills (does anybody buy these anymore? haven't heard anybody talk about them)? mutual funds? I need advice on a portfolio but I want the extremely conservative advice, no buy/sell/buy/sell crap.
Build a 3 foot think bomb shelter and put you your worldly possessions into it.
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Build a 3 foot think bomb shelter and put you your worldly possessions into it.
but the construction costs would eat up the entire portfolio! blast!
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Microsoft withdraws offer for Yahoo. Will not attempt hostile takeover.W00t!This should make my May & June MSFT 30 call options significantly more valuable :} Although everyone was talking about them withdrawing and going hostile - so I hope the market doesn't interpret any weakness in just giving up. I don't expect this though - the initial announcement of the bid brought Microsoft down like 10% and raising the offer to what YHOO wanted woulda been a disaster for share price. So I expect to see it jump right up to $31-$32/share again.

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WrongWay: what, in your opinion, are the safer places to put money now? gold? govt bonds? tbills (does anybody buy these anymore? haven't heard anybody talk about them)? mutual funds? I need advice on a portfolio but I want the extremely conservative advice, no buy/sell/buy/sell crap.
No where. I went to treasuries last July. I've since moved a portion out to money market and EuroPack bonds... But really, I dont' think anything is safe. Certainly not keeping up with real inflation.
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This was in my email inbox this morning, though AZ Republic web site where I post.Someone found your profile on azcentral.com and wanted to tell you the following: "hey Darrell, would you have any advice for me? i owe $340k on my house [address deleted by me]., surprise, az 85388. the 340k includes a equity line with ditech. should i just walk away.. i have maxed out my credit cards to pay this loan.. :club: i was a army reservist and in the national guard in 90s, so i thought about refi via va loan, but that doesn't help. now i'm unemployed. kevin [name deleted]" He gave a real address with a real name that matches. Looked him up on county recorder web site and looks like he bought a brand new house last March (2007) when builders were doing their "deal of the centruy" stuff and selling houses for more than $100K under comps. Looks like this guy bought for $260K, got an appraisal for $380K, and took on the $80K HELOC immediatly. There are several listed in his neighborhood for $240-260K and the builder is now undercutting them all in the $220K range.What advice could I possibly give? Get a lawyer and prepare for bankruptcy, like the tens or hundreds of thousands here in PHX and upto ten million across the country.Later email he told me he is in his 20s and was a mortgage broker. He thought the $80K would hold him over until the market turned and the big comissions started rolling in. Now he is realizing no such turn around is coming, ever, for that industry. What kind of job can he do that pays $10K a month or more?I told him to move back in with his parents and go to medical school.

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I suspect we have the first case of jingle mail about to occur on our little cul-de-sac here in Alabama.Home was "For Sale" back in February 07 when I bought oursIt was off the market by April 2007 (not sure how long it was for sale; but the price was never in bargain territory)Today I saw a big U-haul.Other possibilities exist; but I'm an interested observer at the moment

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I suspect we have the first case of jingle mail about to occur on our little cul-de-sac here in Alabama.
We had a house at the far end of the street from me that sat empty a good 6 months. Then the "for sale" sign came down. I wondered if it had been let go back to the bank.. then I saw a moving truck loading possession into the house. Took it off and rented it?I watched out local paper's "recent transactions" for a couple months (takes like 3-6 weeks for transactions to show up).Nope. It was sold... for only 15% below list. Then one on the next street over sold a week later, right at the same $/sqft. http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=8098406Took me 1 year to lose the first $20K in house value($270K to $250K). Then 6 months to lose the next $20K (to $230K). These two dropped in another $20K in about 6 weeks after my refi.This one just went on the market.http://azcentral.2.homescape.com/SCS/searc...el+Web%2FMLS+IDWay smaller and not as nice, but it has a pool... Big whoop! Asking $215K and no way it will sell for over $200K. http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=7911248Compare to this!http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=7911281This house and a couple like it set the top of the market just 1.5-2 years ago. Could you imagine owing $260K for a house that you're told can't be sold for anything over $200K... and falling like a rock, and at an accelerating pace?
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for some reason, my credit means a lot to me.Maybe something to do with my folks having rotten creditWhile I'm likely upside down now, as long as the payments are possible, I'd tolerate the loss of equity.Eventually, you can pay the loan off. ;)Now obviously, I'm not in the 500k loan with 350k house situation.but I do have more integrity than most and would "punish myself" well before screwing a bank/investors over

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ok, just opened a piece of mail for a 2.99% Credit Card offer for the Life of the Loan.I've had and use a 3.99% offer sent to me periodically for most of the last 4 years.This is the first 2.99%. It's from Chase.3% or $199 transaction fee.Id do it to reduce my 2nd Mortg, if I weren't watching Cash Flow right now

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ok, just opened a piece of mail for a 2.99% Credit Card offer for the Life of the Loan.I've had and use a 3.99% offer sent to me periodically for most of the last 4 years.This is the first 2.99%. It's from Chase.3% or $199 transaction fee.Id do it to reduce my 2nd Mortg, if I weren't watching Cash Flow right now
Yeah, I got 2 of those in the mail today. My balances are already at 4% or 5%, so it isn't worth double transaction fees to move the money off those cards, then move it back... But those are crazy low rates.They must be very hungry to show profits. The 3% transaction fee hits the books as instant profit even though it is a wash on cash-flow.Sacrificing long-term profit for short-term unrealized profit.
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for some reason, my credit means a lot to me.Maybe something to do with my folks having rotten creditWhile I'm likely upside down now, as long as the payments are possible, I'd tolerate the loss of equity.Eventually, you can pay the loan off. ;)Now obviously, I'm not in the 500k loan with 350k house situation.but I do have more integrity than most and would "punish myself" well before screwing a bank/investors over
You have to realize something. These are houses that can be rented for $1300 a month that people were signing up for $2300 a month mortgages for. Why? They were told it was an investment. Sure, you are losing $1000 a month, but the house will go up in price $25K-50K a year. It wasn't a place to live, it was a way to get rich, and with $0 down, it was free money!This isn't about integrity. They were gambling with other peoples' money, and lost. That is other peoples' problem!
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One last comment on these houses on my street. Let's say you don't mind owing $260K on a house worth $200K. Well, prices are still falling, and at an increasing rate. We're easily going to $150K. Maybe under the $130K where we were 5 years ago. How far upside down do you have to be before you stop punishing yourself? AND, even if these people do stay in the house for 30 years and pay it off. Well, what do they have for retirement? A house and no savings.

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things that made sense in the market today: 0things i did right today: 0guess i should feel good about myself...
I love how a company (UBS) with a market cap of 68 billion can post an 11 billion quarterly loss and be almost back to even by the end of the day.
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yeah, let's see...crude: exploding geyser, record highsstocks: bidtreasuries: crushedcurve: bidwhat in the fucking fuck imoi should be thankful i didn't lose a million dollars today

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