how would you play this river?

[cdddc75 0]

actually a set is impossiblea fish 3bet PF with 1010, KK, or AA.if he has 33, he plays much differently obviously.if he has 55 he doesnt lead the turn.so rule out the setsthe ONLY backdoor flush possibilities here I think are 910 and Q10 and maybe a few other oddball ones.we are ahead 75% of the time.

One problem with this line of thinking: You are assuming that our opponent is always competent. At this risk of being results oriented, some people bet out Q5 offsuit on the turn and river here. I wouldn't and you wouldn't, but some people do.If they can lead out the last two streets with crap, they sure could limp preflop with the big pocket pairs or lead the turn and river with 33 or 55.If the guy is really stupid, he might stop and go with a straight or a flush draw.

[Absolute 0]

Here is a small sample of hands the villian could hold given how he played the hand.I don't think a set is within the range of realistic possibilities, unless he played with his eyes closed.also the villian does not have JQ here, he is 3betting the turn.nor does he have 24, as hed fold on the flop. if he is a horrible fish, he might have 42s.backdoor flushes are all thats beating you here, and i only think a few holdings are realistic here, but im sure some of you will come up with creative ones.there are 8-10 hands (tops) the villian could hold that are ahead

[Absolute 0]

actually a set is impossiblea fish 3bet PF with 1010, KK, or AA.if he has 33, he plays much differently obviously.if he has 55 he doesnt lead the turn.so rule out the setsthe ONLY backdoor flush possibilities here I think are 910 and Q10 and maybe a few other oddball ones.we are ahead 75% of the time.

One problem with this line of thinking: You are assuming that our opponent is always competent. At this risk of being results oriented, some people bet out Q5 offsuit on the turn and river here. I wouldn't and you wouldn't, but some people do.If they can lead out the last two streets with crap, they sure could limp preflop with the big pocket pairs or lead the turn and river with 33 or 55.If the guy is really stupid, he might stop and go with a straight or a flush draw.

fish dont do that very often

[Absolute 0]

I rephrase.20 realistic holdings.How many realistic holdings are you beating when he bets out here.Try thinking *before* posting some inane pointless wrong comment this time.See how that goes for once.

It's good to see you are falling in to your old habit of throwing rocks out of the hole you have dug for yourself.How about we post this hand at 2+2?There is a good group of them that clearly know more about Limit Hold'em than you or I.I will put $50 that the general consensus is to raise the river? (We can even restrict the answers that count to those who reply and have at least 500 posts)Care to wager?

[princeof56k 0]

When looking at possible holdings, a 10x (both being spades) is not unreasonable. The guy makes middle pair on the flop with a backdoor flush draw so he just calls. Then when the Ace of spades hits the turn he improved his draw and bets in a bluff trying to win it right there by represnting an Ace. Then bets on the river when his flush hits. I know thats not what he had, but this senario is not unreasonable.

[Smasharoo 0]

People 3-bet pre-flop with any pocket pair ALL the time.Not to mention Axs, JQs, etc etc.Stop trying to backfill the gaping holes in your argument by changing the situation untill what your making starts to make any sense.There are some valid reasons for raising this river, but you haven't stumbled across any yet.

[cdddc75 0]

Here is a small sample of hands the villian could hold given how he played the hand.I don't think a set is within the range of realistic possibilities, unless he played with his eyes closed.also the villian does not have JQ here, he is 3betting the turn.nor does he have 24, as hed fold on the flop. if he is a horrible fish, he might have 42s.backdoor flushes are all thats beating you here, and i only think a few holdings are realistic here, but im sure some of you will come up with creative ones.there are 8-10 hands (tops) the villian could hold that are ahead

Fair enough. How many realistic hands does the villain hold that will call your raise?AK = chopNine other two pair hands.Assuming we get three bet by all realistic hands that are ahead, raising this river would have an EV of approximately -0.50 BB.

[Absolute 0]

People 3-bet pre-flop with any pocket pair ALL the time.Not to mention Axs, JQs, etc etc.Stop trying to backfill the gaping holes in your argument by changing the situation untill what your making starts to make any sense.There are some valid reasons for raising this river, but you haven't stumbled across any yet.

exactly, which is why this villian has no set here.whats your point? or are you having difficulty reading?i have stated numerous times that the only hand beating you here is a flush.

[Smasharoo 0]

I will put $50 that the general consensus is to raise the river? (We can even restrict the answers that count to those who reply and have at least 500 posts)Care to wager?On the oppinions of random message board posters? No thanks. I'm sure the consensus would be to raise it. It's the easy play. It's also wrong.

[Absolute 0]

I will put $50 that the general consensus is to raise the river? (We can even restrict the answers that count to those who reply and have at least 500 posts)Care to wager?On the oppinions of random message board posters? No thanks. I'm sure the consensus would be to raise it. It's the easy play. It's also wrong.

