mrdannyg 274 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 After some non-exhaustive searching, I can't find enough information to agree or disagree with the assertion that Wrigley is a worse place to hit homers early in the year compared to later, though it is certainly consistent with the general theory that there are more homers hit in the later months than in April/May, though I'm not sure how much that relates to the players vs. the weather. As it pertains to Schwarber, Wrigley seems to be about an average place to hit homers overall, and whether he hits them early or late shouldn't matter to the bet : ) Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 After some non-exhaustive searching, I can't find enough information to agree or disagree with the assertion that Wrigley is a worse place to hit homers early in the year compared to later, though it is certainly consistent with the general theory that there are more homers hit in the later months than in April/May, though I'm not sure how much that relates to the players vs. the weather. As it pertains to Schwarber, Wrigley seems to be about an average place to hit homers overall, and whether he hits them early or late shouldn't matter to the bet : ) Pre all star break Cubs hit 77 homers in 2944 at bats 1 out of every 38 at bats. Post all star break Cubs hit 94 homers in 2547 at bats 1 out of every 27 at bats. Danny just look at all the 6.5 and 7.5 over unders in April, May and June. Once July hits same pitchers on the mound and the over unders are 10.5. That's why what Arrieta did was even more amazing because he did that in Wrigley in the second half of the season. I've always said I am not a math guy when I make my picks, I rely on gut feel, human psychology, and history. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well in the Cubs case, they had different players in the second half of the season (didn't Schwarber only come up in June?) And I know that, as a general rule, more runs are scored in July/August than April/May (September is its own weird thing), but wanted to know if hitting homers in Wrigley was even more effected than the general trend. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I've always said I am not a math guy when I make my picks, I rely on gut feel, human psychology, and history. Pre all star break Cubs hit 77 homers in 2944 at bats 1 out of every 38 at bats. Post all star break Cubs hit 94 homers in 2547 at bats 1 out of every 27 at bats. Your gut sure knows a lot of numbers! 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Your gut sure knows a lot of numbers! And ice cream Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well in the Cubs case, they had different players in the second half of the season (didn't Schwarber only come up in June?) And I know that, as a general rule, more runs are scored in July/August than April/May (September is its own weird thing), but wanted to know if hitting homers in Wrigley was even more effected than the general trend. Its not that I don't like the bet, in the weak NL I could only think of Stanton, Braun, Arenado (Coors field bias), Frazier, and Goldschmidt. Anyways I am a huge Schwarber fan, first time I saw him play I bbmed my group of friends and said check out this farm boy from the Cubs he just crushes the ball! Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Your gut sure knows a lot of numbers! Stop acting like a condescending millennial! You know what I should have looked up was a quote from sweet Lou in 2007 or 2008 when asked why are the Cubs struggling to score runs. His answer see me when he humidity kicks in you know how Wrigley plays. Something like that. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Stop acting like a condescending millennial! You know what I should have looked up was a quote from sweet Lou in 2007 or 2008 when asked why are the Cubs struggling to score runs. His answer see me when he humidity kicks in you know how Wrigley plays. Something like that. lol, I wasnt trying to call you out, I was actually saying, I think you know a lot more than just "hey, lets bet $50 on this cause I feel like it". You know your shit. I think you might not analyze some stuff as much as DannyG does, but Im sure you analyze and have experience with quite a bit of betting, way more than the average gambler for sure. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'm pretty sure I've been captain of the Kyle Schwarber fan club since I drafted him #1 overall in the FCBL farm draft 2 years ago. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 lol, I wasnt trying to call you out, I was actually saying, I think you know a lot more than just "hey, lets bet $50 on this cause I feel like it". You know your shit. I think you might not analyze some stuff as much as DannyG does, but Im sure you analyze and have experience with quite a bit of betting, way more than the average gambler for sure. A handful of people can call me a bag of shit on this site you being 1 of them, and I would never take it personally. Danny is right though I spit shit out of my mouth all the time with no facts to back it up. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think there's something to be said for gut instinct. The problem is gut instinct is very fleeting...it comes and goes very quickly when the brain kicks in. