wsop quiz question..........

[steve7stud 0]

Thanks to those of you who chose to answer, and to those of you who read the thread as well.Hopefully, everyone will one day be faced with the dilemna of having to make the decision that I presented. Getting that far in the WSOP is a huge accomplishment,Last year during the first event in the WSOP which was a no limit hold em event. I was chip leader with about 45 minutes until the dinner break. I ended up having a lot of big hands that got cracked. And found myself down to about 4 big blinds in the period of 45 minutes. During the dinner break I felt sick. Literally. I wandered around downtown Vegas in a state of shock and confusion. I almost didn't want to come back and play. Obviously I came back and got knocked out soon after. Sorry, no happy ending.It was at that point that I questioned, did I make mistakes, was I in marginal situations, could I have played it "safe", etc.It was a great learning experience for me. As were the other events as well.The original question that I posed is a bit more complex then you might think, at least in my opinion. But, I'd rather leave that alone for right now.The purpose behind asking, was to see how important "guarenteed money" was to you. Good Luck.

[swtballa 0]

On the bubble of the main event of the WSOP.YOU are in late position with pocket Aces and have an average stack.The chip leader at your table moves all in from middle position.What do you do?

Depends how important the 'guarenteed' $12,500 is to you.If it means a lot its an easy fold because there is at least a 15% chance of busting out with nothing.Otherwise its a pretty straight forward call.

Anyone who folds in this spot shouldn't have been playing in the first place.

If you won your way in to the WSOP from a freeroll or a low buy in event and $12,500 is going to make a big difference to your life you fold...

If he moves in from middle position there is a chance he has AK where you are a 94-6 favorite, if they are suited its like 90-10. Who wouldnt take the chance>

[Spademan 94]

This is absurd. Any good tournament player will tell you that near the bubble is EXACTLY when you want to pick up as many chips as possible going into the money.Two left to act behind me? Well, I'd prefer HU with the chip leader, but if one of them does call, oh well, I'm still favored to triple up rather than just double up. boo-hoo.The only arguement is if it's a sat where the top XX go to the next round, and there is no varience in the payout."Got in on a $40 dollar and 12k is a BIG amount of money to you" is not valid.Like Socrates pointed out, if it's life changing for you you should have sold your seat in the first place.

[steve7stud 0]

This is absurd. Any good tournament player will tell you that near the bubble is EXACTLY when you want to pick up as many chips as possible going into the money.Two left to act behind me? Well, I'd prefer HU with the chip leader, but if one of them does call, oh well, I'm still favored to triple up rather than just double up. boo-hoo.The only arguement is if it's a sat where the top XX go to the next round, and there is no varience in the payout."Got in on a $40 dollar and 12k is a BIG amount of money to you" is not valid.Like Socrates pointed out, if it's life changing for you you should have sold your seat in the first place.

Umm, it's really not absurd.I'm glad that YOU personally don't care about the $12500. But a lot of other people do.Of course pro tournament players will say that the best time to pick up blinds and antes is close to the bubble. That's the time when everyone is playing the tightest. There is a reason why people are playing tight. They are trying to get into the MONEY. Most tourny pros don't care about cashing, they care about taking first. That's not the case with EVERY player.In most situations, you can't sell your seat. And if you could, plenty of people would exercise that option.For the record, I'm not one of the people who is overly concerned with cashing. When I play a tournament, I play to win.But, I never ridicule others for the choices that they make, nor should you.Good Luck.

[Spademan 94]

Umm, it's really not absurd.I'm glad that YOU personally don't care about the $12500. But a lot of other people do.Of course pro tournament players will say that the best time to pick up blinds and antes is close to the bubble. That's the time when everyone is playing the tightest. There is a reason why people are playing tight. They are trying to get into the MONEY. Most tourny pros don't care about cashing, they care about taking first. That's not the case with EVERY player.In most situations, you can't sell your seat. And if you could, plenty of people would exercise that option.For the record, I'm not one of the people who is overly concerned with cashing. When I play a tournament, I play to win.But, I never ridicule others for the choices that they make, nor should you.Good Luck.

Your question did made no note of whether or not you could sell your seat.It is absurd if you could have.Secondly, even if you could really, really use 12k, 7.5 mil would go a wee bit further, as would 1 mil for 9th, and down the line, so it STILL boarders on the absurd to fold the absolute dominant hand in this situation.So, I've changed it to 'boarders on the absurd' so as to not offend anyone's delicate sensibilites.

[greatwhite 0]

Unless your broke it is an easy call. Besides you get a free entry into the event next year if you are on the bubble. So it's like a $2,500 difference.

I don't think they gave everyone a free entry into the WSOP every time they went out on the bubble in the past. Nor should that be part of the equation.Let me take this a step further, and I will use myself as an example.I have gone out on the bubble or one or two away in several sizable tournaments. I usually would go out with Kings, Queens or Aces, and someone was trying to make a move with like Jack 5 and got there. It happens. Afterward, you naturally will feel sick.I'm not advocating one play or another. Of course I have my own opinion. But I'm sure there are plenty of people who won their seat into the 10k event that would've rather just taken the cash. When you're playing hand for hand, and you are that close to the money......essentially you are playing a winner take all on that hand. Just something to think about.I know everyone will try and make it seem like it's a real "no-brainer". And if $10-12,500 doesn't mean anything to you, then go right ahead.Again I ask the question, what would YOU do? There is no right or wrong answer.

