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how would you play this river?


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Yeah, sorry, backdoor flush draws are in such high % these days right? Forget about common sense!
"Fish" and maniacs love backdoor flush draws. "At least they were SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTED!"
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While I agree that fish do tend to try for flushes all the time (think of playing any two cards because they are suited), I think the CALL people are forgetting that fish love to bluff. And their favorite bluff is trying to represent a flush (mainly because appears so obious on the board). A fish could very well bet this river with nothing. I think when you factor in the amount of times fish are bluffing at this, it becomes a raise situation. (btw, a true fish might actually fold to raise. I see it all the time)
That's why I think calling is best. There are three scenarios possible:1. Fish has us beat: We likely lose an additional two bets instead after we get three bet and call.2. Fish is bluffing at us: Fish will often fold to our raise, knowing that his bluff is destroyed. Our raise doesn't get paid off.3. Fish has a hand good enough to call while still losing (two pair or a pair of aces): We make a single extra BB when fish calls us down.The core disagreement here is that some posters believe that the fish will call our raise with a worse hand twice as often as he three bets us with a better hand. I love raising for value as much as anyone. I'm just convinced that there is much actual +EV in this raise.I'd love to see someone else actually quantify the +EV of the raise. It's easy to say "Raise because you're usually way ahead", but fish catch stupid hands sometimes too. I still think calling down is ultimately best because we're in a wa/wb scenario.
This may have actually changed my opinion to just call here, and now I think I understand the point the calling people are trying to make. It's because there's no guarantee that the fish calls our raise here even when we do have him beat. If he calls the raise, there's still a chance that we are beat (and its not a longshot). If he 3-bets, we are almost certainly beat. The fish that bluffs or semi-bluffs might actually fold here assuming we have the flush.I hate it when my own words are used against me :club:
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Fish can love 7-2 offsuit, but let's be reasonable here, it aint happening, not on this hand.
Fish do not often use reason, especially if they flop something horrible like bottom pair with backdoor flush draw.
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This may have actually changed my opinion to just call here, and now I think I understand the point the calling people are trying to make. It's because there's no guarantee that the fish calls our raise here even when we do have him beat. If he calls the raise, there's still a chance that we are beat (and its not a longshot). If he 3-bets, we are almost certainly beat. The fish that bluffs or semi-bluffs might actually fold here assuming we have the flush.I hate it when my own words are used against me :club:
Kudos for getting the other side of the argument. I see a lot of sense in raising here too, since fish often do call down with just a pair of aces. It's just hard to know exactly whether the EV line sits with these morons. If you know a fish would always call when beaten and would always three bet when ahead of you AND that you were ahead 75% of the time or more, you are raising for value. It's not just as simple as "I have the best hand most of the time, therefore I raise". I'm bummed that so many of the pro-raising crowd didn't objectively evaluate these three conditions.Sorry I had to use your words against you. You just made such an eloquent point that I couldn't let it go neglected. :-)
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The lies are really building up.Your opinion of me is about as valued on this board as a Hitler pinata at a Mossad company picnic..
when proffesional writers argue w/ people..it makes me smile :club:
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The lies are really building up.Your opinion of me is about as valued on this board as a Hitler pinata at a Mossad company picnic..
when proffesional writers argue w/ people..it makes me smile :club:
Yeah, but when 3 of our best posters argue, causing them to want to, or actually leave, it makes me sad.
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The lies are really building up.Your opinion of me is about as valued on this board as a Hitler pinata at a Mossad company picnic..
when proffesional writers argue w/ people..it makes me smile :club:
Yeah, but when 3 of our best posters argue, causing them to want to, or actually leave, it makes me sad.
When one of our posters wants to leave over a debate like this, I tend to think he's got bigger issues to deal with at the moment.If a healthy discussion about value raising on the river is enough to send someone packing, c'est la vie.
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The lies are really building up.Your opinion of me is about as valued on this board as a Hitler pinata at a Mossad company picnic..
when proffesional writers argue w/ people..it makes me smile :club:
Yeah, but when 3 of our best posters argue, causing them to want to, or actually leave, it makes me sad.
true...
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Fish can love 7-2 offsuit, but let's be reasonable here, it aint happening, not on this hand.
Fish do not often use reason, especially if they flop something horrible like bottom pair with backdoor flush draw.
What makes him a fish?
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Fish can love 7-2 offsuit, but let's be reasonable here, it aint happening, not on this hand.
Fish do not often use reason, especially if they flop something horrible like bottom pair with backdoor flush draw.
What makes him a fish?
The OP's description of him based on the PT stats he had on the guy at the time.Not going to flame you for that...that was several pages ago.
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The lies are really building up.Your opinion of me is about as valued on this board as a Hitler pinata at a Mossad company picnic..
when proffesional writers argue w/ people..it makes me smile :club:
Yeah, but when 3 of our best posters argue, causing them to want to, or actually leave, it makes me sad.
When one of our posters wants to leave over a debate like this, I tend to think he's got bigger issues to deal with at the moment.If a healthy discussion about value raising on the river is enough to send someone packing, c'est la vie.
its not this.what does he have to gain?he only posted here to help people, and when he goes out of his way to explain it over and over again, and people still dont get it, whats the point?two weeks ago this would have been a half page discussion.its still a raise.
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its not this.what does he have to gain?he only posted here to help people, and when he goes out of his way to explain it over and over again, and people still dont get it, whats the point?two weeks ago this would have been a half page discussion.its still a raise.
Picking up your ball and going home when people have the nerve to try to debate the other side on argument is weak/tight.I'll miss wrto's insights a lot (if he actually stays away). I learned a lot from his posts. I'm not going to just accept everything he says at face value though. I don't learn very well that way.It's just poker.
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Yeah, and why waste time posting on a poker forum that doesn't embrace the easily correct plays?Doesn't drink the 2+2 koolaide really. Even if it is the correct play, it's a lot closer than anyone seems to realize.

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Even if it is the correct play, it's a lot closer than anyone seems to realize.Did you just admit you were wrong? :shock:

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Did you just admit you were wrongNo such luck.Just done with arguing it.Either way it's not a "standard" play or really a frequent enough situation to matter much at all.I have less than 1000 simmilar hands in my PT database.

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 Even if it is the correct play, it's a lot closer than anyone seems to realize.
are you admitting something? [sw]about the wrto thing, the guy clearly knew his shit, just like smash does...if u love em or hate 'em, you cant ignore that...honestly I'm barely at the tip of the Ice Berg when it comes to limit hold'em, If I'm a bit better than a break even player, its just cuz the game is so easy to beat ( I remember reading a Malmuth(sp?) article where he said skill is only a factor now, in making money off poker. because its gotten so easy). Anyway I try to learn and take in most of what these posters say, if there is a 3 or four page arguement about a certain play, it means that its usually about something important, so I (and I'm sure most of the less experienced players) pay close attention. You know, this forum, doesnt come CLOSE to the knowledge that other forums have, but, I like this one, and I like to see that most of us are learning and making progress together. I hate to see one of the "good" posters leave, I hope he comes back. But I also hope that someone will realize that poker can be played many different ways, Im sure theres people out there who crush the 3/6 game with Lee Jones' or Helmuth's advice, SSHE and any other theory anyone else has is NOT the gospel truth, just like a lot of the time when a play is argued it is NOT the only way to play it.. Dan Harrington and Gus Hansen are two very different players yet they are both successful thats the beauty of the game...JMO though..
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