serge 904 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The system seems to be most accurate when betting dogs. So today the only real play would be Dallas +5. Sigh. I wish you posted that before I bet all of them. Lol Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I don't watch basketball or gamble so I'm just brainstorming outside the box here My outside of the box "gut" play is the HAbs +205! Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 My outside of the box "gut" play is the HAbs +205! Good luck! Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 1-0 Habs Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I feel like Vegas' line would be more accurate, since I usually assume they are super smart and discrepancies would reflect minute differences, like a guy who is not totally healthy or a plane got in late or whatever. Then again, Vegas has to adjust for things like if too much money is on a side or there is a strong (false) public perception...so I have no idea. It does seem like there should be no reason that a line 4 above is no more or less accurate than 4 below, so overal there would be value in betting a dog in those scenarios. Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I feel like Vegas' line would be more accurate, since I usually assume they are super smart and discrepancies would reflect minute differences, like a guy who is not totally healthy or a plane got in late or whatever. Then again, Vegas has to adjust for things like if too much money is on a side or there is a strong (false) public perception...so I have no idea. It does seem like there should be no reason that a line 4 above is no more or less accurate than 4 below, so overal there would be value in betting a dog in those scenarios. My true feeling is these are the real lines that Oddsmakers get before they make it public. They will than adjust the line where they think they will get 1 sided action. I am very excited to follow this in baseball where if a team has a greater than 50% chance to win and is getting plus money I will ride it. Or go the opposite if I feel Vegas is sharper in predicting who will win. I am still very much on the fence with which way to go but so far it seems like elo knows better. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 My true feeling is these are the real lines that Oddsmakers get before they make it public. They will than adjust the line where they think they will get 1 sided action. I am very excited to follow this in baseball where if a team has a greater than 50% chance to win and is getting plus money I will ride it. Or go the opposite if I feel Vegas is sharper in predicting who will win. I am still very much on the fence with which way to go but so far it seems like elo knows better. Very interesting angle. Do they do it for hockey? Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The system seems to be most accurate when betting dogs. So today the only real play would be Dallas +5. sure. NOW you tell me. Dont worry, Im gonna jinx all 5 anyway. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 sure. NOW you tell me. Dont worry, Im gonna jinx all 5 anyway. Me too Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Elo NFL predictions were back tested and they "outperformed" Vegas lines, but not by enough to beat the vig. I think elo can definitely be useful but you also have to know your stuff. For instance, if Steph curry is injured, elo odds will not reflect that whatsoever, whereas Vegas odds will adjust accordingly. Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Elo NFL predictions were back tested and they "outperformed" Vegas lines, but not by enough to beat the vig. I think elo can definitely be useful but you also have to know your stuff. For instance, if Steph curry is injured, elo odds will not reflect that whatsoever, whereas Vegas odds will adjust accordingly. Thanks Dubey, I am hoping for more info on this system that's why I am posting it. Last 10 days its been on fire for basketball. Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 My outside of the box "gut" play is the HAbs +205! Forget Elo. I like Sev better Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Forget Elo. I like Sev better Elo wasn't bad either 2 wins and a push right now. Free rolling last 2 games. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 so far I have 2 wins, 2 losses. were the raptors a push for you? I lost, bet365 had them at -9.5. Kerry Joseph missed the free throw with 8sec left to cost me my bet, which was bigger on the Raps then any of the others, so unless I get this next game ill be a loser on the night, though not by much. cool theory though, and an entertaining night for me of following out of town NBA scores. Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Yes Bet365 had Raps -9.5. That Joseph miss was gross. It did not even look like an attempt. It was way off. Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 todays elo picks are suns -1.5 and pelicans +5.5 Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 no gut plays today. Link to post Share on other sites
iBeaver 409 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I need plays got tonight. Bovado sent me $ and I need to bet $80 more to unlock it all. Up $24. Just been betting crap like LAK over EDM which made my butt clench. Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I need plays got tonight. Bovado sent me $ and I need to bet $80 more to unlock it all. Up $24. Just been betting crap like LAK over EDM which made my butt clench. We should go to greektown. You are money 1 Link to post Share on other sites
iBeaver 409 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I rarely have fun betting stories. I had $25 on Bovado from back when it was Bodog and blew through that quickly by betting and poker. Last week I got an email saying they sent me $10 to play around with so I was excited because I wanted to make some bets. Found out I had 7 days to unlock the bonus by betting $90. So I went all in the first game and second game. Processed to bet 8 times after and only lost 1 $5 bet. Last night I needed to get $22 to unlock it before I lost it. Talked to my betting coach and he went big in Milwaukee ml. I was scared so I put $5 on Pitt, $5 on TB, $5 on NYR and $7 on Milwaukee. I now regret not just putting $22 on a parlay lol. So I've unlocked it by going 13 out of 14 I believe. I got it up to $62.70. Now it's time to lose it all. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Love to know who your betting coach is!!! The mtt s on Bovada are pretty soft. Link to post Share on other sites
iBeaver 409 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Love to know who your betting coach is!!! The mtt s on Bovada are pretty soft. Biatch He only offered up 1 of those 14 bets but it was a good one. Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Go Beaver Go Link to post Share on other sites
iBeaver 409 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I hate politics. Let's bet. What are some good games to bet on today? Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Well you have a bunch of ****ing annoying Canadians talking about your election, so it seems cathartic to bet against a bunch of Canadian NHL teams. Philly, TB, San Jose, Buffalo, Minnesota, LA Kings. All 6 are in action! You can bet on the Blackhawks too, since they are playing Boston, who's leading scorer is a particularly annoying Canadian. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
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