I would play, because my risk vs reward ratio is that much higher. 10-12.5 thousand is not as good as 10,000-7.5 million and "poker imortality."

[ramble 0]

Math is the key to this. What is your expected return with a fold, what is the expected return with a call, what is the variance?With an average stack on the bubble would put you right about 100k in chips in this years ME. 219th place (based on end of day 2/4 numbers). Right between Kelly Koon and Grant Brocco. Folding gives you a 100% chance of 12k plus some % chance of making more. Koon and Brocco both went out with 18k. 18k sounds about right as the expected return on a fold.With a double up to 200k, it puts you at 56th place, right between Farzad Bonyadi and Tiffany Williamson. I got lucky with this example but it shows the value of the double up. So, basically an 80% chance of a strong chip stack with a 20% of going home with nothing. I think your expected return is above the 23k or so necesarry to make the call mathematically reasonable and while the variance increases, I think the potential of putting yourself in Bonyadi/Williamson range more than justifies the extra risk.edit: expanded the math a little bit. I took the 10 players around 100k (5 above, 5 below) and the 8 around 200k - because of a 20% chance of going out - and looked at their results. All 10 of the first group are out, ranging from 14k to 28k with a total of about 190-195k. The second group has one player who got 24k, 1 at 54k, and 6 still playing including 3 of the top 7. The two who are out plus the first of the short stacks to go out will combine for more earnings that all 10 of the first group. Calling keeps looking better and better. If all 8 had gone out between 24 and 54k, calling would still be the winning option, with the increased chance of surviving to the big money, it is a no brainer.

[AK33 0]

If I was there this year, this would be a tough spot because 12k could mean a lot. I think instinctively I would have called, there is just too much to be gained. If I lost I'd be kicking myself for sure for not playing it safe but the potential to win something great is just too high. Doubling up at this point puts you in a great chip position, likely thrusting you to the second to last day with ease. I think any good tournament player who is out there to win as well as cash calls the all in here.

[Scanner313 0]

Let say you hold AA in late postition and some dude (chip leader) goes all in pre-flop in an early position....while you're thinking about making the call he pulls a gun an puts it against your head.  Do you call?

That depends... did he say he wants me to call or he doesn't want me to call? Whatever he wants, it's an easy decision.

[Jimshoen 0]

If he has AA it most likely will be a split pot (unless four of a suit on the board) My guess is it's KK or QQ or maybe AKs. As others have said, you shouldn't be playing if you need the money to eat or pay your rent and everyone plays tighter when the cash gets close. Take a shot - that's why you paid the entry fee.Jimshoen

[shpaget 0]

I've done it before, I'd do it again.I play to win.Call call call.As the chip leader, there's a good chance he's got squat, and is just stealing the blinds and antes knowing that everyone else is playing to get into the money.He might not even have looked at his cards.I've done that as chip leader at bubble time...no, not all in, but 6 hands in a row I bet 4x the blind, without looking at my cards, and 6 hands in a row I took the blinds and antes.

[ek703 0]

If you have to have the money I guess I could understand why you would fold, but I don't think I can understand why you are PLAYING POKER. Feed the family then play poker and don't lay down ACES pre flop heads up ever... ever... ever. . unless if you see he has two jokers or the other two aces, because then he might have you dominated (sw)

[steve7stud 0]

Math is the key to this. What is your expected return with a fold, what is the expected return with a call, what is the variance?With an average stack on the bubble would put you right about 100k in chips in this years ME. 219th place (based on end of day 2/4 numbers). Right between Kelly Koon and Grant Brocco. Folding gives you a 100% chance of 12k plus some % chance of making more. Koon and Brocco both went out with 18k. 18k sounds about right as the expected return on a fold.With a double up to 200k, it puts you at 56th place, right between Farzad Bonyadi and Tiffany Williamson. I got lucky with this example but it shows the value of the double up. So, basically an 80% chance of a strong chip stack with a 20% of going home with nothing. I think your expected return is above the 23k or so necesarry to make the call mathematically reasonable and while the variance increases, I think the potential of putting yourself in Bonyadi/Williamson range more than justifies the extra risk.edit: expanded the math a little bit. I took the 10 players around 100k (5 above, 5 below) and the 8 around 200k - because of a 20% chance of going out - and looked at their results. All 10 of the first group are out, ranging from 14k to 28k with a total of about 190-195k. The second group has one player who got 24k, 1 at 54k, and 6 still playing including 3 of the top 7. The two who are out plus the first of the short stacks to go out will combine for more earnings that all 10 of the first group. Calling keeps looking better and better. If all 8 had gone out between 24 and 54k, calling would still be the winning option, with the increased chance of surviving to the big money, it is a no brainer.

Great response.