MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 oh ya btw if Leicester City wins the Premier league at 5000-1 it will be the longest long shot to ever win anything period! Same odds are if Elvis is found alive! were they really 5000-1? Really? Im going to smack Biatch next time I see him, he inspired me to put down $20 on Liverpool....when I could have had $10k win on Leicester? CRAP! 2 Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Why keep betting on them as the price gets worse? Man up and put all the money down in the first place. The thread is called "Degenerate Gambler" I dont post in the "How I manned up" thread Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I like Chris' idea. Also, I liked Dannys bet on Tampa, I think 78 is low for them but I dont know where Danny got that number from because none of the sites I know had that up yet. I like betting on one or two teams in baseball and football with total wins, gives me an added team to root for. My bets purely came from the article, and I didn't notice where they got their odds so I didn't verify. Probably bovada or something, though I'm sure the TB and Schwarber bets will get worse by the time they're widely available. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Its not that I don't like the bet, in the weak NL I could only think of Stanton, Braun, Arenado (Coors field bias), Frazier, and Goldschmidt. Anyways I am a huge Schwarber fan, first time I saw him play I bbmed my group of friends and said check out this farm boy from the Cubs he just crushes the ball! I think this is true, though didn't Frazier get traded? Anyway, I think it's an MLB bet, not just NL. Also, as per the link I posted, Milwaukee has a much stronger homer park factor these days than Coors (Coors still above average of course) Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I think this is true, though didn't Frazier get traded? Anyway, I think it's an MLB bet, not just NL. Also, as per the link I posted, Milwaukee has a much stronger homer park factor these days than Coors (Coors still above average of course) Forgot Frazier got traded to the White Sox. Funny thing about Coors field is you never know what batch of balls are in play. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Forgot Frazier got traded to the White Sox. Funny thing about Coors field is you never know what batch of balls are in play. Lmao I swear you say things like that purposely to make me crazy. Fwiw, though we think of things on the opposite ends of the spectrum, I'm happy to admit that you are often right, or at least close enough Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Lmao I swear you say things like that purposely to make me crazy. Fwiw, though we think of things on the opposite ends of the spectrum, I'm happy to admit that you are often right, or at least close enough I was referring to the humidors they installed a few years ago. Back in the day every game at Coors field would have over unders of 14.5-16.5. When they installed the humidor for the balls all of a sudden books adjusted and totals were 9.5-10.5. Not all balls used are humidor balls so certain times you will see those crazy games again which I miss. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Lmao I swear you say things like that purposely to make me crazy. Fwiw, though we think of things on the opposite ends of the spectrum, I'm happy to admit that you are often right, or at least close enough I Should have also mentioned I read pretty much everything you write and respect your opinion. I found a very interesting system that I am following this year in baseball, if it has any substance I will report back, you will love it. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Will be taking Otto to his first casino as an adult tomorrow. 2 very good friends of mine are coming too. We are going to have dinner at the buffet and than hit the tables. Probably will not play poker. I am going to give Otto a limit of $300 for him to lose. We are back from Port Perry. We hit the buffet at 7:30 pm. Honestly the Prime Rib was really good. The unfortunate part is that I actually felt sick because of the weak stomach and had to run to the toilet before we hit the tables. Also when I asked for the bill the waitress made an error and only charge us a party of 3. I told her she gave us the wrong receipt and it should be a party of 4. She thank me profusely and paid for our party since it was a going out party for Otto. We walk around shortly after my toilet trip and found a table. I told Otto to take the first seat and I sat to his left to make sure he plays properly. My 2 buddies played to my left. I staked Otto for $200 to start and I also did for myself ($25 bets). Honestly Otto won 5 straight hands while I was playing crap. We played for about 2 hours. Otto must have hit 7-8 blackjacks during that time. The hot Indian dealer was really sweet on him since she knew he was a newbie. At 9:30 I thought we should leave while we were up. One buddy lost $70, my other friend won $425, I won $225 and Otto won $500. Yes he won $500 playing blackjack. I then go to the washroom to get a pic of Otto holding his chips. I text it to my wife and she had no clue what the purple chip was. We walked around the slots and played the poker one. I hate slots and let Otto play. We quit after he won $8. We than walked over to the roulette table and I played black for $25 and it hit. Afterwards I really felt sick and a few trips to the washroom. We decide to call it a night. So quite a night for Otto on his first trip to a casino. I told him it is not that easy to win at a casino but he did really well. I am going to try and give him some poker lessons so we can at least play at a table together. 