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I like the Schwarber bet too. Let's all Put in $25 or $50 so we can sweat a massive bet that would be no different than us doing it individually but way more impressive on a ticket. Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I like the Schwarber bet too. Let's all Put in $25 or $50 so we can sweat a massive bet that would be no different than us doing it individually but way more impressive on a ticket. Who has this bet available? Iam in! Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I can place the bet in a Vegas book if you guys want. Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I can place the bet in a Vegas book if you guys want. I didn't see it at Ceasars yet. I think it goes up in March, not sure if they offer League bet or Majors bet. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I like Chris' idea. Also, I liked Dannys bet on Tampa, I think 78 is low for them but I dont know where Danny got that number from because none of the sites I know had that up yet. I like betting on one or two teams in baseball and football with total wins, gives me an added team to root for. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 As an aside to all this, every year I bet on 1 or 2 teams to win the Cup, and usually place my bet just before playoffs. Ive hit on a couple of "longshots" (PIT, LAK) and gotten a couple of others to the finals (NYR, Tampa last 2yrs). I like to think I use my gut too, but also with a team like LAK, it was when I had first started to look at adv stats, and even though they were a #8 seed, their stats were tops. This year I started early on one team, because I thought they were really undervalued and were sort of my pick at the start of the year. I went with Anaheim, and I bet them at 23-1, 20-1, 18-1 and then 15-1 last night just as the Anaheim game was a period old. Today its 12-1. all with bet365. Its cool watching the odds go lower and lower, and Im not sure 12-1 is that great a bet considering the crap shoot that is the Western Conference, but I still like Anaheim as a good possibility if Getzlaf+Perry keep up their resurgence, and if they have a good trade deadline, ie get a guy like Ladd. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 As an aside to all this, every year I bet on 1 or 2 teams to win the Cup, and usually place my bet just before playoffs. Ive hit on a couple of "longshots" (PIT, LAK) and gotten a couple of others to the finals (NYR, Tampa last 2yrs). I like to think I use my gut too, but also with a team like LAK, it was when I had first started to look at adv stats, and even though they were a #8 seed, their stats were tops. This year I started early on one team, because I thought they were really undervalued and were sort of my pick at the start of the year. I went with Anaheim, and I bet them at 23-1, 20-1, 18-1 and then 15-1 last night just as the Anaheim game was a period old. Today its 12-1. all with bet365. Its cool watching the odds go lower and lower, and Im not sure 12-1 is that great a bet considering the crap shoot that is the Western Conference, but I still like Anaheim as a good possibility if Getzlaf+Perry keep up their resurgence, and if they have a good trade deadline, ie get a guy like Ladd. I have them at 20-1 bet them in mid December. They look good. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Why keep betting on them as the price gets worse? Man up and put all the money down in the first place. Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Why keep betting on them as the price gets worse? Man up and put all the money down in the first place. An AHL owner who gives sports betting advice won a very large sum by making multiple bets during the season on Miami the year they won the World Series. He bet them to win both the National League and Series. some of his bets were at better than 100-1 Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The best futures I've hit was SF Giants 2012 WS got it at 22-1 I think. While I was in Vegas I kept looking at Pitt 28-1 for the cup and 14-1 to win the East. I chickened out and bet the Jays at 15-1 for $300. Can't wait to post that ticket on here in October! Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 oh ya btw if Leicester City wins the Premier league at 5000-1 it will be the longest long shot to ever win anything period! Same odds are if Elvis is found alive! Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 An AHL owner who gives sports betting advice won a very large sum by making multiple bets during the season on Miami the year they won the World Series. He bet them to win both the National League and Series. some of his bets were at better than 100-1 this was the 2003 Marlins Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 oh ya btw if Leicester City wins the Premier league at 5000-1 it will be the longest long shot to ever win anything period! Same odds are if Elvis is found alive! so you're saying that Elvis still has a chance Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 so you're saying that Elvis still has a chance in 12 games we'll find out! Link to post Share on other sites
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