Random posters?How about if we just chose ten posters whose advice we both feel is solid. I am sure you lurk there enough to know ten good players.Or are you avoiding this?It's not wrong.You are ahead enough to to make this the correct play, especially against a fish.

[Smasharoo 0]

exactly, which is why this villian has no set here.whats your point? or are you having difficulty reading? Should probably read my post again, then edit yours before the laughter starts.

[Absolute 0]

I'm done arguing.You are wrong.You can just call, I don't care.I am sure you just call often in your imaginary 3/6 game on Party.But if you want to get inflammatory and offensive, one could argue that you have a history of giving weak/tight advice.But congratulations on your 3BB/100. Just think, a few kinks and it could be 3.1 .I am sure your sample size is around what, 5K hands.id like to see your PT stats.

[Smasharoo 0]

You are ahead enough to to make this the correct play, especially against a fish.This is exactly why you aren't.Because he's a fish.I have an idea. Let's you and me play a few thousand hands untill the situation comes up and I'll decide if I should raise or not.That'll give us a realistic look at it.

[Smasharoo 0]

I am sure your sample size is around what, 5K hands.Only off by about 495,000.That's actually pretty close for you. You ussually miss things much worse.since your done can we use the rest of the thread to just make fun of how clueless your posts are?

[cdddc75 0]

I'm done arguing.You are wrong.

Show Smash the math to prove he's wrong then.You haven't proven it using hypothetical guesses.

[Smasharoo 0]

But if you want to get inflammatory and offensive, one could argue that you have a history of giving weak/tight advice. sure could. Funny thing is I kill games that the people who cal me weak tight barely beat.allways found that odd.Just lucky I guess.

[cdddc75 0]

It's not wrong.You are ahead enough to to make this the correct play, especially against a fish.

You're not ahead of enough hands that will call a raise to make it profitable, given the 8-10 hands you admit will crush our two pair.

[NickTheKid 0]

I will put $50 that the general consensus is to raise the river? (We can even restrict the answers that count to those who reply and have at least 500 posts)Care to wager?On the oppinions of random message board posters? No thanks. I'm sure the consensus would be to raise it. It's the easy play. It's also wrong.

That's a pretty arrogant thing too say, Smash. 2+2 is a very educated forum and is a good place to trust skillfull play and theory.

[Smasharoo 0]

That's a pretty arrogant thing too say, Smash. 2+2 is a very educated forum and is a good place to trust skillfull play and theorySure it is.That doesn't mean the popular oppinion there is right. In fact, it's often not.Win 1/ Lose 2 raises heads up are a major leak for a lot of players, even pretty good ones. If you were getting more value here the raise would be a lot better. If there was another player between you and him it would be a no brainer.

[PrtyPSux 0]

has anyone posted this on 2+2? I'd like to see what they say..

[cdddc75 0]

That's a pretty arrogant thing too say, Smash. 2+2 is a very educated forum and is a good place to trust skillfull play and theorySure it is.That doesn't mean the popular oppinion there is right. In fact, it's often not.Win 1/ Lose 2 raises heads up are a major leak for a lot of players, even pretty good ones. If you were getting more value here the raise would be a lot better. If there was another player between you and him it would be a no brainer.

[Absolute 0]

2+2 is easily the best place for Poker Strategy on the internet.If we all wanted a good laugh, we could post some of Smash's old race posts in the SSHE section there.I think everyone would soon realize that all that glitters is not gold.I am done.Insult me per your wishes now.There is no "math" here until we have stats on the villian, and I am sure Smash would argue a raise against certain opponents, whereas I always argue a raise. Maybe stats would be helpful, there are plenty varieties of "fish".But we both know we are right, so I am done.I am plenty sick of arguing with you altogether.So from now on, I will just read past what you say.I hope things get better with your wife, and I hope you loosen up some.I'm swayze.

[Smasharoo 0]

has anyone posted this on 2+2? I'd like to see what they say..That it's an easy value raise.I don't think anyone's arguing what most 2+2 posters would say about it.

[Smasharoo 0]

So from now on, I will just read past what you say. Boy, that'd be great.Good that you've decided I'm weak tight and my advice is bad.I wonder how I beat games.I should probably buy some lottery tickets, I must be the luckiest guy in the world.

[wrto4556 0]

holy cow, why is this being argued. What does the turn bet tell us? That he picked up something...Most of the time, it's a pair of aces. I would say 70%. Other times he picks up a draw with a straight or flush and there are still other times he has mid pair and is representing the ace.First, if he is aggressive enough to bet a draw, he is aggressive enough to stop and go with a worse hand than ours over 75% of the time.Raise the river, and it's not even close.