4 Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 This is a sick story. I'm very happy for Otto. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 and so it begins for Otto, the life of ups and downs with casino gambling! Wouldn't trade it for anything! 1 Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I Should have also mentioned I read pretty much everything you write and respect your opinion. I found a very interesting system that I am following this year in baseball, if it has any substance I will report back, you will love it. That's good to hear, thanks! Looking forward to hearing about the system...if it works. In regard to the humidors, I'm totally with you on that, though not sure what you mean by not all balls being humidor balls... Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Can't find it now, but someone tweeted that the Vegas lines are up, and that the Nationals, Mets and Dodgers all had o/u of 89.5. If that's true, I'd take a hard under on the Mets. They have some awesome pitchers, but not much offense and with all those young flamethrowers, they aren't all going to get 200 innings or anything close. If you really want to hedge, about 100 things would have to go wrong for the Mets to be better than the Dodgers this year. Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Okay for those that gamble on a regular basis this is what I've been following for the past few months in basketball. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2015-16-nba-predictions-work/ The original formula is based on Arpad Elo's chess ranking system. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system So espn has combined his system as well as some of there own to create this amazing formula. How amazing is it? They have the point spread for every game from start to end of the season. How accurate is it, on most nights the Carm-elo odds are dead on with Vegas. So what would you do Vegas has Raptors -9 while Elo pegs them at -13 favs. Do you trust Vegas is smarter and has adjusted the line or is there value taking the Raptors tonight because of the 4 point discrepancy. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 How often has there been such a discrepancy...and who's been more accurate? Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 How often has there been such a discrepancy...and who's been more accurate? maybe 10 a week, but today we have 5 of them. Vegas Elo Raptors -9 -13 OKC -5 -1.5 Memphis -8.5 -13 Bulls -1.5 -6 Clippers -10.5 -14 Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 maybe 10 a week, but today we have 5 of them. Vegas Elo Raptors -9 -13 OKC -5 -1.5 Memphis -8.5 -13 Bulls -1.5 -6 Clippers -10.5 -14 Wow. What are past performances like elo more accurate? Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 In the Nfl during the playoffs the 2 lines that were more than 3 off were Den was -2 vs New England. Books had New England -3 For the superbowl the system had Carolina -2.5 while the books had it at -5.5. I only wait for games that are 3 points or more to be considered significant. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 What is the over/under on those 5 games? 1 Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 What is the over/under on those 5 games? Why would that matter? This is about winning. Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Why would that matter? This is about winning. Does vegas or the system tend to be more accurate when the game is lower-scoring? Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I don't watch basketball or gamble so I'm just brainstorming outside the box here 1 Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I like where Dale is going, interesting thoughts, love outside the box thinkers. Im always intrigued by your posts Sev. And I DO watch basketball and I certainly gamble, so....Im on all 5. Lets see how it goes, I knew Id be watching a lot of tonights Raptors game anyway (Wiggins+Towns!) 1 Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I like where Dale is going, interesting thoughts, love outside the box thinkers. Im always intrigued by your posts Sev. And I DO watch basketball and I certainly gamble, so....Im on all 5. Lets see how it goes, I knew Id be watching a lot of tonights Raptors game anyway (Wiggins+Towns!) Good now I have someone to blame when the system goes mush!!!!! Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Does vegas or the system tend to be more accurate when the game is lower-scoring? The system seems to be most accurate when betting dogs. So today the only real play would be Dallas +5. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now